8:15 PM EST, NBC – Line: Vikings -2.5, Over/Under: 52
A pair of teams looking to get back to business following their bye week square off in the Twin Cities, as the surging Dallas Cowboys look to extend their winning streak to six games on the road at the Minnesota Vikings, who continue to make up ground within their own division. As dismal as 2020 was for the Cowboys (5-1, 1st in NFC East), their start to 2021 really couldn’t be any more ideal as they’ve already established a comfortable lead within a division that looks primed for the taking once again; each of the other three teams in the NFC East are below .500 a year after the division became just the third to feature all of it’s residents with a losing record since realignment took place back in 2002. Indeed, Big D is off to it’s best start since 2016, when they coincidentally matched a franchise record with thirteen victories, so with that in mind there is plenty of optimism for (Head Coach) Mike McCarthy’s side, with the skipper enjoying his second season with the club far more than his first. Simply put, NOTHING went right for the 57-year old last year, with a plethora of injuries to key players coupled with some questionable coaching hires to his staff that never quite fit with the personnel (to say nothing of the effects of the pandemic itself), paving the way for a disappointing 6-10 finish, which matched a personal worst for the Super Bowl XLV winner. The biggest loss from a year ago, (Pro Bowl Quarterback) Dak Prescott (73.1%, 1,813 YDS, 7.87 NY/A, 16 TD, 4 INT, 55.3 QBR) has unsurprisingly been their greatest proponent to success, with the 28-year old bouncing back in a MAJOR way after missing most of 2020 with a gruesome broken leg. Of course, Prescott had dominated the headlines coming into the previous campaign thanks to prolonged negotiations over a lucrative contract extension, which would eventually get done over the Summer despite missing all but five games. While his health certainly commanded the headlines during the Preseason, his play has done all the talking thus far; Prescott has posted career-highs in a slew of categories, including completion percentage (73.1%), net yards per attempt (7.87), touchdown percentage (7.4%), and passer rating (115.0) to name but a few, all the while tossing at least three touchdowns in every game but one. With Dak back in the proverbial saddle, the Offense has been nothing short of prolific, with (Offensive Coordinator) Kellen Moore’s troops leading the National Football League in both points (34.2) and total yards (470.1), while sitting at second overall in first downs (164) and rushing yards (164.3), fourth overall in yards per carry (5.1) and third down percentage (46.7%), and fifth in passing yards (305.8). In addition to Prescott’s resurgence, a healthy Offensive Line has begun to return to the form that made them the NFL’s top position group, which in turn has rejuvenated (All-Pro Tailback) Ezekiel Elliott (102 CAR, 521 YDS, 5.1 Y/A, 5 TD), who after a averaging a career-low in yards per carry last year (4.0) has matched a career-high in churning out a healthy 5.1 yards per attempt. Furthermore, the Receiving Corps is full of capable weapons, with (Pro Bowl Wideout) Amari Cooper (30 REC, 373 YDS, 13.4 Y/R, 4 TD) and (Sophomore sensation) CeeDee Lamb (33 REC, 497 YDS, 15.1 Y/R, 4 TD) emerging as one of the league’s top tandems, while Cedrick Wilson (14 REC, 168 YDS, 120 Y/R, 2 TD) and (Tight End) Dalton Schultz (31 REC, 359 YDS, 11.6 Y/R, 3 TD) have made sure that their Quarterback always has an outlet to throw to. With all due respect to Prescott’s return, the greatest improvement in Dallas has come on the defensive side of the football, where they were absolutely ABYSMAL a year ago. McCarthy hiring (longtime collaborator) Mike Nolan to run the Defense was always a headscratcher given the personnel on hand, and the numbers supported that notion as they allowed the most rushing yards in franchise history (158.8). And it’s with that said that Nolan was swiftly replaced in favor of (former Falcons Head Coach) Dan Quinn, who has proven to be a far better fit for the players at his disposal; the Cowboys had ran a combination of the Tampa-Two/Seattle Cover-Three schemes for years prior to 2020, and given Quinn’s expertise with the latter having spent two years as the Seahawks’ Defensive Coordinator (2013-2014), his transition has seen a return to form from Big D. The 51-year old’s charges have relinquished 24.3 points per game (20th Overall) on 381.2 total yards (23rd Overall) including a vastly-improved 86.2 yards against the run (5th Overall) on 4.3 yards per carry (17th Overall), making them far more formidable on third down were they’ve yielded a solid 35.7% success rate (9th Overall). Furthermore, they’ve suddenly become one of the most opportunistic units in the league, forcing FOURTEEN turnovers thus far, second-most in the NFL. This is where (Sophomore Cornerback) Trevon Diggs (23 TKL, 7 INT, 11 PD, 2 TD) has stolen the show, totaling a league-best SEVEN interceptions, which is a record through the first six games of a season, while returning two of them for touchdowns, including his most recent in Dallas’ thrilling 35-29 victory over the New England Patriots when we last saw them two weeks ago. Now they’ll be looking to maintain their momentum following their bye week, with the Cowboys 6-4 following a bye over the last ten seasons, though it’s ironic that they met these same Vikings immediately following last season’s week off, a narrow 31-28 victory in Minneapolis no less. A wild fourth quarter that featured four touchdowns and as many lead changes, concluded with game-winning score courtesy of the aforementioned Schultz, while Elliott led the rushing charge with 103 of his side’s 180 yards. The Cowboys have won three of their last four meetings with the Vikings, including each of their last two in Minneapolis. Lastly, few teams have featured on primetime more frequently over the last decade, with (Owner) Jerry Jones’ boys a remarkable 26-26 (.500) when playing in front of a national audience and 14-9 (.608) in games in which Prescott has started. However, there is growing buzz that the Quarterback may in fact miss tonight’s contest due to a tender calf suffered proper to the bye week. Reports out of Dallas suggest that he is very much a game-time decision, though given his aforementioned injury history he will opt to sit out if he feels any pain whatsoever during the leadup to kickoff.
Meanwhile, if not for a missed field goal at the death and a lost fumble in overtime, the Vikings (3-3, T-2nd in NFC North) could very well be sitting in the same position as their opponent tonight, but in this game of inches they have unfortunately fallen short on more than one occasion. And that’s been the story for Minnesota thus far, who opened the 2021 campaign losing their first two games by a combined FOUR points, testing the patience of (Head Coach) Mike Zimmer in the process. In the season opener, a wild affair at the Cincinnati Bengals, they rallied back from down fourteen points to send the game into overtime, where (Pro Bowl Tailback) Dalvin Cook (80 CAR, 366 YDS, 4.6 Y/A, 2 TD) fumbled the ball (and a potential win) away on 1st & 10 from the host’s 38-yard line, with the Bengals recovering and going on to kick the game-winner seven plays later. A week afterward they went toe-to-toe with the NFL’s lone remaining unbeaten, the Arizona Cardinals, wasting a 20-7 lead along with an opportunity to win it late as (Kicker) Greg Joseph missed the would-be walk-off from thirty-eight yards out. As for their only other loss, a 14-7 defeat at home to (longtime former assistant) Kevin Stefanski’s Cleveland Browns, Zimmer’s charges failed to mount much of anything following a 14-play, 75-yard opening drive, going scoreless the rest of the way with six punts and twice turning it over on downs, along with an interception en route to amassing just 255 total yards. With that said, this is a team that managed to climb back to .500 in winning each of their last two outings, including a maddening 34-28 win in overtime at the Carolina Panthers two weeks ago, in which they attempted to do everything within their power to throw it all away. After extending their lead to 28-17 early in the fourth quarter, the Panthers would chip away at that advantage with a 23-yard field goal followed immediately by a ridiculous 96-yard drive to tie the score via touchdown and a two-point conversion. Of course, the visitors would have one last opportunity to keep the affair from going into extras, and failed as the aforementioned Joseph missed his second field goal of the afternoon, this time from forty-seven yards out as time expired. Thankfully (veteran Quarterback) Kirk Cousins (69.5%, 1,769 YDS, 6.88 NY/A, 13 TD, 2 INT, 56.8 QBR) would save the day, seeing to it that Carolina wouldn’t possess the football in overtime, engineering a nine-play, 75-yard drive concluding with a 27-yard touchdown strike to (young Receiver) K.J. Osborn (26 REC, 311 YDS, 12.0 Y/R, 2 TD) to win the game. Cousins was fantastic in completing 33-of-48 passes for a season-high 373 yards and three touchdowns, while (Pro Bowl Wideout) Adam Thielen (37 REC, 393 YDS, 10.6 Y/R, 5 TD) hauled in eleven receptions on thirteen targets for 126 yards and a score. Minnesota possessed the football for a commanding 37:38 largely on the strength of 198 rushing yards, while forcing three turnovers in the victory and relegating the home side to a miserable 2-of-12 on third down. So with all that said, just who are these Vikings, you ask? Are they the team that has developed a penchant for self-destruction, or are they the team that came up clutch in the latter stages of each of their last two wins, including a 19-17 conquest of the winless Detroit Lions, in which Cousins drove them forty-six yards downfield in thirty-seven seconds to kick the game-winner from fifty-four yards out? The answer is all of the above, as Zimmer undoubtedly spent the majority of the last two weeks preaching attention to detail, which has been something that the 65-year old has long been known for. Now in his eighth season with the franchise, there have been rumors that he could indeed step away if his charges miss the playoffs once again after finishing 7-9 in 2020, matching their worst record under Zimmer’s watch since his initial outing back in 2014. With all due respect, what Minnesota is trying to accomplish, rebuilding on the fly while attempting to remain competitive, is a proverbial tight-rope act that many teams fail at miserably. After ranking twenty-seventh and twenty-ninth in total defense (393.2) and points allowed (29.7) in 2020, the Defense has shown improvement in a number of areas, though still needs plenty of work in others; the Vikings rank sixteenth (358.3) and fourteenth (22.8) in those respective categories thus far in 2021, though have continued to struggle against the run, yielding 128.0 yards per game (23rd Overall) on 4.8 yards per carry (29th Overall), while capitulating far too often in the red zone, where opponents have punched it in on 71.4% of their attempts (24th Overall). With that said, there hasn’t been a better Defense on third down, permitting a scant 29.2% conversion rate, while also accounting for a robust twenty-one sacks, tied for most in the NFL. And then there is the Offense, which has had little issues moving the football up and down the gridiron, ranking fifth in total yards (424.5), third in turnovers (3) and tenth in the red zone (66.7%). Even with the aforementioned Cook limited to four games due to a nagging ankle sprain, this unit has remained well above league average, particularly with Cousins performing at the highest level of his career; the 33-year old signed a two-year, $66 million contract extension with the franchise during the offseason and appears to be operating with an unshakeable piece of mind, tossing thirteen touchdowns to just a pair of interceptions, parlaying to the lowest pick rate of his career (0.8%). Then again, his protection has been superb in yielding a sack on a mere 3.6% of his dropbacks, by far and away the lowest such figure since he joined the team back in 2018. Always an efficient passer, Cousins’ bugaboo has been turnovers, or more specifically fumbles, losing control of the football on sixty-eight occasions since 2012, thirty of which recovered by the opposing Defense, half of which coming during his time with the Vikings. However, he’s yet to lose a fumble this season, which has kept the Offense on schedule. Now if only they could get some consistency from Special Teams, or in other words, the aforementioned Joseph. The 27-year old has missed four of his seventeen attempts thus far, the most of any Kicker in the league at this point, which is notable due to the fact that he’s been utilized more than any other player at his position. Tonight’s affair with Dallas will see Zimmer enjoy a reunion of sorts, for that is where the venerable skipper spent the first thirteen years of his NFL coaching career (1994-2006), serving as (Hall of Famer) Bill Parcells’ Defensive Coordinator from 2003 to 2006. Zimmer is 1-2 against his former employers, including that aforementioned 28-31 loss at U.S. Bank Stadium last season. As for primetime, the Vikings are 10-12 (.454) under the bright lights during his reign, winning just one of their last four outings.