8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: North Carolina -, Over/Under:
Out of Duke’s prized Recruiting Class, Tatum has been the most impressive, averaging 16.3 points on 45.2% shooting, including 36.8% from three, along with 7.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.1 blocks in ACC Play.
After months of competition and thrills, the College Basketball Regular Season comes to an end tonight and what better way to prepare for the Postseason than with it’s most celebrated rivalry, as the Fifth-Ranked North Carolina Tar Heels host the Seventeenth-Ranked Duke Blue Devils at the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill. After extremely high expectations coming into the season, the 2016-2017 campaign has been an uneven one for Duke (23-7, 11-6 in ACC) who have certainly experienced their share of highs and lows thus far. Preseason hype reached stunning levels with an incoming Top-Ranked Recruiting Class featuring the likes of Jayson Tatum (16.1 PTS, 43.9% FG, 35.2% 3FG, 7.4 REB, 2.2 AST, 1.3 STL, 1.3 BLK), Harry Giles (4.5 PTS, 56.7% FG, 4.1 REB), and Frank Jackson (10.3 PTS, 46.8% FG, 38.1% 3FG, 2.4 REB, 1.8 AST) among others, while the return of upperclassmen such as Grayson Allen (14.5 PTS, 38.8% FG, 34.4% 3FG, 4.1 REB, 3.7 AST) and Luke Kennard (19.8 PTS, 50.4% FG, 45.4% 3FG, 5.3 REB, 2.5 AST) had many folks around Durham proclaiming them favorites to cut down the nets in a few weeks time. And so the Preseason No. One Blue Devils went about their business winning all but one of their first thirteen games, but ran into trouble once the conference schedule began, coupled with the loss of Hall of Fame Head Coach Mike Krzyzewski, who would need a month away from the court in order to rehab from prolonged back surgery. With all due respect to Interim Coach Jason Capel, this team sorely missed their general, dropping four out of their first seven league outings by an average margin of 10.5 points per defeat. During this stretch, the aforementioned Allen struggled with the overblown controversy regarding his habitual tripping of opponents, while both Giles and Senior Forward Amile Jefferson (11.2 PTS, 61.9% FG, ) were hounded by injuries. Eventually, Krzyzewski would return and Duke would right the ship, winning seven straight contests at one point, including a triumphant 86-78 victory over North Carolina at Cameron Indoor Stadium back on February 9th. Tatum separated himself from the rest of the Freshmen Class, elevating his stock to another level in ACC play, averaging 16.3 points on 45.2% shooting from the field, including 36.8% from beyond the arc, along with 7.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.1 blocks over the last seventeen games. However, after that initial surge, it appears that the Devils are beginning to stumble before reaching the finish line; back-to-back losses to unranked opponents such as Syracuse (78-75) and Miami (55-50) all but eliminated them in the race for an ACC Championship, before barely surviving a hellish comeback from Florida State in last Tuesday’s 75-70 victory. Leading 34-23 at Halftime, the hosts struggled throughout the final twenty minutes, as their lack of depth became very apparent with a mere two points coming from their Bench. Simply put, this is one such game that they had to grind out; Duke shot 45.8% from the field, including 7-of-18 from downtown (38.9%), while more importantly holding their own with the Seminoles on the glass (Minus-1), where they made the most of their dozen offensive rebounds. Both Tatum and Kennard suffered poor shooting nights (38.5% apiece), only to be saved by Jackson (twenty-two points) and the star of Senior Night, Jefferson, who in his final game was all over the place with fourteen points on 6-of-6 shooting (100.0%), eleven rebounds, a steal, and four blocks. Credit goes to their defense here, for Coach K’s charges held a team that torched them for eighty-eight points in their previous meeting to just seventy on 41.5% shooting overall, making a concerted effort to keep them out of the paint, relegating the visiting side to a miserable 22-of-52 shooting from within the three-point arc (42.3%). In the end, it was a hard game to watch in many respects, as both teams combined for just fifteen assists, while committing twenty-five turnovers between them.
Berry has led North Carolina’s three-point renaissance this season, shooting a team-best 40.9% from beyond the arc, with the team shooting a much-improved 37.0% this season.
Meanwhile, with a win tonight, North Carolina (25-6, 13-4 in ACC) can secure their second consecutive Atlantic Coast Conference Regular Season Title, as they lead Notre Dame by one game in the league standings. Now, with the Fighting Irish in action earlier in the day, the Tar Heels could very well be crowned Conference Champions before taking the court against their bitter rivals from Durham, but we doubt that that will have any bearing on how they approach tonight’s game. After all, this is only the most celebrated blood feud in the history in the sport. In all likelihood, there is little more than vengeance on the minds of the Tar Heels who in their last meeting with the Blue Devils let a highly competitive contest get away from them in the latter stages of the aforementioned 86-78 defeat. On that night in early February, there wasn’t much defense to be found as both teams shot above 52.0% from the field, but the difference came from beyond the arc, where the hosts knocked down a scorching 13-of-27 attempts (48.1%), while the visiting side could manage just 4-of-12 shooting from downtown (33.3%). That’s a pretty sizeable twenty-seven point difference, folks. In recent years, this has been one of the team’s most persistent weaknesses, even during last year’s run to the National Championship Game; in 2015-2016, Roy Williams charges were neither prolific nor efficient from the perimeter, shooting a miserable 32.7%, ranking 268th out of 351 teams in Division One, while attempting 17.1 treys per game (144th Overall). However, in 2016-2017, it appears that Williams and his Staff have finally addressed this issue, as the Heels have improved significantly in this regard, netting 37.0% of their attempts (92nd Overall), while jacking up 19.2 threes per game (192nd Overall). This has brought some sorely-needed balance to a team that has thrived predominantly on transition baskets and the second-chance opportunities. Juniors Justin Jackson (18.4 PTS, 45.6%, 39.3% 3FG, 4.7 REB, 2.6 AST) and Joel Berry (14.7 PTS, 44.7% FG, 40.9% 3FG, 3.3 REB, 3.8 AST, 1.4 STL) have been by far and away the most prolific of their number from downtown, with the duo accounting for 67.5% of the team’s 228 total three-point field goals. As we all know, perimeter shooting stretches the defense, which in turn creates spacing for the big fellas to operate, so for those who may be worried that Williams’ charges may be selling out with the money ball, fear not, for North Carolina still gets a ton of reps inside the three-point arc, ranking first in the ACC in both two-point field goal attempts (45.2) and field goals of that variety (22.7). Granted, a lot of that is due to the fact that they get out in transition better than most, but their relentless work on the glass continues to be the foundation of their offensive success; the Heels lead the ACC in rebounding of all varieties, including total (42.9), defensive (26.8), and offensive (16.2) boards. So often opponents find themselves getting just one look at the basket before chancing possession, placing an emphasis on maximizing opportunities, which is were Duke burned them when they last met. And speaking of the Devils, perhaps these guys were looking too far ahead of this rematch, for they completely overlooked Virginia on Monday Night in what turned out to be one of the most unattractive games in recent memory. Just two weeks after housing the Cavaliers in a 65-41 blowout, the Heels traveled to Charlottesville and put out an uninspired performance in a 53-43 loss. Both teams shot below 36.0% from the field, with the visitors falling prey to the home side’s knack for mucking a game up. Think about it for a minute, North Carolina lost a game by ten points in which they held their opponent to 32.2% shooting from the field! The difference proved to be the Cavs giving the visiting side a dose of their own medicine, harassing them into fourteen turnovers and securing ten offensive rebounds, leading to ten more field goal attempts over the duration of the battle. Only the aforementioned Berry managed to score in double-figures (twelve points on 44.4% shooting), while the rest of the starting five could muster just fifteen points. This is a team that averages 85.0 points per game (11th Overall), folks, and to put things in perspective they’ve dropped forty-three points in A HALF on a number of occasions this year. We’re gonna go out on a limb and predict that they’ll score a bit more than that tonight…
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