8:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Bucks -6, Over/Under: 223.5
On the eve of the All-Star Break, MVP frontrunners collide in Milwaukee, as the reigning NBA Champion Bucks host the reconfigured Philadelphia 76ers in a matchup of eastern powerhouses from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. It’s been a week since the Trade Deadline passed and we’re all still waiting to see what the 76ers (34-32, 5th in Eastern Conference) will look like after making by far and away the most seismic deal in acquiring the services of (All-Star Guard) James Harden (22.5 PTS, 41.4% FG, 33.2% 3FG, 86.9% FT, 8.0 REB, 10.2 AST, 1.3 STL, 0.7 BLK, 21.0 PER). All it took to get there was putting the longest running saga in the NBA to rest, dealing wantaway (All-Star Guard) Ben Simmons as the centerpiece of the trade; after suffering an upset to the Hawks in last Summer’s Eastern Semifinals, the former no. one overall pick became the goat for said failure and instigated a lengthy standoff with the organization in which he willingly sat out the first fifty-six games of the regular season following a demand to be traded. This fascinating drama played out for months, as Philadelphia continued to fine him for every game that he missed, equating to roughly $23 million of his $30.5 million salary. While the argument could be made that they missed his services, particularly from a playmaking perspective, the Sixers nonetheless managed to march out to a 32-22 record, planting themselves in the thick of the race for the no. one seed thanks in large part to an MVP campaign courtesy of (All-NBA Center) Joel Embiid (29.3 PTS, 49.1% FG, 36.0% 3FG, 81.3% FT, 11.1 REB, 4.5 AST, 1.0 STL, 1.5 BLK, 31.6 PER). While he was nothing short of dominant last season, the 27-year-old has been even better this year, leading the NBA with a career-high 29.3 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field, including 36.0% from beyond the arc, 11.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.5 blocks. For the second consecutive campaign he has managed to stay largely healthy, putting the foot and knee injuries that plagued him throughout the early stages of his career behind him. With that said, there is always the possibility that the big fella finds himself on the trainer’s table, and for that reason the pressure was squarely on (Lead Executive) Daryl Morey to find him reinforcements. However, the crafty Morey refused to deal Simmons away for even eighty cents on a dollar, resisting a slew of potential deals in an attempt to hold out for the acquisition of a superstar to pair with Embiid, and with less than an hour remaining before the Deadline, hit a grand slam in acquiring the services of Harden. Of course, Morey knew the three-time scoring champion very well from their time together with the Rockets, and once Harden let it be known that he would be in favor of a trade to Philly, while also making it clear that he would leave Brooklyn in Free Agency this coming Summer, the Sixers had all the leverage they needed in order to make the deal. In poaching the 10-time All-Star, Morey parted ways with Simmons, (sharpshooting Guard) Seth Curry, and (backup Center) Andre Drummond along with a number of draft picks, though managed to retain the services of a pair of their younger, more affordable players, such as (defensive dynamo) Matisse Thybulle (5.9 PTS, 50.8% FG, 30.6% 3FG, 71.4% FT, 2.3 REB, 1.1 AST, 1.9 STL, 1.1 BLK, 11.3 PER) and (sparkplug Guard) Tyrese Maxey (17.0 PTS, 47.5% FG, 39.9% 3FG, 86.0% FT, 3.6 REB, 4.7 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.5 BLK, 16.2 PER). Essentially, Philly turned a massive empty roster slot and a pair of supporting cast members into one of the most prolific offensive players that the league has ever seen. Now, there are certainly some concerns to be had with Harden’s arrival to the City of Brotherly Love, namely being his conditioning, which has become in an issue over the last two seasons; at 32-years of age, the bearded one has missed forty-one games over the last eighteen months largely due to hamstring strains, and the 76ers have clearly taken this into account in opting to rest him until after this weekend’s All-Star Break. There are also major financial ramifications here to be discussed. After the trade was completed, Harden apparently missed the deadline to pick up his $47 million player option for next season, which means that he will have to re-sign with the club as a traditional free agent this Summer and depending on the length of his new deal could mean that the Sixers will be on the hook to pay him well into his mid-to-late thirties. Given his aforementioned conditioning struggles, his looming contract could very well be an albatross in the future. And lastly, how will he and Embiid get along on the hardwood? Both have proven to be temperamental in the past, and the last time that Harden was paired with an All-Star Center (I.E. Dwight Howard), their feud ultimately ran the latter out of town. Can they fit together? Absolutely. Could they tear each other apart? That could happen too.
When we last saw the 76ers, they were utterly EMBARRASSED in a lopsided 135-87 defeat at home to the surging Celtics, which turned out to be their largest loss of the campaign. While Boston has certainly been on a roll of late, this one was nothing short of a disappointing showing from a team that fashions itself as one of the true contenders in the East. Simply put, you shouldn’t be trailing by FIFTY-ONE points to a team that you are leading by a pair of games in the standings. Granted, Harden has yet to suit up for the Sixers and they were shorthanded after the trade, but in the end, the effort simply wasn’t there and that had to have driven (Head Coach) Doc Rivers nuts. This affair was never close, as the visitors led 32-22 after the first quarter, 69-42 at halftime, and 101-58 after three frames of play. Offensively, Philadelphia was downright TERRIBLE Tuesday night, shooting a season-low 28.8% from the field, including 8-of-32 from beyond the arc (25.0%), with just seventeen assists. The C’s on the other hand, were on fire throughout the encounter, shooting a blistering 56.1% overall, including a ridiculous 25-of-45 from downtown (55.6%), dishing out twenty-eight dimes opposed to committing just nine turnovers. The hosts were outscored by an outrageous FIFTY-ONE points from three, and if not 33-of-39 shooting from the charity stripe (+15), this game could have been even uglier from Philly’s perspective. Embiid led the team with nineteen points on 3-of-9 shooting (33.3%), though all but six of his total came from the free-throw line (13-of-16), while adding nine rebounds and six assists in just over twenty-six minutes of action. The only other Sixer to finish in double-figures was the aforementioned Maxey, who could muster just eleven points on a dismal 3-of-11 shooting from the field (27.3%), while the rest of the starting lineup accounted for only ten points on 3-of-18 shooting (16.7%). Looking at this glass half-full, the 76ers are only three games out of first place in the wide-open Eastern Conference and looking apathetic when their shorthanded heading into the All-Star Break is far from an omen of things to come. This team will look very different once Rivers works Harden into the rotation, with the potential fireworks that follow likely elevating them higher within the East hierarchy. Unfortunately, there is still one game left before they get to that point, and it just so happens to be against the reigning champions; these teams met back on November 9th, with Milwaukee storming into Wells Fargo Center and escaping with a 118-109 victory in which Embiid was sidelined with a sore knee, leaving Maxey to lead the way with thirty-one points on 12-of-24 shooting (50.0%).
Meanwhile, the East may be as wide-open as it has in quite a while after last week’s Trade Deadline, yet there remains growing sentiment that the Bucks (36-23, 3rd in Eastern Conference) remain the favorites to come out of the field as victors. After winning their first Larry O’Brien trophy in fifty years, there was a feeling that Milwaukee had all the makings of going on a prolonged run and following a slow start to their title defense they have certainly rounded into championship form. Stumbling out of the gates to a 6-8 record was understandable for a team that was clearly fatigued following their run to the Finals (which ended in late July BTW), only for their top three performers, (two-time MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.4 PTS, 54.7% FG, 30.4% 3FG, 72.0% FT, 11.3 REB, 6.0 AST, 0.9 STL, 1.4 BLK, 32.2 PER) along with (All-Stars) Khris Middleton (19.4 PTS, 44.2% FG, 36.4% 3FG, 88.6% FT, 5.5 REB, 5.3 AST, 1.2 STL, 18.3 PER) and Jrue Holiday (18.0 PTS, 50.6% FG, 40.4% 3FG, 76.9% FT, 4.6 REB, 6.7 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.5 BLK, 19.8 PER) to immediately hop on a plane to compete in the Summer Olympics, altogether leading to a second consecutive abridged offseason. As a result, this triumvirate hasn’t enjoyed much time together on the hardwood thus far; Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Holiday have featured together in just twenty-nine of their fifty-nine games and is still just the ninth-most utilized three-man combination that (Head Coach) Mike Budenholzer has relied upon; the trio has logged 467:32 of gametime thus far, with the team +13.6 in points, +.077 in field goal percentage, +4.0 in rebounding, and +2.1 in assists when they are on the court together. Granted, the Bucks are 22-7 when they are all healthy, which has been the case of late, with the three competing in each of their last ten contests, a period in which they’ve gone 6-4. However, while the supporting cast has certainly handled themselves in the absence of their stars, many of their number have begun to succumb to injuries, which meant that Budenholzer and (General Manager) Jon Horst went to work at the Trade Deadline in search of reinforcements. First and foremost, the Bucks needed more size and shooting in the frontcourt after (veteran Center) Brook Lopez (8.0 PTS, 33.3% FG, 50.0% 3FG, 5.0 REB, 1.0 STL, 3.0 BLK, 11.7 PER) underwent back surgery in early December, which was a sentiment that was only made more imperative once (young Forward) Pat Connaughton (10.1 PTS, 46.7% FG, 81.1% FT, 4.4 REB, 1.2 AST, 0.9 STL, 13.6 PER) bit the dust in last week’s Finals rematch with the Suns with a sprained knee. Furthermore, (sparkplug Guard) Grayson Allen (11.5 PTS, 42.5% FG, 39.2% 3FG, 85.7% FT, 3.4 REB, 1.5 AST, 0.8 STL, 13.0 PER) has been limited with a sore hip for a few weeks now, while (veteran Guard) George Hill (7.0 PTS, 43.6% FG, 31.6% 3FG, 96.0% FT, 3.2 REB, 2.5 AST, 0.8 STL, 11.0 PER) has missed each of the last eight outings with a neck strain. Simply put, Budenholzer’s depth has been severely taxed of late, which was very apparent in a blowout loss in Phoenix (131-107) followed by a head scratching rout at home against shorthanded Portland (122-107). In those two contests, the offense could manage just 107.0 points on 44.1% shooting from the field, including a subpar 29.1% from beyond the arc, while being battered on the glass (-9.5), dishing out just 18.0 assists in comparison to committing 13.5 turnovers. Furthermore, they struggled to get stops on the defensive end, yielding a staggering 126.5 points on 50.8% shooting from the floor, including 37.0% from downtown, along with 32.5 assists opposed to 10.5 turnovers. The lack of ball pressure and the decline in three-point shooting are telltale signs of a team that is clearly fatigued, having just returned home for the latter of these affairs following a 4-game road trip. So, what did Milwaukee come up with at the Trade Deadline, you ask? Budenholzer and Horst dealt away (young Swingman) Donte DiVincenzo, who had been struggling to return to form following surgery last Summer, along with (veteran Guard) Rodney Hood and (backup Forward) Semi Ojeleye in a four-time trade with the Raptors, Kings, and Clippers, netting (veteran Forward) Serge Ibaka (6.7 PTS, 49.8% FG, 39.1% 3FG, 68.8% FT, 4.4 REB, 1.0 AST, 0.7 BLK, 14.7 PER). Despite struggling with injuries over the last three years (69 games missed), the 32-year-old Ibaka’s rim defense and perimeter shooting project as a perfect fit for Budenholzer’s system, while also bringing a wealth of postseason experience to Milwaukee, including a championship ring earned as member of the Raptors back in 2019. Ibaka has featured in just thirty-five games for Los Angeles this season, making only ten starts en route to logging career-lows in a slew of categories including minutes (16.0), rebounds (4.4), steals (0.2), and blocks (0.7). In two games since arriving in East Wisconsin, Ibaka has averaged 7.5 points on 66.7% shooting and 6.0 rebounds in 27.5 minutes of action.
When we last saw the Bucks, they managed to snap their two-game losing streak with a 128-119 victory over division rival, Indiana last Tuesday night. The hosts started quickly in this one, outscoring the Pacers 34-27 in the first quarter, shooting a torrid 13-of-22 from the field (59.1%), including 3-of-7 from beyond the arc (42.9%), while piling up eight assists in comparison to just two turnovers. As he tends to do, Antetokounmpo played a HUGE role in the early proceedings, dropping a dozen points on 4-of-5 shooting (80.0%) en route to torching the visitors for a season-high FIFTY points on 17-of-21 shooting overall (81.0%), with much of his damage coming from the charity stripe where he calmly netted 14-of-18 attempts (77.8%), along with fourteen rebounds and four assists. It was the Greek Freak’s first fifty burger since downing the Suns in Game Six of last Summer’s NBA Finals, as it was clear that he could do just about whatever he wanted with Indy’s defense throughout the affair. As a team, Budenholzer’s charges shot a stellar 55.8% from the floor, including 10-of-29 from three (34.5%), and 22-of-30 from the free-throw line (73.3%), outscoring the visitors by fourteen points in that last regard. The hosts did a tremendous job of moving the basketball as well, racking up twenty-eight assists, which was nearly more than they had totaled in the previous two games combined. Middleton and Holiday added nineteen and fourteen points respectively, on a cumulative 13-of-24 shooting (54.1%), with both players dishing out eight assists apiece. With that said, this was far from a strong showing on the defensive end of the hardwood for the deer, who allowed the Pacers to burn them from downtown (17-of-41), where they were ousted by twenty-one points, and move the ball at will with thirty-two assists. Unfortunately, they shot themselves in the foot at the stripe, knocking down a miserable 8-of-19 free-throws (42.1%), which led to that aforementioned advantage for the home side. With all that said, this looked like a true Bucks game for the first time in about a week, as Giannis & Co held the edge in rebounding (+6), points in the paint (+14), and in transition (+9). Within two games of first place in the Eastern Conference, Milwaukee will be looking to head into this weekend’s All-Star Break with a bang against a shorthanded Sixers side that appears to be going through the motions before the respite. When they met earlier this season, they had the good fortune of catching Philadelphia without the aforementioned Embiid, which led to a 118-109 victory. Trailing 93-91 after three quarters, the deer put their foot on the gas in the fourth, outscoring the hosts 27-16, with their defense relegating them to just 6-of-29 shooting in the period (20.7%), including a dreadful 1-of-12 from three (8.3%). Antetokounmpo led the way with thirty-one points on 12-of-26 shooting (46.2%), with sixteen rebounds, four assists, and a pair of blocks, followed by Middleton, who totaled twenty-five points on 8-of-13 shooting (61.5%) and 5-of-9 from long range (55.6%).