Our 2019 NFL Preview marches on into the Midwest, where after getting oh, so close to Super Bowl LIII, the Kansas City Chiefs plot to hoist the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy since 1969. In a season that was dominated by prolific Offenses, the Chiefs were the most explosive, led by Patrick Mahomes, who in just his second season in the NFL torched the league with Fifty Touchdown Passes. However, their magical run ended in heartbreaking fashion, falling to the eventual Super Bowl Champion, New England Patriots, in overtime of the AFC Title Game at Arrowhead Stadium. Now, with a completely renovated Defense to provide some sorely needed balance, will Kansas City finally get over the hump? Let’s take a look at what 2019 likely has in store for the reigning AFC West Champions…
How About an Encore
In just his second season in the NFL, and his first as the undisputed Starter, Patrick Mahomes (66.0%, 5,097 YDS, 8.13 NY/A, 50 TD, 12 INT, 82.0 QBR) put on a show in 2019 that hasn’t been produced by a Sophomore Quarterback since Dan Marino put the league on notice back in 1984. At just 23-Years Old, Mahomes went on to lead the league in a slew of passing categories, including Touchdowns (50) and QBR (82.0), while throwing for a franchise record 5,097 Yards, and averaging a whopping 8.13 Net Yards per Attempt. Furthermore, he threw at least Two Touchdowns in all but two games, and even tossed three or more on ten occasions. As a result, he earned a number of awards, including a trip to the Pro-Bowl, First Team All-Pro and Offensive Player of the Year honors, and most importantly, Most Valuable Player. Indeed, after such a statistically overwhelming campaign, the question is what Mahomes can do for an encore? With nearly every member of their explosive Offense returning intact, expectations will be nothing short of a trip to the Super Bowl, with the young Quarterback expected to continue to improve given his phenomenal physical tools and his Head Coach, Andy Reid, continuing to devise ways to take advantage of them. He may not throw Fifty Touchdowns (which would be a first in NFL History), but then again, he probably won’t have to, for as we’re about to explain, his Supporting Cast is about as good as it gets…
The Greatest Show on…
Perhaps there is something in the water out in Missouri, for they’ve had a habit of their football teams having some outrageously prolific Offenses. Like the St. Louis Rams before them, the 2018 Chiefs were absolutely frightening on the offensive side of the football, leading the league in both Points (35.3) and Total Yards (436.2), along with Touchdown Passes (50) and Net Yards per Attempt (8.14). Furthermore, they logged fifteen scoring plays of twenty or more yards, including eight that went fifty yards or more. Indeed, Kansas City is capable of taking it to the house at any moment, with the aforementioned Mahomes possessing the rare arm strength to completely utilize the weapons at his disposal. Chief among them is Tyreek Hill (87 REC, 1,479 YDS, 17.0 Y/R, 12 TD), who last season proved without a shadow of a doubt that he is the most explosive player in the league; the speed demon literally ran away from the pack, averaging the most Yards per Touch in the NFL (15.0), accumulating a whopping 1,630 Total Yards from Scrimmage. After his Domestic Violence Case was dropped by the league in July, you can expect the All-Pro Receiver to continue terrorizing Defenses this fall. And then there’s Travis Kelce (103 REC, 1,336 YDS, 13.0 Y/R, 10 TD), who emerged as the league’s top Tight End, setting career-highs in a number of categories including Receptions (103), Receiving Yards (1,336), and Receiving Touchdowns (10). Also, Sammy Watkins (40 REC, 519 YDS, 13.0 Y/R, 3 TD) still lurks on the Depth Chart, while the club added another speedster, Mecole Hardman, in the NFL Draft, meaning that Mahomes will not be lacking in quality targets. The only question mark is how the Chiefs will go about replacing the versatile, Kareem Hunt (181 CAR, 824 YDS, 4.6 Y/C, 7 TD), who after a Pro Bowl campaign, was promptly cut after the Tailback was suspended due to an ugly act of Domestic Violence. In an attempt to replace him, Reid signed Carlos Hyde (172 CAR, 571 YDS, 3.3 Y/C, 5 TD), who was cut by the Jaguars after they acquired him via trade with the Cleveland Browns in late October.
Getting Defensive
As dominant as the Chiefs were on the offensive side of the football, the reason that they ultimately failed to advance to the Super Bowl was their abysmal Defense, which in 2019 was by and large one of the worst units in the league. Kansas City relinquished an average of 26.3 Points (24th Overall) on an embarrassing 405.5 Total Yards (31st Overall), including 273.4 Yards against the Pass (31st Overall) on 6.4 Net Yards per Attempt (12th Overall), and another 132.1 Yards versus the Run (27th Overall) on 5.0 Yards per Carry (31st Overall). Sure, they managed to generate plenty of big plays, totaling Twenty-Seven Takeaways (8th Overall) and a league-best Fifty-Two Sacks, but when they absolutely needed it, their Defense betrayed them in the AFC Championship Game, where the Patriots carved them up for a maddening 524 Total Yards, a contest in which the hosts simply couldn’t get off the field when the eventual Champs held possession. And it’s with that said that Reid went about completely overhauling this unit, starting with relieving former Defensive Coordinator, Bob Sutton, of his duties, and replacing him with his old colleague, Steve Spagnuolo, who spent eight years on Reid’s Staff in Philadelphia, and famously coordinated the New York Giants’ Super Bowl Defense back in 2007. Spagnuolo’s first act was to transition his charges back into a more simplistic 4-3 alignment, with Management going out and providing him with players that are far better suited for his system; the Chiefs acquired Pro Bowl Defensive End, Frank Clark (41 TKL, 10 TFL, 27 QBH, 13.0 SK, 3 FF, 2 FR, 1 INT, 2 PD), in a Draft Day deal with the Seattle Seahawks, while also trading for Darron Lee (74 TKL, 5 TFL, 2 QBH, 3 INT, 1 TD, 5 PD), a young, athletic Linebacker, who was formerly a First Round Pick of the New York Jets. All-Pro Defensive Back, Tyrann Mathieu (89 TKL, 5 TFL, 4 QBH, 3.0 SK, 1 FR, 2 INT, 8 PD), was signed in Free Agency to bolster a Secondary that was burned on demand, and should prove indispensable thanks to his ability to play both Cornerback and Safety.
2019 Forecast: 11-5
When you go back and think about how the Kansas City Chiefs’ season ended, one can’t help but become fixated on that moronic Off-Sides call on Fourth Down in the AFC Championship Game. Think about that for a moment, folks: if not for an egregious mental error, this team would have been playing in Super Bowl LIII, where they probably would have been branded as favorites. And that was with a Defense that as we saw time and time again, couldn’t stop a proverbial nose bleed when it had to. Now heading into 2019, the Defense should be much-improved given the new system and the personnel that they acquired to execute it, meaning that the Chiefs shouldn’t have to rely on Mahomes & Co. to score over Thirty-Five Points per Game. Granted, their are still some lingering questions to be answered. Despite his accolades, Spagnuolo really hasn’t done much since that storied stint with the Giants over a decade ago, and even with the additions of Clark, Lee, and Mathieu to his Defense, there are still A LOT of questions at Cornerback. And there’s also the matter of replacing Hunt, who played a huge role as a Receiver out of the Backfield, which is a dimension that his replacement, the aforementioned Hyde has rarely brought to the field. Furthermore, the rest of the competition in the AFC West has also improved, and with a hellish schedule to close things out, it’s unlikely that Kansas City will match their total of twelve wins from a year ago, but they’ll come close, which may just make them the class of the AFC.
