3:30 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Alabama -13.5, Over/Under: 58
After a month of buildup, the College Football Playoff is finally among us with the first National Semifinal contested today as the (No. 1) Alabama Crimson Tide battle the (No. 4) Cincinnati Bearcats in the Cotton Bowl from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The more things change, the more they stay the same at Alabama (12-1, 8-1 in SEC) where the reigning National Champions once again find themselves in the Playoff, making their sixth appearance since its inception back in 2014 which is by far and away the most of any in school in the country. After losing another handful of talented players and coaches in the offseason, (Head Coach) Nick Saban has again reloaded with his charges playing their best football at precisely the right time. After falling to unranked Texas A&M in a stunning upset (41-38) back on October 9th, many were quick to write off the Crimson Tide as candidates for the Playoff, which turned out to be a boon for Saban & Co who reveled in the opportunity to be underestimated. Following that defeat they would go on to win each of their seven remaining contests, including an epic 24-22 victory over bitter rival, Auburn, that took four overtimes to crown a winner, before heading into a titanic clash with top-ranked Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, which featured something that we’ve rarely seen: Alabama as an underdog. Indeed, that matchup would mark the first time since October 3rd of 2015 that the oddsmakers did not designate the Tide as betting favorites, which would serve as a portent of things to come. Who did they face in that fateful affair six years ago, you ask? Georgia. And what was the outcome? Saban’s troops rolled to a 38-10 victory en route to eventually winning a National Championship. And it’s with that said that history would repeat itself, as the reigning champs turned out the SEC East Champions once more, hammering them in a 41-24 rout that proved that they are still king of the proverbial mountain. While many expected a tightly contested slugfest between heavyweights, this affair turned out to be as one-sided as any of their many blowouts this season, for while the Bulldogs would establish an early 10-0 lead, the SEC West Champions would strike back with seventeen unanswered points before eventually heading into intermission with a 24-17 lead. From there, the Tide would dominate the second half of play, as (Sophomore Quarterback) Bryce Young (68.0%, 4,322 YDS, 9.3 Y/A, 43 TD, 4 INT) hit (Junior Receiver) Jameson Williams (68 REC, 1,445 YDS, 21.3 Y/R, 15 TD) for a 55-yard touchdown on their first drive of the third quarter, before (Junior Safety) Jordan Battle (74 TKL, 1 TFL, 3 INT, 3 PD, 2 TD) picked off (Georgia Quarterback) Stetson Bennett early in the final period returning it forty-two yards to the house breaking the game wide open. In the end, Alabama earned their seventh SEC title in ten years, eviscerating the top-ranked defense in the country for 536 total yards, with Young completing 26-of-44 passes for 421 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for another forty yards and a score. To put this performance into perspective, Georgia had previously allowed a mere 6.9 points per game on 230.9 total yards in 2021, including just 151.5 versus the pass on a scant 4.9 yards per attempt. In fact, that forty-one points scored was more than the ‘Dogs had permitted in the previous four games COMBINED. And it would be that performance that ultimately earned Young the 2021 Heisman Memorial Trophy, becoming the second straight member of the Crimson Tide to take home those honors and the fourth in school history. Indeed, the underclassman played well beyond his years throughout the campaign, with his passing numbers comparing very favorably to the two Quarterbacks that preceded him in Tuscaloosa, Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones. All three passers have thrown forty or more touchdowns at least once in their respective careers, with Young matching Tagovailoa’s school record of forty-three in 2018. It’s been interesting to see this team evolve into an offensive juggernaut over the past few years, built around a prolific passing game with no shortage of playmakers in the Receiving Corps. After saying goodbye to the aforementioned Jones (4,500 YDS, 41 TD) along with Receivers, DeVonta Smith (1,856 YDS, 23 TD) and Jaylen Waddle (591 YDS, 4 TD), and not to mention (Offensive Coordinator) Steve Sarkisian, it was next man up for the Crimson Tide, with Young enjoying an excellent rapport with the aforementioned Williams and fellow Receiver, John Metchie (96 REC, 1,142 YDS, 11.9 Y/R, 8 TD), while Bill O’Brien has become the latest former Head Coach to slide into the playcalling seat and revitalize himself. Alabama has averaged forty or more points per game for a school-record fourth consecutive season (42.5) on a staggering 495.0 total yards, with the focus transitioning more to the passing game than ever before. However, while it’s certainly difficult to pick out any weaknesses with this group, there are some chinks in the armor that could potentially be exploited today or in a week’s time; as prolific as they’ve become passing the football, the run game hasn’t met the standard that we’ve come to expect during Saban’s time in Tuscaloosa, churning out 147.1 yards on 4.1 yards per carry, which would mark the two lowest such figures since the 70-year old arrived back in 2007. They were relegated below 100 rushing yards on three occasions this season, including a season-low SIX yards in a 20-14 win over LSU in early November, and have been kept under 4.0 yards per carry on five occasions, with three of them coming in their final five games of the schedule. (Fifth-year Senior Tailback) Brian Robinson (222 CAR, 1,064 YDS, 4.8 Y/A, 14 TD) has played through minor injuries throughout the season, including the SEC Championship, though may be called upon to feature more prominently given that the passing attack will be without the aforementioned Metchie, who tore his ACL in that win over Georgia. The Junior easily led the team in receptions (96) with twenty-eight more than the closest player, with Young focusing predominantly on he and Williams. Apart from those two, ‘Bama didn’t have another player haul in more than thirty-two passes, with one of them being Robinson (32 REC) and given that Metchie has primarily been the go-to guy on short to intermediate throws, it wouldn’t be surprising to see O’Brien utilize the Tailback in that role. We’ll see how they adjust to that turn of events in this matchup; in their six trips to the Playoff, the Crimson Tide have handled the Semifinals with relative ease, for after falling to Ohio State back in 2014 they’ve won five straight semis by an average margin of 20.2 points with none of those games being decided by fewer than eleven points.
Meanwhile, after covering goliath we’d like to introduce you to David, or in other words Cincinnati (13-0, 9-0 in AAC), who have made history in becoming the first Group of Five program to participate in the Playoff. Finally, somebody outside of the Power-Five conferences has crashed the VIP section of the sports’ elite, and for their efforts the Bearcats receive a date with the reigning national champions, setting up the most palpable narrative in sports: can this team REALLY pull off the upset? Seriously, this would be like the Giants beating the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII, and the most embarrassing fact is that even if they did manage to knock off the Crimson Tide, they would still need to beat another elite opponent in order to bring the school its first ever National Championship. So, let’s get back to that question shall we: can Cincy pull off the upset? Well, this is football, so the answer is yes, for the timeless adage “any given Sunday” or in this case Friday, applies to this matchup. However, the more appropriate question is not IF they can do it, but HOW do they do it? Make no mistake, even though these guys don’t ply their trade in the SEC or Big Ten doesn’t mean they’re not capable of competing with teams from those leagues. Since (Head Coach) Luke Fickell arrived in Southern Ohio back in 2017, he has built this program into an elite one not just by Group of Five standards, but overall standards. Inheriting a program on the decline, the 48-year-old has gone a remarkable 44-6 (.880) over the last four seasons, and just last January gave Georgia everything they could handle in the Peach Bowl, leading 21-10 in the fourth quarter before ultimately succumbing to a late rally. During Fickell’s tenure they have faced eight Power-Five schools, beating five of them, though they haven’t defeated any that were ranked, which includes the likes of Michigan (14-36), Ohio State (0-42), and that aforementioned affair with Georgia (21-24). While you can certainly make the argument that they’ve met their ceiling in terms of scaling the quality of their opposition, they did earn the biggest win in the history of their program back in early October when they stormed into South Bend and defeated (No. 9) Notre Dame in a 24-13 outing. Cincinnati absolutely OWNED the first half of this one, scoring seventeen unanswered points in the second quarter to take a commanding 17-0 lead into intermission, and while the Fighting Irish made a game out of it, (Senior Quarterback) Desmond Ridder (65.9%, 3,190 YDS, 9.0 Y/A, 30 TD, 8 INT) came up huge in the fourth quarter with a late rushing touchdown to best a team that this time last year was set to face off with the Tide. Speaking of Ridder, the Heisman finalist possesses the requisite DNA of a Quarterback that has given Alabama problems in the past, with his toughness and mobility allowing him to make plays when things break down. Think back to how the likes of Johnny Manziel, Deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence, and Joe Burrow have given Saban’s defense fits in past encounters, and while he probably isn’t the NFL prospect that those Quarterbacks were coming out of college (though many people in the state of Ohio would argue against that point), he’s been a playmaker in every sense of the word. A fourth-year starter, Ridder has improved with each passing year, and this season really began making bigger plays downfield in the passing game, averaging a career-high 9.0 yards per attempt with thirty touchdowns opposed to eight interceptions. Against Georgia he completed 24-of 37 passes for 206 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and in this year’s meeting with Notre Dame amassed 323 total yards and three scores. Needless to say, he won’t be wowed by what ‘Bama has to offer today. Oh, and he’s a bonafide winner, logging a stellar 44-5 (.897) record in his time with the Bearcats, which is the most in school history and the most victories of any active Starting Quarterback in the country at the moment. With all that said, this group is far more than simply the Desmond Ridder Show, for on the other side of the football you will find that Fickell has built the most opportunistic defense in the nation; Cincinnati leads the FBS with a whopping THIRTY-THREE takeaways thus far, leading to a healthy Plus-14 differential that is certainly conducive to success. Few things effect the outcomes of these games like turnovers do, and nobody has been better in this regard than the Bearcats, who at one point early in the campaign forced at least three of them in five consecutive games. Fifteen different players have logged at least one takeaway, with arguably the nation’s top Secondary doing the bulk of the work. (Cornerbacks) Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner (35 TKL, 4 TFL, 3.0 SK, 3 INT, 4 PD), Coby Bryant (40 TKL, 1.5 TFL, 2 FF, 2 INT, 11 PD, 1 TD), and Arquon Bush (36 TKL, 2 TFL, 1.0 SK, 3 INT, 6 PD), along with (Safeties) Ja’Von Hicks (48 TKL, 2 TFL, 1 FR, 2 INT, 3 PD) and Bryan Cook (87 TKL, 5 TFL, 1.0 SK, 1 INT, 9 PD) comprise a unit that has relinquished just 167.5 passing yards on 5.6 yards per attempt with eight more interceptions (18) than touchdowns allowed (10). With (Defensive Coordinator) Mike Tressel employing largely nickel formations in his preferred 3-3-5 scheme, this group is frequently in a position to make plays with a combined 14.5 tackles for loss, five sacks, eleven interceptions, and thirty-four defended passes. As we touched upon earlier, the Tide will be missing one of their biggest weapons in the passing game, and while we certainly understand that they have at least a handful of five-star recruits in reserve just waiting to make an impact, that is an advantage that the Bearcats will need to press as Fickell and his coaching staff must place an emphasis on jamming their receivers at the line of scrimmage and disrupting the timing of their routes, in turn creating the opportunity for takeaways. So, getting back to that initial question: how does Cincy pull the upset? If you’ve read this far then you’ve seen that the recipe is there to shock the world and they’ll have more than a few pulling for them, but they could just as likely get ran out of AT&T Stadium as Fickell starts to eye the next step of his coaching career. Today’s encounter marks the sixth in the history of these schools and the first since 1990, with the Crimson Tide unsurprisingly winning them all by a combined 129 points. We have a sneaky suspicion that this one may be a bit closer than those…