3:00 PM EST, NBC – Line: Buccaneers -3, Over/Under: 48
With half of the Divisional Round in the books, the other half kicks off today where the 2020 campaign ended in Tampa, as the reigning Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers host the Los Angeles Rams in a star-studded matchup from Raymond-James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Before we get to the Lombardi holders, you can absolutely make the argument that the team in this particular matchup carrying the vast majority of expectations is the Rams (12-5, 1st in NFC West), who have continued to liquidate their draft cache in exchange for star talent all in the pursuit of bringing the franchise its first Super Bowl Championship since moving to the City of Angels five years ago and their first overall since the turn of the century. Indeed, (Head Coach) Sean McVay and (General Manager) Les Snead have gone ALL-IN on capturing that elusive Lombardi trophy this season, acquiring a triumvirate of Pro-Bowlers throughout the calendar year. First, they shipped (former Quarterback) Jared Goff out of town (along with a pair of first round picks) to Detroit in exchange for (Veteran Quarterback) Matthew Stafford (67.2%, 4,886 YDS, 7.36 NY/A, 41 TD, 17 INT, 63.5 QBR), with the hopes that the talented 33-year-old could in fact get them over the hump. Following their previous postseason run in which McVay opted to bench a healthy Goff in favor of a journeyman from the CFL, the writing was on the wall for the former no. one overall pick, who clearly fell out of favor with the coaching staff. Despite being six years older and having never won a playoff game (in three starts), Stafford was viewed as a considerable upgrade, and for all intents and purposes has delivered in his first season in Los Angeles; the veteran ranked second in the NFL in passing touchdowns (41) and third in passing yards (4,886), matching a franchise record with the former and breaking another with the latter. Furthermore, he developed an instant rapport with his supporting cast, particularly (All-Pro Receiver) Cooper Kupp (145 REC, 1,947 YDS, 13.4 Y/R, 16 TD), who finished the campaign with a rare Receiving Triple Crown leading the league in catches (145), receiving yards (1,947), and touchdown receptions (16). Joining Stafford in Southern California midway through the season were a pair of former All-Pros, (Edge-Rusher) Von Miller (31 TKL, 12 TFL, 9 QBH, 5.0 SK, 1 FF, 1 PD) and (Wideout) Odell Beckham Jr. (27 REC, 305 YDS, 11.3 Y/R, 5 TD), with both players eventually developing into key contributors. Miller cost McVay and Snead second and third round picks in this Spring’s NFL Draft, with the 8-time Pro-Bowler heating up with eight Quarterback hits, five sacks, and a forced fumble over the final four games of the regular season. As for Beckham, he arrived as a free agent following his release from the Browns, and after a slow start has really begun to settle into his role within the Rams’ system, reeling in all five of his touchdowns on the season after his move westward. Though they ended the schedule with a letdown in a 27-24 overtime loss to bitter rival, San Francisco, McVay’s troops had previously strung together five consecutive victories and thanks to an Arizona loss in their season finale, earned LA their first NFC West title in three years. That outcome in Week Eighteen also set up a rubber match between the Rams and Cardinals in last weekend’s Wild Card Round, and after each team managed to win on the other’s home field, there would no such thing as a repeat performance for the birds, who were utterly embarrassed in a 34-11 beatdown at SoFi Stadium. Simply put, this one was NEVER close, folks, as the hosts dominated the first half of play with twenty-one unanswered points, and thoroughly confounded (Arizona Quarterback) Kyler Murray in the process; making his first postseason start, the young playmaker was relegated to a mere thirteen yards on a miserable 6-of-17 passing, while suffering a pair of sacks and interceptions, including an inexcusable underhanded attempt to get rid of the ball while being sacked in his own end zone, which was promptly picked off at the 3-yard line and returned for a touchdown by (young Cornerback) David Long (40 TKL, 1 INT, 4 PD). Credit (Defensive Coordinator) Raheem Morris’ unit for dismantling what had been a high-powered attack in their previous two meetings, for the visitors became the first side since 1980 to begin a postseason affair with eight consecutive drives ending in a punt or turnover. Meanwhile, after punting on their first possession, Stafford and the offense went on to build momentum with back-to-back touchdown drives, the first traveling fifty-two yards in ten plays and the latter encompassing sixty-eight yards in nine plays, with the gunslinger hitting the aforementioned Beckham in the back of the end zone for a 4-yard strike before calling his own number on the goal line to take a 14-0 advantage. Keeping their foot on the Cardinals’ necks coming out of intermission, Los Angeles took their first possession of the second half seventy-five yards in eight plays, as Stafford continued to fire on cylinders, connecting with Kupp to extend their lead to 28-0, effectively ending the affair altogether. In the end, the Rams outgained the Cards 375-183, outrushed them 140-61, and held possession of the football for a commanding 35:46. Earning his first postseason victory, Stafford completed an efficient 13-of-17 passes for 202 yards and two touchdowns with zero turnovers, while the backfield tandem of (Tailbacks) Sony Michel (208 CAR, 845 YDS, 4.1 Y/A, 4 TD) and Cam Akers (5 CAR, 3 YDS, 0.6 Y/A, 0 TD) combined for 113 yards on thirty attempts, as the latter impressed mightily in his return from an Achilles injury that sidelined him for the virtually the entire regular season. The defense dominated this matchup, shutting out the visiting side on third down (0-of-9) and holding Murray to a dismal 19-of-34 passing for 137 yards and those two interceptions, pressuring him THIRTEEN times, hitting him on five occasions, and sacking him twice, all the while containing him within the pocket to the tune of six rushing yards on two carries. And if THIS is the version of the Rams that we can expect in today’s matchup against the Buccaneers, then we should be in for quite a treat, for Los Angeles has bested Tampa in each of their past two meetings, including a 34-24 rout back in late September. After a quiet first quarter of play, the two sides combined for FORTY-EIGHT points in the second and third periods alone, with McVay’s outfit leading 31-14 at one point before the visitors made it look more respectable in the end. Both Quarterbacks went off as Stafford totaled 343 yards and four touchdowns on 27-of-38 passing while (Bucs’ Quarterback) Tom Brady (more on him shortly) carried the attack with 432 yards and a score on 41-of-55 passing. The difference here was that despite neither team expressing much interest in running the football, Tampa could muster only a scant thirty-five yards on thirteen carries in comparison to seventy-six yards on twenty-four attempts for the home side, who as a result had little issues moving the chains, converting 10-of-15 third downs opposed to 6-of-13 for the visiting side. Granted, much has changed since that encounter, with Miller and Beckham along with a revitalized Akers likely to have something to say about this one. After all, Miller is rather familiar with Brady, whom he has sacked 7.5 times and hit on a total of seventeen occasions in nine career meetings, including the playoffs. On the injury front, the Rams will be without the services of (Veteran Left Tackle) Andrew Whitworth and (Safety) Taylor Rapp (94 TKL, 2 TFL, 3 QBH, 1.5 SK, 1 FR, 4 INT, 5 PD), with the former dealing with a bulky knee and the latter not yet cleared to return from a concussion suffered in the season finale. Los Angeles is particularly thin at the Safety position, leading to the surprising return of Eric Weddle, who had spent the previous two years in retirement.
Meanwhile, the Rams aren’t the only team to cruise into the second round of the postseason as the Buccaneers (13-4, 1st in NFC South) also handled their business with frightening ease, hammering the upstart Eagles in a 31-15 affair last Sunday. Stop us if you’ve heard this one before, folks, but this one was NEVER close, as Tampa scored the first thirty-one points of the afternoon before Philadelphia could offer a pair of inconsequential scores in the fourth quarter. (Head Coach) Bruce Arians’ troops set the tone early in taking the opening possession of the contest seventy-five yards downfield in twelve plays, as (Veteran Tailback) Giovani Bernard (8 CAR, 58 YDS 7.3 Y/A, 0 TD) barreled two yards into the end zone for the opening score. After a quick three and out on their next possession, the Bucs would march seventy yards downfield in ten plays, as another Tailback, Ke’Shawn Vaughn (36 CAR, 108 YDS, 5.0 Y/A, 2 TD) broke the plane on a short scamper, followed by an 11-play, 53-yard drive culminating in a (Kicker) Ryan Succop 34-yard field goal to take a commanding 17-0 lead. From there, the hosts would take their foot off the gas until later in the third quarter where (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Tom Brady (67.5%, 5,316 YDS, 6.98 NY/A, 43 TD, 12 INT, 68.4 QBR) engineered a quick 5-play, 48-yard drive aided by a muffed punt recovery at midfield, with the reigning Super Bowl MVP hitting longtime running mate (Tight End) Rob Gronkowski (55 REC, 802 YDS, 14.6 Y/R, 6 TD) for a 2-yard score. Then just over two minutes later, (Eagles’ Quarterback) Jaeln Hurts was intercepted at midfield by (Pro-Bowl Linebacker) Shaquil Barrett (51 TKL, 9 TFL, 22 QBH, 10.0 SK, 3 FF, 2 FR, 1 INT, 4 PD) and returned seventeen yards, teeing up Brady for a 36-yard bomb to (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Mike Evans (74 REC, 1,035 YDS, 14.0 Y/R, 14 TD) on the very next play. In the end, the Buccaneers may have only outgained the Eagles by ten yards, but they completely owned the visitors throughout the affair in amassing twenty-three first downs to fourteen, winning the turnover battle 3-0, and owning possession of the football for a commanding 33:03. (Defensive Coordinator) Todd Bowles’ charges turned in another masterclass, relegating Philly to zero points on their first ten drives in which they could accumulate just 154 total yards, punting on six occasions and turning it over thrice. Hurts could complete only 23-of-43 passes for 258 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, while being pressured SIXTEEN times, hit on ten occasions, and sacked twice, while being largely contained in the run game with thirty-nine yards on eight attempts. All season long, Tampa had been one of the staunchest defenses against the run, and they were having none of it against the Eagles’ top-ranked rushing attack, with that massive defensive front holding them below 100 yards for just the third time all year and the first time since way back in Week Five. Of course, another constant for the Bucs has been Brady, who after completing 29-of-37 attempts for 271 yards and a pair of touchdowns last weekend continues to defy the laws of physics by turning in yet another elite level campaign despite turning 44-years old shortly before the beginning of the season. You would think that Arians and (Offensive Coordinator) Byron Leftwich would be mindful of their Quarterback’s age and take it easy with a more conservative game plan, but that simply hasn’t been the case in this, his TWENTY-SECOND season in the National Football League; Brady led all passers in both passing attempts (719), completions (485), and touchdowns (43), along with a personal-best 5,316 yards, all the while taking just twenty-two sacks which parlays into the lowest sack percentage in the NFL (3.0%). And that’s been the secret to his success at this point: no Quarterback likes to be pressured, particularly one of his age and experience, and the fact that he was dropped at a lower rate than any of his contemporaries despite throwing the football more than any of them is a testament to the protection that he’s received from his Offensive Line, which has been one of the league’s most underrated units for a few years now. However, as the competition becomes tougher with each passing round of the postseason, it will be interesting to see if and when the loss of particular weapons will come into play. Coming into Super Bowl LV, Brady’s supporting cast was absolutely LOADED, particularly a Receiving Corps that featured the likes of Evans and Gronkowski alongside Antonio Brown (42 REC, 545 YDS, 13.0 Y/R, 4 TD), Chris Godwin (98 REC, 1,013 YDS, 11.3 Y/R, 5 TD), Scottie Miller (5 REC, 38 YDS, 7.6 Y/R, 0 TD), and Cameron Brate (30 ERC, 245 YDS, 8.2 Y/R, 4 TD). However, Godwin tore his ACL a month ago, while the ever-mercurial Brown was dismissed from the team altogether by Arians during a bizarre sequence of events midway through a 28-24 rally over the Jets two weeks later. That’s a combined 140 catches, 1,648 yards, and nine touchdowns of firepower that Tampa is without, while the backfield has also seen its share of absences as (Tailbacks) Leonard Fournette (180 CAR, 812 YDS, 4.5 Y/A, 8 TD) and Ronald Jones (101 CAR, 428 YDS, 4.2 Y/A, 4 TD) hurry to return from Injured Reserve. Fournette’s emergence in the playoffs a year ago helped spark their run to the Super Bowl, and without him Brady finds himself carrying the attack almost out of necessity. Furthermore, that aforementioned Offensive Line is dealing with issues of its own, with (Center) Ryan Jensen (Shoulder) and Tristan Wirfs (Ankle) both slowed with injuries of their own and are listed as Questionable for today’s affair. Needless to say, this isn’t necessarily the ideal way to come into a matchup with the Rams, who have proven to have had their number in recent meetings. Despite the Offensive Line’s size, Los Angeles’ smaller, quicker defensive front has given them fits in their last two encounters, particularly because Brady hasn’t had the luxury of stepping up in the pocket as it’s frequently being collapsed by (three-time Defensive Player of the Year) Aaron Donald (84 TKL, 19 TFL, 25 QBH, 12.5 SK, 4 FF, 4 PD). In his last three matchups against the All-Pro Defensive Tackle, Brady has won just one of them, which just so happened to be a 13-3 triumph over Donald & Co. back in Super Bowl LIII as a member of the Patriots. However, his progress in that one was glacial at best, completing 21-of-35 passes for 262 yards with an interception and a fumble, while being pressured on seven occasions and hit three times, including one sack. In his last three affairs with LA, Brady has completed 63.7% of his passes for 303.3 yards on 6.32 net yards per attempt, with as many interceptions as touchdowns (3), all the while suffering a total of twenty-four pressures, eleven hits, and five sacks along with a pair of fumbles. And it’s with that said that the scene is set at Raymond-James: will Brady lead the shorthanded Buccaneers to a second consecutive NFC Championship Game against the star power of the Rams, who handled them convincingly nearly four months ago? A winner of nine consecutive Divisional Round games dating back to 2011, we wouldn’t bet against the GOAT, but then again, all good things must come to an end, right?