11:30 AM EST, ESPN – Line: North Carolina -9, Over/Under: 58.5
State borders separate today’s two bowl participants no longer, as the North Carolina Tar Heels take on the South Carolina Gamecocks for a renewal of acquaintances in today’s Mayo Bowl from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. After an 8-4 finish and reaching as high as fifth in the AP Poll, much was expected of North Carolina (6-6, 3-5 in ACC) coming into 2021, with many pundits predicting that they would in fact end Clemson’s lengthy reign atop the league. While the Tigers were indeed unseated from their iron throne, it wouldn’t be the Tar Heels to take their place, for (Head Coach) Mack Brown’s charges took a step backward this season, which in many ways was a predictable turn of events. Though the Atlantic Coast Conference was nothing to write home about this year, UNC proved unable to rise to the top of the league largely due to a massive drain of talent on the offensive side of the football. Last season, (Offensive Coordinator) Phil Longo’s troops set school records for total yards (537.2) and points per game (41.7), with returning Junior Quarterback, Sam Howell (62.7%, 2,851 YDS, 8.7 Y/A, 23 TD, 9 INT) a MAJOR reason for their success. A true Junior, Howell had one more season left in Chapel Hill before being eligible to take his talents to the National Football League and given his considerable CV he was garnering a good deal of preseason Heisman hype. Unfortunately, Howell and the offense as a whole failed to meet expectations, but what do you expect from a unit that lost its top two receivers and rushers, as the likes of Dyami Brown, Dazz Newsome, Michael Carter, and Javonte Williams are all plying their trade on the professional level? Together, that quartet was responsible for 2,385 rushing yards and 1,783 receiving yards and a grand total of FORTY-TWO touchdowns, including 2,355 of Howell’s 3,586 passing yards and nineteen of his thirty touchdowns, equating to 65.6% and 63.3% of his production in those respective categories. As a result, the Quarterback’s completion percentage dipped significantly from 68.1% to 62.7%, while his yards per attempt declined from a whopping 10.3 yards per pass to 8.7, tossing fewer touchdowns (23) and more interceptions (9). Part of the reason for that degeneration was due to Longo utilizing him far more in the run game where he churned out a career-high 825 yards and eleven touchdowns on 170 carries, which were three short of matching the team-lead. Of course, this transition opened Howell up to more hits than ever before, which seemed to take a toll on the Junior, with an upper body injury causing him to miss a 34-14 drubbing of Wofford before appearing clearly hampered throughout a 34-30 loss to instate rival, North Carolina State in the season finale. Howell completed just 14-of-26 passes for a season-low 147 yards, with a touchdown and interception apiece, though kept the Heels in the affair with ninety-eight rushing yards and a pair of scores. In fact, he was just two yards shy of his sixth 100-yard rushing game. Though he’s made his intentions clear in declaring for the NFL Draft, he will be starting for North Carolina today marking his final appearance with the program. Ironically, his collegiate career is about to come full circle as Howell’s time in Chapel Hill will come to a close against the same opponent that he made his first career start against, South Carolina; on a neutral field back in 2019, Howell guided UNC to a 24-20 victory over the Gamecocks, rallying back from a 20-9 deficit with fifteen unanswered points in the fourth quarter, including a pair of touchdown passes and a two-point conversion that he carried into the end zone himself. In the end, Howell completed 15-of-24 passes for 245 yards and two scores, earning the first of his twenty victories as the Starting Quarterback. Perhaps he’s opted against opting out of this postseason matchup because he wants to see Brown take a mayo bath? You read that correctly, folks, for the beloved 70-year-old has openly campaigned that if his team does manage to their neighbors to the south then he would welcome a bath of mayonnaise (instead of the traditional shower of Gatorade) in honor of the bowl’s corporate sponsor. It seems that even in barely breaking .500 this season that Brown is really enjoying his second tenure with the program; North Carolina had hit rock bottom towards the end of the Larry Fedora era winning just eight of twenty-three outings from 2017 to 2018, including a miserable 2-14 record in ACC play. Brown, who went 69-46 in his previous ten-year run with the Tar Heels, knows all about building from scratch in Chapel Hill; remember, he won just two games in first two years in charge before eventually logging three ten-win campaigns from 1993 to 1997. Upon returning in 2019, he immediately led them to bowl eligibility with a 7-6 finish before last year’s breakthrough and given the work that he and coaching staff have put in on the recruiting trail there is every reason to believe that UNC has even bigger things waiting for them in the future, with this year’s mediocrity likely a bump in the road towards sustainable success. And it’s with that said that ending this season with a win would be a huge boon to their momentum moving forward; North Carolina is 15-20 all-time in bowls, with Brown owning a stellar 14-9 record in such contests, including 4-3 with the Tar Heels.
Meanwhile, South Carolina (6-6, 3-5 in SEC) may have finished with an identical record to their opponent in today’s postseason matchup, but it’s had a far different, hopeful feel to it as they managed to improve by four games and win as many contests as they did in the previous two seasons combined. Indeed, the end of the Will Muschamp era was not a pretty sight in Columbia, with the former Head Coach relieved of his duties just seven games into the 2020 campaign despite outstanding circumstances that were due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Gamecocks proceeded to lose all three of their outings following his ousting, finishing the season at a miserable 2-8, marking their worst record since the turn of the century. And it was with that said that (Athletic Director) Ray Tanner set out to find someone who could effectively change the culture of a program in dire need of it, leading him to a familiar face from the past in the form of Shane Beamer. An assistant to Steve Spurrier from 2007 to 2010, Beamer played no small part in the team’s success during that period, helping to build a roster that would go on to win eleven games in three consecutive seasons, which was by far and away the most successful stretch in school history. From there, he went to work for his father Frank at Virginia Tech (2011-2015) before further plying his trade at powerhouses Georgia (2016-2017) and Oklahoma (2018-2020), serving as Lincoln Riley’s Assistant Head Coach with the Sooners. Back in Columbia, the 44-year-old is proving to be a far better fit for program than his predecessor despite losing a wealth of players to the Transfer Portal and having to implement a completely new set of ideas. Along with (Offensive Coordinator) Marcus Satterfield and (Defensive Coordinator) Clayton White, Beamer has gone to great lengths to simplify the terminology and schemes on both sides of the football, with the defense improving dramatically in yielding a respectable 24.2 points per game (46th in FBS) after serving up a miserable 36.0 points (105th in FBS) a year ago. The pass defense in particular has grown exponentially, permitting just 176.5 yards through the air on 57.8% passing and 6.7 yards per attempt, with as many interceptions as passing touchdowns allowed (15), and that’s without All-SEC Cornerback, Jaycee Horn manning the boundary. (Senior Safety) Jaylan Foster (91 TKL, 5 TFL, 2.0 SK, 2 FF, 5 INT, 2 PD) has been outstanding with a team-high ninety-one tackles, five interceptions and a pair of forced fumbles, while (Sophomore Cornerback) Cam Smith (41 TKL, 2.5 TFL, 1 FF, 3 INT, 11 PD) has filled the void left by Horn, with three interceptions and eleven passes defended. White’s 4-2-5 scheme has seen South Carolina predominantly in nickel formations, which is partly due to a lack of depth at Linebacker and why they’ve been susceptible to the run (179.2 Y/G), but it’s also afforded him the luxury of having his best players on the field. However, the ‘Cocks will be without the services of arguably their best defender, (Senior Edge-Rusher) Kingsley Enagbare (43 TKL, 7 TFL, 4.5 SK, 1 FF, 1 FR, 2 PD), who tied for the team lead with seven tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks and has so chosen to opt out of today’s bowl in favor of preparing for the NFL Draft. The biggest question for today is what we can expect from the offense, which has very much been a work in progress this season. South Carolina averaged 23.5 points per game (98th in FBS) on 355.1 total yards in 2020 and have since taken a step backward to just 21.3 points (109th in FBS) on 321.7 yards this year. Twenty-three turnovers have hurt them a great deal, but by far and away the biggest issue that has plagued them is that Beamer doesn’t have a Quarterback that he’s confident in, with three different players getting the starting nod, including (Senior) Zeb Noland (55.6%, 597 YDS, 6.6 Y/A, 6 TD, 1 INT), (Sophomore) Luke Doty (60.6%, 975 YDS, 6.9 Y/A, 5 TD, 3 INT), and (Junior) Jason Brown (55.6%, 721 YDS, 6.7 Y/A, 8 D, 6 INT). All three have started at least four games this season, and none of them have managed to impress; after transferring from Iowa State, Noland was initially named the starter before giving way to Doty, who would five starts before being benched in favor of Brown, who played well at (FCS) Saint Francis, but lost all of 2020 due to the pandemic. Brown didn’t make much of an impact either, causing Beamer to go back to where he started with Noland, which has in turn hastened Brown’s exit as the Senior once again entered the Transfer Portal. Among the three signal-callers, Noland has taken the best care of the football, which as you can imagine has informed his coach’s decision heading into this matchup with North Carolina where they’ll no doubt need to score plenty of points to earn the win. Given his struggles though, we can expect the Gamecocks to keep the football largely on the ground with (Junior Tailback) Kevin Harris (121 CAR, 476 YDS, 3.9 Y/A, 3 TD) and (Senior Tailback) Zaquandre White (88 CAR, 583 YDS, 6.6 Y/A, 2 TD) figuring to get most of the looks against a porous run defense. Harris authored only the eleventh 1,000-yard season in school history last year but has struggled to replicate that form in Satterfield’s system, averaging a disappointing 3.9 yards per rush after churning out a healthy 6.2 a year ago. This meeting with North Carolina marks the fifty-seventh between the two schools, with the Heels leading the series 33-19-4, despite SC winning seven of the last ten encounters. All-time, South Carolina hasn’t fared very well in bowls with a miserable 9-14 record, though have managed to win five of their last seven postseason affairs. Granted, five of their nine victories have come during the Spurrier era, but there is reason to believe that Beamer knows what he’s doing and replicate that success. After all, he’s already hit the recruiting trail hard along with the Transfer Portal, landing (former Oklahoma Quarterback) Spencer Rattler (74.9%, 1,483 YDS, 7.9 Y/A, 11 TD, 5 INT), whom he coached for three years in Norman. Last season, Rattler accounted for 3,191 total yards and thirty-four touchdowns, making him a welcome addition to the program. Get excited Gamecocks fans, for it appears that those Quarterback woes are coming to an end…