12:00 PM EST, FOX – Line: Michigan -4, Over/Under: 51
The stakes are high as bitter state rivals renew their annual blood feud as the (No. 6) Michigan Wolverines look to extend their perfect start in East Lansing against the unbeaten (No. 8) Michigan State Spartans, in this rare chapter of one of college football’s understated rivalries. Coming into 2021, the national media was convinced that (Head Coach) Jim Harbaugh was on the hot seat at Michigan (7-0, 4-0 in BIG Ten) for the simple fact that he had yet to meet the lofty expectations of the program. Now if this was any other school (save a select few) in the country, the 57-year old would likely have a parade thrown in his name; in seven years at his alma mater, Harbaugh is a rock-solid 56-22 (.718), including three ten-win seasons. Indeed, most fans would be happy with the volume of success that he’s brought to Ann Arbor, and happy with the caliber of players that have seen the field over the course of his tenure. However, expectations are a mother@#$%^& and at Michigan expectations are always high, whether they’re reasonable or otherwise. And that is where Harbaugh has fallen short; in the previous six years he has yet to win the BIG Ten, let alone appear in the conference championship game, while also dropping four consecutive bowls and amassing a disappointing 11-16 (.407) record against ranked opponents. Oh, and he’s 0-6 against Ohio State, which in the minds of many fanatics in that particular part of the country is the only statistic that matters. Furthermore, he’s coming off his first losing campaign since arriving back in 2015, a miserable 2-4 run that resulted in a dramatic overhaul of his coaching staff, which in some cases is a checkpoint for coaches on their way out the door. With all that said, it appears that Harbaugh has in fact pushed the right buttons as Michigan is off to their best start since 2016 thanks to a grind-it-out Offense coupled with a retooled Defense that has returned to standard. Last season, it was the latter of the two that failed the Wolverines, who yielded 34.5 points per game (95th in FBS) on 381.8 total yards (89th in FBS), with a young Secondary routinely getting burned; this unit ranked last in the BIG Ten in explosive pass plays allowed, relinquishing a completion of thirty yards or more on 5.99% of their snaps (109th in FBS), while posting a lowly interception rate of 0.9% (121st in FBS) with just two picks on the year. Looking for solutions, Harbaugh parted ways with longtime collaborator, Don Brown, and outsourced to the National Football League where he found Mike McDonald, who ironically worked for his brother, John, with the Baltimore Ravens. This change has paid immediate dividends as a unit returning nine starters has permitted just 14.3 points per game (2nd in FBS) on 299.1 total yards, with the pass defense relegating opposing Quarterbacks to a meager 182.4 yards on 54.6% passing and 6.22 yards per attempt. (Senior Defensive End) Aiden Hutchinson (27 TKL, 6.5 TFL, 5.0 SK, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PD) has dominated with five sacks and a forced fumble, while (five-star Safety) Daxton Hill (35 TKL, 3.5 TFL, 0.5 SK, 2 INT, 4 PD) has played all over the Secondary en route to amassing 3.5 tackles for loss, a pair of interceptions, and four defended passes. After relinquishing a season-high 431 yards in a close call at Nebraska (32-29), this group turned right around and put the squeeze on Northwestern, permitting just 240 total yards and forcing a pair of turnovers in a one-sided 33-7 showing. With the defense back to it’s typical levels, the Offense is back to doing what they do best, pummeling the opposition on the ground. For a former Quarterback, it’s ironic that Harbaugh has long favored a physical run game whether it be the professional or collegiate ranks, but all of his teams have been grounded in that identity and this particular incarnation is no different; Michigan has churned out a whopping 253.3 yards per contest via the run on a healthy 5.5 yards per carry, attempting forty or more rushes on all but one occasion thus far. Even with (former Taiback) Zach Charbonnet transferring to UCLA, the backfield has been stocked with capable rushers led by the tandem of Hassan Haskins (124 CAR, 602 YDS, 4.9 Y/A, 10 TD) and Blake Corum (116 CAR, 729 YDS, 6.3 Y/A, 10 TD), who have brought a “thunder and lightning element” to the attack. As a Senior, Haskins has received the most touches of the two, grinding out 602 yards and ten touchdowns on 4.9 yards per carry, but it has been Corum who has turned heads in Ann Arbor; the Sophomore has been electrifying with a team-high 729 yards on a robust 6.3 yards per attempt, while matching his running mate’s scoring total. After opening the campaign with three consecutive 100-yard games, Corum made it four with 119 yards and two touchdowns in last weekend’s romp over the Wildcats. However, it’s his skill in the receiving game that has made him so valuable as he’s reeled in eighteen receptions for 125 yards and another score. And speaking of the passing game, we’re still waiting for (Junior Quarterback) Cade McNamara (63.0%, 1,115 YDS, 7.6 Y/A, 5 TD, 1 INT) to make the leap, for at the moment he’s still very much the game manager that Harbaugh has employed with the Wolverines. Ultimately, this is what has separated Michigan from the teams that they expect to beat, for they have yet to possess a signal-caller with game-changing ability. Again, it’s a wonder that a former Quarterback has had such a hard time finding the right fit at the game’s most important position, with McNamara appearing to be yet another in a long line of underwhelming passers. After splitting reps with Joe Milton last season, McNamara was named the starter after Milton transferred, though at some point is expected to receive heavy competition from (five-star recruit) J.J. McCarthy (63.2%, 212 YDS, 11.2 Y/A, 2 TD, 0 INT), who enrolled early to digest the playbook. In the meantime, his decision-making has been up-to par, which means he should keep the job… for now. In the meantime, today’s trip to East Lansing will provide the first true test for this team, which has yet to face a ranked opponent this season. As we covered earlier, the Wolverines haven’t faired well against ranked team, dropping five of their last eight encounters in that regard, with all but one of the losses coming away from the Big House. Furthermore, Harbaugh is a middling 3-3 against Michigan State, including last year’s 27-24 loss in Ann Arbor; despite rolling up 452 yards (including 300 through the air), the hosts were flagged ten times for a loss of eighty-six yards, with the Defense capitulating in spectacular fashion in getting gashed for 449 yards, including 323 and three touchdowns via the pass.
Meanwhile, arguably the biggest surprise in the BIG Ten has been Michigan State (7-0, 4-0 in BIG Ten), who have done a complete 180 following a disappointing 2-5 finish to last season. (Head Coach) Mel Tucker faced no shortage of obstacles in his first year with the school, which was left in rather poor shape from the previous regime; (Former Head Coach) Mark Dantonio’s delayed decision to retire after thirteen successful years in East Lansing put his successor in a real bind, as Tucker was left to pick up the pieces on the recruiting front far later than he would have preferred. And as if that wasn’t enough of a setback for the 49-year old, COVID-19 happened, effectively killing off any possibility to implement his vision and evaluate his personnel throughout the Spring, Summer, and early Fall. As you can imagine, the Spartans struggled mightily, ranking last in the conference in points scored (18.0), allowed (35.1), and total offense (330.3), all the while suffering from a Minus-9 turnover differential placing them at 121st in the nation. With that said, one of those two victories came against Michigan, in Ann Arbor no less, providing the program with a sense that they were indeed close to turning the proverbial corner. Fast forward a year and it’s safe to say that they’ve left said corner in the rearview, for Michigan State is off to their best start since 2015 in which they went unbeaten through eight games en route to winning the BIG Ten championship and earning a spot in the College Football Playoff. With seven consecutive victories to begin 2021 they have risen to eighth in the rankings, which is subsequently the highest they’ve managed to ascend since 2016. So what’s changed in East Lansing, you ask? Well, in comparison to last year the Offense has improved exponentially, averaging 34.3 points per game (29th in FBS) on 453.4 total yards, thanks in large part to a heavy dose of balance courtesy of a rushing attack that has churned out 202.1 yards on a healthy 5.4 yards per carry. The ground game was very much an afterthought last season in mustering a scant 91.4. yards, next-to-last in the league. However, Tucker hit the transfer portal hard in this regard, acquiring (Sophomore Tailback) Kenneth Walker (152 CAR, 997 YDS, 6.6 Y/A, 9 TD) from Wake Forest, who has since thrown his name in the hat for BIG Ten Offensive Player of the Year honors. In twenty games in Winston Salem, Walker rushed for 1,158 yards and seventeen touchdowns, and in his first season with the Spartans has gone on to lead the conference in carries (152) and rushing yards (997), with a quartet of 100-yard games to his credit thus far. Of course, success on the ground oftentimes leads to even more success through the air, and given the talent that this team was returning in the passing game there was a real potential to catch fire. After performing moderately in four games last season, (Sophomore Quarterback) Payton Thorne (61.2%, 1,701 YDS, 9.3 Y/A, 15 TD, 4 INT) was not guaranteed the starting gig coming into 2021, particularly after Tucker added (Senior Quarterback) Anthony Russo (71.4%, 43 YDS, 6.1 Y/A, 0 TD, 0 INT), a graduate transfer from Temple. The word out of East Lansing was that the coaching staff was looking for a different kind of signal-caller, though inevitably decided to stick with Thorne, who has not disappointed by any means in completing 61.2% of his throws for 1,701 yards on a healthy 9.3 yards per attempt with fifteen touchdowns in comparison to four interceptions. Thorne turned heads in Michigan State’s 38-17 drubbing at Miami (Fla), completing 18-of-31 passes for 261 yards and a career-high four touchdowns, though is coming off what has been easily his most disappointing performance in a narrow 20-15 win at Indiana, totaling 126 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions on 14-of-26 passing. This one was won by the Defense, which came up huge despite still being very much a work in progress. While Thorne & Co were stuck in neutral for the bulk of the affair thanks in large part to a whopping 134 yards lost to penalties, (Defensive Coordinator) Scottie Hazleton pushed all the right buttons, with his troops sacking (Hoosiers Quarterback) Jack Tuttle three times and picking him off on two occasions (returning one for a score), while also getting their hands on an Indiana fumble. Furthermore, they thwarted a late two-point conversion that would have tied the score early in the fourth quarter. Then again, that’s been the story on this side of the football thus far, for the Spartans have bent and bent, but have yet to break; despite relinquishing 406.1 total yards, including 286.0 against the pass, Tucker’s charges have yielded just 18.7 points per game (20th in FBS) in large part to racking up a dozen takeaways with all but one coming over the last five games. We mentioned earlier that their miserable turnover margin was a major reason for their struggles last season, and at this point they’re a much healthier Plus-5, as ten different players have gotten their hands on the football. Michigan State comes into this showdown with their hated rivals well-rested coming off their bye week, and we have a hard time believing that Tucker emphasized anything other than execution and avoiding mental mistakes. Those twelve penalties for 134 yards were by far and away the most attributed to his team this season, with their previous highs being nine (on two occasions) and eighty yards. The Spartans are 6-4 in their last ten meetings with the Wolverines, though last year’s 27-24 triumph at the Big House was their first in three tries. Today’s matchup also marks the first time since 2015 in which these two schools have met with both combatants ranked twelfth or higher. Why is that particular meeting notable you ask? Well that was the famous blocked punt game, in which (No. 7) Michigan State rallied back from a late 14-23 deficit, blocking an ill-fated punt and returning it thirty-eight yards for the game-winning touchdown, capping a rain-soaked 27-23 triumph over (No. 12) Michigan in Ann Arbor. Will today’s affair prove to be as entertaining? There’s a good chance…