Welcome back to our weekly article, where we highlight fifteen players/units that you should definitely make a move on, or in some cases, avoid like the plague. If you’re a weekly subscriber to this column, then last week there were plenty of helpful suggestions to help you rule your weekend. It was a great week for my Sleepers, with Ryan Fitzpatrick (390 yards, 2 TD), Thomas Rawls (123 all-purpose yards, 1 TD), and even DeVante Parker (63 yards, 1 TD) all showing up in a MAJOR WAY!!! Not mention, Brandon Marshall (131 yards, 1 TD), Greg Olsen (129 yards), and the Seahawks’ Defense (7 points, 125 yards allowed), with all three representing HOME RUNS in the Start ‘Em field!!! As I accurately predicted both Todd Gurley (41 yards) and Julius Thomas (15 yards, 1 TD) had some rather underwhelming performances, but I have to admit that I blew it on Sammy Watkins (109 yards, 1 TD). Matchup be damned, that kid is a STUD!!! As I gaze into my Crystal Ball once more, I see many more playmakers just waiting to be utilized!!! Stay tuned in my friends, for I, The Oracle have got you covered with the MOST COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS IN THE BUSINESS!!!
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QUARTERBACKS
- START ‘EM: Blake Bortles, Jaguars v Colts (Last Week, 24/36, 322 yards, 5 TDs @ Titans) – Get ready folks, for you’re about to get acquainted with a number of Jacksonville Jaguars in this week’s column. First up is Blake Bortles, who is coming off the performance of his career last Sunday, where he dismantled the Titans’ defense in a bonafide shootout. Granted, it was in a losing effort, but this is Fantasy, and the only thing that matters is production, and holy @#$! did this kid produce. The sophomore torched Tennessee for 322 yards on 24-of-36 passing, throwing five touchdowns, three of which went to Allen Robinson (more on him in a bit). With twenty-seven passing scores in just twelve starts (fourth-most in the league), Bortles has tossed multiple scores in seven out of his last eight outings. This is a case of a young Quarterback seeing the game come together, for over the past five weeks, No. 5 has gotten rid of the ball quicker, taken fewer sacks, and completed at least 60.0% of his passes in four out of five contests. I don’t see him slowing down any against the Colts, who were absolutely manhandled by the Steelers last Sunday Night. Many around the league compare Bortles to a young Ben Roethlisberger, which is bad news for a defense that just got lit up for 364 yards and four touchdowns courtesy of Big Ben. And though it seems like a lifetime ago, this kid played well in his last encounter with the Colts; Bortles very nearly steered his team to an overtime victory as he completed 28-of-50 passes for 298 yards, and a touchdown, while also rushing for another thirty-one yards on four carries. Last week was not lightning in a bottle, for this kid is on his way towards big things, and I expect him to continue his growth this weekend.
Winston has grown quite a bit since the start of the season, and looks to exploit a porous Saints Defense for the second time this season.
- SIT ‘EM: Derek Carr, Raiders @ Broncos (Last Week, 31/48, 283 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs v. Chiefs) – Derek Carr has had plenty of moments in this, his second season in the NFL, and has a fine career ahead of him. I’m guessing he and fellow Quarterback Blake Bortles will carry the 2014 Draft Class well into the future. However, if there is a week to avoid the sophomore gunslinger like the plague, then this is it. Simply put, if you’ve got a starting Quarterback playing the Denver Broncos, you had better look elsewhere for a passer. Let me take a moment to run down the numbers; Wade Phillips has worked wonders with this defense, as they lead the league in a number of categories including Total Defense (284.7), Fumble Recoveries (12), Pass Defense (195.6), Passing Touchdowns Allowed (11), Net Yards per Pass Allowed (5.1), and most notably Sacks (41). Carr, on the other hand, is coming off quite a disappointing performance against Kansas City, tossing a season-high three interceptions in a 34-20 defeat that likely crushed the Raiders’ chances of returning to the postseason for the first time since 2002. Furthermore, the last time that No. 4 saw these Broncos he was sacked four times for a loss of twenty-six yards, and intercepted by Cornerback Chris Harris for a 74-yard touchdown return, which ultimately proved to be the decisive play in a 16-10 defeat. So I repeat, if you have a Quarterback starting against Denver, LOOK ELSEWHERE!!!!
- SLEEPER: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers v Saints (Last Week, 18/27, 227 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Rush TD v Falcons) – This week the state of Florida has quite a foothold on this column, as both the Jaguars and Buccaneers are represented throughout the following piece. The latter has really come together over the past month, winning three out of their last four games, with No. One Overall Pick Jameis Winston at the forefront. The former Heisman has improved from week to week, making all manner of big plays, including that unconventional, yet crucial First Down scramble on the game-winning drive against Atlanta last weekend. During that span, Winston is completing 60.3% of his passes for an average of 245.5 yards (7.5 y/a), with seven touchdowns to four interceptions, while rushing for another forty-two yards and two scores on fourteen carries. As is the case with his counterpart towards the northern part of Florida, this kid is cutting down on his mistakes, with his team all the better for it. And I can’t forsee him slowing down against the hapless Saints, who couldn’t defend him when they first met back in Week 2; in what ended up being Winston’s first NFL victory, the rookie calmly dissected New Orleans’ terrible Secondary on 14-of-21 passing (66.7%), 207 yards (9.9 y/a), while using both his arm and legs to reach the End Zone. Since that day, the sides have been traveling in opposite directions, as Winston has continued to develop while the Saints seem more interested in reaching new depths of ineptitude. My gut tells me that after having his way with these guys once, he should have plenty of fun the second time around.
RUNNING BACKS
- START ‘EM: Doug Martin, Buccaneers v Saints (Last Week, 25 carries, 95 yards, 1 TD v Falcons) – The Artist Formerly Known as the Muscle Hamster has now evolved into something greater…. All hail the DOUGERNAUT!!!! While that is an insanely clever nickname, Doug Martin has returned with a force on the field, leading the way for a revamped Buccaneers’ Offense that has continued to mature from week to week. Since bursting onto the scene as rookie back in 2012, Martin had struggled, rushing for a combined 950 yards on 3.6 yards per carry over the course of the 2013 and 2014 campaigns, which was well below the standard set as a rookie in which he trampled his way towards 1,454 yards (4.6 y/r) and eleven touchdowns. Now in a contract year, the former 1st Round Pick has picked the perfect time to reacquaint himself with the Fantasy World; No. 22 has averaged a career-high 94.9 yards per game on the ground, racking up a healthy 5.0 yards per carry, with five total touchdowns to his credit. He’s already rushed for 100-yards on four different occasions, including a staggering 235 yards three weeks ago at Philadelphia. Since then he has averaged 96 yards over the last two weeks and should surpass that figure against the woeful Saints’ Defense. Believe it or not, but New Orleans has actually been worse against the run than they have against the pass, relinquishing a league-worst 137.8 yards on the ground on a dreadful 4.9 yards per carry (32nd Overall.) In fact, during their current four-game losing streak, they’ve been gashed for an average of 165.8 yards on the ground. Looks like new Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen isn’t any better than his predecessor Rob Ryan. How does that old adage go? The more things change, the more they stay the same…
One of the pleasant surprises of the first half of the season, Freeman returned from a concussion with 103 total yards last week against Tampa Bay.
- SIT ‘EM: Devonta Freeman, Falcons @ Panthers (last Week, 103 all-purpose yards @ Buccaneers) – If there was an early-season Fantasy MVP Award, there is no doubt that Devonta Freeman would have been the recipient. The sophomore Tailback literally came out of nowhere to lead the league in touchdowns through the first eight weeks of the campaign; the diminutive dynamo racked up a stellar 132.8 all-purpose yards per game and ten touchdowns in that span for a Falcons team that surprised everyone with a 5-0 start. However, Atlanta’s fortunes have faded significantly since then, losing six out of their following seven games, including each of their past five contests. At some point in a Week 11 meeting with the Colts, Freeman suffered a concussion, and missed the following game before returning last weekend against the Buccaneers with a solid 103 all-purpose yards. However, don’t expect him to replicate that performance against the Panthers’ nasty defense this weekend; Ron Rivera’s defense has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in the league (87.2) on just 3.9 yards per carry (10th Overall), including a scant 50.0 yards per game on the ground over the last five weeks. For that matter, they’ve been difficult to pass against as well, permitting a mere 5.2 net yards per attempt (2nd Overall). But the biggest thing is turnovers, which is something that should be highlighted in this matchup. No team has forced more turnovers than Carolina (29), while Atlanta has effectively been it’s own worst enemy with twenty-two turnovers committed (26th Overall), including eight in the last four games alone. Trust me, the Panthers’ Defense is plenty good without handing them the ball on a silver platter, and if Freeman sees his offense do so then it’s going to drastically diminish how many touches he receives.
- SLEEPER: Matt Jones, Redskins @ Bears (Last Week, 18 carries, 49 yards v Cowboys) – Does anyone remember back in Week 2 when some kid named Matt Jones roughed up the Rams’ Defense for 123 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns? Well, I do, and I believe that this is the week in which he will get back to that level of play. Spending some time in Jay Gruden’s doghouse has seen his workload fluctuate, as he’s flirted from time to time with production, all the while splitting carries with the far more proven Alfred Morris. With that said, his eighteen carries last Monday against Dallas were the most he’s seen since that fateful meeting with St. Louis, and with this weekend’s opponent, Chicago, I expect that he’ll see plenty of opportunities to make an impact. While the Bears are surprisingly competitive under their new regime, they have been very susceptible to the run, allowing the fourth-most rushing yards in the league (127.9) on a miserable 4.8 yards per carry (31st Overall). Their last three opponents have trampled all over their defensive front to the tune of 156.0 yards per game, and did anyone see Blaine Gabbert part the sea with his 44-yard scamper that sent last week’s game into overtime? If Gruden is smart, and I think he is, he’ll pound the rock all day in Chicago, which means Jones will have the opportunity to have himself a day.
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WIDE RECEIVERS
- START ‘EM: Allen Robinson, Jaguars v Colts (Last Week, 10 catches, 153 yards, 3 TDs @ Titans) – The revolution continues in Jacksonville as their passing game is quietly becoming a force in the world of Fantasy Football. The Jags have averaged a sound 272.8 yards through the air thus far, with Allen Robinson becoming the Receiver of choice for the emerging Blake Bortles. Last year’s 2nd Round Pick has blossomed into a big play artist, hauling in sixty-five balls for 1,080 yards (16.6 y/c) and elven touchdowns this season, becoming the first Jaguars’ Wideout since Jimmy Smith to pass the 1,000-yard threshold. Sunday’s evisceration of the Titans’ secondary represented his fourth 100-yard game in 2015, and his three touchdowns became a single-game career-high. I expect him to thrive this weekend against the Colts, who relinquished a staggering 364 passing yards to Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers this past Sunday night. Indy has struggled mightily against the pass all season, allowing the third-most yards through the air (280.4) on 7.0 net yards per attempt (27th Overall), and twenty-four passing touchdowns (25th Overall). Indianapolis gave up 431 yards in their last meeting with Jacksonville back on October 4th, with Robinson securing four catches for eighty yards. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but there are multiple Jags who are MUST PLAYS this weekend!!!
Robinson has blossomed into a big play threat in his sophomore season, becoming the first Jaguar to pass 1,000 receiving yards since 2005.
- SIT ‘EM: Randall Cobb, Packers v Cowboys (Last Week, 4 catches, 29 yards @ Lions) – As the Packers’ vaunted passing attack has gradually diminished this season, so has the production of Randall Cobb, who was expected to be the benefactor of teammate Jordy Nelson’s season-ending ACL tear, particularly after inking a 4-year, $40 million deal in the Spring. However, after a strong start to the campaign, No. 18 has been a victim of injuries and the poor play of Green Bay’s Offensive Line, not to mention becoming the focus of opposing defenses. Since Week 3, Cobb has averaged just 45.7 receiving yards per game, with only two touchdowns over the span. At 11.1 yards per reception, he’s not getting downfield enough, and with Aaron Rodgers running for his life so frequently, he hasn’t had the requisite time to get open enough to really make a difference. And with the Cowboys’ Secondary now at full strength with the return of Morris Claiborne and the pass-rush starting to heat up, I’d advise exploring other options at the Receiver position this weekend, for until the Packers emerge from this funk they’ve been in, I’ll continue to explore alternatives.
- SLEEPER: DeVante Parker, Dolphins v. Giants (Last Week, 3 catches, 63 yards, 1 TD v Ravens) – They say that twice is coincidence, but three times is a habit, and that’s what I’m banking on with DeVante Parker, who is finally making an impact in Miami, after doing virtually nothing the first eleven weeks of the season. For a kid who was taken 14th Overall in last May’s NFL Draft, expectations were high, but for a variety of reasons, he couldn’t get on the field for a Dolphins Offense that isn’t exactly flush with offensive playmakers. Perhaps it was a product of the upheaval on the Coaching Staff, leading me to believe that he somehow landed in hard-nosed Interim Head Coach Dan Campbell’s doghouse, for this kid was absolutely invisible. Seriously, from Weeks 4 to 11 he didn’t even record a catch. However, the light came on two weeks ago against the Jets, as Parker caught four balls for eighty yards and a touchdown, and proceeded to follow that up with sixty-three yards and a score on three catches last weekend against the Ravens. I’m expecting that production to continue this Monday with the Giants on tap, who have been inept in defending the pass this season. Big Blue has been shredded for a league-worst 314.5 passing yards per game, yielding at least 300 yards through the air in three out of their last four outings, including 373 to the Jets last weekend. Management drafted Parker to be their future at Wideout, and with the postseason a longshot at this point, I’d be surprised if they didn’t give him every opportunity to make an impression over these last four games.
CHECK OUT OUR CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND INCLUDING AN ANALYSIS ON ALL 8 CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS!!!
TIGHT ENDS
- START ‘EM: Julius Thomas, Jaguars v Colts (Last Week, 2 catches, 15 yards, 1 TD @ Titans) – Ok, this must be a sign of the apocalypse, right? I’ve now picked THREE different players from the Jaguars’ offense to start this week!!! Rather than hinting at the impending end of everything, I believe this represents something else altogether in Jacksonville: growth. Yes, the Jags long-dormant offense has been evolving before our very eyes, and could have very likely reached their watershed moment last weekend against a stingy Titans’ defense. As detailed earlier, Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson went OFF against Tennessee, while Thomas despite catching a touchdown pass, was very quiet with just fifteen yards on a pair of receptions. Don’t let that lack of production scare you away from No. 80, who after missing time with an injured hand has slowly worked his way back into shape, all the while developing precious chemistry with his Quarterback. The Tight End recorded nine catches for 116 yards and a touchdown two weeks ago, and has now hauled in a score in three consecutive contests after reeling in just one in his first five outings with his new team. I feel he’s on the verge towards becoming a major contributor in Jacksonville, and with Indianapolis on deck this is a prime week for the former Pro Bowler to show out. And did anyone see the Colts attempt to defend the Steelers last Sunday Night? After a down week, Thomas is definitely worth a shot…
Thomas is starting to come on in Jacksonville, registering a touchdown reception in three consecutive games.
- SIT ‘EM: Scott Chandler, Patriots @ Texans (Last Week, 4 catches, 61 yards, 1 TD v Eagles) – Here is another Tight End who is starting to come on in the latter stages of the season, but for different reasons I have chosen to sit this week. Scott Chandler is the logical Next Man Up for the Patriots decimated Offense, particularly with All-Pro Rob Gronkowski continuing to nurse his injured knee. The Tight End position is a huge part of New England’s attack, and Chandler put forth a decent performance last weekend with sixty-one yards and a touchdown on four catches. However, the Pats were sloppy, and simply couldn’t take advantage against an Eagles’ Defense that had been in freefall for about a month. This week’s opponent, the Texans, have been on a surge lately, winning four in a row before last Sunday’s defeat at Buffalo. Houston has been tough to pass against, yielding the third-fewest passing yards in the league (218.3) on just 6.0 net yards per attempt (7th Overall), and there’s always the threat of J.J. Watt (13.5 sacks) completely wrecking an opposing offense. It’s also worth noting that both Texans’ Head Coach Bill O’Brien and Defensive Coordinator Romeo Crennel were both prominent members of New England’s Staff and may have a bit of insight into how to attack Tom Brady and Co., particularly given the state of their wounded Offensive Line. My guess is that Bill Belichick will need to deploy Chandler as a blocker quite a bit in an attempt to slow down Watt, and keep his Quarterback upright in the process.
- SLEEPER: Cameron Brate, Buccaneers v Saints (Last Week, 2 catches, 12 yards v Falcons) – A week after hitting big on Harvard graduate Ryan Fitzpatrick, I must have lost my damn mind, because I’m going back to the Ivy League with the one and only Cameron Brate. Waitaminute, who in the name of John Elway 1s Cameron Brate? In case you haven’t been paying attention, Lovie Smith is on to something down in Tampa, where the Buccaneers Offense is experiencing the same kind of growth that their Floridian counterparts in Jacksonville have. With Tight End Austin Seferian-Jenkins on the mend of late, Brate has emerged as a Red Zone threat for Jameis Winston. If you’ve made it this far into my column, then you know that I love Winston this week against the hapless Saints’ Defense, and why wouldn’t I pick at least one of his targets to exploit what is arguably the league’s worst Secondary? Before his quiet weekend against the Falcons, the sophomore from Harvard had posted 100 yards on eight catches over the previous two games, hauling in a touchdown in each outing, bringing his total to three on the season. Granted, as was the case Sunday, the return of a healthy Seferian-Jenkins probably knocks him down the pecking order, but against the Saints, who have allowed a ridiculous thirty-five passing touchdowns in just twelve games, EVERYBODY is a play, even you if you managed to sneak into Raymond James Stadium and steal a Bucs’ jersey.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
- START ‘EM: Seahawks @ Ravens (Last Week, 7 points, 125 total yards allowed, 2 turnovers, 4 sacks @ Vikings) – Double-dipping is something that I generally shy away from, but at this juncture of the season, why not? After some very un-Seattle-like performances, the Seahawks bounced back with a vengeance last week against the Vikings, completely smothering their sputtering offense. Last week, I figured after giving up over 500 yards and thirty points at home to the Steelers, that this group’s pride would come to the forefront, and did it ever! The Legion of Boom relegated division-leading Minnesota to a mere seven points, 125 total yards (WTF?!?!?!?!), nine First Downs, and a dreadful 2-of-10 on Third Down. Furthermore, Pete Carroll’s charges all but shut down rushing leader Adrian Peterson, stonewalling AP for eighteen yards on eight carries. And then there’s poor Teddy Bridgewater, who has been having some trouble in the latter stages of this season; the sophomore simply couldn’t find any open passing lanes against the two-time NFC Champs, completing 17-of-28 passes for 118 yards and an interception, while suffering four sacks for a loss of twenty-four yards, including a lost fumble. Remember how this defense went on tear at the end of last year? A rejuvenated Seahawks’ defense is a frightening proposition for the rest of the league, and I fully expect them to continue their trend upwards on the road at Baltimore, whose inept Offense has more prominent players on Injured Reserve than on the field of play.
Dallas has quietly improved on defense, alloweing the fifth-fewest yards in the league, and the third-fewest passing touchdowns.
- SIT ‘EM: Bengals v Steelers (Last Week, 3 points, 273 total yards allowed, 2 turnovers, 3 sacks @ Browns) – Yes, I’m well aware that the Bengals have permitted the fewest points in the league thus far (16.3), and that they rank tenth in Total Defense to boot (337.5). I’m also well aware that when they last faced the Steelers, they held Ben Roethlisberger and Co. to just ten points, while forcing three turnovers in the process. These guys are a rock solid unit, indeed. Honestly, this play has more to do with who they’re playing against, for Pittsburgh has been the hottest offense in the league over the past month, with Big Ben on an absolute tear. Since that last meeting with Cincinnati, the Steelers have averaged 35.8 points on a staggering 529.0 total yards of offense. Roethlisberger, to his credit, has become a Fantasy juggernaut, torching defenses for 388.3 passing yards and ten touchdowns in that span, making him the absolute LAST Quarterback that Marvin Lewis’ charges want to face at the moment. The Bengals have been feasting on some very miserable offenses of late (St. Louis, Cleveland), and could be susceptible to the shock of stepping up in class. And with Defensive Backs Leon Hall (Back) and George Iloka (Groin) listed as Questionable and Darqueze Dennard (Shoulder) now on Injured Reserve, this is not the weekend to be facing the Steelers’ high-powered passing attack.
- SLEEPER: Cowboys @ Packers (Last Week, 16 points, 266 yards allowed, 1 turnover, 3 sacks @ Redskins) – 2015 will likely go down as dreadfully forgettable season in Dallas thanks to the injuries they’ve suffered to the likes of Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. However, don’t let their pedestrian play on offense dissuade you from their cohorts on the opposite side of the ball, for Rod Marinelli’s boys have steadily improved throughout the campaign. Through twelve games, the Cowboys’ Defense has yielded the fifth-fewest yards in the league (326.2), while proving very staunch against the pass, allowing just 222.4 passing yards (5th Overall) and the third-fewest passing scores in the NFL (12). They’ve also managed to hold each of their last three opponents below 300 total yards. So why are these numbers important, you ask? Well, with Aaron Rodgers and the sputtering Packers’ Offense on tap, Dallas could be a sneaky good play for those of you whose typical starting defense is facing an unfavorable matchup. Green Bay is just 2-4 since their Bye Week, and has struggled offensively with an inconsistent ground game, and a makeshift Offensive Line, and if not for a miraculous Rodgers to Rodgers Hail Mary at the end of last week’s trip to Detroit, they would be in an even bigger hole. And if it comes to that Sunday, bat it down boys, BAT IT DOWN!!!!
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