8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Bills -5.5, Over/Under: 53.5
Week Six comes to it’s conclusion tonight in Nashville, as the surging Buffalo Bills storm into Nissan Stadium to face the Tennessee Titans in an encounter of division leaders. At this point of the season you would be hard-pressed to find a hotter team in the AFC than the Bills (4-1, 1st in AFC East), who after falling apart down the stretch in their Season Opener have since strung together four consecutive victories by a rather comfortable margin of 115 points. Indeed, Buffalo has been nothing short of dominant on both sides of the football over the past four weeks, averaging a whopping 39.0 points on 420.2 total yards, while relegating the opposition to a scant 10.2 points on 251.7 total yards and pitching a pair of shutouts in the process. There is reason to believe that this group is even better than last year’s which matched a franchise record with thirteen victories; (Head Coach) Sean McDermott has seen his charges improve exponentially with each passing season, and through the early stages of 2021 they appear to have addressed their few weaknesses, I.E. rushing the football and defending it as well. In 2020, the ground game ranked twentieth in both rushing yards (107.7) and yards per carry (4.2), while the Defense was very susceptible in that regard, checking in at seventeenth (119.6) and twenty-sixth (4.6) in those same categories. Fast forward to the present and you’ll find the attack incorporating much better balance with 140.4 rushing yards (5th Overall) on a healthy 4.5 yards per carry (9th Overall), while their teammates on the opposite side of the football have relinquished a scant 78.4 yards (3rd Overall) on 3.7 yards per attempt (4th Overall). Sure, three of their victories have come against opponents featuring backup Quarterbacks, but that was NOT the case in last weekend’s eye-opening 38-20 drubbing of the (two-time reigning AFC Champion) Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Of course, that was where the previous campaign ended for them last January, as McDermott’s troops simply couldn’t keep up with the prolific Chiefs, who ousted them in a lively 38-24 affair in the AFC Championship. However, though the stakes weren’t as high as they were in that postseason encounter, the sweet taste of revenge must have felt satisfying for the visiting side who effectively ran Kansas City off their home field, under the bright lights of primetime no less. After falling behind 10-7 early in the second quarter, the Bills put their foot on the gas and went on to score seventeen answered points before the hosts added a field goal as the first half ended. Coming out of intermission many felt that the home side would reassert their dominance, but again, that would not be the case as Buffalo’s Defense confounded them throughout the second half, with (Pro-Bowl Safety) Micah Hyde (22 TKL, 2 TFL, 1 QBH, 1.0 SK, 3 INT, 5 PD, 1 TD) picking off (Chiefs Quarterback) Patrick Mahomes for a 26-yard touchdown return midway through the third period to blow the contest wide-open. Simply put, this was a masterclass by McDermott and (Defensive Coordinator) Leslie Frazier’s Defense, who forced Kansas City into three turnovers on their five drives of the second half, including interceptions on back-to-back possessions, and forcing a fumble on their final drive of the night. In the end, they limited Mahomes & Co to 392 total yards and a combined 5-of-13 on third and fourth down, all the while racking up four takeaways which ultimately proved to be the decisive factor. (Rookie Defensive End) Gregory Rousseau (18 TKL, 4 TFL, 3 QBH, 3.0 SK, 1 INT, 1 PD) was a menace throughout the game, intercepting a tipped pass at the line of scrimmage while also registering a sack of Mahomes, while (veteran Cornerback) Tre’Davious White (20 TKL, 1 TFL, 1 FF, 1R) and (young linebacker) Andre Smith (3 TKL, 1 FR) came up with key fumble recoveries. With that said, as impressive as the Defense was last Sunday night, the Offense certainly had their way against the statistically-worst unit in the National Football League; the Bills rung up 436 total yards with (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Josh Allen (62.3%, 1,370 YDS, 7.13 NY/A, 12 TD, 2 INT) making plays from the pocket and on the move (including a jaw-dropping hurdle of a Chiefs Defender on a key 3rd & 4 midway through the final stanza), completing 15-of-26 passes for 315 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for another fifty-nine yards and a score on eleven carries. The 25-year old opened their ledger with a nine-yard scamper into the end zone late in the first quarter before rolling out of the pocket and finding (veteran Receiver) Emmanuel Sanders (19 REC, 322 YDS, 16.9 Y/R, 4 TD) thirty-five yards downfield for another touchdown, followed by a 53-yard rocket to (Tight End) Dawson Knox (18 REC, 261 YDS, 14.5 Y/R, 5 TD) on their final possession of the first half. Sanders would account for two touchdowns on the night, while Knox certainly made the most of his three catches, totaling 117 yards and that aforementioned score. Really the only criticism of this side to be found through the first five weeks has been their performance in the red zone, which quite frankly has left a lot to be desired; (Offensive Coordinator) Brian Daboll’s unit has punched it in for six on 14-of-24 attempts thus far (58.3%), which checks in at a disappointing twenty-fourth overall, though against the Chiefs they scored a touchdown on two out of their three possessions within that region of the gridiron. On the injury front, Buffalo should get (veteran Linebacker) Matt Milano (19 TKL, 6 TFL, 3 QBH, 1.0 SK, 2 FR, 2 PD) back after he missed the previous outing with a sore hamstring, while (Right Guard) Jon Feliciano practiced throughout the week and should be ready for action with a healthy elbow. Under McDermott, they are 2-2 on Monday Night Football, all but one contested last season, though they have won each of their last two contests in that regard, a 38-9 blowout at the New England Patriots and a 34-24 affair at the San Francisco 49ers, with Allen completing 77.6% of his passes for 695 yards and eight touchdowns with no turnovers. However, as was the case in their trip to Arrowhead, this venture to Nashville will serve as an opportunity to gain another measure of revenge against a team that bested them in primetime a year ago…
Meanwhile, the Titans (3-2, 1st in AFC South) face considerably raised expectations in 2021 for a variety of reasons, and you would be hard-pressed to find anyone to proclaim that they’ve come anywhere close to meeting them thus far. After advancing to the Playoffs in both 2019 and 2020 and claiming their first division title in over a decade along the way, Tennessee went out of their way to level up this season, adding more weapons on Offense and reconstructing their porous Defense. However, all this tinkering from (Head Coach) Mike Vrabel and (General Manager) Jon Robinson has yet to pay any dividends. The Offense said goodbye to (former Offensive Coordinator) Arthur Smith (who became Atlanta’s new Head Coach) during the offseason, and hello to (All-Pro Receiver) Julio Jones (12 REC, 204 YDS, 17.0 Y/R, 0 TD), who they acquired via trade with those same Falcons in exchange for second and fourth round picks in the next two NFL Drafts. Many believed that adding Jones, the current all-time leader in receiving yards per game (94.9), to a nucleus on Offense that already includes (Quarterback) Ryan Tannehill (63.6%, 1,251 YDS, 5.70 NY/A, 6 TD, 3 INT, 54.5 QBR), (emerging Wideout) A.J. Brown (10 REC, 130 YDS, 13.0 Y/R, 1 TD), and (back-to-back Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry (142 CAR, 640 YDS, 4.5 Y/A, 7 TD) would in turn make the Titans a dominant force on this side of the football and propel them into the realm of the AFC’s elite. However, that simply hasn’t been the case as this unit has been very one-dimensional and overly reliant on the exploits of Henry; Tennessee ranks tenth in both points (26.4) and total yards (419.2), but the passing game has yet to materialize under the watch of (new Offensive Coordinator) Todd Downing, producing 251.4 yards (26th Overall) on just 5.7 net yards per attempt (28th Overall), thanks in large part to a rash of injuries that has kept all of these pieces from developing any semblance of consistency. Both Jones and Brown have been banged up, with the former missing each of the last two outings with a tender hamstring, while the latter missed their overtime loss at the New York Jets two weeks ago with an ailing tendon of his own. Furthermore, (Tackles) Taylor Lewan (toe) and Roger Saffold (shoulder) have both been limited due to various injuries, joining a growing injury report that included a staggering SIXTEEN names heading into last week’s 37-19 rout of the Jacksonville Jaguars, with that number down to fourteen tonight. Fortunately, they possess the proverbial joker in the deck as Henry continues to trample opposing defenses with little to no regard for their wellbeing. The reigning Offensive Player of the Year has historically been a bit of a slow starter, but this season has been different in rushing for 130 or more yards in three of his five games thus far, averaging a career-high 128.0 yards on the ground, and now he comes into tonight’s matchup with a number of streaks on the line. After equaling his own personal streak of four consecutive 100-yard rushing games he has an opportunity to tie the franchise record of five set by Eddie George (1998), while also posting at least fifty rushing yards in thirty straight contests, which is the third longest streak in the league since 1960. Furthermore, if he can eclipse 110 yards and score a touchdown to boot he will join the likes of Jim Brown, Eric Dickerson, and Terrell Davis as the only players to ever amass 750 yards and eight rushing touchdowns through the first six games of a season. Oh, and we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention his legendary performance against the Bills in a 42-16 thumping of tonight’s opponent last year; though Henry was held to a season-low fifty-seven yards on nineteen carries, he effectively broke social media with a vicious stiff-arm of (former Bills Cornerback) Josh Norman, whom he sent flying across the field in what was arguably the most trending of plays that the NFL had to offer in 2020. With that said, Vrabel’s charges put together arguably their strongest performance of the campaign on that rainy Tuesday night in Nashville, forcing three turnovers, including a pair of interceptions of the aforementioned Allen. Tannehill was also sublime that night, completing an efficient 21-of-28 passes for 195 yards and three touchdowns, while also making plenty of plays with his legs, rushing for another forty-two yards and a score on four carries, highlighted by a ten-yard jaunt into the end zone right before Halftime. With both Jones expected to make his return tonight, Tennessee has an opportunity to reset themselves and develop some kind of chemistry in the passing game, which one would expect to revolve around heavy play-action via Henry’s presence. On the opposite side of the football, the Titans have shown some growth, though the numbers won’t suggest it; remember, this is a team that has already gone to overtime twice this season, and when you look at their output on third down (37.7%, 13th Overall) and in the red zone (60.0%, 14th Overall) you will see a unit that has improved from last year, though still has a ways to go. If you’re looking for room for optimism, look no further than the pass-rush, which has already totaled ten sacks (22nd Overall) thus far after compiling a paltry nineteen in all of 2020 (30th Overall). (Fourth-year Edge-Rusher) Harold Landry (28 TKL, 6 TFL, 10 QBH, 4.5 SK) looks like he’s finally figured it out this season, leading the Defense with 4.5 sacks and ten Quarterback hits thus far, though (Defensive Coordinator) Shane Bowen is demanding more from the likes of (Defensive Tackle) Jeffery Simmons (16 TKL, 3 TFL, 4 QBH, 1.5 SK, 2 PD) and (Defensive End) Denico Autry (8 TKL, 3 TFL, 5 QBH, 1.5 SK). Finally, arguably the biggest reason to feel optimistic about this team is the fact that they likely be given every opportunity to sort themselves out due to the simple fact that the AFC South is arguably the worst division in the NFL. At 3-2, Tennessee is two games ahead of the Colts, Texans, and Jaguars who together have managed to accumulate a combined record of 2-13 (.133) as of this post. though they’re only 4-4 on primetime under the direction of Vrabel, the Titans are a perfect 3-0 on Monday Night Football, besting Denver in a narrow 16-14 affair in their Season Opener last year.