12:00 PM EST, ABC – Line: North Carolina -2.5, Over/Under: 76.5
Tobacco Road sets the scene for this weekend of college football, as the high-powered (No. 10) Wake Forest Demon Deacons look to remain perfect against the team that many thought would challenge for ACC supremacy this season, the North Carolina Tar Heels, in what is sure to be a lively affair from Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill. With the Atlantic Coast Conference turned absolutely upside-down in 2021, Wake Forest (8-0, 5-0 in ACC) has surprisingly risen to the top, off to their best start in the history of the program. Then again, given their dubious history that may not sound like much; this school sports the all-time worst winning percentage of any within the Power-Five at .401. However, that dreadful figure belies the improvement and massive growth that the Demon Deacons have experienced under (Head Coach) Dave Clawson, who has turned this outfit into a quietly-successful one. Prior to arriving from Bowling Green back in 2014, Wake had just thirty-three winning seasons over the course of their first 106 years of existence, only for the 54-year old to turn in five during his eight years in Winston-Salem, including all of which coming in the last six seasons leading to five consecutive bowls, which is easily a school record. The recipe for success has been taking lower-tier recruits and developing them over the long-haul, which has really served Clawson well at this point, with the luxury of the NCAA’s ruling of an extra year of eligibility due to COVID-19 benefitting them more so than any other program in the country. This is a team that has long struggled with depth issues, amassing a sterling 25-13 record before November 3rd opposed to a 6-12 mark afterward over the course of Clawson’s tenure, though that boost figures to grant them some additional insulation that they’ve rarely enjoyed; nineteen starters return from last year’s group, including the entire Offense, along with nine “super” seniors (beneficiaries of that ruling), making this by far and away the most experienced team in the conference. And that experience has in turn led to a prolific Offense that is shattering school records; Wake Forest has averaged a robust 43.4 points per game (5th in FBS) on 495.5 total yards, including 311.5 yards through the air and another 184.0 yards on the ground. At the heart of the attack is (Sophomore Quarterback) Sam Hartman (65.2%, 2,475 YDS, 9.9 Y/A, 22 TD, 3 INT), who has grown by leaps and bounds in his fourth season in Winston-Salem. A rare fourth-year Sophomore, Hartman can pick apart opposing Defenses from the pocket, completing a career-high 65.2% of his attempts for an average of 309.3 yards on a healthy 9.9 yards per attempt, with twenty-two touchdowns opposed to just three interceptions. Furthermore, he’s added another dimension to his skill-set, rushing for 208 yards and six scores on fifty carries. He’s logged multiple touchdowns in every game thus far, including a ridiculous SIX in Wake Forest’s insane 70-56 shootout against Army two weeks ago. There are no shortage of weapons at his disposal, with a Backfield featuring three different rushers gaining over 300 yards led by (Junior) Christian Beal-Smith (97 CAR, 492 YDS, 5.1 Y/A, 7 TD), and a Receiving Corps headed by the tandem of (Junior) Jaquarii Roberson (43 REC, 737 YDS, 17.1 Y/R, 6 TD) and (Sophomore) A.T. Perry (36 REC, 716 YDS, 19.9 Y/R, 8 TD). Roberson, fresh off the tenth-best receiving season in school history (926 YDS in 2020), is well on his way to eclipsing that mark, while the 6′-5″ Perry has emerged as a dangerous deep threat and from within the red zone with his talents on full display in last weekend’s 45-7 drubbing of Duke; Perry reeled in seven receptions for 116 yards against the Blue Devils, his fourth 100-yard game of the season and third in a row. With this kind of firepower, they’ve proven to be a handful for every opponent they’ve faced, with North Carolina well acquainted with the threat that they pose on every play; when these teams met a year ago, it was 59-53 track meet at Kenan Stadium in which the two sides combined for a staggering FIFTEEN touchdowns, 1,348 total yards (including 979 via the pass), SIXTY first downs, and EIGHT lead changes. Wake Forest had built a 45-24 lead midway through the third quarter, only for the hosts to run off THIRTY-FIVE unanswered points over the final twenty-two minutes of play. The aforementioned Hartman accounted for five touchdowns along with 429 yards on 29-of-45 passing, while Beal-Smith totaled 120 rushing yards on seventeen carries, with Roberson reeling in twelve receptions for 167 yards and a pair of scores. As prolific as this team has been, the Achilles heel over the past few years has been the Defense, which can’t claim the kind of talent possessed by their teammates on the opposite side of the football. From a schematic point of view, the Deacons are about as vanilla a unit in the country, choosing to keep things simple and in front of them, rarely taking risks as they look to bend without breaking. However, last season saw this group begin to make a name with takeaways, totaling seventeen which parlayed to an ACC-best Plus-10 turnover differential, which helped compensate for yielding thirty-five or more points in five consecutive games. A year later it appears that they’ve doubled down on this stratagem, forcing seventeen turnovers through eight contests, again translating to a very healthy Plus-10 margin. Prior to last weekend’s win over Duke, (Defensive Coordinator) Lyle Hemphill’s troops were gashed for over 500 total yards in four straight outings, including a season-high 595 in that wild affair at West Point. Today’s trip to Chapel Hill marks a crucial stretch for this team, which up to this point has certainly benefitted from a less-than-arduous schedule; though none of their remaining opponents are currently ranked, North Carolina State resided in the polls for weeks, while a trip to Clemson is never an inviting proposition. Wake Forest is 1-2 against North Carolina under Clawson, with both losses coming at Kenan Stadium in which they’ve relinquished a combined 109 points.
Meanwhile, 2021 was supposed to be the season in which North Carolina (4-4, 3-3 in ACC) was supposed to take the next step and challenge for a conference championship, but that simply hasn’t been the case as they’ve struggled to find any semblance of consistency thus far in a campaign that can be viewed as nothing other than a significant step backwards. So with that said, why were the expectations so high, you ask? Well, (Head Coach) Mack Brown’s second stint in Chapel Hill started swiftly, taking a floundering program that went a miserable 5-18 (.217) from 2017 to 2018 to a much-improved 15-10 record (.600) over his first two seasons culminating in back-to-back bowl games, including an 8-4 finish and a trip to the Orange Bowl, their first appearance in a major bowl since 1950 (Cotton Bowl). Furthermore, there was a good deal of uncertainty falling over the Atlantic Coast Conference, which had been dominated for a half-decade by Clemson, who was experiencing a good deal of turnover at a number of key positions. Well, the Tigers (5-3, 4-2 in ACC) have been disappointing, while just about every other traditional power within the conference has struggled as well, with Florida State, Miami (Fla), and Virginia Tech a combined 11-13 overall and 6-7 in league play. Unfortunately, the Tar Heels haven’t been able to take advantage of the misfortune of their contemporaries for they’ve suffered from the same maladies: the Offense has been sloppy and mistake-prone, while the Defense just hasn’t been up to par. Offensively, UNC set school records last season in a number of categories including total yards (537.2) and points per game (41.7), all the while thriving on big plays, with 30% of their plays traveling at least ten yards (1st in FBS), including a staggering 109 rushing plays that met that criteria, which also paced the country at 22.2%. Furthermore, sixty-six of their 152 drives in 2020 ended in a touchdown, parlaying to a healthy touchdown rate of 43.4%, best in the ACC and sixth-best in the nation. (Offensive Coordinator) Phil Longo has crafted a dynamic take on the classic Air Raid scheme, with (Junior Quarterback) Sam Howell (63.2%, 3,586 YDS, 10.3 Y/A, 30 TD, 7 INT) returning to Chapel Hill as one of the most decorated passers in the country; through two seasons, he amassed a whopping 7,227 yards and sixty-eight touchdowns, the most of any player in ACC history through the first two years of his career. A preseason Heisman candidate, it’s hard to imagine Howell getting an invite now given the struggles of his team, with his own erratic play certainly contributing to their woes; the Junior has regressed across the board, completing 63.2% of his attempts (down from 68.1% a year ago) for an average of 274.0 yards (down from 298.8 a year ago) on 9.1 yards per attempt (down from 10.3 last year), with nineteen touchdowns opposed to seven interceptions, matching his total of picks in four fewer games. Granted, he’s been utilized far more in the run game (114 CAR, 595 YDS, 6 TD), but part of that has been due to a porous Offensive Line coupled with an all-around talent drain at the skill positions. Consider this for a moment: North Carolina lost it’s top-two rushers, Javonte Williams and Michael Carter, with each totaling over 1,000 yards rushing and over 250 yards receiving, along with their top-two receivers, Dyami Brown and Daz Newsome, who together accounted for 1,804 yards and fifteen touchdowns. All four playmakers heard their names called in the 2021 NFL Draft, leaving Howell without a considerable amount of firepower, which explains the step back for both Quarterback and Offense as a whole. With that said, the attack has still been prolific, averaging 36.5 points (22nd in FBS) on a robust 482.9 total yards, but the disconnect between Howell and his supporting cast has led to eleven turnovers through the first eight games and a margin of Minus-1. This has been the most telling statistic in their four losses, in which they’ve committed seven turnovers, with Howell tossing three interceptions in the season opener at Virginia Tech (10-17), and the Offense losing a trifecta of fumbles against Georgia Tech (22-45). It also hasn’t helped that the Defense has failed to rise to the occasion despite Brown’s effort on the recruiting trail. This group wasn’t very good in 2020 in which they yielded 29.4 points per game (65th in FBS) on 400.9 total yards (58th in FBS), and it hasn’t shown any improvement in 2021 thus far in relinquishing 30.8 points (100th in FBS) on 397.2 total yards. The run defense has been particularly disappointing, permitting 230.3 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry in their four defeats, including a season-worst 295 yards and three touchdowns in last weekend’s 34-44 thumping at (No. 8) Notre Dame. This one was an entertaining affair in South Bend, as the Tar Heels and Fighting Irish traded blows throughout the night, with a combined nine touchdowns, 1,089 total yards, fifty-six first downs between the two sides. Brown’s charges accounted for 564 total yards, rushing for 223 yards on forty attempts, while Howell completed 24-of-31 passes for 341 yards and a touchdown, but also tossed a crucial interception that proved to be the decisive factor. With that said, a potential win over (No. 10) Wake Forest could prove to be the spark to turn things around in Chapel Hill, particularly when you consider how they’ve been able to move the football with ease against them in the past; Howell & Co racked up 742 total yards against the Deacons last season, with the Quarterback completing 32-of-45 passes for 550 yards, six touchdowns and an interception, though the aforementioned quartet of Williams, Carter, Brown, and Newsome accounted for 595 yards and six touchdowns, including 420 of Howell’s yardage and all but one of his passing scores. Looking ahead, North Carolina has an opportunity to appear in a third consecutive bowl, but they’ll have to earn it; apart from a gimme against Wofford, the Heels will travel to (Coastal Division leaders) Pitt next week, before ending the regular season on the road at Tobacco rival, North Carolina State, with those latter two opponents both ranked as recently as two weeks ago.