We conclude our voyage through the AFC South with the Tennessee Titans, who look to build upon their first year under the Mike Vrabel Regime, in which they narrowly missed the Playoffs. In his first season as Head Coach, Vrabel oversaw a team that was certainly solid on both sides of the football, but ultimately lacked the playmakers to truly contend for a championship. In many ways, Tennessee is at a crossroads, with Vrabel and General Manager, Jon Robinson, planning to insert more of their past New England DNA into the franchise, while Starting Quarterback, Marcus Mariota, enters what can only be described as a crucial campaign for the No. 2 Overall Pick, with talks over an extension likely only to be held if he can impress upon the current brain trust that he is in fact worth further investment. So heading into 2019, will the Titans continue to develop under Vrabel? Will Mariota remain healthy long enough to reach his potential? Will Derrick Henry become a reliable, workhorse, Tailback? Read on and find out, folks…
Running Out of Time
When the Titans selected Marcus Mariota (68.9%, 2,528 YDS, 6.13 NY/A, 11 TD, 8 INT, 53.1 QBR) No. 2 Overall in the 2015 NFL Draft, the former Heisman was intended to lead their franchise out of the doldrums and into a new era of success. After all, he was a posterboy for the new breed of Quarterbacks, who could just as easily beat defenses with his feet as well as his arm, taking residence on your nightly highlight reels. However, after four full seasons, Mariota has proven to be anything close to a solution for the club that drafted him, as he has yet to completely assimilate to the NFL while dealing with nagging injuries that have hindered his growth. That last bit has been particularly troublesome, as the 25-Year Old has dealt with everything from a broken leg ending his 2016 campaign, to persistent elbow and shoulder injuries that altogether have caused him to miss a total of eight games over the past four seasons. It also certainly hasn’t helped that in that period of time, he’s seen three different Head Coaches, with Vrabel arriving last season with a completely different scheme courtesy of Offensive Coordinator, Matt LaFleur, who after a fairly mediocre year with Mariota, was hired as Head Coach of the Green Bay Packers. That was probably for the best, for his young Quarterback never quite looked comfortable in his Offense; Mariota completed a career-high 68.9% of his Attempts, though much of those throws were of the simple dinking and dunking variety, as the Signal-Caller posted career-lows in Yards per Game (180.6), Yards per Attempt (7.6), and Net Yards per Attempt (6.13), which plummeted due to a career-worst Forty-Two Sacks, fifteen more than he took in 2017 in which he started two more games. Granted, he still managed to make plays with his feet, rushing for a career-high 357 Yards on Sixty-Four Carries, but his Eleven Passing Touchdowns were downright pedestrian in this modern era of Offense. This all amounts to a crucial year for Mariota, who will become a Free Agent following the end of the season, and with neither Robinson or Vrabel having strong ties to him, for after all they didn’t draft him, the prospects of him remaining in Tennessee are murky at best. With LaFleur gone, Vrabel hopes that keeping some continuity within the Coaching Staff will help his Quarterback, as longtime Tight Ends Coach, Arthur Smith, was promoted to Offensive Coordinator, with the Assistant tasked not only with unlocking Mariota’s potential, but getting the Offensive Line back to an elite level which would no doubt benefit his Quarterback, but another Heisman winner as well…
Grounded
Mariota isn’t the only Heisman winner approaching the end of his contract in Tennessee, for Derrick Henry (215 CAR, 1,059 YDS, 4.9 Y/C, 12 TD) finds himself in the same boat, with a need to produce in a major way in 2019, lest he find himself playing somewhere else in the future. After spending the first two years of his career as one half of a tandem featuring the now retired DeMarco Murray, Henry was initially slow to take to his role as the Titans’ featured Tailback, though eventually came on like gangbusters towards the end of the season; the 25-Year Old rushed for just 474 Yards and Five Touchdowns on 3.7 Yards per Carry over the course of the first twelve games of the term, only to explode for 585 Yards and Seven Touchdowns on 6.7 Yards per Carry over the final four games of the season. Folks, he went from averaging a paltry 39.5 Yards per Game to a whopping 146.3 , which is really rather remarkable. Granted, 408 Yards of that latter total came in back-to-back wins over the Jaguars and Giants, but that level of production is nothing to dismiss, though it does serve as a constant reminder as to what this guy can do. Vrabel and Smith will be counting on the Tailback to carry that momentum over to 2019, which should be possible as long as Tennessee’s once vaunted Offensive Line can return to form; yes, Offensive Tackles Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin are among the best tandems in the league, but the latter missed the final seven games of the year after tearing his ACL, while the interior of the group performed well below expectations, leading to the departure of both Guards, Quentin Spain and Josh Kline. Veteran Guard, Roger Saffold, arrives via Free Agency from the Los Angeles Rams as a physically-imposing presence in the Run Game, while Nate Davis, a Third Round Pick out of Charlotte will be in the mix for the other starting position. With that said, this group could be slow to come together, given Conklin’s rehab and Lewan’s pending four-game suspension for running afoul of the league’s Substance Abuse Policy, which he is currently appealing.
Building a Monster
As the Titans face some very hard decisions on the offensive side of the football, they can breathe a collective sigh of relief knowing that their Defense has quietly become one of the better units in the league. Already solid upon his arrival, Vrabel, alongside veteran Defensive Coordinator, Dean Pees, further cultivated this unit into a tough, physical group that is likely to remain a proverbial pain in the @## for opponents in the future. In 2018, Tennessee allowed 18.9 Points per Game (3rd Overall) on 333.3 Total Yards (8th Overall), including 216.9 Yards against the Pass (6th Overall) on 6.1 Net Yards per Attempt (8th Overall), along with 116.4 Yards versus the Run (18th Overall) on 4.3 Yards per Carry (15th Overall). Furthermore, they ranked in the Top-10 on Third Down, yielding a conversion rate of just 36.6% (10th Overall), and in the Red Zone, where they permitted the second-lowest success rate in the league at 44.7% (2nd Overall). The only thing that they really lacked was big plays, logging just Seventeen Takeaways (22nd Overall) and Thirty-Nine Sacks (16th Overall). The aforementioned Robinson has done a commendable job of building this unit with some solid talent, while making a concerted effort to keep said talent in house; after racking up Twelve Interceptions over the past two seasons, Tennessee locked up former All-Pro Safety, Kevin Byard (90 TKL, 3 TFL, 5 QBH, 2.0 SK, 4 INT, 8 PD), to a lucrative five-year, $70.5 Million Contract Extension with $31 Million in total guarantees, making the 26-Year Old the highest-paid Defensive Back in NFL History. This of course comes off the heels of a four-year, $60.4 Million Contract Extension for Pro-Bowl Defensive Tackle, Jurrell Casey (62 TKL, 11 TFL, 11 QBH, 7.0 SK, 2 FF, 1 FR), who has long been one of the most criminally underrated players in the league. Cornerbacks Adoree’ Jackson (73 TKL, 2 TFL, 2 FR, 2 INT, 10 PD), Malcolm Butler (69 TKL, 4 TFL, 1 QBH, 1.0 SK, 1 FF, 3 INT, 1 TD, 12 PD), and Logan Ryan (76 TKL, 4 TFL, 5 QBH, 4.0 SK, 8 PD) are a stellar trio in the Secondary, with the latter two arriving via Free Agency from New England in 2018. If last year’s Second Round Pick, Harold Landry (44 TKL, 5 TFL, 14 QBH, 4.5 SK, 1 FF, 2 PD), can emerge as a threat off the edge, then this Defense will only continue to get better under the current regime.
2019 Forecast: 7-9
After a full season of the Mike Vrabel Era, we’d like to tell you that the Tennessee Titans are an easy team to peg heading into 2019, but that’s not the case at all. While the Defense has gradually evolved into a top-tier unit, which should only continue given the Coaching Staff and personnel on hand, the Offense as a whole is a major cause for concern. Mariota has to prove that he can in fact carry the burden of being a Franchise Quarterback, while also managing to simply stay healthy, which is a major reason why the club was so quick to bring former Dolphins’ Quarterback, Ryan Tannehill (64.2%, 1,979 YDS, 5.50 NY/A, 17 TD, 9 INT, 33.1 QBR) in as a Backup via Free Agency. Granted, Tannehill comes with his own injury history, but a real argument can be made that he may be better suited to run the Offense. Get ready for a good old-fashioned Quarterback Controversy in Nashville this fall, folks. While there is also a particular train of thought that the aforementioned LaFeur’s tenure as Offensive Coordinator was in fact counterproductive, disrupting the growth that Mariota and many other key figures on that side of the football had enjoyed under the previous regime, a renewed emphasis on the Run should benefit all involved, though it could be slow to provide results given Lewan’s pending suspension coupled with Conklin’s return from serious injury. Though the schedule doesn’t appear overly difficult, the rest of the AFC South looks formidable, which will likely keep this team from making any significant progress in the Standings, but if Mariota can finally take the next step, and Henry carries his blistering finish to the 2018 campaign over to the new season, then the Titans can absolutely return to the Playoffs, where as they’ve proven in the past, is really anyone’s game. There are just too many ifs to be comfortable about them though…
