8:15 PM EST, FOX- Line: Packers -5.5, Over/Under: 47
The best weekend in the National Football League continues with another rematch of classic franchises, as the top-seeded Green Bay Packers host the surging San Francisco 49ers in tonight’s Division Round matchup from historic Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Though it may not seem like it now, this season was always set up to be a crucial one for the 49ers (10-7, 3rd in NFC West), who after advancing all the way to Super Bowl LIV two years ago, slumped to a disappointing 6-10 finish in 2020 courtesy of a roster ravaged by injuries. However, after getting off to a slow 2-4 start, San Francisco has caught fire, winning eight of their final eleven games of the regular season en route to pulling the only upset of the postseason to this point, eliminating the Cowboys in last weekend’s 23-17 triumph. in front of a raucous crowd at AT&T Stadium, (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan set the tone early as his charges took the opening possession seventy-five yards downfield in seven plays, with (Rookie Tailback) Elijah Mitchell (207 CAR, 963 YDS, 4.7 Y/A, 5 TD) breaching the end zone on a 4-yard run, before extending their lead to 13-0 following two straight field goals. The Niners’ first three drives encompassed 16:38 of game time, while the hosts could only hold the football for a mere 3:42. After Dallas finally got on the board on their third possession, San Francisco would add another field goal to head into intermission with a 16-7 lead, having outgained the home side 208-90 and squatting on the football for 19:14. With that said, the second half of this affair was WILD; after exchanging punts, (Defensive Tackle) D.J. Jones (56 TKL, 10 TFL, 3 QBH, 2.0 SK, 2 FF, 1 PD) sacked Dak Prescott for a 13-yard loss before (Cornerback) K’Waun Williams (52 TKL, 5 TFL, 2 QBH, 1.0 SK, 1 FF, 1 INT, 4 PD) intercepted the Quarterback on the next play, setting up (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Deebo Samuel (77 REC, 1,405 YDS, 18.2 Y/R 6 TD) with a 26-yard touchdown run moments later to make it 23-7 late in the third quarter. After trading punts once more, the ‘Boys put together an 11-play, 37-yard drive only to settle for a field goal but were handed a lifeline in the form of an inexplicable interception thrown by (Veteran Quarterback) Jimmy Garoppolo (68.3%, 3,810 YDS, 7.6 NY/A, 20 TD, 12 INT, 52.6 QBR), which sailed over his intended target. Dallas quickly capitalized on the turn of events, as Prescott scrambled five yards into the end zone to cut the deficit to six points with eight minutes left to play. The 49ers would then bleed 5:20 off the clock but were still forced to punt the ball away, though the Cowboys couldn’t do much with it, turning it over on downs on a 4th & 11 at midfield. Then, Samuel would appear to pick up a crucial first down at Dallas’ 37-yard line with 1:21 left on the clock, though the spot of the football was overturned, setting up a 4th & 1. Unfortunately, (All-Pro Left Tackle) Trent Williams was flagged for a false start, forcing yet another punt and granting the hosts an opportunity to win it with thirty-two seconds left and no timeouts from their own 20-yard line. Prescott franticly piloted them to midfield, but on a 2nd &1 scrambled up the middle for seventeen yards for the first down though was unable to get the ball back into the referee’s hands so that it could be properly spotted and spiked to stop the clock, ending the affair in controversy as fans were seen hurling garbage at the officiating crew. Though the bulk of their damage was done in the first half, the Niners ended the evening with 341 total yards, including 169 via the run, allowing them to possess the football for a commanding 33:59. Mitchell and Samuel rushed for ninety-six and seventy-two yards respectively, with the latter also hauling in three passes for thirty-eight yards, while Garoppolo completed 16-of-25 passes for just 172 yards and that aforementioned interception. However, it was the defense that made the biggest impression last Sunday, as (Defensive Coordinator) DeMeco Ryans’ troops relegated the NFL’s highest-scoring/top-ranked offense to just seventeen points and 307 total yards. They relentlessly pressured Prescott throughout the contest, with a whopping SIXTEEN pressures along with FOURTEEN hits and five sacks for a loss of forty yards, while also permitting just seventy-seven rushing yards on seventeen carries. Of course, all anyone wanted to talk about after the game was the failure to spike the ball before time expired, though the fact that Dallas was flagged a ridiculous FOURTEEN times also commanded a good deal of the headlines. The two sides accounted for twenty-three penalties on the day, though it was no surprise that the league’s most penalized team was once again ultimately done in by their own mistakes. And now it’s on to Lambeau Field, where the Niners will face the Packers, a franchise that they have become intimately familiar with in recent years; these teams have met five times in the last four seasons alone, including once in the playoffs, a 37-20 triumph by the 49ers in the 2020 NFC Championship Game. They also met back on September 26th, a primetime meeting at Levi’s Stadium in which the hosts’ rally fell short in a 30-28 affair, as Shanahan’s offense was limited to a season-low 298 total yards, including just sixty-seven rushing yards on twenty-one carries. With that said, this is a completely different attack than the one that took the field back in Week Three, with no player embodying their transition more so than Samuel, who over the last eight games of the regular season has reeled in twenty-eight receptions for 523 yards and two scores, while becoming a much more pronounced part of the rushing attack with another 343 yards and seven touchdowns on fifty-three carries. Altogether, the newly minted Pro-Bowler has accounted for a whopping 1,794 yards from scrimmage and fifteen total touchdowns, averaging an explosive 13.0 yards per touch. He will be needed in a major way tonight, for his Quarterback enters this encounter with a number of injuries that could swing this matchup in a myriad of directions. Already playing with a sprained ligament in his right thumb that clearly affected him against Dallas, Garoppolo also suffered a sprain to his right throwing shoulder last weekend to boot. Shanahan stated earlier this week that he’s been able to perform in practice and is expected to start tonight, though it will be anyone’s guess as to how effective the 30-year-old will be. However, there are few coaches that have proven more adept at both crafting and executing a successful gameplan in spite of his Quarterback than Shanahan has, with San Fran frequently able to overcome the veteran passer’s limitations. On the other hand, Garoppolo has performed rather well in three career meetings with Green Bay, winning two encounters while completing an efficient 66.1% of his passes for an average of 229.0 yards on a healthy 9.22 net yards per attempt with four touchdowns and two turnovers. When they faced off back in late September, Jimmy G totaled 257 yards, two touchdowns and an interception on 25-of-40 passing, though was sacked four times for a loss of twenty-six yards. Make no mistake, this is an absolutely CRUCIAL game for Garoppolo, who could very well be playing his last for the 49ers, after the franchsie traded up to draft his successor in last Spring’s NFL Draft, choosing Trey Lance (57.7%, 603 YDS, 7.84 NY/A, 5 TD, 2 INT, 33.6 QBR) with the third overall pick. While Shanahan has ultimately relented in benching the veteran in favor of furthering the rookie’s development, Garoppolo’s long-term future in Northern California remains murky at best, though another lengthy postseason run will force his coach and (General Manager) John Lynch into some very difficult decisions.
Meanwhile, for the second consecutive postseason the Packers (13-4, 1st in NFC North) find themselves enjoying the luxury of a first-round bye granted to the no. one overall seed, and as a result come into this encounter with the Niners about as healthy as they’ve been in quite a while. Though you wouldn’t notice it given his level of play over the second half of the campaign, (three-time MVP) Aaron Rodgers (68.9%, 4,115 YDS, 7.00 NY/A, 37 TD, 4 INT, 68.9 QBR) has been dealing with a broken right pinky toe for roughly two months now, though reports out of Green Bay indicate that the 38-year-old has been in much less pain as the season came to its conclusion. Like we said, you couldn’t tell by how he’s played, for since undressing his foot and showing the world what his toe looked like following a 17-0 win over the Seahawks back on November 14th, the reigning MVP has called forth a full-blown assault on the NFL; over the final seven games of the regular season, Rodgers has completed 72.0% of his passes for 275.5 yards on a healthy 7.91 net yards per attempt with TWENTY touchdowns and ZERO turnovers, leading his team to a 5-2 record down the stretch. And now it looks like reinforcements are on the way, as (Veteran Tackle) David Bakhtiari is good to go following his first start of the campaign in the season finale after missing the first sixteen games having undergone multiple surgeries on his left knee. Furthermore, (Receiver) Randall Cobb (28 REC, 375 YDS, 13.4 Y/R, 5 TD), (Cornerback) Jaire Alexander (13 TKL, 1 INT, 3 PD) and (Edge-Rushers) Za’Darius Smith (1 TKL) and Whitney Mercilus (5 TKL, 1 TFL, 2 QBH, 1.0 SK) have both been designated to return from lengthy stays on Injured Reserve, bolstering a pass defense that ranked tenth in yards allowed (219.1) and fifth in net yards relinquished (5.8). And then there is (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Aaron Jones (171 CAR, 799 YDS, 4.7 Y/A, 4 TD), who sat out their Week Eighteen clash with the Lions with a bulky knee that had limited him throughout the second half of the schedule: after topping 1,000 yards in each of the past two seasons, the 27-year-old managed just 799 yards and four touchdowns on 4.7 yards per carry in 2021, though 336 yards and just one of those scores came after the midway point. Credit (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur and (Offensive Coordinator) Nathaniel Hackett for developing a physical run game in the form of (Sophomore Tailback) A.J. Dillon (187 CAR, 803 YDS, 4.3 Y/A, 5 TD), who led the team with 803 yards and five touchdowns on 4.3 yards per carry. At 6′-0″ 247 lbs, Dillon’s punishing running style is a perfect complement to Jones, granting LaFleur & Co a thunder & lightning or smash & dash tandem out of the backfield that has become more prominent as the temperature has continued to drop in Eastern Wisconsin. Their emergence has also allowed the opportunity for play action, which is something that LaFleur has longed to incorporate into this offense with Rodgers, who in turn has enjoyed the simplification that those plays afford him; when utilizing play action, Rodgers has completed 72.9% of his attempts for 7.03 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns and no interception en route to posting a passer rating of 118.8, which is 8.6 points higher than when running all plays other than play action. And speaking of the veteran Quarterback, tonight’s encounter with San Francisco will serve as the latest chapter against one of his most persistent foes. By now, we all know the story of Rodgers, who back in 2005 was passed over by twenty-three teams, including his hometown 49ers, who held the no. one overall pick in the Draft that year. After spending the first three years of his career behind (Hall of Famer) Brett Favre, Rodgers would go on to author one of the greatest careers of any Quarterback in NFL history, posting a 139-66-1 record (.674) with 55,360 passing yards (10th Overall) and 449 touchdowns (5th Overall), including career passer rating of 104.5 (2nd Overall), en route to being selected to ten Pro-Bowls, four All-Pro teams, and earning three Most Valuable Player awards, and very well may claim his fourth in a few weeks. Furthermore, he’s led the Packers to eleven playoff appearances and eight NFC North titles since 2008, including five trips to the NFC Championship Game, along with the franchise’s fourth Lombardi trophy in Super Bowl XLV. He’s faced the Niners on twelve occasions accumulating a 7-5 record, completing 67.3% of his passes for an average of 279.7 yards on 7.12 net yards per attempt, with twenty-five touchdowns opposed to five interceptions. However, San Fran has dealt him some of his most crushing defeats, including three in the playoffs; the first time they met back in 2013, he and the Packers were utterly embarrassed in a 45-31 shootout in which Rodgers & Co were gashed for an NFL record 323 rushing yards in the Divisional Round, followed a year later by a frigid 23-20 affair at Lambeau Field that featured a walk-off field goal from the visiting side. And then there was the 2020 NFC Championship Game from Levi’s Stadium where the hosts manhandled Green Bay in a 37-20 drubbing, outscoring them 27-0 in the first half and rushing for 285 yards when it was all said and done. He has though bested his childhood team in each of their last two meetings, including that aforementioned 30-28 affair back in late September. This game was a tale of two halves as the Packers dominated the first half, outscoring the Niners 17-7 at halftime and outgaining them 260-89 heading into intermission. However, San Francisco’s run game started to get going in the second half, opening the third quarter with a 13-play, 83-yard drive culminating in a touchdown that chewed up half of the period, while serving as the first of three touchdown drives over the final thirty minutes of play. After punting on their first possession of period, the visitors would strike back with a 10-play, 86-yard drive capped by a 12-yard toss from Rodgers to (Receiver) Marquez Valdes-Scantling (26 REC, 430 YDS, 16.5 Y/R, 3 TD) to make it 24-14 in the early stages of the final stanza. However, after the aforementioned Garoppolo marched the hosts seventy-five yards downfield in eight plays to take a 28-27 lead with just thirty-seven seconds left, all appeared lost for the Packers, who trailed for the first time in the contest. Fortunately for all of the cheese-heads out there, thirty-seven seconds was more than enough time for Rodgers to work his magic; starting from his own 25-yard line, No. 12 hit (All-Pro Wideout) Davante Adams (123 REC, 1,553 YDS, 12.6 Y/R, 11 TD) for a 25-yard strike deep down the middle of the field, and after spiking the football found Adams once again two plays later on a 17-yard pass deep down the left hashmark, stopping the clock once more with a spike at the 33-yard line. From there, (Veteran Kicker) Mason Crosby stepped up and calmly drilled the 51-yard field goal to win the game. In the end, Green Bay amassed 353 total yards, rushing for 100 on twenty-five attempts, with Rodgers completing 23-of-33 passes for 261 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Niners struggled to pressure him throughout the night, logging just four pressures, two hits, and a sack, as the reigning MVP found Adams for a dozen receptions on eighteen targets for 132 yards and a touchdown. It was an intriguing sliding door moment for all parties involved, for during a tenuous offseason in which he had demanded to be traded, one of the teams angling for Rodgers services was none other than the 49ers, who ironically could have had him so many years ago. While talks about his future away from Green Bay have certainly quieted over the past few months, there is certainly the possibility that tonight’s game could be the last he every plays for the Packers, who with a win will advance to their third consecutive NFC Title Game. Get your popcorn ready, folks, this one should be entertaining…