8:15 PM ESST, ESPN – Line: Buccaneers -11, Over/Under: 49.5
Week Eleven comes to a close in South Florida, as the New York Giants emerge from their bye week refreshed for a primetime showdown against the reigning Super Bowl Champion, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who suddenly find themselves trying to snap their first losing streak in nearly a year. With COVID-19 (largely) in the rearview mirror, year two of the Joe Judge era with the Giants (3-6, T-3rd in NFC East) was supposed to be better than year one, but with nine games in the books it is difficult to find many discernable differences between the current campaign and it’s predecessor. Needless to say, that’s bad news for a franchise that is looking to avoid their fifth consecutive losing season, and eighth out of their last nine, with just one playoff appearance since hoisting the team’s fourth Lombardi trophy over a decade ago. In many respects it has been a case of the same old story for Big Blue, who have once again been torpedoed by a rash of injuries to key personnel and a turnover-prone Offense led by (young Quarterback) Daniel Jones (64.8%, 2,059 YDS, 6.17 NY/A, 8 TD, 5 INT, 44.7 QBR), who continues to be as uneven a starting passer that you’ll find in the National Football League. The 24-year old is only 11-24 (.314) in thirty-five starts with the franchise that made him a surprise selection in the 2019 NFL Draft (6th Overall), and has thus far become more synonymous with the frequent mistakes that he’s made than any big plays that he may claim credit for; since making his first start three years ago, Jones has been responsible for nearly as many turnovers (47) as touchdowns (48), the most of any player during that span, which breaks down to a dismal average of 1.34 turnovers per game. This season it’s been more of the same, with ten touchdowns opposed to eight turnovers to his name, oftentimes spoiling the incremental progress that he’s made in year three; his completion percentage (64.8%), yards per attempt (7.0), net yards per attempt (6.17), and sack percentage (6.1%) all register as the best of his career, while at 258 rushing yards he’s second among his peers. With that said, he was expected to improve across the board given the reinforcements that (General Manager) Dave Gettleman has supplied him with, for (former Pro-Bowl Receiver) Kenny Golladay (19 REC, 310 YDS, 16.3 Y/R, 0 TD) was a sizable catch in Free Agency, while (Rookie Wideout) Kadarius Toney (28 REC, 352 YDS, 12.6 Y/R, 0 TD) appears to be an inspired choice with their first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft (20th Overall). Of course, Jones NEEDS these guys to stay on the field, with none more important than (versatile Tailback) Saquon Barkley (68 TCH, 325 YDS, 4.8 Y/T, 3 TD), who has missed each of the last four games and sixteen overall dating back to last season. Simply put, the 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year is the proverbial straw that stirs the drink for the Giants, amassing an NFL-best 3,469 yards from scrimmage during his first two years in the league, only to miss all but two games in 2020 with a torn ACL along with three this season courtesy of a nagging ankle sprain. Barkley’s route-running, soft hands, and pass-protection are borderline elite for a Tailback of his experience, with his presence sorely-missed; after limping off the field early in a 44-20 thumping at the hands of the Cowboys, New York has mustered an average of just 19.0 points on 277.5 total yards, including 96.0 rushing yards on 3.8 yards per attempt. It’s imperative that Big Blue gets this guy healthy and contributing because there are MANY people within their organization whose jobs are riding on the progression of Jones, with the Quarterback’s prospects in turn tethered to the success of Barkley. However, despite all of that negativity, there may be reason to believe that this team is on the verge of turning the corner. Why do we feel that way, you ask? Well, though it hasn’t shown up in the win column just yet, Judge’s troops are absolutely competing, with half of their six losses coming by a combined SEVEN points. Furthermore, the Defense has begun to hit their stride despite spending more time than they’d like on the field and routinely finding themselves in poor position thanks to the struggles of their teammates on the opposite side of the football. The Giants have yielded a scant 9.6 points on 314.6 total yards over their last three outings, while proving staunch on third down (28.2%) and logging six takeaways over that span. When we last saw them prior to their bye, New York earned a convincing 23-16 victory over the Raiders, making it difficult for them on third down (4-of-12) and in the red zone, allowing one touchdown in six opportunities, while forcing a season-high three turnovers. All three takeaways came in the second half, with (Sophomore Safety) Xavier McKinney (46 TKL, 4 INT, 7 PD, 1 TD) returning an interception forty-one yards for a touchdown shortly after intermission before he added another pick midway through the fourth quarter. Lastly, (Edge-Rusher) Quincy Roche (11 TKL, 2 TFL, 3 QBH, 1.0 SK, 1 FF) sacked Derek Carr in the red zone with (Pro-Bowl Lineman) Leonard Williams (50 TKL, 4 TFL, 10 QBH, 5.5 SK, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PD) recovering the football and effectively ending the affair altogether. If this team can finally get healthy and Jones can get benefit from a full complement of weapons, there is a reality in which they make a run down the stretch; apart from tonight’s date with the Bucs and a return leg against the Cowboys, they face just one opponent with a winning record, including matchups with the Eagles (twice), Dolphins, Bears, and Washington Football Team, who together have a combined record of 13-25 (.342). Granted, all but three of their final eight games are away from the Meadowlands, but would a potential 9-8 or 8-9 record finally break their postseason duck? Perhaps, but any push must begin tonight against the Buccaneers, whom they played very tough in last year’s Monday night matchup at MetLife Stadium; after leading on two separate occasions, the hosts rallied late as Jones engineered a furious 13-play, 70-yard drive culminating in a touchdown to (former Receiver) Golden Tate, only to see the Quarterback’s potential game-tying two point conversion fall short on a controversial pass-interference that the officials ultimately relented from calling. Jones was 25-of-41 for 256 yards with two touchdowns and interceptions apiece, as the Defense gave Tom Brady (more on him shortly) plenty of problems throughout the contest. Despite their struggles over the last decade, New York are no strangers to the bright lights of primetime, particularly Monday Night Football where they’ve made eighteen appearances though earning a miserable 5-13 record (.277), including seven losses in their last eight contests with narrow 20-17 defeat at the Chiefs three weeks ago serving as their most recent outing.
Meanwhile, though their title defense has gone largely unimpeded, the Buccaneers (6-3, 1st in NFC South) suddenly find themselves in a place where they haven’t been in quite some time: losers of back-to-back contests. In fact, Tampa Bay hasn’t lost consecutive games since November 29th of last season, which may indeed be a blessing in disguise, because they would bounce back to their final four outings of the regular season before eventually going on to win the franchise’s second Super Bowl championship. With that said, after becoming the first defending champion to return all twenty-two starters from both sides of the football, have the Bucs hit a wall or is this just a minor pothole along their path? Well, at the moment even after two straight losses you would be remiss to find anyone who doesn’t think that they haven’t firmly entrenched themselves among the elite sides in the NFC, though at the same time these past few defeats are a subtle reminder that they aren’t without their flaws. First and foremost, it needs to be stated that this is a team that hasn’t been operating at full strength for weeks now, particularly on the offensive side of the things where last week alone they were without the likes of (Receivers) Chris Godwin (57 REC, 717 YDS, 12.6 Y/R, 4 TD) and Antonio Brown (29 REC, 418 YDS, 14.4 Y/R, 4 TD) along with (former All-Pro Tight End) Rob Gronkowski (16 REC, 184 YDS, 11.5 Y/R, 4 TD), leaving (three-time MVP Quarterback) Tom Brady (67.4%, 2,870 YDS, 7.16 NY/A, 27 TD, 7 INT, 65.3 QBR) without many of his favored targets. After putting up 33.2 points per game on 423.4 total yards over the course of their stellar 6-1 start, (Head Coach) Bruce Arians’ troops have mustered just 23.0 points on 347.0 total yards, with the running game dropping off considerably during this stretch. While the Buccaneers have largely eschewed the ground game this year, churning out just 99.1 rushing yards per game prior to this losing streak, they’ve dropped to a pedestrian 62.0 yards in their last two outings, and that’s with a bye week between them to address matters. In this case, Brady and the passing attack haven’t been able to carry them, particularly without so many weapons, with the 44-year-old accounting for all five of his team’s turnovers along the way, with four interceptions and a lost fumble. To put that into perspective, he committed just four turnovers in the previous seven games. The bottom line is that even though that this very much a predominantly pass-heavy Offense, ranking second overall in passing attempts (42.6 A/G), they NEED to at least establish the threat of the run, which certainly played a part in their turnaround en route to Super Bowl glory a year ago. Last weekend’s 29-19 loss at the Washington Football Team was arguably the most egregious example of this yet. After going 3 & out on their first possession, each of their ensuing drives ended with Brady being intercepted, landing the visiting side in an early 13-0 hole to begin the afternoon. Brady & Co wouldn’t breach the end zone until midway through the third quarter, and despite cutting the deficit to four late in the final stanza they fell victim to a marathon 19-play, 80-yard drive which saw the hosts convert on third down on five occasions, eventually killing the game off with a short touchdown run. In the end, Brady went 23-of-34 for 220 yards with two touchdowns and interceptions apiece, while the run game accounted for a mere fifty-three yards on thirteen carries. As a result, the time of possession in Sunday’s affair skewed heavily towards Washington, who held the football for a whopping 39:08. Sure, Brady is a master of his craft, but even he’s going to have trouble doing much with just under twenty-one minutes of possession. And then there is the matter of the logic in having a Quarterback of his age throw the football so frequently. Again, this guy is the best to ever do it, but is it really ideal to have him dropping back to throw over forty times a game? After throwing FORTY touchdowns in 2020, Brady is leading the league with twenty-seven scores, and while his pass-protection has largely held up (12 sacks), he’s been pressured at a much lesser rate of 11.9%, down from 17.8% a year ago. With that said, at some point the opponents get wise to this and start dropping extra defenders into coverage, practically daring them to run the football. It’s basically the same conundrum that their opponent in Super Bowl LV, the Chiefs have faced. A taste of their own medicine, if you will. It should be interesting to see how long it takes before Arians prompts (Offensive Coordinator) Byron Leftwich to run the football more, for during their winning streak into the postseason last year they averaged 106.2 rushing yards, including 122.5 in the playoffs. This would be a fine time for (veteran Tailback) Leonard Fournette () to regain his postseason form, for while he’s dealt with his own bumps and bruises throughout the campaign, he’s featured less of late with just nineteen touches in the last two games en route to totaling seventy-three yards. It would be a surprise if they got the run going in tonight’s meeting with the Giants, who certainly have the size and physicality in the trenches to counter the Bucs’ massive Offensive Line; when they met last year on Monday Night Football, Tampa Bay managed just eighty-one yards on twenty-four attempts, with Fournette rolling up fifty-two yards on fifteen carries. Brady, on the other hand, was 28-of-40 for 279 yards and two touchdowns, in what was yet another chapter in the lengthy history between the future Hall of Famer and arguably his most persistent adversary. Few teams have gotten to him like Big Blue, who dealt him two of the most notable losses of his venerable career; the first was Super Bowl XLII, in which New York stunned New England in their bid for perfection (17-14), followed by another nail-biter four years later in Super Bowl XLVI (21-17). Since Brady came to town, the Buccaneers are 1-1 on Monday Night Football, though the goat has traditionally faired well under the bright lights owning an 18-8 record (.692) with fifty-four touchdowns and twenty-seven turnovers.