8:30 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Chiefs -7, Over/Under: 42.5
Siemian has been maddeningly inconsistent this season, leading a Turnover-prone Offense that has committed six in the last two games alone.
Classic AFC West Rivals clash tonight at Arrowhead Stadium, as the division-leading Kansas City Chiefs look to halt their losing streak as they host the Denver Broncos, who are simply looking for some form of consistency on the offensive side of the ball. The 2017 campaign thus far has been difficult to digest for the Broncos (3-3, 2nd in AFC West), who after looking rather impressive heading into their Bye Week with a 3-1 record, has dropped each of their two ensuing outings thank in large part to an Offense that has for all intents and purposes flatlined. Indeed, the days of Peyton Manning spraying over 5,000 Yards and fifty Touchdowns are long gone, for you would be hard-pressed to recognize this underachieving unit that has slumped into one of the league’s worst; through six games, Denver is averaging 18.0 Points (24th Overall) on 362.7 Total Yards (15th Overall), including 248.2 Yards through the air (17th Overall) on 5.7 Net Yards per Attempt (24th Overall), and another 114.5 Yards on the ground (14th Overall) on 4.1 Yards per Carry (15th Overall). Granted the yardage implies a group that is far more middling than described, though none of that production means much when you find yourself sporting one of the NFL’s worst Turnover Margins (Minus-8). Vance Joseph’s charges have committed the third-most Turnovers, coughing up the football a whopping twelve times already (30th Overall), totaling at least two in every contest this season with the exception of one. The last two losses have been particularly disturbing in this regard, as they’ve committed three in each defeat, an inexplicable 23-10 primetime affair against the then-winless New York Giants, followed a week later by an embarrassing 21-0 shutout on the road at the Los Angeles Chargers. Few things can wreck a gameplan like Turnovers can, and the Broncos are recent proof of that; there is perhaps no Offense in the league that needs balance to succeed more than this group, who after churning out a solid 143.0 Rushing Yards in their first four tilts before their Bye, have seen the proverbial Rushing Well run dry averaging a disappointing 57.5 Yards since. Again, this simply isn’t a recipe for success for an attack triggered by Trevor Siemian (63.0%, 245.3 Y/G, 5.68 NY/A, 8 TD, 7 INT), the unheralded Seventh Round Pick who earned the starting gig two years ago in the wake of Manning’s Retirement. This kid is very much like some of those classic Denver Quarterbacks from the post Elway Era, who were effective when the passing attack was built off of the strength of a consistent ground game, only to become a completely different story when that wasn’t the case. His issues become readily apparent when you take a look at the dichotomy of his performances between the wins and losses; in three victories, the 25-Year Old has been efficient, completing 55-of-86 Attempts (63.95%) for an average of 209.7 Yards per Game on 7.31 Yards per Attempt, while tossing seven Touchdowns in comparison to just two Interceptions, and in three defeats he’s connected on 78-of-125 Attempts (62.40%) for 280.7 Yards on 6.74 Yards per Attempt, with one Touchdown and five Interceptions. You’ll notice that he’s thrown the ball significantly more in the losses (41.7 Attempts per Game) than in the wins (28.7 Attempts per Game), serving as proof that the less Siemian throws, the more successful that Denver becomes. So what do you do if you’re Joseph and Co.? In short, there are no easy answers in the Mile High City, for many would argue that the reason that Siemian continues to be the Starter despite his inconsistent production is completely due to their being no clear better option. Do you bench him in favor of Paxton Lynch, whom you drafted at the end of the First Round in 2016, though hasn’t developed at a rate befitting his selection, and has been all-in-all unimpressive in limited duties thus far? Or how about Brock Osweiler, who helped keep the ship afloat three years ago while Manning nursed a bum wheel, though endured a horrendous tenure in Houston a year ago, only to be reacquired as a Free Agent after being cut by the woeful Browns? No wonder Siemian looks so attractive to the Coaching Staff. Either way, these declining performances only serve to negate the continued brilliance of the Defense, which has given up a league-low 258.5 Total Yards (1st Overall), and is the only unit in the NFL thus far to relegate every one of their opponents below 300 Yards of Total Offense. Now just imagine how much better they’d be if their cohorts on the opposite side of the ball could actually sustain some drives and NOT turn the ball over forcing Von Miller (20 TKL, 7.0 SK, 1 PD) and Co. to defend a short field…
Smith has been outstanding in 2017, throwing 15 Touchdowns and no Interceptions, while leading the NFL in Completion Percentage (72.4%).
Meanwhile, the bloom is off the proverbial flower for the Chiefs (5-2, 1st in AFC West), who after racing out to a 5-0 start to the campaign, now find themselves searching for a way out of a two-game losing streak. Now, we’re by no means suggesting that it’s time to hit the panic button in Kansas City, for with a win tonight coupled with the relative struggles of the rest of the division, Andy Reid’s charges will be in a rather comfortable pole position to earn their second consecutive AFC West Championship. So what’s gone wrong for this team whom just two weeks ago appeared to be head and shoulders above the rest of the league? The issue is two-fold, and certainly bears watching moving forward. In many ways, the Chiefs’ Offense is similar to that of their counterparts tonight, in the fact that they really require balance in order to be successful. While they’ve certainly been more explosive than they’ve been at any point of Reid’s successful tenure with the Franchise, they need to be able to run the ball well so that Alex Smith and Co. can create huge plays in the passing game. In their five victories this season, they’ve churned out a stellar 156.2 Rushing Yards, which had helped parlay into a healthy 32.8 Points per Game, while in their two losses they’ve been able to gain just 61.0 Yards on the ground, in turn leading to 26.5 Points per Game. Unlike Denver, this isn’t a case in which they’ve had to abandon the run due to falling behind after a litany of Turnovers, for this unit has been EXTREMELY careful with the football, having not turned it over since Week One at New England. The problem has been one of attrition, for Reid has slowly lost a number of key contributors on this side of the ball; Starting Offensive Linemen Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (Knee) and Mitch Morse (Foot) have been plagued by various ailments, while the Backfield has been laid low with Tailbacks Charcandrick West (Concussion) and Spencer Ware (Knee) out of action in recent weeks. Rookie Tailback Kareem Hunt (124 CAR, 717 YDS, 4 TD, 25 REC, 285 YDS, 2 TD), who had burst on the scene averaging 155.0 All-Purpose Yards through the first five games, has come back to the pack a bit, putting forth 113.5 Yards from Scrimmage in the two losses, and hasn’t breached the End Zone in four weeks. All this has served to do is place even more pressure upon the shoulders of the aforementioned Smith (72.4%, 282.7 Y/G, 7.41 NY/A, 15 TD, 0 INT), who has been sensational this season, and should be considered among the prime contenders for the MVP award at the midway point of the campaign. Long criticized as the stereotypical Game Manager, the twelfth-year veteran has quite frankly never looked better, posting career-highs in Completion Percentage (72.4%), Yards per Attempt (8.7), and Passer Rating (120.5) among others, while guiding an Offense that has been a revelation this year, scoring 29.6 Points per Game (3rd Overall) on a whopping 411.7 Total Yards (2nd Overall). Simply put, he was outstanding in last week’s 31-30 loss at Oakland, torching the Raiders’ beleaguered Defense on 25-of-36 Passing for 342 Yards, and three Touchdowns. With all that said, that aforementioned attrition has also begun to show signs of effecting the Defense, which has shown more and more holes with each passing week. The injury situation here is palpable as well, with All-Pro Safety Eric Berry (Achilles) going down for the season in the Opener, while Edge Rusher extraordinaire Justin Houston (29 TKL, 5.5 SK, 1 FR, 1 TD) has been plagued by knee soreness in recent weeks with his status for tonight’s meeting with Denver currently unsettled. It’s been a slow burn here, folks, for Kansas City has relinquished more and more yardage with each passing week, going all the way back to Week Four, which was coincidentally the last time they were featured on Monday Night Football; in successive weeks they’ve allowed 331, 392, 439, and 505 Total Yards, while the proliferation of early season Turnovers has diminished, with three in the last four games in comparison to five in the first three contests. Fortunately, they’ve had a good deal of time to rest, taking advantage of the Mini-Bye Week that playing on a Thursday Night provides, and given the offensive struggles of their opponent, a matchup with the Broncos could be exactly what the doctor ordered for this unit to get back on track; these guys have enjoyed quite a bit of success against Siemian, who has completed a dismal 48.05% of his Passes while taking five Sacks in two losses against the Chiefs.