8:20 PM EST, NFL Network – Line: Bengals -7.5, Over/Under: 45.5
Week Four of the National Football League kicks off with a battle of No. One Picks, as the surprising Cincinnati Bengals play host to the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars, from Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. As the NFL returns to some semblance of normal in 2021, one of the more intriguing storylines to be found is the reconstruction of the Jaguars (0-3, 4th in AFC South), who look to put one of the most disappointing decades in league history behind them, entering the Offseason as a proverbial blank slate. That’s right, folks, for after stumbling to a miserable 44-116 (.275) record over the past ten years, punctuated by a 1-15 death spiral in 2020, (Owner) Shahid Khan finally decided to clean house. (Head Coach) Doug Marrone? Fired. (Longtime General Manager) David Caldwell? Relieved of his duties. Much of the roster? Turned over. Simply put, there was no franchise over the last decade managed more poorly than Jacksonville, who despite picking in the Top-10 of the NFL Draft in nine of the previous ten years, remained remarkably bereft of both talent and depth. With that said, there was some good to come out of last season’s nightmare run, for as a blank canvas possessing the No. One Overall Pick in the 2021 NFL Draft in a very winnable division, this job suddenly became VERY attractive, particularly when you consider that they were fortunate to secure the top pick in a year in which a generational Quarterback was coming out. And that is PRECISELY how Khan managed to coax (Head Coach) Urban Meyer out of the broadcasting booth and into the NFL, with the venerable collegiate taskmaster finally biting after years of the proverbial carrot dangling in his face. Needless to say, this was quite the turn of the events for the 57-year old, who after winning three National Championships during outrageously successful tenures as Florida and Ohio State, finally decided to make the leap to the professional ranks. Make no mistake, this was one of the most fascinating stories of the Offseason for a variety of reasons. How hands on would he be? How much power would he wield? Would he be calling plays? How would his health hold up? Will he have the patience to see this rebuilding project through to the finish line? Joining him as General Manager is Trent Baalke, who is getting a legitimate second chance after crashing and burning in San Francisco during the first half of the last decade, though there is optimism that the Jags are in good hands here; sure, Baalke infamously clashed with Jim Harbaugh during their tenure together from 2011 to 2014, but he nonetheless played a sizable role in building those talented Niners teams via the Draft. And it’s with that said that the duo did what everyone on planet Earth expected them to do: select Trevor Lawrence (54.2%, 669 YDS, 5.16 NY/A, 5 TD, 7 INT, 23.1 QBR) No. One Overall last Spring. Indeed, you would be hard-pressed to find a more promising Quarterback prospect over the last decade than the 21-year old, who possesses the requisite size (6-6, 213 lb), athleticism, and experience to become the franchise passer that the Jaguars haven’t had since the turn of the century. So with the pieces in place, how has the Urban Meyer Era began in Jacksonville, you ask? Well, at this point it’s yet to get out of the opening blocks as they continue to search for the first win in over a calendar year. Through three games they have struggled mightily on both sides of the football, ranking twenty-third and twenty-ninth respectively in total offense (326.0) and defense (418.0), with by far and away the biggest issue being turnovers; no team in the NFL has committed more giveaways than the Jags with NINE (!!!), which has led to an inescapable differential of Minus-8, which is by far and away the worst in the league. Lawrence has accounted for all of them (7 INT, 2 FL), including a quartet in his team’s 31-19 loss at home to the undefeated Arizona Cardinals last weekend. This one was entertaining on a number of levels, as the hosts ran into Halftime with a 13-7 lead following the longest play in NFL history, a 109-yard touchdown return from Jamal Agnew following a failed 68-yard field goal attempt. Unfortunately, the good times wouldn’t last long beyond intermission, for after intercepting Cardinals Quarterback, Kyler Murray, on their opening drive and taking a 19-10 advantage on (Tailback) James Robinson’s (31 CAR, 160 YDS, 5.2 Y/A, 1 TD) 4-yard score, everything began to unravel as Lawrence saw his second interception of the afternoon returned for a touchdown, followed by back-to-back lost fumbles to conclude their final two drives of game. Ball-security is paramount in the development of a young Quarterback, and one would have to imagine that the outcome of this affair would have been vastly different had the home side not committed so many turnovers, for the Jags were definitely IN this game… up until the point that they weren’t. With that said, these are the growing pains to be endured with a rookie passer, for while it’s certainly frustrating in the moment, this rebuild cannot move into it’s next phase until they pass. And keep this in mind before you start writing off Lawrence at this embryonic stage of his development: only two other Quarterbacks began their careers throwing two interceptions in each of their first three games, and their names are Troy Aikman and Peyton Manning, who by all metrics turned out alright. Patience Urban….
Meanwhile, the Bengals (2-1, T-1st in AFC North) are all too familiar with the current plight of their opponent, for they spent last season enduring the frustrating early stages of a sizeable rebuild, though through three games it appears that they may have indeed moved into phase two. Coming into the 2021 campaign, expectations were NOT high for a team that had stumbled to a miserable 4-11-1 record, their third consecutive last-place finish within one of the league’s toughest divisions. At 6-25-1 (.230) during the Zac Taylor Era, pressure was on Cincinnati to show some signs of significant improvement, lest the 38-year old find himself on the proverbial chopping block. Then again, the Brown Family has proven to be one of the most patient ownership groups in the NFL, for after all, his predecessor (Marvin Lewis) received a remarkable sixteen seasons in Southern Ohio despite amassing a middling 131-122-3 (.518) record and going an even more unremarkable 0-7 in the Playoffs. Any chances of this current group developing further depends almost exclusively on the health of last year’s No. One Overall Pick, Joe Burrow (70.7%, 640 YDS, 6.68 NY/A, 7 TD, 4 INT, 41.2 QBR), who despite showing some flashes of his considerable potential, saw his rookie season come to an abrupt end after ten games due to a torn ACL and MCL. The 2019 Heisman was sacked thirty-two times last year and pressured on roughly a quarter of his drop-backs, with Taylor routinely leaving the franchise’s crown jewel open for punishment. Rumors coming out of Cincinnati over the Summer hinted that the 24-year old was uncomfortable in the pocket and reticent to step up to throw in the face of the oncoming rush. Interestingly, the club decided not to bolster his protection with their first pick in last Spring’s NFL Draft, instead selecting Burrow’s former LSU teammate, Ja’Marr Chase (11 REC, 220 YDS, 20.0 Y/R, 4 TD), Fifth Overall with the train of thought that adding another weapon in the passing game was an opportunity too good to pass up. After combining for 107 receptions, 2,093 yards, and twenty touchdowns during their stay together in Baton Rouge, the explosive playmaker opted out of the 2020 campaign in preparation of the Draft, and he too was subject of swirling rumors during the Summer in regards to struggling in seeing and catching the football, which apparently are pillars of his position. Well, the Bengals’ faithful will be happy to hear that those concerns over both players have proven much ado about nothing, for both Quarterback and Wideout have played major roles in their side’s surprising 2-1 start. Unconcerned with the rush, Burrow has routinely stepped up in the pocket to make throws downfield, raising his net yards per attempt from 5.64 as a rookie to an impressive 6.68, while tossing seven touchdowns through three games. Keep in mind that he threw thirteen in ten outings last year. It’s been evident that the chemistry that he and Chase enjoyed in their collegiate days has carried over to the professional level, with the combination accounting for eleven catches for 220 yards and four touchdowns on sixteen targets. The Rookie has been downright lethal thus far, registering at least one score in each of his first three games, becoming the first Receiver in NFL history to begin his career in such fashion. Coupled with fellow pass-catchers, Tyler Boyd (14 REC, 141 YDS, 10.1 Y/R, 1 TD) and Tee Higgins (10 REC, 118 YDS, 11.8 Y/R, 2 TD), the Bengals have one of the most talented young Receiving Corps in the league. And that truth is something that their bitter rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, learned firsthand last weekend in an eye-opening 24-10 beatdown at Heinz Field, the visiting side’s first in Western Pennsylvania since 2015. With the game tied 7-7 late in the First Half, Burrow calmly drove downfield and launched a 34-yard rocket to Chase to take the lead shortly before intermission, before finding him again midway through the third frame to stretch the lead to 24-7. In the end, he completed an efficient 14-of-18 passes for just 172 yards, but made the most of his opportunities with three passing touchdowns, while his protection stood up against one of the most aggressive defensive fronts in the NFL, yielding ZERO sacks. Seven different players caught a pass, led by Chase with four for sixty-five yards and those two scores, while the aforementioned Boyd got the visitors on the board with an impressive touchdown in which he fought through multiple tackles. With that said, it’s impossible to discuss this affair without giving credit to Taylor’s Defense, which has quietly been a Top-10 unit thus far; Cincinnati ranks sixth (18.0) and eighth (317.0) in points and yards allowed respectively, and proceeded to get after Pittsburgh last Sunday, shutting down the run altogether (15 CAR, 45 YDS) and punishing (Quarterback) Ben Roethlisberger, who attempted FIFTY-EIGHT passes, hitting him seven times, sacking the veteran on four occasions, and intercepting him twice. Credit to management for bolstering this unit with big bodies on the Defensive Line and adding quality to a Secondary that was already one of their few strengths last season. Of course, this sets up tonight’s affair which will mark the first time that Burrow and his counterpart, the aforementioned Lawrence, have met on the gridiron since competing in the National Championship Game back on January 13th, 2020. Burrow led LSU to an absolute drubbing of the reigning champs, embarrassing them 42-25 as the Heisman capped off a historic season with a performance for the ages, completing 31-of-49 passes for 463 yards and five touchdowns, both of which stand as National Championship Game records. Chase also set a record with 221 receiving yards and two scores on nine receptions, while Lawrence (18-of-37, 234 YDS) and Clemson were left wondering what hit them. Will tonight’s rematch mark the the first chapter in the NFL’s next great Quarterback rivalry? Time will tell…