
4:30 PM EST, CBS – Line: Titans -3.5, Over/Under: 47.5

After an entertaining Wild Card Weekend, the wheat has begun to separate itself from the chafe as the surging Cincinnati Bengals look to take down the top-seeded Tennessee Titans in this Divisional Round matchup from Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. Has any team in the National Football League made a greater leap this season than the Bengals (10-7, 1st in AFC North), who have managed to exercise a wealth of demons en route to this encounter with the Titans? After stumbling to a combined 6-25-1 record over the last two years and finishing in the cellar of the AFC North in each of the last three, Cincinnati has been reborn in 2021, winning their first division title since 2015 and advancing to the playoffs for the first time in six years as a result. While that’s certainly an impressive feat for a young team that appears well ahead of schedule, nothing could compare to this group alleviating a 30-year burden from not just the franchise, but the city as well, earning their first postseason victory since January 6th, 1991. Indeed, last weekend’s 26-19 triumph over the Raiders was significant for a plethora of reasons, though none more so than ending that dreadful drought against the same team that it began against three decades ago. Meeting for the second time this season, the difference between these two sides was that one managed to break through into the end zone while the other settled for far too many field goals. Would you care to take a guess as to who was who? After Las Vegas opened their ledger with a field goal, the hosts marched seventy-five yards downfield in ten plays, as (Sophomore Quarterback) Joe Burrow (70.4%, 4,611 YDS, 7.43 NY/A, 34 TD, 14 INT, 54.4 QBR) found (Tight End) C.J. Uzomah (49 ERC, 493 YDS, 10.1 Y/R, 5 TD) for a 7-yard strike to take the lead. Following a strip sack of (Raiders Quarterback) Derek Carr on the ensuing possession, Cincy would go on to kick field goals on their next two drives to stretch their lead to 13-3 early in the second quarter. After halting the Silver & Black at the 10-yard line and relinquishing another field goal, Burrow went on to engineer a 12-play, 82-yard drive concluding with a short strike to (Receiver) Tyler Boyd (67 REC, 828 YDS, 12.4 Y/R, 5 TD) for a 10-yard score. This affair proved to be a great test of this young team’s patience, for after relying upon big plays throughout the campaign, the Raiders’ numerous shell coverages forced Burrow to patiently probe for weak spots in their zones. Ironically, it was the Bengals’ defense that was the deciding factor in this one, as (Defensive Coordinator) Lou Anarumo’s troops clamped down on Vegas’ attack each time they crossed over into the home side’s territory. Despite relinquishing 385 total yards, Cincinnati relegated the visiting side to just one touchdown on their five trips into the red zone, with (unheralded Linebacker) Germaine Pratt (91 TKL, 5 TFL, 2 QBH, 0.5 SK, 2 FF, 2 FR, 1 INT, 2 PD) making the play of the game in intercepting Carr on a 4th & Goal from the 9-yard line ending the contest altogether. Though there was certainly some officiating controversy in this one, particularly a phantom whistle on that touchdown to Boyd, it’s impossible to walk away from last weekend’s win without giving this defense it’s due. On the year, Cincy allowed a middling 22.1 points per game (17th Overall) on 350.9 total yards (18th Overall) but were one of the league’s best against the run (102.5 Y/G) and were adept at getting to the Quarterback (42 Sacks). A major reason for their growth has been a quartet of shrewd additions in Free Agency, poaching young contributors entering their prime from winning organizations; (Defensive Linemen) Trey Hendrickson (34 TKL, 12 TFL, 27 QBH, 14.0 SK, 3 FF) and Larry Ogunjobi (49 TKL, 12 TFL, 16 QBH, 7.0 SK) along with (Defensive Backs) Chidobe Awuzie (64 TKL, 4 TFL, 2 INT, 14 PD) and Mike Hilton (66 TKL, 8 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 FF, 2 INT, 5 PD, 1 TD) arrived from New Orleans, Cleveland, Dallas, and Pittsburgh respectively with each sporting vital postseason experience and playing a role in their team’s growth. Hendrickson set both a career-high and franchise record with fourteen sacks (including that strip of Carr last Saturday) en route to his first Pro-Bowl nod, while Ogunjobi also logged a personal best with seven sacks of his own. However, as well as the defense played last weekend, the Bengals are in the playoffs on the strength of Burrow and the offense, which features an embarrassment of riches in terms of young talent. (Head Coach) Zac Taylor and (de facto General Manager) Mike Brown have drafted brilliantly of late, particularly on this side of the football where their passing attack has become one of the most explosive in the NFL. This is where the ascension of Burrow comes into play, with the former no. one overall pick improving exponentially after missing the final six games of his rookie campaign with a torn ACL. In sixteen starts this season, the 25-year-old finished as the league-leader in completion percentage (70.4%) and yards per attempt (8.9), while setting franchise records in passing touchdowns (34) and passing yards (4,611). Furthermore, he’s entered his first postseason with a wealth of momentum, for in his final two starts of the campaign, a 41-21 drubbing of the Ravens followed by a 34-31 upset of the Chiefs, Burrow completed nearly 80.0% of his attempts for 971 yards and eight touchdowns. As you can imagine, he’s had no shortage of weapons, with a quartet of homegrown targets routinely making plays in the passing game, including Tee Higgins (74 REC, 1,091 YDS, 14.7 Y/R, 6 TD) and the aforementioned Boyd and Uzomah. However, the biggest gun in their arsenal has been (Rookie Receiver) Ja’Marr Chase (81 REC, 1,455 YDS, 18.0 Y/R, 13 TD), who is the overwhelming favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Though many were clamoring for the Bengals to select a pass-protector at fifth overall in last Spring’s NFL Draft (and why wouldn’t they after what happened to Burrow?), the faithful in Cincinnati are undoubtedly happy that they opted to reunite their Quarterback with one of his favorite collegiate targets, as Chase has gone on to make franchise history by shattering Chad Johnson’s single-season receiving record with a prolific 1,455 yards, highlighted by a rookie record 266 yards in that victory over Kansas City two weeks ago. Furthermore, this kid is a threat to go the distance every single time he touches the football, evidenced in eight of his thirteen touchdowns traveling thirty yards or more, including five of which that encompassed at least fifty yards, two coming against the Chiefs. So, where do the Bengals go from here, you ask? Are they content with finally getting that monkey off their back, or are they still hungry for more? The last time that this franchise advanced to an AFC Championship Game was all the way back in 1989, which of course preceded their last Super Bowl appearance. Over the last decade, Cincy has won three of four meetings with Tennessee, including last year’s 31-20 encounter at Paul Brown Stadium. This one was a bit of an eye-opener, folks, for the hosts outclassed a previously 5-1 Titans side in racing out to a 17-7 halftime lead before Burrow led them on a pair of lengthy touchdown drives in the fourth quarter. In the end, Taylor’s charges dominated time of possession (35:57) despite relinquishing 218 rushing yards, completing 10-of-15 third downs, and setting the tone early with an interception of Tannehill on the visitors’ opening drive. In just his eighth start, Burrow showed out with 249 yards and two touchdowns on 26-of-37 passing, with Higgins and Boyd combining for twelve catches for 145 yards and a score. Oh, and if you’re looking for one last link to their past, we’ve got you covered. Prior to last weekend’s triumph, who was the last team that the Bengals beat in the playoffs, you ask? The Houston Oilers, who ironically relocated to Nashville back in 1997 and changed their name to (drum roll please…) the Titans.

Meanwhile, the pressure in this encounter is squarely on the shoulders of the Titans (12-5, 1st in AFC South), who undoubtedly welcome it after finishing a regular season in which they overcame each hurdle placed before them. If we told you that Tennessee managed to fend off a gauntlet of competition within the AFC to secure their first no. one seed in thirteen years despite going large swaths of the campaign without arguably their three most prominent playmakers, you’d probably have questioned our sobriety. However, that’s exactly what has happened as (Head Coach) Mike Vrabel lost (two-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry (219 CAR, 937 YDS, 4.3 Y/A, 10 TD) back in week eight with a broken bone in the All-Pro’s foot, while (Pro-Bowl Receivers) A.J. Brown (63 REC, 869 YDS, 13.8 Y/R, 5 TD) and Julio Jones (31 REC, 434 YDS, 14.0 Y/R, 1 TD) missed four and seven games respectively with various maladies. Furthermore, the defense’s biggest addition, (Edge-Rusher) Bud Dupree (17 TKL, 2 TFL, 8 QBH, 3.0 SK, 1 FF, 1 PD), only started six games in his return from a torn ACL suffered late in 2020. With all that said, the Titans remained stubbornly resilient, going 6-3 after Henry’s injury en route to winning their second consecutive division title, and earning that precious first round bye which has set them up to be the healthiest that they’ve been at any point during what was the longest regular season in NFL history. Though many of their biggest wins came months ago, we’d like to remind you of just what this team is capable of when they’re at full strength; Tennessee bested both the Bills (34-31) and Chiefs (27-3) in successive weeks earlier in the campaign, while sweeping the Colts in their two meetings and even stunned the Rams (28-16) on a Monday night in their first game without Henry, before edging the 49ers (20-17) a month ago. So, how have they kept it together, you ask? Well, this is a team that rarely beats themselves under Vrabel’s watch, going without a turnover in five of those nine games without the herculean Tailback, and enjoying a healthy plus-9 takeaway differential in those outings. The fact that they’ve managed to continue to run the football so successfully without him has been rather remarkable, as (Offensive Coordinator) Todd Downing’s charges have churned out 135.9 rushing yards on 4.2 yards per carry in his absence, which compares nicely with the 147.6 yards on 4.5 yards per attempt that they posted with him lining up in the Backfield. (Unheralded Tailbacks) D’Onta Foreman (133 CAR, 566 YDS, 4.3 Y/A, 3 TD) and Dontrelle Hilliard (56 CAR, 350 YDS, 6.3 Y/A, 2 TD) have performed well when given the opportunity, with both ‘Backs averaging over 4.0 yards per carry, which has allowed Downing to keep the structure of the offense in place, with (veteran Quarterback) Ryan Tannehill (67.2%, 3,734 YDS, 5.89 NY/A, 21 TD, 14 INT, 56.2 QBR) judiciously taking his shots downfield. With that said, this hasn’t been the easiest of campaigns for Tannehill, who after transitioning to a new offensive playcaller struggled to get on the same page with both Brown and Jones due to their absence with injuries. Simply put, this passing game looked much better on paper than it ever did on the gridiron in 2021, with the 33-year-old Quarterback posting the lowest touchdown percentage (4.0%), yards per attempt (7.0), yards per completion (10.5), net yards per attempt (5.89), and QBR (56.2) of his three-year tenure with the franchise, along with a career-worst fourteen interceptions. He was also sacked on forty-seven occasions, one shy of doubling his total from a year ago, though he did continue to make an impact out of the pocket as a rusher, amassing 270 yards and matching last year’s total of seven touchdowns. Though the big plays that defined his first two years in Nashville have been largely absent, Tannehill has remained a winner in every sense of the word; since arriving as a castaway from Miami back in 2019, all this guy has done is win thirty of his forty-three starts, with his winning percentage during that span (.697) ranking fifth in the league behind the likes of Aaron Rodgers (.812), Patrick Mahomes (.770), Lamar Jackson (.738), and Tom Brady (.734), who have each won at least one MVP award in their careers. On the flipside, as high as their highs have been in 2021, there have certainly been some lowly lows for the Titans, who at times are capable of self-destructing when you least expect it. One of the criticisms of Vrabel’s time in Nashville has been that his charges oftentimes play to the level of their competition, for how else can you explain some of the puzzling losses that they’ve suffered? Tennessee inexplicably lost to both the Jets (27-24) and Texans (22-13), were lifeless in a defeat to the Steelers (19-13), and courted disaster in close calls against both the Seahawks (33-30) and Saints (23-21) with, only one of those sides making the playoffs. Furthermore, in their five losses they’ve turned over the football wholesale, committing sixteen of their twenty-five turnovers in those contests, equating to an insurmountable minus-14 differential. That translates to an average of 3.2 giveaways per loss, which is simply untenable no matter how much firepower you have. With that said, apart from totaling four turnovers in that loss at Pittsburgh, Vrabel’s charges haven’t committed a single turnover since their bye week back in early December, and we would expect that trend to continue with the return of Henry, who was removed from Injured Reserve last week and is expected to be active today. How big of a deal is this turn of events, you ask? Well, prior to suffering a small fracture in his right foot, the 28-year-old was running away with what would have been a third consecutive rushing title with 937 yards and 10 touchdowns and remained atop the league for roughly another month following his injury. Over the last four seasons, nobody has amassed more rushing yards (5,563), carries (1,115), or touchdowns (55) than Henry, who has also saved some of his greatest performances for the postseason. In six contests, he’s averaged 111.6 yards on 4.9 yards per attempt with three touchdowns, including a 156-yard romp of the Chiefs in his playoff debut four years ago, followed by 377 yards in back-to-back wins over the Patriots and Ravens during the Titans magical run to the AFC Championship a year later. In that aforementioned encounter with the Bengals last season, Henry accounted for 112 of his team’s 218 rushing yards, with Tennessee ripping off sizable chunks of yardage on the ground on 7.5 yards per attempt. Apart from a slow start in that affair, they lost this game primarily because they couldn’t get Burrow & Co. off the field, which was a problem all year for a defense that ranked dead-last in the NFL on third down (51.9%). Vrabel and (General Manager) Jon Robinson placed an emphasis on fixing that aspect of the defense during the offseason, and they must be pleased to see exponential improvement in that department; the Titans ranked sixth overall in third down defense this season (36.7%), thanks in large part to a completely revamped Secondary and a pass-rush that has been far more successful in pressuring Quarterbacks. Tennessee received career years out of (Edge-Rusher) Harold Landry (74 TKL, 14 TFL, 22 QBH, 12.0 SK, 1 FF) and (Defensive Linemen) Jeffery Simmons (54 TKL, 12 TFL, 16 QBH, 8.5 SK, 6 PD) and Denico Autrey (31 TKL, 10 TFL, 18 QBH, 9.0 SK, 6 PD), who together accounted for 29.5 of their forty-three sacks, a marked improvement upon the nineteen that they mustered a year ago. Even Dupree is starting to heat up after being slow to recover from that knee injury, with two of his three sacks and six of his seventeen pressures coming in the last four games. This may be relevant given that Burrow has been sacked more frequently than any Quarterback in the league this year, suffering FIFTY-ONE in sixteen starts, which equates to 3.1 per game and one sack on every 10.1 dropbacks. If they can get to Burrow then this one could very well be in their pocket, and they’ll be off to their second AFC Championship Game in three years. However, being a no. one seed hasn’t been kind to the Titans in the past, for they have worn that distinction on two previous occasions since moving to Nashville, and they lost to the Ravens in the Division Round in each instance (2000 and 2008).