8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Saints -4.5, Over/Under: 42.5
Week Seven comes to it’s conclusion in the Pacific Northwest, where the fading Seattle Seahawks look for a lifeline as they host the well-rested New Orleans Saints under the bright lights of Monday Night Football. Indeed, 2021 is brave new ground for the Saints (3-2, 2nd in NFC South) who for the first time in fifteen years began a campaign without longtime Quarterback, Drew Brees, who called it a career shortly after last season. During his time in the Big Easy, the franchise reached heights it never had before, winning seven division titles (including each of the last four), making nine postseason appearances, and earning their first-ever Lombardi trophy back in 2009. However, anyone who followed New Orleans could see the future Hall of Famer’s time coming to an end, and no doubt noticed how (Head Coach) Sean Payton put a succession plan in place involving numerous backups over the past two seasons, all of whom saw a number of reps. And it’s with that said that the successor to Brees’ throne is none other than Jameis Winston (60.3%, 892 YDS, 6.68 NY/A, 12 TD, 3 INT, 61.2 QBR), who after spending all of last season learning the nuances of Payton’s playbook and studying his predecessor, earned the starting job after a lengthy competition that lasted well into the preseason. So how has the former No. One Overall Pick performed thus far, you ask? Well, as has long been the case with Winston, it’s been very much a mixed bag. In an eye-opening performance against the Green Bay Packers in Week One, he exploded for a career-high FIVE touchdowns despite completing only fourteen passes, only to turn right around and toss a pair of interceptions in a listless showing at the Carolina Panthers a week later. Consistency has been an issue for the 27-year old from the moment he entered the National Football League, for while he’s capable of some considerable highs (like leading the league in passing yards in 2019), he’s also authored some ridiculous lows (like tossing THIRTY interceptions in that same season). Quarterbacks are largely evaluated on their decision-making and ball-security, and this guy has been very questionable in both regards; in seventy-two games with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Winston accounted for 120 touchdowns opposed to a whopping 111 turnovers, which was by far and away the most of any Quarterback during that period. After being released by the Bucs (who promptly went on to win Super Bowl LV with his replacement), he found a home with the Saints, as Payton and his coaching staff prepared to travel the long road of fixing the talented yet erratic signal-caller, and through five games it’s evident that their hard work is paying off. Even without Brees in the saddle this Offense continues to operate efficiently, ranking ninth in the NFL in scoring (25.4), tenth on third down (43.1%), and first in the red zone (92.9%). Winston to his credit has largely cleaned up his act, throwing twelve touchdowns in comparison to just three interceptions, while posting the second-highest QBR of his career (61.2). Granted, Payton has endeavored to shift the offensive approach from being dominated by the short-to-intermediate passing game, to a much more grounded one simplifying things for his Quarterback, and allowing him to be more judicious when striking downfield. It also helps that this unit has (All-Pro Tailback) Alvin Kamara (94 CAR, 368 YDS, 3.9 Y/A, 1 TD), who has continued to make his presence felt out of the Backfield as both a runner and receiver, hauling in fifteen receptions for 113 yards and three touchdowns. Look for the passing game to expand once they get a healthy (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Michael Thomas back on the gridiron; the single-season record holder for most receptions (149 in 2019), Thomas has yet to take a single snap this season while rehabbing from an ankle injury that limited him to just seven games a year ago, with reports out of New Orleans indicating that he is nearing a return. Tre’Quan Smith, who hauled in a career-high thirty-four catches for 448 yards and four scores in place of Thomas a year ago, should give the passing game a shot in the arm as he makes his 2021 debut tonight. Fortunately, the Defense has been great through the early stages of the campaign, ranking fourth in both points allowed (18.2) and takeaways (10), while proving to be particularly staunch against the run where they’ve yielded just 79.0 yards per game (2nd Overall) on a league-low 3.3 yards per carry (1st Overall), as well on third down (35.2%) and in the red zone (35.7%), ranking seventh and first respectfully. Keep in mind that this unit has been banged up thus far, though a number of key contributors are set to return from brief stays on Injured Reserve, including (Linebacker) Kwon Alexander (2 TKL) and (Edge-Rusher) Marcus Davenport (3 TKL, 2 TFL, 1 QBH, 1.0 SK), both of which haven’t played since that aforementioned win over Green Bay in the opener. For the Saints, tonight’s trip to Seattle is an opportunity to build some momentum, which has thus far been difficult for a team that has alternated wins and losses to this point. Are they the group that bullied the Packers or are they the team that fell to the lowly New York Giants (27-21) three weeks ago? During Payton’s lengthy tenure with the franchise, New Orleans has been a frequent participant on Monday Night Football, appearing in twenty-five games dating back to 2006 in which they’ve amassed a stellar 17-8 record (.680), at one point winning nine consecutive contests. With that said, they’ve been far better at home (12-5) than they have on the road (5-3). Furthermore, they have faced Seattle on seven occasions over that span, earning a 4-3 mark against them despite all three losses coming in the Pacific Northwest, including twice in the Playoffs. The Saints are also 9-6 coming off a Bye since 2006.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks (2-4, 4th in NFC West) find themselves in full desperation mode looking up from the cellar of a division that is arguably the toughest in the NFL. In competing with the likes of the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, and San Francisco 49ers, it was always going to be difficult for Seattle to keep pace, even if they were coming off a stellar 12-4 campaign in which they claimed their fifth division title under (Head Coach) Pete Carroll. However, that race came down to the wire, and it also came with (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Russell Wilson (72.0%, 1,196 YDS, 8.00 NY/A, 10 TD, 1 INT, 61.9 QBR) at the controls, which is a luxury that they won’t be able to count on to help dig them out of this hole that they’re in. Prior to this season, Wilson was as durable as they come, never missing a single start in nine seasons with the franchise, despite oftentimes finding himself under duress thanks to one of the annually-worst Offensive Lines in the league and thus routinely subjecting himself to punishment when escaping the pocket. With that said, his good fortune ran out in a 26-17 defeat to the Los Angeles Rams two weeks ago, in which he dislocated the index finger on his right (throwing) hand following through on an attempted pass that came into contact with an opponent’s helmet. Now out of action for what is expected to be at least a month, the Seahawks are left to turn to (his backup) Geno Smith (67.3%, 340 YDS, 5.48 NY/A, 2 TD, 1 INT, 34.8 QBR), who made his first start since 2017. On his fourth team in five years, the oft-traveled 31-year old is in his second season with Seattle and suddenly finds himself entrusted with the responsibility of keeping them afloat in the treacherous waters of the NFC West. Make no mistake, this is a major concern for Carroll & Co, who have always been able to count on Wilson’s exploits to get them out of trouble. No disrespect to Smith, but he’s no Russ, with this abrupt transition at the game’s most important position completely changing the approach of the Offense. While nowhere near the threat rushing the football that Wilson is, Smith will be confined more so within the pocket than his predecessor ever has been, which means that the Seahawks are going to have to look elsewhere to supplement their ground game. Under Carroll the rushing attack has ranked in the top-10 in both rushing attempts and yards on six occasions, but will be hard-pressed to find a healthy option in a decimated Backfield; their leading rusher from each of the last three seasons, Chris Carson (54 CAR, 232 YDS, 4.3 Y/A, 3 TD), has been plagued by an ailing neck and has thus far been in and out of the lineup, while Alex Collins (48 CAR, 225 YDS, 4.7 Y/A, 2 TD), who sprang for 101 yards in last weekend’s narrow 23-20 loss at the Pittsburgh Steelers, left that affair banged up as well. Tonight’s contest could see the return of (2018 1st Round Pick) Rashaad Penny (2 CAR, 8 YDS, 4.0 Y/A, 0 TD), who hasn’t seen the field since the team’s 28-16 win over the Indianapolis Colts in the Season Opener. If they can’t establish the run (which is a real possibility given New Orleans’ strength in that department), it will be difficult for Smith to stretch the field and make use of one of the most lethal receiving tandems in the league, D.K. Metcalf (31 REC, 441 YDS, 14.2 Y/R, 5 TD) and Tyler Lockett (27 REC, 425 YDS, 15.7 Y/R, 3 TD). Metcalf, a hulking, freakish figure, is a menace for any Defense, with his 6-4, 235-lb frame allowing him to manhandle most Cornerbacks who dare challenge him at the point of the catch, while Lockett is a true burner in every sense of the term. Unfortunately, as concerning as this situation at Quarterback is, by far and away the most pressing matter in the Pacific Northwest has been the play of the Defense, which has once again gotten off to an absolutely abysmal start. Indeed, it feels like a lifetime ago that the Legion of Boom finished tops in total defense four years running en route to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances, for this unit has been nothing more than a sieve; Seattle has allowed 24.8 points per game (21st Overall) on an a league-worst 433.1 total yards (32nd Overall), including 292.3 against the pass (28th Overall) on 7.2 net yards per attempt (22nd Overall), along with another 140.8 versus the run (30th Overall) on 4.4 yards per carry (23rd Overall). To put that into proper context, Carroll’s Defense tied an NFL record in yielding at least 450 total yards in four consecutive games, and considering that this is now a 17-game season, are on pace to relinquish more yards than any team in NFL history. At this point, they’ve yet to hold any opponent below 100 rushing yards, and have received little in the way of a pass-rush with eleven sacks, including ZERO in last weekend’s trip to Pittsburgh. If you recall, this is a familiar story for Seattle, who got off to a similar start a year ago; through the first nine games of 2020, they permitted 29.6 points per game on 448.3 total yards, only to turn things around considerably over the final seven outings in which they allowed a far more respectable 15.0 points on 293.4 total yards. Justifiably so, Carroll has preached patience throughout the early stages of the campaign, but one has to wonder that if these issues continue to persist, which again is likely given the state of the Offense, will the 70-year old find himself on the hot seat? The Seahawks haven’t posted a losing season under Carroll since 2011, accumulating a stellar 100-49-1 (.666) record since 2012, which is second in the NFL only to the New England Patriots under Bill Belichick during that time. Perhaps an appearance on Monday Night Football will do the trick for them, for Seattle is a stellar 11-2 under Carroll’s watch, including a near-perfect 7-1 at Lumen Field, which also includes a 34-7 blowout of the Saints back in 2013. And what happened in 2013? They won the franchise’s only Lombardi trophy, so cheer up Seahawks’ fans, it’s not that bad…