Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos

8:30 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Denver – 4,  Over/Under: 40

Heavy postseason implications are abound at Sports Authority Field tonight, as the Denver Broncos host the Cincinnati Bengals in a matchup of division leaders on Monday Night Football.  Finally, a Monday Night matchup with some actual substance to it!  Currently, the Broncos and Bengals occupy the Third and Second Seeds in the AFC Playoff Picture, with the opportunity for both teams to advance up the pecking order pending tonight’s outcome.  Thanks to the Steelers’ surprising defeat at Baltimore, the Bengals (11-3, 1st in AFC North) have now clinched their first division title since 2013, and with a victory tonight, would not only secure a First Round Bye, but will have an opportunity to leapfrog top-seeded New England for that all-important Home Field Advantage in the AFC.  Tiebreakers aside, having that extra week off to retool is becoming paramount for a team that is expecting it’s two-time Pro Bowl Quarterback, Andy Dalton, to miss perhaps the first week of the postseason healing a fractured thumb on his throwing hand which he suffered early in the Second Quarter of a loss to Pittsburgh back on December 13th.  Initially thought to have ended his 2015 campaign altogether, Head Coach Marvin Lewis and his charges were handed the hope that that malady would sideline his veteran signal-caller for a minimum of a month, with a postseason return a distinct possibility.  However, it’s anyone’s guess how exactly Dalton will function with a tender throwing thumb, but if one thing is for certain, the Bengals are a much better team with No. 14 on the field than without; In his fifth season as the starter, the 28-year old has enjoyed career-bests in a wealth of categories, including Completion Percentage (66.1%), Touchdown Percentage (6.5%), Interception Percentage (1.8%), Yards per Attempt (8.4), Net Yards per Attempt (7.7), Passer Rating (106.2), and Total QBR (73.1).  Furthermore, Cincinnati is 10-3 with Dalton under Center this term.  However, if you’ve noticed, the Bengals are indeed 11-3 overall, which means that even without their main man, they’ve managed to preserve nonetheless.  This of course brings us to one AJ McCarron, who will be at the controls for the final two games of the Regular Season, and perhaps at least one in the Playoffs, which must have the faithful in Southern Ohio somewhat uneasy to say the least…

For or better or for worse, McCarron will be the Bengals’ starting Quarterback for the next three weeks, while Andy Dalton rehabs a broken thumb.

By now, everyone is acquainted with the plight of the Cincinnati Bengals; since drafting Andy Dalton back in 2011, they have amassed a solid 51-26-1 record (.654), advancing to the Playoffs in four consecutive years, but on all four occasions have been eliminated with nary a single victory to show for it.  That’s right, folks, call them the 90’s Era Buffalo Bills Lite or the Four Falls of Cincinnati, this franchise has seen four years of Regular Season success spoiled by Postseason disappointment.  Four trips to the Playoffs, and an 0-4 resume’ to show for it.  In 2011 and 2012 they suffered back-to-back losses at the Houston Texans, while in 2013 the suffered a shocking upset at home to the Wild Card San Diego Chargers.  Last year, they limped into Indianapolis with a shorthanded offense and were shutout in an ugly display.  Now, with expectations at an all-time high, the Football Gods revealed their cruel hand by taking away their starting Quarterback at this most critical juncture.  Indeed, the Man Upstairs must NOT be a Bengals’ fan.  So with all that taken into context, it’s quite clear that McCarron is in an unenviable position, as the team risks going off the rails and experiencing more Postseason disappointment under the caretaker’s watch.  So what to make of McCarron, the 5th Round Pick from last year’s NFL Draft?  Those around the sporting world are very familiar with this kid, who served as Alabama’s starting Quarterback from 2011 to 2013, including their 2012 National Championship Team.  Accomplished would be one way to describe the sophomore, who in three years in Tuscaloosa won all but four of his forty starts, tossing seventy-five touchdowns to just fifteen interceptions with a sterling 162.5 Passer Rating to boot.  Despite possessing prototypical size for the position (6-3, 220 lbs) and performing in a Pro Style offensive system in college, he fell to depths of the later rounds of the Draft because of a perceived lack of arm strength and mechanics.  Essentially, he was a function of Nick Saban’s eternal machine in Alabama that has sent so many talented players to the NFL in recent years.  After holding a clipboard in 2014 and most of the current term, the 25-year old replaced his predecessor early in a 33-20 loss to the Steelers, in which he showed flashes of his potential, completing 22-of-32 passes (68.8%) for 280 yards (8.8 y/a), with a pair of touchdowns and interceptions each.  Last week at San Francisco, McCarron simply had to manage the game against a downtrodden 49ers club, who committed four turnovers in a 24-14 victory.  To his credit, No. 5 was solid in his execution of the gameplan, completing 15-of-21 attempts (71.4%) for 192 yards and a touchdown, despite the void of a running game (68 yards on 36 carries) and absorbing four sacks.  Cincinnati did well to avoid the pitfall of traveling across country to face a struggling football team, but tonight’s matchup at Mile High should present a world of challenges for Lewis’ young Quarterback.  Look for Offensive Coordinator (and potential Head Coaching candidate) Hue Jackson to utilize the running game more so tonight, in an effort to temper the Broncos’ hellacious pass rush, which could potentially give McCarron problems in the pocket.  Despite showing a strong commitment to the run (29.1 attempts per game), the Bengals have been middle of the pack in terms of production with 110.9 yards (14th Overall), but have struggled to do so on just 3.8 yards per carry (25th Overall).  The two-headed tandem of Jeremy Hill (635 yards) and Giovani Bernard (680 yards) have accounted for the majority of those rushing yards, with the former proving to be proficient in the Red Zone (10 TDs), while the latter has factored heavily in the passing game (44 catches, 431 yards).  This becomes particularly important given the status of prolific Tight End Tyler Eifert (12 TDs), who will miss yet another contest courtesy of lingering effects from a concussion sustained  two weeks ago against Pittsburgh.

While their opponent has wrapped up the division, with the aim of obtaining the No. One Overall Seed, the Broncos (10-4, 1st in AFC West) have just as much to gain, and even more to lose.  Thus is the current situation that Gary Kubiak and his charges find themselves in; by winning out, Denver would earn their fourth consecutive AFC West Title along with a valuable First Round Bye, but with a loss tonight, would miraculously put themselves in peril of falling behind the surging Kansas City Chiefs, knocking them down to the first Wild Card spot.  Of course, that would mean that they would have to lose next week’s finale at home against the disappointing Chargers, but hey, if yesterday’s games taught us anything, it’s that overlooking an opponent can be fatal.  Just ask the Steelers.  As is the case with Cincinnati, earning a Bye in the First Round would be a boon to this team’s Super Bowl hopes, for it would give them yet another week to get the league’s only five-time MVP, Peyton Manning, healthy for one last postseason push.  The 39-year old has been sidelined with a torn plantar fascia in his foot since November 15th, with Head Coach Gary Kubiak remaining very coy as to precisely when we can expect to see the 14-time Pro Bowler back under Center.  However, there are a number of factors working against that very thing from happening at this point.  First, despite having retured to the Practice Field for over a week now, Manning has yet to convince the Coaching Staff that he will be effective enough to make a successful return to the Playing Field.  Second, his play before he suffered the injury was far from what you would expect from the league’s all-time leader in passing yards and touchdowns; in nine starts, No. 18 has completed just 59.9% of his attempts for 242.2 yards (6.8 y/a), nine touchdowns, and seventeen interceptions, which was a league-high at the time.  Most of those figures represented the lowest such marks since his rookie campaign back in 1998, if not the worst of his illustrious career altogether.  Furthermore, he had been sacked on 4.5% of his dropbacks, which further contributed towards his lingering ailments.  And that of course, brings us to the third major factor working against him: Brock Osweiler and the play of the Broncos’ offense.

After reigniting the Denver Offense, Osweiler has faltered over the past two games, sustaining seven sacks in a pair of losses to the Raiders and Steelers.

After replacing Manning midway through a 29-13 debacle at home against the Chiefs in which the veteran three a staggering four interceptions, Osweiler indeed provided a much-needed spark to an offensive unit that was struggling to say the least.  The former 2nd Round Pick led Denver to three consecutive victories over the likes of Chicago (17-15, OT), New England (30-24 OT), and San Diego (17-3), prompting many around the league to openly question whether Manning would ever return to the field (even if healthy), and if indeed this kid was the future of the franchise.  Well, after the last two weeks, it may be that we all were a bit premature in those assumptions.  In back-to-back losses to Oakland (15-12) and Pittsburgh (34-27), Osweiler has struggled mightily, as the offense has once again bogged down due to the same afflictions it suffered from under his predecessor; the running game has vanished while the pass protection has continued to prove inconsistent, and at the heart of it all has been the towering 6-8, fourth-year passer, who has found that life as a starting Quarterback in the NFL is certainly NOT as easy as it first appeared to be.  So let’s take a moment to discern what has happened to No. 17 of late… One of the big positives of the offense being turned over to Osweiler was that he was a far better fit for what Kubiak initially wanted to do offensively; though it’s been described as dated, Kubiak’s run-heavy, bootleg-ridden scheme can be very effective when executed correctly, which the 25-year old did fairly well in his first three starts, completing 62.1% of his passes for an average of 228.7 yards (7.2 y/a), along with four touchdowns and two interceptions.  Unlike Manning, he wasn’t forcing the ball into crowded areas, while moving around in the pocket surprisingly well for a player of his size.  However, the biggest change was the sudden improvement of the running game; Denver stumbled it’s way to a meager 86.0 yards per game over the course of their first nine outings of the season, with that figure being overly inflated due to three tilts in which they had racked up over 140 rushing yards apiece, but in the first three games with Osweiler as the starter they churned out a very healthy 161.0 yards per contest.  As cliche’ as it sounds, it’s been said that the NFL is often an acronym for Not For Long, which would definitely be appropriate after the last two weeks.  In the aforementioned losses to the Raiders and Steelers, the young Quarterback visibly regressed, connecting on just 58.9% of his attempts for an average of 302.0 yards per game (6.4 y/a), with three touchdowns and one interception.  Granted, those are NOT bad numbers by any means, for in fact, they’re indicative of a pretty solid two-game stretch.  However, reading between the lines will reveal some truths; Osweiler has become very susceptible to pressure, in part because of his decimated Offensive Line, but also due to his knack for holding onto the ball for too long.  He was sacked five times for a loss of thirty-two yards against the Raiders, including a crucial Safety in the Fourth Quarter, while sustaining two more at Pittsburgh last Sunday.  Third Down has also been a problem for this kid of late, as he has converted on just 9-of-36 attempts (36.1%) over the last two outings, which is an indictment on a running game that has slowed down to an average of 69.0 yards in that time.  And that is essentially the problem here; with the rushing attack still up and down and the pass protection getting worse, Kubiak and his staff cannot justify parading Manning out there just to get the future Hall of Famer killed by opposing defenses.  Forget his health.  Forget his legacy.  Forget his salary.  Forget his lofty standing in the league and the community.  None of that matters at the moment, for if Peyton Manning is forced to operate under these cconditions he will be DOOMED TO FAILURE.  As crazy as it sounds, given the circumstances Brock Osweiler gives the Broncos the best chance to win, and somewhere, deep down, Kubiak knows it.  For that matter, so does John Elway…