3:00 PM EST, CBS – Line: Chiefs -7, Over/Under: 54.5
After a weekend that is annually referred to as the most entertaining in the National Football League managed to exceed expectations, we’re down to the final four teams as the upstart Cincinnati Bengals prepare for a rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs, though the stakes are much greater this time around in this afternoon’s AFC Championship from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. It’s rare that a team manages to ascend so rapidly in such a truncated period of time, but that is precisely what the Bengals (10-7, 1st in AFC North) have done this season, as they look to become only the third team in NFL history to go from owning the worst record in the league to the Super Bowl in a matter of just two years. That’s right, folks, this once-floundering franchise cratered to a 2-14 finish back in 2019, and through a combination of good fortune in the Draft coupled with shrewd moves in Free Agency and a wealth of development by (Head Coach) Zac Taylor and his coaching staff, has seen Cincinnati grow by leaps and bounds in the span of just twenty-four months. Make no mistake, Taylor entered this season on the hotseat after mustering a miserable 6-25-1 record in his first two years on the job, though the patience of the Brown Family has certainly paid off handsomely as the 38-year-old has overseen a campaign in which three decades of ineptitude have been washed away. After winning their first AFC North title in six years, the Bengals snapped the longest playoff losing streak in the NFL, earning their first postseason victory since January 6th of 1991 as they toppled the Raiders in a 26-19 triumph at Paul Brown Stadium on Wild Card Weekend. Rather than simply be content with themselves, this young group continued to build momentum in storming into Nashville and upsetting the top-seeded Titans in a 19-16 affair last Saturday afternoon. For the second consecutive contest, Taylor’s troops won in tough, ugly fashion, relying on their defense and some timely plays from their young playmakers, including their prolific Rookie Kicker, Evan McPherson to advance. After intercepting (Titans Quarterback) Ryan Tannehill on the opening drive of the game, the visitors settled for a McPherson field goal to open their ledger, with the rookie nailing another following a series of punts from both teams. Cincinnati would add another three to retake the lead before halftime after Tennessee finally got on the board with a 9-play, 84-yard drive culminating in a short touchdown jaunt from (two-time rushing champion) Derrick Henry, who was making his long-awaited return from a broken foot suffered ten weeks ago. The second half kicked off with the Bengals setting the tone with a 9-play drive of their own, traveling sixty-five yards downfield, with (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Joe Mixon (292 CAR, 1,205 YDS, 4.1 Y/A, 13 TD) taking a 16-yard sprint up the middle of the field for the score. Then on the ensuing possession, Tannehill was picked yet again, as (Veteran Nickelback) Mike Hilton (66 TKL, 8 TFL, 2 QBH, 1 FF, 2 INT, 5 PD, 1 TD) made a helluva play in the end zone, returning it nineteen yards and thwarting the home side once more. Eventually, the Titans would climb back into the contest, with a pair of field goals bookending an interception of (Bengals Quarterback) Joe Burrow (70.4%, 4,611 YDS, 7.43 NY/A, 34 TD, 14 INT, 54.4 QBR) but come the fourth quarter it was the Bengals who rose to the occasion. With the game seeming destined for overtime, Tannehill was picked off again, this time at his own 40-yard line by (Linebacker) Logan Wilson (100 TKL, 5 TFL, 1 QBH, 1.0 SK, 1 FF, 4 INT, 4 PD), giving Burrow & Co the ball with just twenty seconds left to play. The former no. one overall pick dropped back and found (Rookie Wideout) Ja’Marr Chase (81 REC, 1,455 YDS, 18.0 Y/R, 13 TD) for a crucial 19-yard completion setting up McPherson for a walk-off 52-yard kick that sailed dead center through the uprights. In the end, it was McPherson’s eleventh field goal of fifty or more yards, the most of any kicker in the NFL this season, uplifting an offense that could muster just 345 total yards on seventeen first downs, including sixty-five of the rushing variety on eighteen attempts. Burrow was sacked a staggering NINE times for a loss of sixty-eight yards, setting an NFL record in the playoffs, but remained cool, calm, and collective, completing 28-of-37 passes for 348 yards and that interception, connecting with Chase on five occasions for 109 yards, while (fellow Receiver) Tee Higgins (74 REC, 1,091 YDS, 14.7 Y/R, 6 TD) hauled in seven receptions for ninety-six yards. Defensively, (Defensive Coordinator) Lou Anarumo’s troops bottled up the aforementioned Henry for sixty-two yards on twenty attempts, while stumping Tannehill to the tune of 220 yards, a touchdown and those three interceptions on 15-of-24 passing. Following a breakout campaign in which he led the team in tackles (100) and interceptions (4), Wilson authored the most impressive performance of his young career, leading the visiting side with eight tackles and the last of that triumvirate of interceptions, while also making an absolutely crucial stop of Henry behind the line of scrimmage on a 4th & 1 midway through the final stanza with the hosts threatening at the 35-yard line. And now it’s on to Kansas City, where they should be very confident in their ability to dethrone the two-time reigning AFC Champions, for after all they’re the only side to have beaten them in the last three months. When they crossed paths back on January 2nd at Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati matched Kansas City blow for blow throughout a thoroughly entertaining affair, besting them 34-31 when it was all said and done. The hosts amassed 475 total yards of offense, with Burrow accounting for 446 of that figure along with four touchdowns on a surgical 30-of-39 passing, while Chase set a rookie single game record with eleven receptions, 266 yards, and three scores on a dozen targets. Reuniting the two collegiate teammates in Southern Ohio was a stroke of genius from Taylor and (Lead Scout) Duke Tobin, with that tandem providing a wealth of big plays throughout the campaign; EIGHT of Chase’s thirteen touchdowns have consisted of thirty or more yards, including two in that meeting with the Chiefs, the first traveling seventy-two yards and the last sixty-nine. Given how last weekend’s games played out, it will likely take a similar performance for Cincy to shock the sporting world and advance to Super Bowl LVI, but in order to do so there are two things that they MUST clean up. Frist and foremost, they simply have to protect Burrow better than they have; after his rookie venture ended prematurely with multiple torn ligaments in his knee, the sophomore sensation was sacked an NFL-high FIFTY-ONE times in 2021, along with another ELEVEN in the playoffs thus far. While he certainly has a habit of holding onto the football in an attempt to find targets downfield, his Offensive Line has been one of the league’s worst, regularly exposing the young Quarterback to pressure. This also goes hand in hand with their other problem: as explosive as they can be, the Bengals have developed a troubling habit of bogging down in the red zone and settling for field goals of late, scoring just two touchdowns in their two postseason outings to this point. Cincinnati was middling in the red zone during the season, scoring a touchdown on just 59.6% of their opportunities (16th Overall), but against Las Vegas and Tennessee struggled to even get to that particular part of the field, running a total of sixteen plays in the red zone in both games combined. McPherson has quite the leg, going 8-of-8 in these playoffs, but in order to beat the Chiefs it will take much more than that. With all that said, despite their disappointing postseason history, the AFC Championship has been very kind to the Bengals, who have never lost in this round of the playoffs, proving victorious in each of their two previous trips (1982, 1989). Will history repeat itself? The oddsmakers don’t think so, but at this point we wouldn’t bet against Burrow & Co.
Meanwhile, the last of the NFL’s quartet of Divisional Round matchups proved to be the greatest of all, as the Chiefs (12-5, 1st in AFC West) rallied to advance to their fourth consecutive AFC Championship Game with a thrilling 42-36 triumph over the Bills. Crossing paths for the fourth time in two years, and the second time since last year’s AFC Championship Game, the fourth installment of this growing rivalry did NOT disappoint. After Buffalo took the opening possession seventy-one yards downfield in thirteen plays, Kansas City struck back with a lengthy drive of their own, marching seventy-four yards in eleven plays as (All-Pro Quarterback) Patrick Mahomes (66.3%, 4,839 YDS, 6.84 NY/A, 37 TD, 13 INT, 62.7 QBR) scrambled eight yards up the left side of the field into the end zone to tie the affair at 7-7. Following a series of punts from both sides, the hosts went back to work with a 12-play, 86-yard possession resulting in a short touchdown toss from Mahomes to (young Wideout) Byron Pringle (42 REC, 568 YDS, 13.5 Y/R, 5 TD) to take the lead. The visitors would respond with a touchdown of their own, before (Head Coach) Andy Reid’s charges missed an opportunity to head into halftime with the advantage, as (Kicker) Harrison Butker’s 50-yard field goal attempt was off the mark. At that point, both teams had employed a similar game plan in constructing long, time-consuming drives in an attempt to keep their opponent’s explosive offense on the sidelines. However, business would pick up in the second half, with fireworks on full display. After settling for a Butker field goal following a 13-play drive that lasted nearly eight minutes, the Chiefs turned on the jets and rolled sixty-one yards downfield in just five plays as (versatile Receiver) Mecole Hardman (67 CH, 739 YDS, 11.0 Y/T, 2 TD) took a reverse to the left end of the field twenty-five yards to the house. Butker would then miss the extra point, and two plays later (Bills Quarterback) Josh Allen launched a 75-yard bomb to cut the deficit to two points. Following another Butker field goal, Buffalo moved back in front with another scoring strike from Allen, who also converted the ensuing two-point conversion to make it 29-26 with just 1:54 left to play. And this is where things got crazy, folks, for in just fifty-two seconds, Mahomes needed only two completions to restore their advantage, finding (All-Pro Wideout) Tyreek Hill (111 REC, 1,239 YDS, 11.2 Y/R, 9 TD) for a stunning 64-yard touchdown. Not to be outdone, Allen would go seventy-five yards in just forty-nine seconds, connecting with Gabriel Davis for a fourth touchdown to overtake Kansas City one more time, leaving only thirteen seconds on the clock. Unfortunately, that proved to be remarkably TOO MUCH time for Mahomes & Co, with the 2018 MVP hitting Hill for a 19-yard completion, followed by 25-yard bomb to (All-Pro Tight End) Travis Kelce (92 REC, 1,125 YDS, 12.2 Y/R, 9 TD) before spiking the football at Buffalo’s 31-yard line, setting up Butker for the game-tying 49-yard field goal, sending the contest into overtime. The home side would then win the coin toss and elect to receive possession, which they used to march seventy-five yards downfield in eight plays, culminating in an 8-yard score to Kelce on the right boundary of the end zone, causing the faithful at Arrowhead to erupt in jubilation. In the end, the Chiefs amassed a staggering 552 yards of total offense, converting 8-of-13 third downs and one very important fourth down, en route to possessing the football for a commanding 36:38. Mahomes was nothing short of dominant in completing 33-of-44 passes for 378 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for another sixty-nine yards and a score, extending his stellar postseason portfolio to 8-2 as Kansas City becomes the first team in NFL history to host four consecutive Conference Championship Games. Hill and Kelce combined for nineteen catches, 246 yards and a touchdown apiece, while the versatile Jerick McKinnon (25 TCH, 169 YDS, 6.8 Y/T, 1 TD) continued to impress in his return to the lineup, with seventy-eight yards on fifteen touches. Last Sunday’s triumph was yet another sign of just how far Reid’s troops have come since their ignominious start to the campaign; the Chiefs were a dismal 3-4 back in late October thanks to a league worst SEVENTEEN turnovers and a defense that was routinely barbequed on a weekly basis, allowing 29.0 points on 404.6 total yards over that span. However, they would indeed flip the proverbial switch in winning nine of their final ten outings, as Mahomes & Co stopped shooting themselves in the foot (8 turnovers), while their cohorts on the opposite side of the football performed a complete about face in relinquishing a scant 12.8 points on a much more respectable 325.2 total yards, forcing TWENTY-ONE turnovers with eighteen sacks, while permitting a third down success rate of just 31.3%. With that said, the lone team to beat them over the last thirteen weeks is coincidentally the same side that they face today, as the Bengals bested them in that aforementioned 34-31 affair less than a month ago. Kansas City started off red-hot in their jaunt into Paul Brown Stadium, following a quick three and out on their opening possession with four consecutive touchdown drives to take a 28-17 lead into halftime. Mahomes met very little resistance in completing 18-of-24 passes for 228 yards and a pair of touchdowns, including a 29-yard strike to (unheralded Wideout) Demarcus Robinson (25 REC, 264 YDS, 10.6 Y/R, 3 TD). Unfortunately, the visitors couldn’t maintain that torrid momentum into the second half, punting on their first two possessions before tying the score with an 11-play, 52-yard drive with 6:04 left to play. The hosts managed to keep them off the field for the majority of the second half, eventually going ahead for good on the strength of a marathon 15-play, 74-yard drive that bled the final six minutes of game time, capping the afternoon with a 20-yard field goal courtesy of the aforementioned McPherson. It was very much a tale of two halves, for after racking up twenty-eight points on 314 total yards in the first, they could muster a meager three points on 112 yards in the second. Furthermore, they only ran twenty-three plays following intermission in comparison to thirty-six in the previous two periods, with Mahomes going 8-of-11 for only thirty-one yards in quarters three and four. However, there were a number of positive takeaways from that encounter that could prove useful in this rematch; the Chiefs rushed for 155 yards on twenty-three carries, their third-highest total of the regular season, which has continued into the playoffs where they’ve amassed 288 yards in two games, including 182 in last weekend’s battle with the Bills. They also proved fully capable of getting heat on the aforementioned Burrow, pressuring him on twelve occasions and sacking him four times. Granted, they also got burned quite a bit on that early January afternoon, and (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo will likely employ some more conservative coverages in an attempt to limit how many times Chase & Co get loose. With a win today, Kansas City will be off to their third consecutive Super Bowl appearance, becoming just the fourth franchise to do so, joining the Miami Dolphins (1971-1973), Buffalo Bills (1990-1993), and New England Patriots (2016-2018) in that distinction. Is the NFL’s latest dynasty set to endure, or will it come to an end at Arrowhead? We can only hope that this one is as entertaining as the one that preceded it.