8:30 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Seahawks -2.5 , Over/Under: 45
After earning the 2016 MVP, Ryan has struggled at times this season, having already thrown more Interceptions (8) than he did a year ago (7).
A rematch of last year’s NFC Division Round caps a Sunday full of quality NFL Action, as the Seattle Seahawks look to avenge their Postseason defeat at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons, who are simply trying to escape the dreaded Super Bowl Hangover before it’s too late. After experiencing the most bitter of possible Super Bowl endings, the Falcons (5-4, 3rd in NFC South) have largely stumbled through the first half the 2017 campaign, as they currently sit in Third Place in the NFC South, and in the greater scheme of things part of a cluster of teams aspiring to claim that final Wild Card spot in the NFC. So what the hell’s gone wrong for Atlanta this year, you ask? Well, it’s basically a case of everything that broke their way a year ago, hasn’t come close to doing so this time around. First, we’ll start with the transition at Offensive Coordinator, where the dynamic Kyle Shanahan (who is now the Head Coach for the San Francisco 49ers) has since been replaced by Steve Sarkisian, which certainly hasn’t gone unnoticed. Under Shanahan, the Offense was a big play machine, but also remained balanced, with a plethora of weapons available in the holster; in 2016, the Falcons averaged a league-best 33.8 Points per Game (1st Overall) on 430.5 Total Yards (2nd Overall), including 310.0 through the air (3rd Overall) and another 120.5 on the ground (5th Overall). Now in 2017, with Sarkisian’s playcalling falling under major scrutiny, this group is putting up 21.9 Points (16th Overall) on 380.0 Total Yards (8th Overall), including 263.6 via the pass (11th Overall) and 116.4 via the run (13th Overall). That’s some pretty serious regression, folks. Furthermore, they’ve seen a significant dropoff in the Red Zone, where they scored a Touchdown on 61.9% of their Attempts (9th Overall), only to hit paydirt on 54.8% of their tries thus far (14th Overall). Granted, this team isn’t nearly as healthy as it was then, with the likes of Pro Bowl Tailback Devonta Freeman (Concussion) and starting Guard Andy Levitre (Knee) each missing time with various ailments, but anyone who has seen this group operate can tell you that there just seems to be something off about them. And no more is that apparent than with Matt Ryan (66.6%, 263.6 Y/G, 7.21 NY/A, 13 TD, 8 INT). The reining MVP is coming off a historical season in which he led the league in Touchdown Percentage (7.1%), Yards per Attempt (9.3), Yards per Completion (13.3), Net Yards per Attempt (8.25), and QBR (83.3), while throwing for a franchise record 4,944 Yards with Thirty-Eight Touchdowns in comparison to just Seven Interceptions. Again, there has been a noticeable lack of synergy between he and Sarkisian, with his numbers in freefall across the board, with a spike in Turnovers (Eight Interceptions), and a lack of success in pushing the ball downfield. With Shanahan at the controls, Ryan and Co. led the NFL in Net Yards per Attempt (8.2), but without the Playcaller remain a respectable Fifth (7.2), though that still represents a steep decline. And then there is the almighty Turnover Differential. As we all know, most successful teams benefit from a positive differential in takeaways, which Dan Quinn’s charges certainly did a year ago, committing the fewest in the league (Eleven), while forcing Twenty-Two (16th Overall). Nine games into the current term and they’ve already managed to match last year’s total altogether, with the Defense finding it difficult to take away possession of the football, registering just Eight Turnovers (28th Overall). So is it any coincidence that in Atlanta’s four losses that they’ve found themselves on the wrong end of a 5-3 Turnover Margin? With all that said, in the face of how poorly they’ve played at times, this team still finds themselves in an advantageous position to secure a Wild Card in the NFC, due to their following three games all taking place at Mercedes-Benz Field, and five out of their final seven matchups against the rest of their Division, which appears to be loaded with both the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers sitting at 7-2 apiece, with the latter having already defeated them once this year. Needless to say, the time is now for the Falcons, who managed to take advantage of the Dallas Cowboys in last weekend’s 27-7 drubbing, as Pro Bowl Tailback Ezekiel Elliott was busy serving the first game of his Six-Game Suspension for violating the league’s Personal Conduct Policy. Despite throwing another Interception, Ryan largely cruised along on 22-of-29 Passing for 215 Yards and a pair of Touchdowns, while the Defense flexed their muscle and sacked Dak Prescott a whopping eight times, with six of that total coming courtesy of Adrian Clayborn (16 TKL, 8.0 SK, 2 FF, 1 FR, 1 PD), who had just Two coming into the affair. Then again, playing opposite a healthy Vic Beasley (18 TKL, 4.0 SK, 1 FF), who after leading the league with 15.5 Sacks in 2016 has been hampered by a nagging hip injury, should grant you plenty of opportunities to get to the Quarterback. Well, so should playing against Seattle’s beleaguered Offensive Line for that matter…
With a rash of injuries in the Backfield and now on Defense, Wilson must carry the load of the Offense now more than ever.
Meanwhile, even though the Seahawks (6-3, 2nd in NFC West) remain hot on the heels of the Los Angeles Rams for the top spot in the NFC West (for now at least, given they own the tiebreaker), one can’t help but feel as if the season, and by extension, an era, could be slipping away from them. Let’s forget about their perpetually struggling Offensive Line, which even after the trade for former Houston Texans’ Pro Bowl Left Tackle Duane Brown still looks far too inconsistent to inspire any confidence. And let’s forget about the effect that it has had on Russell Wilson (62.7%, 282.6 Y/G, 6.73 NY/A, 19 TD, 6 INT) and the Offense (23.4 P/G, 383.Y/G), which far too often descends into madness as the elusive Quarterback improvises his way out of sack after sack. The main constant throughout this team’s reign of success (which featured back-to-back Super Bowl appearances in 2013 and 2014) has been the remarkable play of their Defense, which has consistently ranked among the league’s elite in most significant statistical categories since 2013. In fact, they became the first unit in NFL history to lead the league in Scoring Defense in four consecutive years, which is an impressive feat unto itself. However, this season may have signified the end of the fabled Legion of Boom, which due to age and an alarming amount of injuries looks to be in regression, and given the news that has since been released over the weekend, their demise could be further hastened. In last Thursday’s 22-16 victory over the Arizona Cardinals, Pete Carroll and his troops lost Three-Time All-Pro Cornerback Richard Sherman (35 TKL, 2 INT, 7 PD, 1 FR) for the rest of the season, after the veteran ruptured his Achilles late in the contest. Further compounding matters, was the news Friday that fellow Pro Bowl Defensive Back Kam Chancellor (48 TKL, 1 FF, 1 Safety), could also miss the rest of the campaign thanks to a lingering neck injury, with the Safety’s hard-hitting presence sure to be missed. Now, keep in mind that another of their number, and perhaps the most prominent, Three-Time All-Pro Safety Early Thomas (38 TKL, 2 INT, 1 TD, 4 PD, 1 FF) has been playing on a sore Hamstring for what seems like months now, even missing a pair of games in October. That’s 3/4 of arguably the finest Secondary in the NFL, folks, which is not a recipe for success, particularly when you’re counting on your Defense to keep things close enough to win games. One look at the numbers will tell you the whole story; Seattle has allowed 18.3 Points (5th Overall) on 318.9 Total Yards (12th Overall), including 217.9 versus the Pass (13th Overall) on 5.6 Net Yards per Attempt (9th Overall), and another 101.0 against the Run (10th Overall) on 4.0 Yards per Carry (15th Overall), while forcing Fifteen Turnovers (8th Overall). Granted, most teams in the league would gladly take that kind of output from the defense, but for Carroll and Co. it represents a once dominant unit regressing to just really good. And yes, while they remain impressive in key situations, such as Third Down Defense (35.5%, 10th Overall) and Red Zone Defense (43.5%, 4th Overall), can we really expect them to maintain those numbers without the likes of Sherman and Chancellor? There’s a really good chance they could be exploited tonight, for the last time these two teams met, a decisive 36-20 Falcons’ victory in the NFC Division Round of the Playoffs, the Seahawks were torched for Four Touchdowns, Twenty-Eight First Downs, and 422 Total Yards, with the aforementioned Ryan carving them up for 338 Yards and three Touchdowns on 26-of-37 Passing. Lastly, the prevailing feeling that this team’s time has indeed come, is due to a hallmark of all successful teams that reach the end of their run; with the Trades for former Jets’ Defensive End Sheldon Richardson and the aforementioned Brown, Management has mortgaged their future to prolong their present success, gaining these veterans at the expense of a wealth of Draft Picks, particularly in the case of the latter. With that action, Seattle has entered Win-Now Mode, which if you ask most teams, is the only mode that is relevant these days. After all, whether you’re planning for the short-term or the long-term, the edge of the cliff is always just a few steps away.