7:09 PM EST, CBS – Line: Michigan -1, Over/Under: 148
Wagner picked a great time to have a career day, scoring 26 points against Louisville, who had no answers for him in the paint during the second half of Sunday’s 73-69 victory.
If you like offensive basketball, then look no further than tonight’s Sweet Sixteen matchup, as the Third-Seeded Oregon Ducks meet the Seventh-Seeded Michigan Wolverines at Sprint Center in Kansas City, Missouri, where there are sure to be plenty of points scored. In many ways, Michigan (26-11, 10-8 in Big Ten) is by far and away the most unlikely team to be here at this juncture of the NCAA Tournament. No, they’re not the lowest seed remaining, but it’s safe to say that only a month ago their prospects for even receiving an invitation were murky at best. However, John Beilein’s charges have proven to be quite the resilient bunch, particularly after the life-threatening circumstances the team experienced when their plane slid off of the tarmac en route to the Big Ten Tournament, which would serve as the catalyst to their recent stretch of seven consecutive victories. The Wolverines miraculously strung together four straight wins to earn a Big Ten Tournament Championship, and managed to carry that momentum with them into the NCAA Tournament proper, surviving a tightly-contested 92-91 encounter with Tenth-Seeded Oklahoma State, before shocking Second-Seeded Louisville in a 73-69 upset in the Round of 32. Trailing by as many as ten points in the earlier moments of the Second Half, Michigan dug in and clawed their way back into the contest, mainly on the strength of young big man Moritz Wagner (12.2 PTS, 56.9% FG, 40.9% 3FG, 4.1 REB, 1.1 STL), who baffled the Cardinals with a career-high twenty-six points on 11-of-14 shooting from the field (78.6%), along with three rebounds, an assist, and a pair of steals, while nailing a crucial three-pointer late to give his team the lead for good. After a rough first half, Beilein’s troops eventually cracked Louisville’s vaunted defense over the final twenty minutes of action, shooting 49.1% from the field, including 22-of-50 (55.0%) within the three-point arc, and 6-of-17 (35.3%) beyond it, while most importantly NOT falling into the clutches of their opponent’s pressure, committing just six turnovers. With that said, they clipped the Cards’ wings on the defensive end, rendering them impotent from the perimeter (5-of-20, 25.0%), and harassing them into nearly as many turnovers (eleven) as they managed assists (twelve). However, while Louisville has been an inconsistent offensive team throughout the term, tonight’s opponent, Oregon, is a different kind of beast altogether, which should really test this team’s resolve on the defensive end of the court. On the surface, the Wolverines appear to be a stout defensive unit, permitting a mere 66.3 points on the season (45th Overall) and 69.2 points in conference play (3rd in Big Ten), but further analysis reveals that they have in fact offered very little resistance in this regard. The opposition has shot a blistering 46.6% from the field against Beilein’s outfit this season, ranking 306th in the country (out of 351), with no team in the Big Ten allowing higher percentage shooting to boot (48.2%), with their defense inside the perimeter proving to be their major fault; Michigan has relinquished 50.2% shooting on two-point field goals (231st Overall) this year, including 52.4% in conference play (13th in Big Ten). And not to pile on, but they haven’t been much better in terms of defending the three-pointer either; despite yielding a relatively low number of treys (216, 83rd Overall), opponents have nailed a high percentage of their opportunities, netting 37.5% of all attempts, 305th in the country. Needless to say, those percentages do not lend towards the theory of defensive consistency. Look no further than their victory over Oklahoma State as evidence of their struggles on the defensive end; it was truly a case of whichever team had the ball last, was likely to win, as the Cowboys torched the Wolverines throughout the affair, shooting a white-hot 54.7% from the field, including 28-of-48 (58.3%) from within the arc, and 7-of-16 (43.8%) beyond it. Their saving grace, you ask? The Money Ball, which Michigan exorcised relentlessly, knocking down sixteen of their twenty-nine three-pointers (55.2%), outscoring Oklahoma State by twenty-seven points in that regard. We have a feeling that these guys are going to have shoot their way out of this one, folks…
Brooks has had to help carry the load with Boucher out for the season, scoring 19 points in Oregon’s 75-72 victory over Rhode island last weekend.
Meanwhile, Oregon (31-5, 16-2 in Pac-12) returns to the Sweet Sixteen for the third consecutive year, with designs on advancing even further after bowing out in the Elite Eight in the 2015 NCAA Tournament. Now in his seventh year on the job, Dana Altman has built the Ducks into a perennial fixture this time of year, with five straight tourney appearances, including four stays lasting into the Second Weekend. However, this time around, it seems like this team is playing with house money as they were dealt a cruel and what many thought would be a crippling blow, as Senior Forward Chris Boucher (11.8 PTS, 52.4% FG, 35.0% 3FG, 6.1 REB, 2.5 BLK) suffered a torn ACL during Oregon’s 73-65 victory over California in the Semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament, effectively ending both his season and his career. The rangy, slender 6’10” big man has been one of the finest shot-blockers in the country, while also proving capable of stretching opposing defenses with his sweet perimeter shooting, creating valuable spacing for his teammates as they relentlessly cut to the rim. He was a huge reason as to why the Ducks ranked first in the country in Blocked Shots (6.4), and relegated the opposition to a scant 46.0% shooting from within the three-point arc (60th Overall). Basically, his absence was expected to leave quite a void for Altman and his Staff to fill, but three games later, it appears that all this fretting about their longevity in the tourney has been much ado about nothing. After obliterating Fourteenth-Seeded Iona in the First Round (93-72), they had to survive a scare from a feisty Rhode Island team, whom they outlasted in a tightly-contested 75-72 affair. Trailing throughout the First Half and for a large part of the Second, Oregon put their foot on the gas en route to outscoring the Rams 36-27 over the final twenty minutes of play. While their opponents shot a blistering 50.8% from the field and harassed them into fourteen turnovers, the game was ultimately decided in favor of the higher seed in three respects. First, Altman’s troops earned a slight advantage from the perimeter, where they knocked down 7-of-16 three-pointers (43.8%), one more than the opposition. Second, they were clearly the more aggressive side in terms of getting to the rim, and were rewarded for it with twenty-seven free-throw attempts, of which they made eighteen (66.7%), twelve more than their counterparts, who managed just 6-of-8 shooting from the stripe. Lastly, that aggressiveness extended to the boards, where they outrebounded Rhode Island 33-26, amassing thirteen offensive rebounds, leading to a wealth of second-chance opportunities. With Boucher out, Tyler Dorsey (14.0 PTS, 46.4% FG, 40.2% 3FG, 3.4 REB, 1.8 AST) exploded for a game-high twenty-seven points on an unreal 9-of-10 shooting (90.0%), including 4-of-5 from downtown (80.0%), while adding another five rebounds, three assists, and three steals, with Dillon Brooks (16.4 PTS, 50.5% FG, 40.9% 3FG, 3.1 REB, 2.7 AST, 1.1 STL) struggling a bit en route to nineteen points on 7-of-20 shooting (35.0%), including 2-of-6 from three (33.3%), but put in a ton of work on the glass with seven rebounds, including five of the offensive variety. As we alluded to earlier, this is one of the more prolific and potent offensive teams in the country, averaging 79.4 points (44th Overall) on 48.4% shooting from the field (19th Overall), including 54.9% from within the three-point arc (19th Overall) and 37.9% beyond it (51st Overall), while dishing out 16.1 assists (14th Overall). In hindsight, we shouldn’t have been surprised that they’d be able to carry on in such a manner without the presence of Boucher, for there are four other players on the roster that average in double-figures, with Junior Forward Jordan Bell (10.8 PTS, 62.6% FG, 8.3 REB, 1.8 AST, 1.3 STL, 2.1 BLK) helping remedy his teammate’s loss on the deterrent front, swatting 2.1 shots per game.
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