8:20 PM EST, FOX – Line: Ravens -7.5, Over/Under: 46.5
Week Ten kicks off with two teams residing at very opposite ends of the spectrum, as the Baltimore Ravens hit the road to face the struggling Miami Dolphins for a midweek showdown on South Beach. With about eight different teams jockeying for position atop the AFC, the Ravens (6-2, 1st in AFC North) currently find themselves above them all following last weekend’s thrilling 34-31 overtime victory over the Minnesota Vikings. After getting THUMPED by the Cincinnati Bengals (41-17) two weeks ago, it seems that (Head Coach) John Harbaugh made the most of the bye week as Baltimore rallied back from an early 17-3 deficit to push the affair into extra time, marking the third instance this season that they needed more than four quarters to get the job done. Minnesota started off like a juggernaut, as (Vikings Quarterback) Kirk Cousins found Justin Jefferson for a 50-yard strike kicking off a stretch in which they ran off seventeen unanswered points. However, that would be the point of time in which (2019 MVP) Lamar Jackson (65.0%, 2,209 YDS, 7.21 NY/A, 13 TD, 7 INT, 58.0 QBR) went to work; after throwing an interception late in the second quarter, Jackson would lead the hosts on four consecutive touchdown drives to end regulation, including a marathon-like, 18-play, 82-yard drive that encompassed 10:17 between the third and fourth periods, culminating in a five-yard score to (Sophomore Receiver) Devin Duvernay (15 REC, 138 YDS, 9.2 Y/R, 2 TD) in the back of the end zone to square things away at 24-24. When the contest eventually moved to overtime, the Ravens received possession first, though very nearly threw it all away as Jackson was intercepted in Minnesota territory on a tipped pass to (Fullback) Patrick Ricard (6 REC, 54 YDS, 9.1 Y/R, 1 TD). Fortunately, the visiting side could do nothing with the football, punting it right back after a quick 3 & Out, which would be a second chance that Baltimore would not waste; from his own 10-yard line Jackson would put together a climactic 10-play, 72-yard drive setting up (All-Pro Kicker) Justin Tucker’s walk-off 36-yard field goal. In the end, Harbaugh’s troops DOMINATED the affair in a number of categories, including total yards (500-318), passing yards (266-187), rushing yards (247-131), first downs (36-13), and time of possession (46:04), with Jackson turning in another heroic performance with 266 yards, three touchdowns, and a pair of interceptions on 27-of-41 passing, while rushing for a whopping 120 yards on twenty-one carries. Then again, this is nothing new for anyone who has been keeping an eye on the 24-year old, who has shown solid growth as a passer in his fourth season as the Starting Quarterback. With a decimated Backfield that forced (General Manager) Eric DeCosta to go bargain shopping on the veteran market, the focus of the Offense has shifted more to the passing game, which is a transition that has been hinted at in Baltimore since the Spring; DeCosta added (veteran Receiver) Sammy Watkins Jr (18 REC, 292 YDS, 16.2 Y/R, 0 TD) in Free Agency and selected (Minnesota product) Rashod Bateman (12 REC, 161 YDS, 13.4 Y/R, 0 TD) twenty-seventh overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, with the latter making his first start last Sunday after being dogged through much of the first half of his rookie campaign by an ailing hamstring. As opposing Defenses continue to look for ways to slow down the rushing attack, Jackson has been happy to let it fly, posting personal-bests in yards per attempt (8.3), yards per completion (12.8), and net yards per attempt (7.21), en route to posting by far and away the most passing yards of his career at 276.1 yards per game. To put things into perspective, his previous high-water mark was a meager average of 208.5 yards. Furthermore, he’s averaged a whopping 10.1 intended air yards per pass attempt (up from 8.6 in 2020) and 7.9 completed air yards per completion (up from 6.6 in 2020), serving as further proof of (Offensive Coordinator) Greg Roman finally opening up the passing game after years of trampling opponents on the ground. Needless to say, this is a MAJOR shift for the Ravens, who since Jackson was drafted in 2018 had never ranked higher than twenty-second in passing offense, including a league-worst 182.4 yards per game last year, with the Receiving Corps in particular drawing the ire of many around the league with a combined 137 receptions for 1,729 yards (12.6) and seventeen touchdowns. Granted, a lot of that has been by design, but that has all changed in 2021 as Baltimore has exploded for 281.0 yards, on 7.08 net yards per attempt, with both figures ranking EIGHTH in the league. (Third-year Receiver) Marquise (Hollywood) Brown (46 REC, 682 YDS, 14.8 Y/R, 6 TD) is just eighty-seven yards away from matching last season’s total (769), while (Pro-Bowl Tight End) Mark Andrews (42 REC, 560 YDS, 13.3 Y/R, 3 TD) continues to be his Quarterback’s security blanket, making good on the hefty investment that the franchise made in him shortly before the season began (4-year/$56 million extension). And with all that said, this considerable growth in the passing game hasn’t come at the expense of the rushing attack, which still ranks first in attempts (32.4) and yards (161.6), with Jackson continuing to serve as their biggest threat at 600 yards on a healthy 6.2 yards per carry, which if it holds will mark the third consecutive campaign in which he’s led the NFL in that latter statistic. And this brings us to tonight’s trip to the Sunshine State, which will serve as a homecoming for the Pompano Beach native; Jackson has faced the Dolphins once in his professional career, and it’s safe to say that he enjoyed himself quite a bit, DESTROYING Miami to the tune of 324 yards and a career-high FIVE touchdowns on an efficient 17-of-20 passing in a 59-10 blowout victory in the 2019 Season Opener. In fact, the Ravens are a near-perfect 7-1 (.875) against them (including playoffs) under Harbaugh’s watch, and have won three straight meetings in this series by the widest of margins, outscoring the Dolphins 137-16, including a 40-0 shutout win at M&T Bank Stadium on a Thursday night back in 2017. Harbaugh’s charges have also handled themselves rather well on Thursday nights, amassing a stellar 8-3 record (.727) in such contests dating back to 2010.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins (2-7, 4th in AFC East) are currently nowhere near joining that contingent of teams vying for power within the AFC, for they simply managed to snap a disastrous seven-game losing streak en route to securing what was only their second victory of the campaign. After posting a surprising 10-6 record in 2020, Miami appeared to be a team on the proper path of progression, exhibiting many of the telltale signs of a team ready to take the next step. Back in 2019, the franchise opted to start over from scratch, bringing in (Head Coach) Brian Flores along with (General Manager) Chris Grier to oversee their reconstruction, which saw the team trade away many of their biggest names in an attempt to collect a treasure trove of draft picks (including THREE firsts in 2020) which they utilized a year later to reinvigorate the roster. After finishing strong following a dreadful start, Flores & Co nearly reached the playoffs despite shuffling back and forth between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa (65.6%, 1,040 YDS, 6.03 NY/A, 7 TD, 5 INT, 55.2 QBR) at Quarterback, while an opportunistic Defense, propped up by a league-best 29 takeaways, kept them afloat. Coming into 2021, the Dolphins looked to confirm Tagovailoa, whom they drafted 5th overall a year ago, as the club’s latest franchise passer, while continuing to bolster his supporting cast with weapons including (veteran speedster) Will Fuller (4 REC, 26 YDS, 6.5 Y/R, 0 TD) and (Rookie Receiver) Jaylen Waddle (56 REC, 496 YDS, 8.9 Y/R, 3 TD), reuniting the latter with his college Quarterback. However, nothing has gone according to plan for Flores and Grier, who have seen the project take a significant step backward. So what in the name of Don Shula is going on in Miami, you ask? Well, the biggest issue has been the Offense, and Tagovailoa in particular, with the 23-year old struggling to find his footing in his sophomore campaign. The Hawaiian native has been dogged by injuries throughout his young career dating back to his collegiate days at Alabama, and after missing much of his rookie season rehabbing from hip surgery, missed four consecutive games this year with bruised ribs suffered during a dreadful Week Two loss at home to the Buffalo Bills (35-0). While it would be easy to suggest that that spell on the sidelines was a setback, it’s not as if he’s impressed that much when he’s been on the field either; Tagovailoa has completed 65.6% of his attempts for an average of 208.0 yards per game on 6.03 net yards per attempt with seven touchdowns in comparison to five interceptions, leading an uninspiring attack that ranks twenty-eighth and thirtieth overall in points (17.2) and total offense (315.9). Furthermore, he was expected to benefit greatly from not having to compete with the aforementioned Fitzpatrick, who was repeatedly turned to by the coaching staff to steady the ship, only for the franchise to spend months embroiled in speculation of trading for (grounded Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Deshaun Watson, who has yet to play this season due to a host of legal issues that have muddled his career outlook altogether. Needless to say, that had to be a mental hindrance for the young signal-caller, who went from being the team’s potential savior to discarded goods in the span of a year. By no means are we proclaiming him to be a finished product, but it’s difficult seeing him progress given the lack of support that he’s received, which really must be a disappointment to the team’s brass after making a concerted effort in strengthening that very aspect. Simply put, Miami’s running game has been lifeless thus far, mustering a scant 75.1 yards on the ground (32nd Overall) on just 3.5 yards per carry (30th Overall), which has in turn put far too much pressure on a fledgling passing attack that has been missing a number of it’s weapons, including the aforementioned Fuller and (Veteran Receiver) DeVante Parker (25 REC, 327 YDS, 13.1 Y/R, 1 TD), with each wideout currently occupying a place on Injured Reserve. Fuller in particular has been a MAJOR disappointment after missing the first two games due to a suspension over PEDs before a broken finger sent the 27-year old to IR after catching only four passes in two games. The other problem is that few teams have been more mistake-prone when in possession than the Dolphins, who have already committed a whopping EIGHTEEN turnovers (30th Overall), including a season-high FIVE in last weekend’s 17-9 victory over the Houston Texans. In a matchup between one-win sides, the opponents managed to combine for a laughable NINE turnovers in the affair, the most that the National Football League has seen in a single game since 2016. Somehow, Flores’ troops managed to come away with the win despite their litany of mistakes, as (veteran Backup) Jacoby Brissett (64.4%, 1,127 YDS, 4.64 NY/A, 5 TD, 4 INT, 54.9 QBR) once again stepped in for an injured Tagovailoa, who was a late scratch due to sore finger on his throwing hand that limited him throughout the week of practice. Brissett, who started four games in place of Tua earlier in the season, was far from great, but nonetheless managed to put the game out of reach of the visitors shortly before Halftime, finding (veteran Receiver) Mack Hollins (10 REC, 106 YDS, 10.6 Y/R, 2 TD) for a five-yard touchdown five plays after (Linebacker) Jerome Baker (50 TKL, 1 TFL, 6 QBH, 1.0 SK, 1 FF, 1 INT) intercepted (Texans Quarterback) Tyrod Taylor in his own territory. With that said, the home side would make it interesting after intermission with their first two possessions of the second half ending in turnovers. While this victory snapped the franchise’s longest losing streak since 2019, which coincidentally kicked off the current era of football in South Florida, the Dolphins were rather fortunate to even do that; the hosts committed their most turnovers in a single game since 2000, were sacked four times, and rushed for a scant forty-seven yards on twenty-five carries. After finally getting back on track, somehow all is not lost for Miami, who should benefit from a far more inviting schedule the rest of the way; five of their final eight games will be played at Hard Rock Stadium, and they’ll receive their sorely-needed bye week in early December. Furthermore, apart from tonight’s meeting with the Ravens, the remainder of the schedule features four consecutive games against opponents with losing records before wrapping things up with the Saints, Titans, and Patriots. If they can get healthier and Tua can clear his mind with the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, then there is a reality in which the Dolphins can challenge for a Wild Card, but they simply MUST clean up their act on the offensive side of the football, for they just don’t have the weapons to overcome this wave of turnovers. Tonight’s contest marks the first time that Miami will be hosting a Thursday night game since 2014, and over the last decade they have generally struggled in this regard (3-6), though they’ve won their only two affairs at home, a 22-20 overtime triumph over the Bengals in 2013 and a 22-9 victory over the Bills a year later.