8:20 PM EST, NBC – Line: Chiefs -2.5, Over/Under: 56.5
It’s an AFC Championship rematch on tap at Arrowhead, as the surging Buffalo Bills look for some good old-fashioned payback against the (two-time AFC Champion) Kansas City Chiefs, who suddenly find themselves operating with an unfamiliar sense of urgency following their slow start. By virtually every metric 2021 is shaping up to be a MAJOR campaign for the Bills (3-1, 1st in AFC East), particularly in terms of expectations with many believing that this team has the requisite goods to advance to Super Bowl LVI. With that said, for the sake of the good people in Western New York, we’re not going to get into the love/hate relationship that their beloved franchise has with that particular event, but when you consider the exponential growth of this team under the current regime, all signs point towards them competing into early February. In fact, this is the 3-1 or better through the first four games for the fourth consecutive season, which is the first time that this franchise has managed to do so since the glory years of 1988 to 1996, which of course coincided with their four consecutive Super Bowl appearances, but as we’ll stop there (sorry, Bills Mafia). This season is Year Five of the Sean McDermott/Brandon Beane administration, and the fourth since drafting (All-Pro Quarterback) Josh Allen (63.1%, 1,055 YDS, 6.33 NY/A, 9 TD, 2 INT, 57.1 QBR), and with three postseason appearances in four years culminating in a watershed 13-3 run all the way to the AFC Title Game, you can understand as to why expectations are so high. First and foremost, Allen is the real deal and at 25-years old there is plenty of reason to believe that the best is yet to come for the gunslinger who set a franchise record with FORTY-FIVE total touchdowns last year, along with a slew of career-bests including completion percentage (69.2%), passing yards (4,544), and QBR (81.7) just to name a few. McDermott performed a major coup in retaining the services of (Offensive Coordinator) Brian Daboll, whose handling of Allen has allowed the signal-caller, and by extension the Offense, to flourish. After laying an egg in the Season Opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers (16-23), the Bills have been utterly dominant, shutting out two of their last three opponents en route to outscoring the opposition by a whopping NINETY-SEVEN points over that span, with Allen accounting for nine touchdowns in comparison to just two turnovers. Granted, the schedule hasn’t been anything close to daunting with a combined record of 5-11, but the point is that they are handling their business as you would expect a championship contender to do. When you have the kind of continuity that they’ve enjoyed over the past four seasons, you can continue to build on both sides of the football, particularly on Offense where their few weaknesses appear to have been addressed. The rushing attack, which was far from imposing in 2020 (107.7 Y/G), has netted a much healthier 145.3 yards (5th Overall) on 4.5 yards per carry (8th Overall), with Allen again factoring heavily into this facet of the Offense, averaging 32.3 yards on the ground on 5.4 yards per attempt. As for the passing game, McDermott and Beane hit a home run in acquiring (All-Pro Receiver) Stefon Diggs (26 REC, 305 YDS, 12.7 Y/R, 1 TD) via trade last year, with the speedster going on to lead the National Football League in both receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535), and has continued to add more weapons around him, in the form of (veteran Wideout) Emmanuel Sanders (16 REC, 268 YDDS, 16.8 Y/R, 2 TD), whose vast experience catching passes from top-tier passers such as Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees has made his transition a seamless one with Allen. And then there is the Defense, which after taking a step back last season is once again back to being a pain in the ass for their opponents. McDermott, one of the better tacticians on that particular side of the ball, must be very happy with how this unit has performed thus far; Buffalo ranks atop the league in a number of categories including points allowed (11.0) and total defense (216.8), along with passing defense (148.8), net yards per attempt (4.5), and takeaways (11), as well as red zone defense (33.3%) where they’ve permitted just three touchdowns in nine attempts. Granted, the Offenses that they’ve faced have been either one-dimensional, missing their starting Quarterback, or downright awful, but results are results. (Safeties) Micah Hyde (19 TKL, 2 TFL,1 QBH, 1.0 SK, 2 INT, 4 PD) and Jordan Poyer (12 TKL, 2 TFL, 1 QBH, 1.0 SK, 1 INT, 2 PD) are arguably the best tandem in the NFL, while (Linebackers) Tremaine Edmunds (21 TKL, 1 TFL, 1 INT, 2 PD) and Matt Milano (19 TKL, 6 TFL, 3 QBH, 1.0 SK, 2 FR, 2 PD) cover a wealth of ground, with (Rookie Defensive End) Gregory Rousseau (13 TKL, 3 TFL, 2 QBH, 2.0 SK) already showing signs of living up to his lofty potential. And it’s with all that said that they’ll be receiving their first true test in the form of the Chiefs, and their explosive Offense. These teams met twice last season, with Kansas City winning both matchups, the first a a rain-soaked 26-20 affair in Orchard Park before that aforementioned 38-24 encounter at Arrowhead in the AFC Championship; in the first meeting, the hosts refused to allow the reigning champs to beat them downfield, which opened them up to a more patient approach on the ground (245 rushing yards), while that rematch in the Playoffs was a tale of one team kicking field goals with the other punching it in for six. Can Allen and the Offense keep pace with Patrick Mahomes (more on him shortly) and the Chiefs’ aerial onslaught? Can the Defense limit all those big plays that they feed off of? Allen was far from his best in either encounter, completing just 56.0% of his attempts with four touchdowns and a pair of interceptions, while suffering four sacks for a loss of fifty-three yards in the latter of the two tilts. As for the Defense, well they yielded over 430 total yards in both games. If you’re looking for one thing to keep an eye on tonight, pay attention to how this team performs when they have they football within the red zone, for as prolific as the Bills have been moving the chains they have routinely bogged down inside the 20-yard line; with just twelve touchdowns in twenty-one opportunities (57.1%), they rank 23rd overall, and in last weekend’s 40-0 drubbing of the Houston Texans, they scored three touchdowns while settling for four field goals in seven tries. McDermott’s charges are desperate to close the gap between the two sides, and as presently constructed are in arguably a better position to do so than any other team in the AFC, but at some point they’re going to have to beat these guys in order to gain the requisite confidence to surpass them. Either way, given the youth of this group, it should be entertaining to watch it unfold…
Meanwhile, for the first time in well… quite a while, the Chiefs (2-2, 4th in AFC West) find themselves facing some early adversity within the division, as they currently sit last in the AFC West. Needless to say, this is unfamiliar territory for a team that has finished first in each of the last five seasons, and in most cases by a very comfortable margin. Granted, their current predicament appears to be more of a case of the rest of the division closing the gap more so than anything else, though through four games there are some very apparent concerns to be found. First and foremost, the Defense has regressed mightily in the early stages of the campaign, which is downright perplexing considering the growth that this unit had exhibited under the guiding hand of (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo over the past two seasons. During their run to securing the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy in 2019, the exponential improvement of the Defense over the final third of the schedule proved to be the decisive factor, and after finishing tenth in points allowed (22.6) and a middling sixteenth in total defense (358.3) a year ago the train of thought was that Kansas City would continue to grow in 2021, particularly when you consider the fact they would enjoy a full and proper offseason to further build upon their foundation. However, that simply hasn’t been the case thus far as Spagnuolo’s troops sit next-to-last in both points allowed (31.3) and total defense (437.8), including twenty-seventh against the pass (291.8) and thirty-first versus the run (146.0), along with an NFL-worst in terms of yards per carry (5.4). So what the hell has happened to this unit, you ask? Well, as those last few statistics will indicate, the run defense has been nothing short of abysmal; (Pro-Bowler) Chris Jones (7 TKL, 3 TFL, 4 QBH, 2.0 SK) was moved from Tackle to End during the offseason, which was always a curious decision to begin with, particularly when you consider it weakens the interior of the Defensive Line, which really couldn’t afford be without the presence of their most impactful performer. Then you have to take into account that he simply hasn’t been as effective at Defensive End, with opponents able to run away from his side of the field. Compounding matters, Jones hasn’t practiced all week with a sprained wrist, adding to the injury woes that the Chiefs have been dealing with; (fellow Defensive End) Frank Clark (2 TKL, 1 TFL) has featured in just one game thus far thanks to a tender hamstring, while (Linebacker) Willie Gay Jr. has yet to see the field languishing on (short-term) Injured Reserve with an ailing toe. Furthermore, these guys still continue to be a sieve in the red zone, where they’ve permitted fifteen touchdowns in nineteen opportunities (78.9%), ranking twenty-eighth in the league. Fortunately, Kansas City has the supreme luxury of having a juggernaut of an Offense that is fully capable of bailing them out when needed, though it remains to be seen if this group will continue to answer the proverbial bell. Ranking second in both points (33.5) and total yards (432.1), they’ll always have a chance as long (2018 MVP) Patrick Mahomes (72.3%, 1,207 YDS, 8.07 NY/A, 14 TD, 4 INT, 83.0 QBR) remains healthy and upright; the 26-year old has been prolific as ever, leading the NFL in touchdown passes (14) and QBR (83.0), while completing a career-high 72.3% of his passes. With that said, he’s already thrown four interceptions, including a career-worst THREE in a stunning 30-24 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers two weeks ago, leaving some to wonder if he feels comfortable behind a completely rebuilt Offensive Line; after getting embarrassed in Super Bowl LV, (Head Coach) Andy Reid and (General Manager) Brett Veach remade this position group with five new starters to keep their most prized asset clean, adding (Tackle) Orlando Brown via trade and (Guard) Joe Tuney in Free Agency, while welcoming back (Tackle) Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (a COVID opt-out), and drafting (Guard) Lucas Niang and (Center) Creed Humphrey. Needless to say, growing pains were expected, but what wasn’t was how opposing Defenses are beginning to play them. More and more frequently, their opponents are employing deeper shell coverages to prevent Kansas City from going over the top, in turn forcing them to be more judicious in settling for shorter, higher percentage throws. With all that said, the Philadelphia Eagles must not have received the memo prior to last weekend’s 42-30 shellacking at Lincoln Financial Field, as the visitors eviscerated their Defense for 471 total yards on a whopping THIRTY-ONE first downs, including a season-best 200 rushing yards, while proving nigh-unstoppable on third down (9-of-10). (Sophomore Tailback) Clyde Edwards-Helaire (58 CAR, 291 YDS, 5.0 Y/A, 0 TD) appears to be getting it going after an uneven rookie campaign, rushing for 100+ yards in back-to-back games for the first time in his young career, while Darrell Williams (21 CAR, 72 YDS, 3.4 Y/A, 1 TD) added another forty-two yards and a score on just ten attempts. And then there was dynamic duo of Mahomes and (All-Pro Receiver) Tyreek Hill (30 453 YDS, 15.1 Y/R, 4 TD), which was on ANOTHER LEVEL last Sunday; Mahomes completed a surgical 24-of-30 passes for 278 yards, five touchdowns and an interception, finding Hill on all but one of his twelve targets for 186 yards and THREE touchdowns, including a 44-yard knockout punch late in fourth quarter. In this case, the offensive fireworks were more than enough to overcome their own defensive woes, for after all they did relinquish 461 total yards, including 387 through the air, and failed to force a turnover against a very young opponent that is clearly in the early stages of significant rebuild. Whether or not they’ll be able to do so against an equally-prolific one with the requisite weapons to exploit their weaknesses is another matter altogether, making tonight’s matchup with Buffalo must-see television, as Reid faces off against one of his former pupils, the aforementioned McDermott. The former employed the latter for a dozen years (1999-2010) in Philadelphia in a variety of positions, and is 2-1 in three meetings as opponents. And speaking of Reid, last weekend’s victory was his 100th since arriving in Kansas City back in 2013, with the 63-year old becoming the first Head Coach in NFL history to win 100 or more games with two different franchises, an accomplishment that was no doubt made all the more fulfilling in doing so in Philadelphia, where he enjoyed a very successful 14-year reign (130-93-1).