1:00 PM EST, CBS – Line: Patriots -2.5, Over/Under: 43.5
The AFC East could very well be decided today as it’s past two champions battle for the second time in 2021 with the New England Patriots looking to clinch against the Buffalo Bills this afternoon from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. If the Bills (8-6, 2nd in AFC East) are to indeed repeat as division champions, then they must make a stand today and snap out of this uneven run that they’ve been on following their bye week back in late October. After getting off to a stellar 4-1 start, Buffalo found themselves on the wrong end of a thrilling 34-31 loss to the Tennessee Titans on primetime, as (reigning Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry trampled them to the tune of 143 yards and three touchdowns on that Monday night in Nashville. (Head Coach) Sean McDermott’s charges would head into their bye licking their wounds, and quite frankly haven’t been the same since that point in winning as many games as they’ve lost (4). In fact, this is a team that hasn’t managed to win consecutive games since winning four straight contests earlier in the campaign. So, what in the name Thurman Thomas is going on in Western New York, you ask? Well, you’re going to have read between the lines a bit, for this is a case in which the numbers don’t tell the full story; even with this mediocre run, the Bills have enjoyed the second-highest point differential in the National Football League at a sizable 151 points (10.7 P/G), and currently rank third overall in points (28.1), seventh in total offense (389.6), second in points allowed (17.4), and first in total defense (288.0). However, Buffalo has absolutely hammered the teams that they’re supposed to hammer, for with the exception of a puzzling 9-6 loss at the Jacksonville Jaguars, they’ve beaten every team .500 or worse that they’ve faced, with the combined win percentage of their vanquished opponents currently standing at a dreadful 41-57 (.418). In fact, the only team with a winning record that McDermott’s troops have beaten are the (reigning AFC Champion) Kansas City Chiefs, who with all due respect were in a VERY different place when they met in early October. Furthermore, they’ve outscored their opponents by a whopping 200 points in those eight wins, but in those six losses it’s been a totally different story altogether; these defeats have generally been much closer affairs, with the Bills coming up short by an average of 8.1 points with all but one of those contests decided by seven points or less. The issue is that the Offense, which has long been reliant upon the exploits of (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Josh Allen (65.2%, 3,734 YDS, 6.44 NY/A, 31 TD, 12 INT, 57.8 QBR) has been left wanting in those outings, while a defense that has forced the third-most turnovers in the NFL (27) has struggled to make big plays. In eight wins, Allen has completed 66.6% of his passes for an average of 273.1 yards per game on a healthy 8.05 net yards per attempt with twenty-two touchdowns opposed to six interceptions, but in those six losses has completed 63.6% of his passes for 258.2 yards on just 5.46 net yards per attempt with nine touchdowns in comparison to six interceptions, while also losing three fumbles. Furthermore, the offense counts on him a good deal on the ground, for at 555 rushing yards on ninety carries and a team-leading four touchdowns, Allen has accounted for 32.8% of their yardage and 25.2% of their attempts thus far. Essentially, if the 25-year-old isn’t Superman, then this Offense is bound to struggle, particularly within the red zone where their lack of a consistent rushing attack has hurt them on many occasions; the Bills have scored a touchdown on a middling 60.7% of their sixty-one trips into the red zone (13th Overall), and have been forced to settle for field goals far too frequently in this area of the gridiron, with (Kicker) Tyler Bass attempting thirteen inside of thirty yards. When we last saw Buffalo, they snapped a two-game losing streak with a 31-14 victory over the struggling Carolina Panthers last weekend, an affair in which the hosts put together a convincing effort that certainly addressed their issues. Despite suffering four sacks and an interception, Allen tossed three touchdowns with 210 passing yards on an uneven 19-of-34 attempts, connecting with (young Receiver) Gabriel Davis (29 REC, 470 YDS, 16.2 Y/R, 6 TD) for eighty-five yards and two of those scores on five receptions. (Offensive Coordinator) Brian Daboll was no doubt happy to see the running game get going with 119 yards on twenty-seven rushes, led by (young Tailback) Devin Singletary (134 CAR, 633 YDS, 4.7 Y/A, 3 TD), who posted season-highs in both carries (22) and yards (86) with a touchdown, while Allen added another twenty-four yards on three rushes. After punting on their first two drives, the home side exploded in the second quarter with seventeen points, including a pair of possessions of 50+ yards, with Singletary getting loose for a 16-yard jaunt into the end zone followed by Allen hitting (All-Pro Receiver) Stefon Diggs (82 REC, 1,007 YDS, 12.3 Y/A, 8 TD) for an 11-yard score on the ensuing drive. Defensively, the Bills were effective in slowing down Carolina’s disappointing attack, yielding just 275 total yards on nineteen first downs, with four sacks and a turnover, while stuffing them on four of five fourth down attempts. It was a bit of a homecoming for McDermott, who had served as the Panthers’ Defensive Coordinator from 2011 to 2016 and was all too happy to make life miserable for his former Quarterback, Cam Newton, relegating the former MVP to one touchdown and on interception on 18-of-38 passing, with four sacks and a pair of fumbles. They’ll be looking to repeat that performance in today’s rematch with the Patriots, whom they lost 14-10 during a driving windstorm three weeks ago. With frigid gusts blowing up to fifty-five miles per hour, Buffalo could manage just 230 total yards with Allen doing his best to drive the football downfield in inhospitable conditions, completing 15-of-30 attempts for 145 yards and a touchdown. With that said, all anyone could talk about was how New England battered them in the trenches, rushing the football FORTY-SIX times for 222 yards and attempting only THREE passes. McDermott and many of his players on that side of the football were understandably testy with the media after the affair, as they proved completely unable to stop the Patriots from moving the chains despite knowing exactly what was coming their way. (Massive Defensive Tackle) Star Lotulelei (16 TKL, 4 TFL, 3 QBH, 3.0 SK) hasn’t practiced all week due to personal reasons, and Allen will be without two of his favorite targets, Cole Beasley (76 REC, 640 YDS, 8.4 Y/R, 1 TD) and the aforementioned Davis, who have both landed on the NFL’s COVID/Reserve list, along with three Starting Offensive Linemen, Dion Dawkins, Jon Feliciano, and Cody Ford.
Meanwhile, after failing to win the AFC East for the first time in eleven years the Patriots (9-5, 1st in AFC East) find themselves just one win away from returning to their perch atop the division, and all they’re going to need to do is sweep the season series against the Bills. Since arriving in Foxborough back in 2000, (Head Coach) Bill Belichick has made Buffalo his personal punching bag, winning THIRTY-FIVE of forty-one meetings, including that aforementioned 14-10 victory in Orchard Park three weeks ago. With the wind blowing over fifty miles per hour, Belichick and (Offensive Coordinator) Josh McDaniels put together a game plan to keep the football almost exclusively on the ground, rushing the football forty-six times for 222 yards, allowing them to hold possession for a commanding 32:01. After trading punts on their opening drives, and forcing a fumble at midfield, the visitors would punt once more before eventually drawing first blood as (veteran Tailback) Damien Harris (164 CAR, 754 YDS, 4.6 Y/A, 9 TD) bounced untouched off Left Tackle to sprint SIXTY-FOUR yards downfield for the first touchdown of the game, with Belichick surprisingly going for two and converting on a Brandon Bolden (34 CAR, 172 YDS, 5.1 Y/A, 0 TD) run. Buffalo would strike back immediately, but from that point on it was all New England, who would kick field goals in the second and fourth quarters as the hosts missed a late 33-yarder before turning it over on downs on their final possession of the night. In the end, the Pats totaled 241 yards on just eleven first downs, converting just 2-of-12 attempts on third and 1-of-2 on fourth, as Harris led the way with 111 yards on ten attempts, followed by (Rookie Tailback) Rhamondre Stevenson (110 CAR, 465 YDS, 4.2 Y/A, 3 TD) adding another seventy-eight yards on twenty-four carries and the aforementioned Bolden with twenty-eight yards on four attempts. However, the biggest takeaway was that the Patriots attempted just THREE passes on the night, which turned out to be the fewest attempted in a victory in over thirty years. In fact, (Rookie Quarterback) Mac Jones (69.0%, 3,168 YDS, 6.50 NY/A, 18 TD, 10 INT, 52.2 QBR) was just 2-of-3 passing for nineteen yards, the fewest in a single game since 1978. Paltry yardage aside, this kid has played well beyond his years in his first voyage into the treacherous waters of the NFL, drawing many comparisons to the ascendance of a certain Hall-of-Fame Quarterback that reigned supreme in Foxborough for the better part of two decades. In twenty-plus years with the franchise, Belichick had never selected a passer in the first round of the NFL Draft, only to break that trend when he tabbed the reigning national champion with the fifteenth overall pick and entering December must be elated with his maturation. Arguably the frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year, the 23-year-old has played well beyond his years in completing an efficient 69.0% of his attempts for an average of 226.3 yards on 6.50 net yards per attempt, with eighteen touchdowns opposed to ten interceptions. Granted, (Offensive Coordinator) Josh McDaniels has kept things relatively simple for the rookie, but you can see him really starting to flourish since the middle of October; over the last eight weeks, Jones is stretching the field more with an average of 7.24 net yards per attempt while throwing eleven touchdowns in comparison to just four interceptions. When we last saw him, he nearly engineered a late comeback to best the surging Indianapolis Colts in a 27-17 loss last weekend. After winning six consecutive games, the Patriots were a bit of a mess early in this one, with a blocked punt followed by back-to-back interceptions, and a turnover on downs placing them in a 20-0 hole late in the third quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium. However, Jones & Co would finally get to work with seventeen unanswered points aided by a missed field goal and an interception. The visitors would drive sixty-one yards in nine plays culminating in a 12-yard score from Jones to (Tight End) Hunter Henry (41 REC, 471 YDS, 11.5 Y/R, 9 TD) followed by 12-play series ending in a Nick Folk field goal (25 YDS). Jones would then find Henry once again to cut the deficit to three points with just over two minutes to play, but their hopes of extending that winning streak to seven games were shattered as (Rushing Leader) Jonathan Taylor broke loose for 67-yard touchdown run, effectively ending the affair. In the end, the Patriots amassed 365 total yards on twenty first downs, though failed toe stablish much of a running threat with eighty-one yards on nineteen carries after falling behind by so much so quickly. In turn, Jones attempted FORTY-FIVE passes (his most since throwing fifty-one back in late September), completing just twenty-six in route to 299 yards with two touchdowns and interceptions apiece, with Henry reeling in six receptions on eight targets for seventy-seven yards and those two scores. For the first time in months, New England’s defense was manhandled on the ground, relinquishing 226 rushing yards on thirty-nine carries, with the aforementioned Taylor trampling them to the tune of 170 yards on twenty-nine attempts. Last Saturday’s loss was also notable for being the first game since an early October meeting with the Texans that Belichick’s troops lost the turnover battle (2-1), which has been a key during their six-game winning streak prior to the loss in Indy. The Pats have forced twenty-seven takeaways this season (3rd Overall), with eighteen of them coming during that span.