4:00 PM EST, CBS – Line: Georgia -6.5, Over/Under: 50.5
Powerhouse programs collide once more as the (No. 1) Georgia Bulldogs face off against the (No. 3) Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. In a season in which very few teams have appeared to be a sure thing for the College Football Playoff, Georgia (12-0, 8-0 in SEC) has been the lone dominant program in 2021, and quite frankly it hasn’t even been close. The Bulldogs entered the campaign ranked fifth in the preseason poll, quickly rising to second after edging Clemson (10-3) in the season opener, before settling in atop the rankings in early October, a spot they haven’t come close to relinquishing. So just how dominant have (Head Coach) Kirby Smart’s charges been, you ask? Well, let’s take a look at the numbers, shall we? Apart from that battle with the Tigers, none of their other eleven games have been decided by fewer than seventeen points, with only four decided by margin fewer than thirty points. In fact, they’ve outscored their last five opponents by a staggering 182 points, punctuated by a 45-0 shutout of state rival, Georgia Tech last weekend. The greatest proponent of their success has been the defense, which has been nothing short of historic in yielding a mere 6.9 points per game (1st in FBS) on 230.9 total yards, including just 151.5 yards against the pass on a scant 4.9 yards per attempt, and another 79.4 yards versus the run on 2.5 yards per carry. (Defensive Coordinators) Glenn Schumann and Dan Lanning’s troops have relinquished double-digits on just four occasions, while pitching three shutouts en route to becoming the first defense since Alabama in 2011 to allow fewer than ten points over the course of a single season. As you can imagine, the Bulldogs are absolutely LOADED with talent on this side of the football on all levels; at 6′-6″, 340 lbs. (mammoth Nose Tackle) Jordan Davis (24 TKL, 3.5 TFL, 2.0 SK, ) has been a mountainous, immovable object in the trenches, engulfing blockers so that his teammates can make plays, with (Linebackers) Channing Tindall (57 TKL, 6 TFL, 4.5 SK, 1 FF) and Nakobe Dean (56 TKL, 7.5 TFL, 5.0 SK, 1 FF, 2 INT, 2 PD, 1 TD) flying all over the field, while (Edge-Rusher) Adam Anderson (32 TKL, 5.5 TFL, 5.5 SK, 1 PD) consistently creates havoc off the edge. Surprisingly, this group hasn’t gotten their hands on the football very often in registering a moderate sixteen takeaways, with that probably due to a young Secondary that has featured Freshman and Sophomores at the corners, though Safeties, Lewis Cine (54 TKL, 1 TFL, 1 INT, 8 PD) and Latavious Brini (38 TKL, 2.5 TFL, 8 PD) have carried the load with eight deflected passes apiece. With that said, the fact that they’ve posted the ridiculous numbers that they have without the benefit of a deluge of turnovers makes this unit look even more impressive, as Smart continues to build like a madman on the recruiting front. However, while the Defense has been the constant of all constants, the other side of the football has been far more interesting in Athens, and will likely be the key to bringing home the program’s first national championship since 1980. Make no mistake, this has been a make-shift offense that has been forced to adapt to a number injuries to key personnel, though (Offensive Coordinator) Todd Monken deserves a wealth of credit for keeping the unit together. (USC Transfer) J.T. Daniels (72.3%, 722 YDS, 7.7 Y/A, 7 TD, 3 INT) dazzled over the final four games of 2020 and was tabbed to be QB1 heading into the opener, but lasted just three games before suffering an abdominal tear that would sideline him for well over a month, while (Junior Receiver) George Pickens was lost for the season after tearing his ACL during spring drills. Furthermore, (massive Sophomore Tight End) Darnell Washington (8 REC, 140 YDS, 17.5 Y/R, 0 TD) missed the first five games of the schedule with an ailing foot, leaving the Bulldogs without a host of playmakers in the early stages of 2021. As the saying goes, when life hands us lemons, we make lemonade, and that is precisely what Monken has done with his charges, with a number of unheralded figures becoming playmakers for an offense that has pumped out 40.7 points per game (6th Overall) on a balanced 442.3 total yards. While there haven’t been any standouts in the run game, the ‘Dogs committee-like approach in the Backfield has served them well with five different Tailbacks receiving forty-five or more carries, led by (Junior) Zamir White (128 CAR, 691 YDS, 5.4 Y/A, 10 TD) who has churned out 691 yards and ten scores thus far. It’s been a similar story in the passing game, with four different pass-catchers totaling 300 or more receiving yards, chief among them (Freshman Tight End) Brock Bowers (37 REC, 652 YDS, 17.6 Y/R, 10 TD, who leads the group with ten receiving touchdowns. However, the biggest surprise has been the ascension of (Senior Quarterback) Stetson Bennett IV (65.0%, 1,985 YDS, 10.8 Y/A, 21 TD, 5 INT), who after being benched in favor of the aforementioned Daniels last year has really taken his play to another level after replacing his teammate in early October. Simply put, Bennett has looked night and day in comparison to his erratic form of 2020, raising his completion percentage by a whopping 9.5 points, improving his yards per attempt from 7.6 to 10.8, and exhibiting far better decision-making with twenty-one touchdowns in comparison to just five interceptions. Is he undersized? Sure, but as far as game managers go, Georgia could do a lot worse than the veteran, and it’s very telling that Smart has decided to stick with him despite Daniels’ return to health. With that said, Bennett MUST perform better this time around against the Crimson Tide than he did in last year’s meeting, a 41-24 romp by the eventual national champions in Tuscaloosa. It was arguably the worst showing of his collegiate career, completing just 18-of-40 passes for 269 yards, two touchdowns and career-high three interceptions, which set the stage for his benching two games later. And speaking of Alabama, Smart is searching for his first victory against his former employer, losing each of their previous three encounters. Of course, the 45-year-old has quite the history with Nick Saban (who we’ll get into very shortly), serving as his Defensive Backs Coach at LSU in 2004, before joining him in Tuscaloosa back in 2007, where he would spend eight years as his Defensive Coordinator. Thier first meeting as opposing coaches was in an epic 2017 National Championship, in which the Tide roared back to earn a 26-23 victory in overtime, before besting the Bulldogs 35-28 later that year in the 2018 SEC Title Game. While Georgia’s playoff chances likely won’t suffer from a loss tonight, you can bet that Smart will be looking for some payback as the student once again attempts to usurp the master.
Meanwhile, for the first time in quite a while there appears to be blood in the water for Alabama (11-1, 7-1 in SEC), who after securing their fifteenth national championship and sixth since 2009, find themselves on the precipice of missing out on the College Football Playoff for just the second time since its introduction back in 2014. While no Head Coach reloads from a personnel and coaching standpoint better than Nick Saban, it appears that the Crimson Tide may have finally lost TOO MUCH talent this time around for they have looked far from their inevitable selves in 2021. Indeed, no school has sent more talent to the professional level, with at least nine players selected in the NFL Draft every year since 2017, including a staggering TWENTY-ONE in the first round alone. Just last Spring, the reigning national champions said goodbye to their starting Quarterback, Tailback, Tight End, and three starting Offensive Linemen, along with their top-two Receivers, not to mention four Assistant Coaches and a number of analysts, and that was just on the offensive side of the football. With that said, they’ve still managed to score 42.7 points per game (5th in FBS) on a whopping 491.6 total yards, while limiting the opposition to 19.9 points (20th in FBS) on 292.5 total yards. So, with that in mind, why is everyone suddenly so down on the Tide? Well, as Saban indicated on his weekly radio show last week, they’ve set such a high standard for themselves that we often take them simply winning games for granted, expecting blowout after blowout instead. While they’ve certainly hammered their share of opponents this season, they’ve also survived a number of close calls, most recently a 24-22 victory at bitter rival, Auburn that required FOUR overtimes to crown a victor. Trailing throughout the latest installment of the Iron Bowl, the visitors couldn’t get much of anything going offensively until their final drive of the fourth quarter, when (Freshman Quarterback) Bryce Young (69.0%, 3,901 YDS, 9.43 Y/A, 40 TD, 4 INT) engineered a marathon-like 12-play, 97-yard drive culminating in a 28-yard touchdown strike to (Freshman Receiver) Ja’Corey Brooks (4 REC, 70 YDS, 17.5 Y/R, 1 TD) to send the affair into overtime. After trading blows throughout the first two extra periods, the two foes were forced to exchange two-point conversions, and after both breached the end zone in the third overtime, it would be only Saban’s troops to score in the fourth, as Young found (Junior Wideout) John Metchie (90 REC, 1,045 YDS, 11.6 Y/R, 7 TD) for the game-winner, which the defense would seal moments afterward. In the end, Young carried the load on offense, completing 25-of-51 passes for 317 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, making up for a rushing attack that could muster just sixty-four yards on thirty-six carries. In his first season in Tuscaloosa, Young has thrown his hat into the Heisman race, and by most metrics is the frontrunner in a season that has seen no clear favorites for the prestigious award; the Freshman has completed nearly 70.0% of his passes for 3,901 yards and forty touchdowns opposed to just four interceptions, and if he were to secure the trophy then he would become the fourth player in school history to join that fraternity, all of which coming under Saban’s watch. However, the attack has been one-dimensional at times, evidenced by their showing on the ground against Auburn, as well as mere THREE rushing yards in a narrow 20-14 victory over LSU a month ago, which marked a low during the Saban era. Without that balance, the Tide have found themselves relying upon the big play more often than they’d like, which was the case in last weekend’s Iron Bowl; the visiting side were a combined 9-of-26 on third and fourth down, while also committing eleven penalties for a loss of 129 yards. Furthermore, Young was sacked a season-high SEVEN times, which continuously put them in long yardage situations. With an Offensive Line that has been dealing with its share of injuries, and (Senior Tailback) Brian Robinson (206 CAR, 1,009 YDS, 4.9 Y/A, 14 TD) limping off the plains with an ailment of his own, it will likely be tough for this group to remain balanced in the face of Georgia’s overwhelming defensive front. Thankfully, Saban has a defense on hand that should be capable of keeping things close in Atlanta, thanks to eight returning starters from last year’s championship side; the Bulldogs aren’t the only defense with NFL-caliber talent, for (Defensive Coordinator) Pete Golding has (Sophomore Edge-Rusher) Will Anderson (76 TKL, 26 TKL, 13.0 SK, 2 PD), who leads the NCAA in both sacks (13) and tackles for loss (26), along with (Cornerbacks) Josh Jobe (26 TKL, 1 TFL, 2 INT, 3 PD) and Jalyn Armour-Davis (28 TKL, 1 TFL, 3 INT, 3 PD). When these two teams met last year in that aforementioned 41-24 blowout, Golding’s unit picked off Stetson Bennett three times, sacked him twice, and shut out ‘Dogs in the second half as the visitors ran off twenty-one unanswered points after intermission. It should be interesting to see how Saban matches up with yet another former pupil, for as we stated earlier, he is 3-0 against Smart. Then again, nobody hands out a whipping to his former assistants better than the 70-year-old, who was 24-0 in such matchups before falling to Jimbo Fisher’s Texas A&M in a wild 41-38 affair back on October 9th. It should also be said that the Crimson Tide NEED to win this game if they are to advance to yet another Playoff, for while the Bulldogs are in good standing with the CFP Committee no matter the outcome, the speculation is that two losses will indeed be too many to book another trip. Alabama leads the all-time series between these schools (41-24-3) and has won six consecutive meetings dating back to Saban’s arrival, which is currently the longest winning streak by either side, with their last defeat coming in his first season with the program (2007). Furthermore, the Crimson Tide are a commanding 5-2 in matchups in which both teams are ranked within the Top-10. However, tonight’s matchup has definitively ended one streak already, for ‘Bama enters as an underdog for the first time in since October 15th, 2015, snapping a ridiculous 92-game stretch in which they’ve been favored by oddsmakers. Ironically, the last time they were an underdog it was also against Georgia, whom they would go on to manhandle in a 38-10 drubbing in Athens. Will history repeat itself? We’ll have to wait and see…