Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors, Game Seven

8:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Toronto -7,  Over/Under: 191

DeRozan must show up in Game Seven, as he has struggled mightily throughout this series averaging just 15.8 points on 32.1% shooting from the field

With the First Round of the Playoffs nearly over, there are plenty still be decided in the Eastern Conference as the Indiana Pacers and Toronto Raptors clash in Game Seven at Air Canada Center for the right to advance to the Conference Semifinals.  Indeed there has got be a great deal of tension North of the Border, as the Raptors (56-26, 1st in Atlantic Division) are on the precipice of advancing past the First Round for the first time in fifteen years, while also dangerously close to a third consecutive “one-and-done” elimination.  Their collective struggles in this series are actually very simple; their stars, namely Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan need to play better.  For the second consecutive postseason, Dwayne Casey’s pair of All-Stars has woefully underperformed at this juncture, struggling mightily to find the bottom of the net.  To put this into a proper context, let’s traverse back to a year ago, as Toronto was embarrassingly swept by Washington in the opening round of the Playoffs; as a team, these guys couldn’t throw the ball in the ocean, netting a mere 41.6% of their attempts from the field, including just 30.0% from beyond the arc, with DeRozan and Lowry shooting a miserable 40.0% and 31.6% respectively.  Now we don’t profess to be mathematicians by any means, but when your two leading scorers are struggling in such a manner it’s probably going to have an adverse effect on the offense.  As we return to the present, the term deja vu becomes all too prevalent; through six games DeRozan and Lowry have shot a combined 31.6% from the field, en route to averaging 30.1 points, a significant drop from the 44.7 points that they accounted for throughout the Regular Season.  Game Six’s dismal 101-83 defeat underscored it best, as the visiting side took a 44-40 lead into Halftime only to be outscored 61-39 over the rest of the contest.  Once again, the Atlantic Division Champions were left waiting for their All-Stars to carry them, and once again were left wanting; DeRozan and Lowry scored a total of eighteen points between them on a scant 7-of-27 shooting from the field (25.9%), while committing four turnovers apiece.  The supporting cast played well enough, particularly Center Jonas Valanciunas (14 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks) and Corey Jospeh (15 points off the Bench), but let’s be completely honest: the only way the Raptors continue playing after Sunday is if their stars shine likes stars, not white dwarfs.  However, apart from making the Pacers look like the Bad Boys Era Pistons, the thing that hasn’t been given enough of a spotlight is the fact that this team has been completely neutralized at the Charity Stripe.  Over the course of the campaign, Toronto had proven to be one of the most prolific teams in the league at getting to the Free-Throw Line, ranking third in attempts (26.7) and second in makes (20.8), all the while leading a very healthy Free-Throw/Field Goal Attempt Ratio of 25.5% (2nd Overall).  They also don’t send their opponents to the Line very much either, committing the ninth-fewest fouls overall (19.6), leading to just 22.1 attempts for the opposition (6th Overall).  But wouldn’t you know it, but that script has been completely flipped in this series.  Casey’s charges have shot plenty of free-throws (169), but have missed forty of them, while Indiana on the other hand nearly as many (159), while making 130 themselves, wiping away what had been a given advantage over the last six months for Toronto.

George has tormented Toronto with 27.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.8 steals in this series, including 33 points in Game One.

Meanwhile, at this point the Pacers (45-37, 2nd in Central Division) are playing with House Money.  After a lost 2014-2015 campaign that led to a roster-wide revamping, Indiana won six out of their final seven games to ensnare the Seventh Seed in the Eastern Conference, and have now successfully pushed the Second Seed to the brink of elimination.  Indeed, Frank Vogel and his charges must be licking their chops, for all the pressure is on the Raptors, who have to exorcise a wealth of demons in front of their home crowd tonight, while the Pacers on the other hand can simply play ball.  After all, these guys stormed into Air Canada Centre and took Game One (100-90) meeting little resistance from their hosts.   Credit where credit is due, Vogel and his Staff have done an excellent job of confounding Toronto throughout the series, particularly DeRozan and Lowry.  Indiana’s defensive pressure has been relentless, yielding only 39.5% shooting from the field, including 27.5% from beyond the arc, while harassing one of the more cautious teams in the league into eighty-three turnovers.  In fact, through six games the Raptors have dished out only ninety-two assists, or in other words nine more than they have turnover, which is indicative of stagnant offense, I.E. poor ball movement.  Ironically, after going to great lengths to shed their previously plodding, slow style of play, the Pacers have schooled their opponent in just that.  Management jettisoned the likes of Roy Hibbert and David West in the Offseason in favor of younger, more mobile bigs that wouldn’t drag down a faster, freer-flowing tempo, leading to the Pacers improving to an average of 96.6 possessions per 48 minutes, clocking in at the eleventh-fastest pace in the league. However, the game ALWAYS slows down in the Playoffs, and that has been no more true than in this series where the Pace has been set at 88.8 possessions per 48 minutes, which at first glance would seem to favor Toronto, but just hasn’t been the case.  Of course, we’d be remiss if we didn’t give credence to the biggest story of this series, namely the reintroduction of Paul George.  Simply put, while the Raptors’ All-Stars have languished in this series, the Pacers’ MVP has not.  After sustaining one of the most gruesome compound fractures one could imagine, in an Olympic Exhibition no less, George missed all but the final six games of the previous campaign, but has returned with a vengeance, thriving in Vogel’s revamped, small-ball style, achieving career-highs in scoring (23.1), three-point field goals (210), free-throws (454), assists (4.1), steals (1.9), and PER (20.9), while starting eighty-one games.  And to say that he’s thrived in this series against the Raptors would be a dramatic understatement; the wingman has averaged 27.5 points on 45.7% shooting from the field, including 38.9% from beyond the arc, along with 6.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.8 steals, while taking residence at the free-Throw Line, calmly knocking down al but three of his fifty-eight attempts.  His twenty-one points led all five Pacers’ starters who scored in double-figures, filling up the stat sheet with eleven rebounds, six assists, and a pair of steals.  Oh, and he was 10-of-10 from the Charity Stripe to boot.  Earlier in this column we referenced that Indiana should feel good about going into Air Canada Centre for Game Seven, given that they have already won on that court once in this series.  Well, George scored twenty-six of his game-high thirty-three points in the second half, including seventeen in the Third Quarter alone.  Welcome back Agent Geroge, we’ve missed you…

Predicted Outcome: Raptors 96, Pacers 91