(8) North Carolina @ (17) Duke

6:30 PM EST, ESPN – Line: North Carolina -1,  Over/Under: 160.5

Johnson has been a stud in his final year in Chapel Hill, leading the ACC with eighteen Double-Doubles.

On the final weekend of the Regular Season, historic rivals meet for the second time in a month as the eighth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels travel to Durham with vengeance on their minds, as they face off against the seventeenth-ranked Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium.  With that said, there is plenty on the line for Carolina (24-6, 13-4, T-1st in ACC), who with a win tonight can clinch their first Atlantic Coast Conference Regular Season Championship in four years, and can go a long way towards establishing themselves as one of the four No. One Seeds in the NCAA Tournament. But whereas at one point Roy Williams’ charges had a stranglehold on the conference, their performance in recent weeks has left a lot to be desired.  After their narrow 74-73 defeat to the Blue Devils in Chapel Hill two weeks ago, they have since won three out of four, hammering the likes of Miami (96-71) and North Carolina State (80-68), before falling to Virginia (79-74) last weekend.  Monday Night they survived a very spirited affair from Syracuse, outlasting the Orange en route to a 75-70 victory.  At 19-11, Jim Boeheim’s kids looked as if they would simply play out the string, what with no postseason action on the way thanks to NCAA Sanctions levied against them during the Summer.  It was supposed to be a walk in the park for the Heels, but as we should all know by now, these games are never played on paper.  Just as they did against the Cavaliers two days beforehand, the hosts struggled mightily to maintain consistency offensively, as Syracuse’s vaunted Zone Defense slowed them down considerably, forcing them to patiently probe the defensive sets.  It was a mixed bag for the home side, who only managed to shoot 41.2% from the field, while continuing to flounder farther from the rim where they were a dreadful 6-of-25 from beyond the arc (24.0%), while committing thirteen turnovers compared to dishing out seventeen assists.  ACC Player of the Year Candidate Brice Johnson posted yet another Double-Double (his league-leading eighteenth), with fourteen points and ten rebounds, as Williams chose to start a number of the lesser featured Seniors on Senior Day.  However, fellow Senior Marcus Paige continued to his regression from his stellar Freshman campaign three years ago, totaling just six points on 2-of-10 shooting from the floor (20.0%) including 1-of-7 from three (14.3%), along with a pair of rebounds and eight assists.  Fortunately for Carolina, the visitors couldn’t do much with the ball either, shooting 41.8% from the field , including a miserable 5-of-20 from downtown themselves (25.0%), while committing fifteen turnovers opposed to only nine assists.  As is customary for the Heels, their work on the glass proved to be the difference, besting the Orange on the boards 38-30, while pulling down a healthy nineteen offensive rebounds, eight more than their opponent.  If a slower tempo isn’t conducive to creating more opportunities, than boards of the offensive variety are the best alternative; North Carolina attempted thirteen more field goals than Syracuse did Monday Night, ultimately proving the difference in what was an otherwise ugly offensive performance.  And speaking of ugly, we’re going to take a moment to delve deeper into the plight that has been Marcus Paige this season.  While injuries have played a role in his troubles, particularly earlier in the campaign, Paige has certainly NOT lived up to the lofty expectations heaped upon him after his first two seasons in Chapel Hill; his shooting has plummeted across the board, netting a disappointing 36.0% of his attempts from the floor in conference play, including 29.1% from three, despite purportedly being one of the few three-point threats in the rotation.  In an effort to shake things up, Williams has deployed him off the ball more frequently alongside fellow Point Guard Joel Berry (12.5 points, 3.2 assists), but that simply hasn’t had the desired effect.  It’s a shame, because anyone that has seen this team play can recognize that if this kid can play at a high level, then the Heels go from being a very good team to arguably the favorite to cut down the nets at the end of the month, but instead they continue to find themselves stuck in a bog consisting of a dozen teams that could potentially win it all despite their flaws.  should make for an interesting tourney…

Ingram has had to log heavy minutes in conference play, but has flourished with more opportunities, averaging 17.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in ACC play.

Meanwhile, things haven’t gone exactly according to plan since that remarkable triumph in Chapel Hill for Duke (22-8, 11-6, 5th in ACC) either, who have since lost two out of their last four outings.  As a result, Mike Krsysewski’s charges sit two games back of second place in the conference, rebounding from a disappointing beatdown against Pittsburgh (76-62) with a hard-fought 79-71 victory over lowly Wake Forest.  Perhaps it was simply a case of looking ahead to tonight’s matchup, but there is no doubt that the faithful in Durham expected more out of their team against the 11-19 Demon Deacons.  As was the case with their counterparts against he Orange, the Devils suffered a miserable offensive performance, shooting a scant 36.5% from the field, including a mind-numbing 15-of43 (34.9%) from within the three-point arc.  Star Freshman Forward Brandon Ingram struggled throughout the night, scoring fifteen points on a dismal 6-of-17 shooting from the floor (35.3%), though Sophomore Guard Grayson Allen suffered no such issues, tallying a game-high thirty points on 7-of-16 shooting (43.8%).  Now we know what you’re asking yourselves.  Just how in the hell did they manage to score seventy-nine points shooting well below 40.0% from the field?  Well, the hosts definitely benefitted from the charity stripe, where they calmly knocked down twenty-five of their whopping thirty-eight attempts (65.8%), outscoring the visiting side by a staggering fifteen points.  One could argue the merits of favorable home officiating, as the home side attempted twenty-one more free-throws than their opponent.  Hell, Allen shot nineteen himself, draining fourteen of them.  Additionally, despite struggling in the painted area, they had no such issues from the perimeter, shooting a solid 8-of-20 form long distance (40.0%), while also cranking up the defensive pressure, forcing seventeen turnovers, including a dozen steals.  Ingram, to his credit overcame a bad shooting night by securing eleven rebounds, while the connoisseur of dirty work Marshall Plumlee grabbed seventeen boards (seven offensive) to go along with a solid thirteen points.  And that is exactly the kind of performance that they’re going to need tonight against North Carolina, as the trio of Allen, Ingram, and Plumlee are going to have perform multiple tasks while avoiding foul trouble.  Depth has been an issue all year for Krsysewski, who has largely stuck with a six man rotation in league play, as only six players have logged more than an average of 6.2 minutes per game.  Allen and Ingram alone have played more than thirty-seven minutes on average, while Plumlee has managed 34.8 himself.  This became a giant red flag in their previous meeting with the Tar Heels, as Matt Jones exited the contest after just nine minutes of action thanks to sprained ankle, leaving the Blue Devils dangerously thin, as five players played over thirty minutes while the aforementioned duo of Allen and Ingram registered forty apiece.  However, despite being shorthanded and getting killed on the glass (minus-15 rebounds) and in the paint (minus-18 points), this team proved their resilience by getting to the charity stripe (13-of-16, 81.3%), and absolutely terrorizing the home side from beyond the arc (7-of-19, 36.8%), which ultimately proved to be the equalizer.  As we stated earlier, Carolina is sorry as heel when it comes to shooting threes, which was never more evident than in this matchup, where they managed to connect on only ONE of their thirteen attempts from downtown (7.7%).  In fact, the aforementioned Paige was the poster boy for their collective ineptitude, missing all six of his attempts, while Duke’s Luke Kennard nailed three of his six attempts (50.0%), which was two more than the hosts had as a whole.  And in a close game, three-pointers can oftentimes swing momentum, particularly in the college game, with the visitor’s eighteen-point advantage in that regard proving to be the difference-maker.

On the eve of the NCAA Tournament, can North Carolina an ACC Championship, and perhaps even a No. One Seed?  Will Duke continue to confound their bitter rivals?  Which revered Coach will manage to faint first?  Will Grayson Allen  trip anyone?  With a wealth of possibilities, only I, The Oracle have the answers, and to find the answers you seek, all you need to do is…