Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs

8:20 PM EST, NBC – Line: Chiefs -1,  Over/Under: 45

When Roethlisberger last faced the Chiefs, he torched their defense for 300 yards and five passing touchdowns in a 43-14 rout back in early October.

With Mother Nature playing a very heavy hand in today’s AFC Divisional Playoff, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs meet at wintery Arrowhead Stadium in (hopefully) the aftermath of an ice storm that has caused League Offices to move Kickoff Time from 1:00 PM EST to 8:20 PM EST.  With that area of the country mired in a Winter Advisory until Monday Morning, inches of ice threaten to effect the way this game is going to be played in a major way, particularly in the case of the visiting Steelers (11-5, 1st in AFC North), whose wide-open offensive attack could very well be neutralized under the circumstances.  Powered by three Pro-Bowlers, Mike Tomlin’s Offense has become one of the more prolific units in the league, even though it may seem rare that all three players have been healthy at the same time.  On the season, Pittsburgh has averaged 24.9 points (10th Overall) on 383.6 Total Yards (7th Overall), including 273.6 yards through the air (5th Overall) on 6.8 Net Yards per Attempt (8th Overall), and another 110.0 yards on the ground (14th Overall) on 4.3 Yards per Carry (15th Overall).  However, as we’ve said already, those numbers don’t necessarily reflect what this group is capable of when the triumvirate of Ben Roethlisberger (64.4% 3,819 YDS, 7.5 Y/A, 29 TD, 13 INT, 66.6 QBR), Le’Veon Bell (1,884 Total YDS, 9 Total TD), and Antonio Brown (106 REC, 1,284 YDS, 12 TD) are on the field together.  In Roethlisberger’s case, the 34-year old Quarterback missed  some time after suffering a midseason knee injury, while Bell was suspended for the first three contests of the term due to running afoul of the league’s Substance Abuse Policy, with even Brown (along with the other two) sitting out the Season Finale against Cleveland with ailments of his own.  And just when things appear to be on the up and up, Roethlisberger aggravated an old fracture in his foot in the waning moments of the Steelers’ 30-12 thumping of the Dolphins in last weekend’s Wild Card Playoff, departing the locker-room in a walking boot.  Though he’s proclaimed himself fine, it leaves to the imagination as to just how inclement weather will effect his mobility.  It goes without saying, but Tomlin and Co. need Big Ben (along with Bell and Brown) on the field today at Arrowhead, for when these guys are firing on all cylinders, they’re downright frightening; Pittsburgh went 8-3 during the Regular Season when these guys were on the field together, while averaging 26.5 points on 383.0 Total Yards per Game.  Winners of eight in a row, their explosive prowess was on display in the win over Miami; avenging a disappointing 30-15 loss in South Florida, Pittsburgh jumped on the Dolphins early, outscoring them 14-3 in the First Quarter, before establishing a comfortable 30-6 lead heading into the final stanza.  Roethlisberger completed 13-of-18 passes for 197 yards, a pair of touchdowns and a pair of interceptions, while Bell rushed for 167 yards and two scores on twenty-nine carries, with Brown striking quickly and dramatically with a 50-yard touchdown reception followed shortly by a 62-yard score in the first frame alone.  Today’s trip to Arrowhead should rekindle some fond memories for these guys in particular, for when they faced the Chiefs earlier in the season (though it was at Heinz Field), the hosts embarrassed the visiting side in a 43-14 debacle; Pittsburgh torched them for 436 Total Yards of Offense, with Roethlisberger putting on an absolute show, connecting on all but five of his twenty-seven passes, for 300 yards and five touchdowns, while Bell (in his return from suspension) trampled Kansas City’s Defensive Front to the tune of 144 rushing yards on eighteen carries, with another thirty-four yards via five receptions.  Keep an eye on the latter today, for Bell has been an integral part of their late season success; during their winning streak, the Tailback has averaged 143.1 rushing yards coupled with 36.6 receiving yards, while scoring a total of nine touchdowns in just seven games.  Furthermore, the 24-year old made some serious history this year, becoming the first player in NFL History to average over a hundred rushing yards and fifty receiving yards in a single season.  Needless to say, the Chiefs will be gunning for him early…

Smith attempted a season-high fifty passes in the loss to Pittsburgh, but has led the Chiefs to win of their last eleven games since.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs (12-4, 1st in AFC West) too got hot coming down the stretch, winning five of their last six outings en route to securing their first AFC West Title since 2010.  Andy Reid has done a masterful job of rebuilding this franchise, guiding his charges to a 45-21 record in four years on the job, including three trips to the Playoffs.  While this team may be maligned for being a ‘boring” bunch, don’t be fooled for that’s just another way of saying that they’ve been ruthlessly efficient and consistent.  Granted, nothing they do in particular will wow you, for they rank thirteenth in scoring (24.3), twentieth in Total Offense (353.9), and twenty-fourth in Total Defense (368.5), while placing in the NFL’s middle to bottom third across the board in most categories.  However, as is usually the case, the devil always lies within the details.  Kansas City has done a tremendous job of not only forcing turnovers, but limiting their own mistakes, evidenced by their league-best thirty-three takeaways, compared to committing only seventeen themselves, parleying into a healthy Plus-16 Differential.  That’s a huge reason as to why there is such a gulf between all the yards they’ve allowed and the relatively paltry number of points they relinquished (19.4).  Furthermore, the Defense has managed to turn those turnovers into points, scoring five touchdowns this season, with All-Pro Safety Eric Berry (77 TKL, 4 INT, 9 PD, 1 FF) accounting for two scores himself.  And then there is Rookie Receiver/Return Man Tyreek Hill, who has emerged as the gamebreaking talent that Reid has been missing since Pro-Bowl Tailback Jamaal Charles tore his ACL early during the 2015 campaign.  An All-Pro in his first season in the NFL, the Fifth Round Pick has been the proverbial Swiss Army Knife in 2016, creating huge plays in the passing game, running game, and on Special Teams; Hill has reeled in sixty-one receptions for 593 yards and six touchdowns, while rushing for another 267 yards and three scores on just twenty-four carries, and leading the league in Return Yards (976) and Return Touchdowns (3).  Put it all together and this kid has been simply electrifying, amassing a total of 1,836 Total Yards (114.8 per game) and twelve touchdowns, with eight of those scores consisting of thirty yards or more.  Simply put, he’s been a major component in the Chiefs’ eight non-offensive touchdowns, while gifting the Offense excellent Field Position with which to operate.  Not bad for a guy that only officially started one game, huh?  Needless to say, he’s been a godsend to Alex Smith (67.1% 3,502 YDS, 7.2 Y/A, 15 TD, 8 INT, 66.0), who despite being a modicum of efficiency, has long been derided as the quintessential conservative Game Manager.  Listen, 6.50 Net Yards per Attempt may not blow you away, but it’s by far the highest such figure he’s posted in his four years in Kansas City, which is a direct reflection of the impact that Hill has made on the Offense.  In fact, that particular statistic would place Smith fifteenth among thirty-two starting Quarterbacks, ahead of Aaron Rodgers, who is one of the top candidates for the MVP award.  Perhaps no player on this roster personifies the Chiefs’ unspectacularly consistent nature than Smith, who since 2011 has won more Regular Season Games (60-25-1) than any Quarterback with the exception of Tom Brady and the aforementioned Rodgers.  However, unlike his contemporaries his resume has lacked much success in the Playoffs, despite playing very well in his own right; the 32-year old has completed 60.2% of his attempts for 1,309 yards, eleven touchdowns and one interception in five contests, but has gone just 2-3 nonetheless.  He’ll be looking for redemption today after a less than inspiring showing in Kansas City’s previous meeting with Pittsburgh, in which he connected on 30-of-50 attempts for 287 yards and two touchdowns, but was sacked four times and picked off once in a game that got away as quickly as it started.  The Bye Week should have done wonders for this team, not just from a health perspective, but from a preparation point as well; few coaches have been as successful as Reid when given an extra week to prepare for an opponent, owning a sterling 19-3 record when coming off a Bye Week.

Predicted Outcome: Steelers 17, Chiefs 16