3:30 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Pittsburgh -3, Over/Under: 46.5
It’s an ACC showdown in Western Pennsylvania, as the struggling Clemson Tigers look to build some sorely-needed momentum at surprising (No. 23) Pittsburgh, who in turn look to make their newfound standing in the rankings a prolonged one. While there has been no shortage of palpable storylines during the first half of this college football season, the struggles of Clemson (4-2, 3-1 in ACC) have largely flown under the radar, with the reigning six-time ACC champions on the outside looking in at the rankings after enjoying a lengthy run in the polls consisting of a remarkable 105 consecutive weeks. So what in the hell is going on down in Clemson, South Carolina, you ask? Well, to put it bluntly, the Tigers are experiencing a talent drain, plain and simple. Given the outrageous consistency of powerhouse programs such as Alabama and Ohio State (who have been every bit their peers on a national level), it appears that we have taken this program for granted in believing that they too were impervious to the downfalls of reloading, retooling, turnover, or whatever term you so choose. Indeed, this is a team that lost two of the greatest players in school history, as (Quarterback) Trevor Lawrence and (Tailback) Travis Etienne took their talents to the National Football League, with the former selected No. One Overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, joined later in Jacksonville by the latter, who ended his collegiate career as the ACC’s all-time leader in rushing yards. Furthermore, the dynamic duo led Clemson to a National Championship in 2018 and nearly another one in 2019, combining for a 33-2 record when on the field together. With that said, (Head Coach) Dabo Swinney was expected to have capable replacements ready to fill the void left by those two superstars. Indeed, (Sophomore Quarterback) D.J. Uiagalelei (55.7%, 974 YDS, 5.6 Y/A, 4 TD, 3 INT) performed well above expectations in place of Lawrence (due to COVID-19) in two outings last season, rallying the Tigers back to defeat Boston College before throwing for a whopping 435 yards in a loss at Notre Dame, the most ever launched in a single game against the Irish. Unfortunately, for all those who expected the transition from Lawrence to Uiagalelei to be a seamless one, it has been anything but; simply put, the Offense has been one of the worst in the country, averaging a pedestrian 20.5 points per game (113th in FBS) on just 325.5 total yards, with Uiagalelei completing a dismal 55.7% of his attempts for an average of 180.3 yards on a mundane 5.6 yards per attempt, with four touchdowns opposed to three interceptions. Sure, the Sophomore’s mechanics have been questioned, but this is a much larger issue for Swinney and (Offensive Coordinator) Tony Elliott, for the scheme has not been executed at the level that it has in years past, with a dearth of veterans for the young Quarterback to lean on. For instance, the Backfield was at one point flush with successors to Etienne, only for a number of highly-touted recruits to leave via the transfer portal; Chez Mellusi and Demarkcus Brown have departed to Wisconsin and Florida respectively, while Lyn-J Dixon (10 CAR, 48 YDS, 4.8 Y/A, 0 TD), who served as Etienne’s chief backup last year, has already made his intentions of transferring public, which only compounded their lack of depth following a season-ending knee injury to (five-star) Will Shipley (44 CAR, 211 YDS, 4.8 Y/A, 5 TD). The Receiving Corps has also been an issue after years of producing premium NFL talents such as Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Williams, and Tee Higgins; (Junior) Justyn Ross (28 REC, 282 YDS, 10.1 Y/R, 3 TD) missed all of last year with a spinal injury, which left Lawrence to focus on throwing the bulk of his passes to Etienne and Amari Rodgers (who is also plying his trade on Sundays), leaving the door open for a number of young recruits who have yet to develop into the playmakers that this unit so desperately needs. And then there is the Offensive Line, which was the Tigers biggest weakness in 2020 and continues to be an Achilles heel in 2021. Etienne alone had registered THIRTY-FOUR plays of 20+ yards last season, with the offense as a whole has been responsible for only thirty-one thus far. This season, Swinney’s charges are averaging a meager 5.0 yards per play, down from 6.7 a year ago, and have managed to score more than just nineteen points on only one occasion and that was against (FCS resident) South Carolina State. And thus they took the field as an unranked team for the first time since 2014 and very nearly met disaster once again in a narrow 17-14 escape at Syracuse last weekend; the visitors took a 14-7 lead into Halftime only for the Offense to bog down in the second half, where they could muster only a field goal as the Orange set themselves up for a game-tying field goal that thankfully fell short of it’s mark. It was more of the same for Uiagalelei & Co, who completed 21-of-34 passes for only 181 yards and a touchdown as the hosts dropped extra defenders into coverage throughout the affair. Fortunately, (as they have all year) the Defense bailed Clemson out, relegating Syracuse to 356 total yards and eighteen first downs, with (Quarterback) Garrett Shader struggling to connect on 17-of-37 passes for 191 yards, a touchdown and a crucial interception, which came courtesy of (Defensive Coordinator) Brent Venables’ son, Tyler (14 TKL, 1.0 TFL, 1.0 SK, 1 INT). With ten returning starters from last year’s unit, this Defense has been every bit as advertised in 2021, yielding a scant 12.5 points per game (2nd in FBS) on 318.3 total yards, including 201.7 against the pass and another 116.7 versus the run. The concern however, is that if the Offense continues to misfire, then the Defense will in turn succumb to fatigue and inevitably relinquish bigger plays. With six games left on the schedule, and only two against ranked opponents, the opportunity is there for the Tigers to course correct themselves, for they only trail (No. 16) Wake Forest by a single game in the ACC Atlantic standings, with a looming meeting with the Demon Deacons on November 20th. All is not lost for Clemson to put themselves in a position to win a seventh straight conference championship, but they’re running out of time to get their @#$% together…
Meanwhile, raise your hand if you had Pittsburgh (5-1, 2-0 in ACC) leading the ACC Coastal Division midway through the campaign? That’s right, folks, with Miami and North Carolina struggling mightily, it has been the Panthers who have risen to the top of the division as the only school of it’s number to remain perfect in league play. Now in his seventh season in Western Pennsylvania, (Head Coach) Pat Narduzzi finally has this program firing on all cylinders and set for their best finish under his watch (8-5 on three occasions). At this point it’s a legitimate question as to how high this team can soar in 2021, for they’ve been aided by a schedule that has been as inviting as any in the country; Pitt has yet to face a ranked team thus far, and none of their remaining six opponents currently reside in the polls, owning a combined 17-17 overall record (.500), including a mediocre 6-13 in conference play (.315). Hell, half of them (Miami, Duke, and Syracuse) have yet to even win a league game. While it would be easy to bash their “strength” of schedule, the Panthers can only play against the opponents that they’re scheduled to wage war with, a major reason for their success this season has been the fact that they’ve finally developed a consistent identity on the offensive side of the football. In 2020 (Offensive Coordinator) Mark Whipple doubled down on an up-tempo, pro-style passing attack that despite netting result early, really began to show it’s faults as the season progressed in large part to eschewing the run game altogether; Pittsburgh ranked 111th nationally in rushing offense (119.9 Y/G), which largely came against defenses who chose to drop bodies into coverage rather than stack the box. With six games in the books, it certainly appears that Whipple has solved this issue, for a little more balance has led to MANY more points for the Panthers, who have gone from averaging just 29.0 points per game (58th in FBS) in 2020 to a whopping 48.3 thus far in 2021, ranking third in the country. The ground game has improved considerably in churning out a more respectable 172.3 yards on 4.2 yards per carry, as (Sophomore Tailback) Israel Abanikanda (69 CAR 347 YDS, 5.0 Y/A, 4 TD), a highly-touted 2020 recruit, has claimed the backfield as his own with 347 yards and four touchdowns. And as we all know by now, running the football successfully only makes the passing game that much more effective, which has been bad news for their opponents, for Narduzzi and Whipple can be nothing other than pleased with how the attack has performed. After posting 259.7 yards through the air a year ago, Pittsburgh is torching the opposition to the tune of 358.0 yards, with (Senior Quarterback) Kenny Pickett (69.8%, 1934 YDS, 9.4 Y/A, 21 TD, 2 INT) playing at the highest level of his career. A rare fifth-year starter, Pickett has risen his stock considerably in 2021, logging career-highs in a slew of categories including completion percentage (69.8%), yards per game (322.3), yards per attempt (9.4), and touchdowns (21). To put his ascension into proper context, he’s thrown for an ACC-high twenty-one touchdowns already, shattering his previous personal-best of thirteen set in the previous two seasons. Furthermore, he can make plays with his legs too, though at this point of his collegiate career it’s more about keeping plays alive long enough to strike downfield than simply looking for the marker. Add it all up and you have a veteran Quarterback who in a year in which there isn’t an obvious prospect coming out of college should get plenty of attention from NFL scouts, particularly when you consider his size (6-3, 220 lbs), arm strength, mobility, improved decision-making, and experience within a pro-style system. Is he a dark horse for the Heisman? Perhaps, but that’s going to depend on his Pitt does a team, but if they happen to run the table, then hey, anything is possible. It’s clear that the rapport that he enjoyed with (ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year runner-up) Jordan Addison (34 REC, 586 YDS, 17.2 Y/R, 9 TD) has only strengthened in their second year together, with the tandem combining for thirty-four receptions, 586 yards, and NINE touchdowns. It will be fascinating to see how this tandem performs against Clemson’s staunch Defense, for it DID NOT go well when they met last season; simply put, the Panthers were NEVER in this 52-17 beatdown, falling behind 31-0 before the start of the second quarter. Despite managing to cut the deficit to twenty-one, the hosts would go onto end the affair with fourteen unanswered points en route to amassing 581 total yards, 412 of which came courtesy of the aforementioned Lawrence, with Uiagalelei accounting for thirty-two yards and a score in what was essentially mop-up duty. Needless to say, this was one that Pickett would like to have back, as he completed just 22-of-39 passes for 209 yards with two touchdowns and a career-worst FOUR interceptions, and was also sacked on six occasions. Narduzzi’s troops turned it over five times on that afternoon, and will no doubt be looking to return the favor as they welcome the Tigers into Heinz Field for today’s clash. Given the aforementioned struggles of Clemson’s Offense thus far, this matchup is an opportunity for Pitt to exploit their weaknesses, particularly in the form of that beleaguered Offensive Line; last season, the Panthers led the country in what has been dubbed as havoc rate, which accounts for the percentage of plays on Defense that end in a takeaway, loss, or pass breakup at 22.4%, and this season have already logged thirty-seven tackles for loss, twenty-one sacks, three forced fumbles, and nineteen pass breakups, with eight turnovers despite returning just one starter on the Defensive Line. (Safeties) Brandon Hill (31 TKL, 1 TFL, 1 INT, 3 PD) and Erick Hallett (24 TKL, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 3 PD, 1 FF, 1 FR) have settled nicely into starting roles, while (Junior Edge-Rusher) Habakkuk Baldonado (18 TKL, 7.0 TFL, 4.5 SK, 1 FF, 1 FR) has been an absolute NIGHTMARE in the trenches. Apart from last year’s thumping, Pittsburgh is 1-2 against Clemson under the direction of Narduzzi, with their lone victory coming back in 2016, a thrilling 43-42 shootout on the road in which the two sides combined for 1,094 total yards, 888 of which came through the air, and fifty-six first downs, with the hosts done in largely on the strength of three turnovers and nine penalties for a loss of 101 yards.