Our jaunt through the NFC North brings us to the Motor City, where the Detroit Lions continue to rebuild under the watchful eye of Matt Patricia, who is entering his second season with the franchise. Few teams underwent the volume of change that Detroit did in 2018, both schematically and personnel-wise, with that transition carrying over to this past Offseason, when this club continued to overhaul their roster with designs on granting their Head Coach the players he needs to succeed. As a result, the Lions experienced some serious growing pains last season, losing ten games for the first time since 2012. However, revolutions rarely happen overnight, folks, and with that in mind, where will this team finish come December? Will Patricia’s New England DNA indeed prove to be infectious, or are he and his charges still another year away? By all means, we implore you to read on and find out…
Speaking of a Revolution
Though the past decade of football in Detroit was by far and away more successful than the one that preceded it, the Lions were definitely in need of a change. Under Jim Schwartz, they were prolific yet undisciplined, and under his successor, Jim Caldwell, they became more efficient, but ultimately grew stale on both sides of the football. So with that said, General Manager, Bob Quinn, went to the club that spawned him, the New England Patriots, and hired their longtime Defensive Coordinator, Matt Patricia, as his new Head Coach, with designs of putting together a revolution of their own. Granted, the track record for Bill Belichick’s Assistants once they escape his lengthy shadow is murky at best, and that is mostly due to the fact that so many of them fail in the process of transforming their new team to mirror their previous one. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is where Patricia finds himself. Indeed, Year One of his Bearded Administration proved to be predictably jarring, with the Offense stalling as the Head Coach and his Offense Coordinator, Jim Bob Cooter, a holdover from the previous regime, failed to get on the same page, while the Defense ultimately lacked the personnel required to run his preferred scheme. For all intents and purposes, Year Two should see a smoother, more advanced transition, with the Defense looking better suited to meet his expectations (more on them in a bit), and incoming Offensive Coordinator, Darrell Bevell, arriving to further cultivate the attack, and most importantly get Franchise Quarterback, Matthew Stafford back on track. Either way, given the moves made during the Offseason, it appears that there is a real synergy between the Front Office and the Coaching Staff which was sorely lacking over the past two years. Now all they’ll have to do is start winning more games, with one player in particular likely having a considerable say on the matter…
Fixing Matthew Stafford
Though he’s only 31-Years Old, we wouldn’t blame you for failing to realize that Matthew Stafford (66.1%, 3,777 YDS, 5.92 NY/A, 21 TD, 11 INT, 50.9 QBR) has been in the league for ten years now, having accumulated some seriously gaudy statistics along the way. However, 2018 was far from the Pro-Bowl Quarterback’s finest showing, with the veteran appearing to be a player in serious decline across the board; for the first time since participating in just three games back in 2010, the former No. One Overall Pick totaled below 4,000 Passing Yards, and 6.00 Net Yards per Attempt, while posting his second-lowest Touchdown total (21) and QBR (50.9) in nearly a decade. The aforementioned Cooter was retained primarily because of the positive relationship that he enjoyed with his pupil, but that couldn’t save him from ultimately losing his job. In all fairness, Stafford has been a rather interesting case for years now, for after throwing for a staggering 5,038 Yards and Forty-One Touchdowns back in 2011, he’s never come close to replicating that insane mixture of productivity and efficiency. Under the Schwartz administration it was all about stretching the field, while the aforementioned Caldwell endeavored to corral him in an attempt to make him more efficient, all while his weapons and protection eroded. Patricia’s plan is more conventional: help his Quarterback by gifting him the luxury of better protection and a more reliable running game, which have both been an afterthought in Detroit for years now. And in this vein, Bevell should help immensely; though he’s widely remembered as the playcaller who blew Super Bowl IL (coincidentally against Patricia’s Patriots), the veteran Coordinator has enjoyed a great deal of success in previous stops (Minnesota and Seattle), employing balanced attacks that help the Quarterback via Play-Action built upon a strong ground game. An aging Brett Favre once thrived in his scheme, and Russell Wilson became an MVP candidate in it. With the aforementioned Quinn scouring the Offseason for upgrades that better suit his vision of the Offense, particularly Tight End, T.J. Hockenson (drafted No. 8 Overall), it will be on Stafford to connect with his new OC, for with a potential Out in his contract looming after 2020, Quinn and Patricia could revisit those rumored trade talks that persisted early in Free Agency.
Building, Building, Building…
As Bevell looks to get Stafford back on track, Patricia, alongside veteran Defensive Coordinator, Paul Pasqualoni, look to continue to rebuild the Defense into a unit that better fits the Head Coach’s vision. Coming from New England, Patricia no doubt wishes this group to be bigger and more physical, but at the same time tactically versatile, which really ran counter to how they were built by the previous regime. With that said, they really began to come together as the season progressed, finishing 2018 ranked Tenth in Total Defense (335.0 Y/G), Eighth against the Pass (224.9 Y/G) and Tenth against the Run (110.1 Y/G). However, where they were lacking was in the category of big plays; Detroit ranked next-to-last in Takeaways (14), Twenty-Ninth in Interceptions (7), and Twelfth in Sacks (43). And it’s with that said that the mandate throughout the Offseason was to acquire players that are better suited for the scheme, or for that matter more familiar with it, which ultimately led Quinn and Patricia to Trey Flowers (57 TKL, 9 TFL, 20 QBH, 7.5 SK, 3 FF, 2 PD), one of the premier Edge Rushers available in Free Agency. Over the past three years with the Patriots, Flowers racked up Twenty-One Sacks, Twenty-Five Tackles for Loss, and Fifty-Nine Quarterback Hits, along with Five Forced Fumbles, playing a key role for their Defense, shifting back and forth between Outside Linebacker and Defensive End depending on the circumstances at that time. Given that he played under Patricia for the first three years of his career, the 25-Year Old Super Bowl Champion should hit the ground running for the Lions, who quickly inked him to a lucrative five-year, $90 Million Contract with $56 Million in total guarantees. His presence could very well end up having a Khalil Mack-like effect on the rest of this unit, which is not without talent; Nose Tackle, Damon Harrison (50 TKL, 5 TFL, 7 QBH, 3.5 SK, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PD), whom they acquired via trade from the New Giants Midseason, is a perfect fit for this scheme, while Cornerbacks Darius Slay (43 TKL, 1 TFL, 3 INT, 1 TD, 17 PD) and Quandre Diggs (78 TKL, 3 TFL, 1 QBH, 3 INT, 1 TD, 8 PD) are ballhawks in the Secondary.
2019 Forecast: 7-9
Coming into 2019, Detroit is one of the more difficult teams to get a handle on. Based off of the litany of moves that they’ve made during the Offseason, particularly in getting players that have histories with the New England Patriots, it’s rather obvious to see what Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia are trying to do. The additions of Danny Amendola and the aforementioned Flowers make plenty of sense, and should help immediately, while drafting a stud at Tight End like T.J. Hockenson should help both the Passing Game and Running Game immensely. Clearly the Powers that Be envision him becoming a playmaker akin to Rob Gronkowski, which is also an opinion shared by many scouts around the league. However, everything here is going to depend on Stafford, and how he connects with new Offensive Coordinator, Darrell Bevell. Coming off of arguably his worst campaign in a decade, the former Pro-Bowl Quarterback is still only 31-Years Old, and should have plenty of gas left in the tank, but it’s anyone’s guess as to how he transitions to this next stage of his career. If he takes to Bevell’s tutelage and thrives in a more balanced, versatile Offense, then the Lions can absolutely win ten games and challenge for not only a spot in the Playoffs, but the NFC North as well. However, the rest of the Division appears to have reloaded, which makes the margin for error all the more smaller for a club that has been largely average over the past five years. Though they look far better suited to progress under Patricia, our guess is that Detroit is still likely one more year away from resembling a finished product, which means that they’ll have to wait another year before returning to the Playoffs for the first time since 2016.
