7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Warriors -3.5, Over/Under: 219.0
Western powers collide as the surging Dallas Mavericks battle the reborn Golden State Warriors in a matchup of two teams looking to make their move in what could be a wide-open West, from Chase Center in San Francisco, California. After a bit of a rough start to this new era of basketball in Northern Texas, the Mavericks (35-25, 5th in Western Conference) have seriously rounded into form as they look to continue ascending up the standings. Indeed, after thirteen largely successful years under the leadership of (former Head Coach) Rick Carlisle that featured the franchise’s only NBA title, (Owner) Mark Cuban hit the reset button on his team and usher in a new regime, led by (General Manager) Nico Harrison and (Head Coach) Jason Kidd. Of course, the latter has a long history with Dallas, who selected the Hall of Famer second overall back in the 1994 NBA Draft, spending the first 2.5 years of his career before ultimately returning midway through the 2007-2008 campaign to play a role in their run to a Larry O’Brien trophy in 2011. However, from a coaching standpoint his hiring was not without its concerns; following one season in Brooklyn, Kidd lobbied his way out of the Big Apple to join Milwaukee, where he would be fired midway through his fourth year on the job having compiled a mediocre 183-190 (.490) record in both stops. From there, he enjoyed an assistant role with the Lakers, who won a championship in the 2020 Bubble, spending one more year in Los Angeles before returning to the Mavs for a third spell. From Dallas’ point of view, it became clear that Carlisle’s message was wearing thin, particularly on (All-NBA Guard) Luka Doncic (27.4 PTS, 44.6% FG, 33.5% 3FG, 73.5% FT, 9.1 REB, 9.0 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.5 BLK, 24.1 PER), whose meteoric rise has vaulted his team into the playoffs in each of the last two years. As is so often the case, ownership ultimately sided with the 22-year-old superstar in an effort to appease him and keep his talents in house for the foreseeable future. Very much a player’s coach, it appears that Kidd and Doncic have gotten on very well despite it taking a bit of time to build their current chemistry; the Mavericks were a meager 17-18 at the turn of the new year but have since then have won eighteen of twenty-four games heading into the All-Star Break. So, what in the name of Derek Harper changed, you ask? Ironically, for a team that isn’t necessarily littered with defensive stoppers, they have evolved into one of the stingiest defensive units in the National Basketball Association. On the season, Dallas has allowed an average of 103.3 points per game (2nd Overall) on 45.5% shooting from the field (14th Overall), including 33.5% from beyond the arc (4th Overall) and 52.5% from within it (13th Overall), all the while fighting the urge to put their opponents on the charity stripe where they’ve attempted just 20.2 free-throws a night (8th Overall). Furthermore, with Doncic at the helm they take care of the basketball with a turnover percentage of 11.7% (8th Overall) and have done a solid job on the defensive glass with a rebounding percentage of 78.4% (4th Overall). Of course, playing at a slower tempo and limiting possession also helps, for the Mavs enjoy only 95.5 possessions per forty-eight minutes, which tracks at the second-lowest pace in the NBA. However, since the new year they’ve been even better, yielding a scant 101.0 points on 44.8% shooting overall and 30.3% from downtown, where they’ve outscored the opposition by an average margin of 12.6 points. (Guards) Jalen Brunson (16.1 PTS, 50.1% FG, 37.0% 3FG, 81.3% FT, 3.8 REB, 5.4 AST, 0.9 STL, 17.3 PER) and Dorian Finney-Smith (10.1 PTS, 44.3% FG, 37.2% 3FG, 68.2% FT, 4.8 REB, 1.9 AST, 1.2 STL, 0.5 BLK, 11.6 PER) have been excellent two-way player for Kidd, while (Bigs) Dwight Powell (7.6 PTS, 65.4% FG, 40.6% 3FG, 75.0% FT, 4.5 REB, 1.1 AST, 0.5 STL, 17.0 PER) and Maxi Kleber (7.8 PTS, 42.7% FG, 36.5% 3FG, 77.1% FT, 5.9 REB, 1.2 AST, 0.5 STL, 1.1 BLK, 12.8 PER) have been much more of a presence this season after both players missed so much time last year due to injuries and COVID. And then there was the Trade Deadline, where Kidd and Harrison decided to part ways with (towering sharpshooter) Kristaps Porzingis in a deal with the Wizards in exchange for (veteran Guard) Spencer Dinwiddie (10.7 PTS, 59.1% FG, 44.4% 3FG, 28.6% FT, 2.7 REB, 2.7 AST, 1.0 STL, 15.9 PER) and (veteran Forward) Davis Bertans (10.7 PTS, 45.8% FG, 40.9% 3FG, 100.0% FT, 2.7 REB, 0.7 AST, 21.6 PER). While the Mavericks were initially lambasted for this transaction, it makes a lot of sense in a number of ways. First and foremost, the pairing of Doncic and Porzingis simply never wrought the desired results, with their relationship as icy as Luka’s was with their former Head Coach. Furthermore, injuries have affected the Latvian greatly, missing SIXTY-NINE games over the past three seasons, and with $101.4 million owed to him over the next three years, getting him off the books became imperative to Harrison. With that said, taking on the contracts of Dinwiddie and Bertans essentially meant that they took Porzingis’ salary hold and split it into two players, though there is reason to believe that these guys can and will fit into Kidd’s system better than the Latvian giant. Dinwiddie may have talked his way out of Washington, but his ballhandling provides an alternative to Doncic, and as he is farther removed from an ACL tear that relegated him to just three games a year ago, he should resemble the player that was a budding playmaker for the Nets. As for Bertans, he’s unlikely to provide much defensively and has struggled with injuries as well, though he is a career 39.9% shooter from three, and there’s always a place for shooters in ANY rotation.
When we last saw the Mavericks, they met defeat in their first action seen following the All-Star Break, falling short in a 114-109 loss at the Jazz. last Friday night. Despite leading 67-60 at halftime, the visitors really struggled on the offensive end throughout the second half, shooting just 39.5% from the field, while attempting only one single free-throw during that span. Conversely, this was the first poor defensive performance that we’ve seen from Dallas in a quite a while, as the hosts netted 52.6% of their attempts, including 9-of-20 from beyond the arc (45.0%), over the final two periods of play. With that said, the Mavs certainly had an opportunity to earn the victory; leading 107-105 following back-to-back Doncic jumpers with just over three minutes to play, Kidd’s troops would go on to miss eight of their final nine shots from the field as the Jazz routinely got into the paint for easy opportunities. In the end, the Mavericks shot 47.7% as a team and 17-of-39 from downtown (43.6%) but could muster only eight free-throw attempts on the night, with the home side outscoring them by ten points in that regard, which proved to be the difference in such a close affair. Furthermore, Utah manhandled them on the glass (44-30), keeping Doncic & Co from getting out into transition. Speaking of the Slovenian sensation, he was one of three Mavs to score twenty or more points, totaling a team-best twenty-three along with seven rebounds and eleven assists, but struggled throughout the encounter 8-of-24 shooting (33.3%). The aforementioned Powell put together a strong performance with twenty-two points on 9-of-12 shooting (75.0%) and seven rebounds. However, the most positive takeaway from this loss was the showing from Dinwiddie and Bertans, who combined for thirty-seven points off the bench on an efficient 14-of-21 shooting (66.7%), including 8-of-12 from three (66.7%). With the rotation shortened mightily by injuries, Dallas NEEDS these two newcomers to settle in, regain their form, and above all else PRODUCE because they are in the middle of the playoff field out West; the Mavericks are currently tied with the Nuggets for fifth in the conference, and while they’re a long way from challenging for the top spot, they remain just 3.5 games out of the play-in field. Tonight’s meeting with the Warriors, who lead them by eight games in the standings, is the third of this season, with each team earning a victory on their home floor. In their first matchup at American Airlines Center back in early January, Dallas won comfortably (99-82), only to get run off the floor at Chase Center (130-92) three weeks later.
Meanwhile, after spending the last two seasons navigating through the proverbial wilderness, the Warriors (43-17, 2nd in Western Conference) are back, ladies and gentlemen, with designs on regaining their crown as the West’s dominant franchise. Indeed, Golden State won FIVE consecutive conference titles from 2014-2015 to 2018-2019, claiming THREE Larry O’Brien trophies along the way, only for their dynasty to collapse in the most heartbreaking of ways. During the 2019 NBA Finals, the Dubs lost both (2013-2014 MVP) Kevin Durant (Achilles) and (5-time All-Star) Klay Thompson (ACL) to catastrophic injuries en route to falling to the Raptors, leading to Durant’s departure in Free Agency that ensuing summer. Thompson would go on to miss the entire 2019-2020 campaign, while (two-time MVP) Steph Curry (25.7 PTS, 42.8% FG, 37.8% 3FG, 92.1% FT, 5.3 REB, 6.5 AST, 1.4 STL, 21.7 PER) broke his right hand just four games into the season, as (Head Coach) Steve Kerr could do little but watch helplessly as his charges crumbled to a 15-50 last-place finish. Expected to bounce back, the Warriors would have to put their rebirth on hold for one more year, as Thompson again suffered a debilitating injury, rupturing his Achilles in a routine offseason workout, costing him a second consecutive season. However, Curry very nearly carried them back to the playoffs, authoring arguably his most impressive campaign to date, leading the National Basketball Association in scoring with a career-high 32.0 points per game, though his side would ultimately flame out in the second round of the Play-In. This season, Golden State has rounded back into form in getting off to a stellar 18-2 start, before eventually welcoming Thompson (17.1 PTS, 42.3% FG, 38.5% 3FG, 93.9% FT, 3.8 REB, 3.0 AST, 0.6 STL, 18.1 PER) back onto the hardwood, with the sharpshooting All-Star slowly reverting back into the consistent performer that we’ve grown accustomed to; with Kerr and his staff monitoring his minutes, the 32-year-old has featured in seventeen of the last twenty-two games, averaging 17.1 points on 41.8% shooting, including 37.4% from beyond the arc, along with 3.8 rebounds and 3.1 assists, torching the Lakers for thirty-three points in narrow 117-115 victory back on February 12th. Granted, it’s a legitimate question if he’ll ever be the two-way presence he was prior to those injuries, but as he gets back into proper game condition, his shooting alone is a major boon to the Dubs. And speaking of defense and injuries, the Warriors are still without two sizeable components on that end of the hardwood, namely (versatile Forward) Draymond Green (7.9 PTS, 53.7% FG, 28.6% 3FG, 59.7% FT, 7.6 REB, 7.4 AST, 1.4 STL, 1.2 BLK, 15.1 PER) and (veteran Swingman) Andre Iguodala (4.1 PTS, 39.2% FG, 23.0% 3FG, 81.3% FT, 3.3 REB, 3.8 AST, 0.8 STL, 0.8 BLK, 13.1 PER). For all the talk of Curry and Thompson, it’s long been hinted at that Green is the most indispensable player in the rotation, for he is the connective glue that has so often taken this team from being formidable to elite. True, the 31-year-old has never scored much (8.7 PPG over his career), but he oftentimes serves as their chief playmaker, logging over seven assists five times over the last seven seasons and is an absolute savant on defense; Green has been selected to six All-NBA Defensive Teams, is a former Defensive Player of the Year (2016-2017), and routinely among the leaders in steals. Though standing just 6′-6″ and checking in at 230 lbs, this guy is Kerr’s linchpin at Center when they go small, and his presence has been sorely missed; Green has missed twenty-five games thus far with a back injury, including each of the last twenty, with the Dubs just 14-11 without him and yielding 109.1 points per game on 44.8% shooting overall and 35.3% from three, along with 24.7 assists opposed to 13.0 turnovers without him. Word out of Warriors camp is that it will be another 3-4 weeks before he is expected to return to the hardwood, as they look to take every precaution with the vet. Fortunately for Kerr, there have been plenty of contributions from various members of the supporting cast to help alleviate his absence; (veteran Swingman) Andrew Wiggins (17.6 PTS, 47.8% FG, 40.9% 3FG, 65.3% FT, 4.2 REB, 2.1 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.7 BLK, 16.1 PER) has resurrected his career out west, earning his first All-Star nod last weekend, while (unheralded Guard) Jordan Poole (16.3 PTS, 43.9% FG, 33.8% 3FG, 92.3% FT, 3.1 REB, 3.5 AST, 0.8 STL, 14.6 PER) is in line for a lucrative payday on the strength of his growth, with reports that Kerr and (General Manager) Bob Meyers wish to sign him to a long-term extension worth $80 million in lieu of restricted free agency.
When we last saw the Warriors, the received a golden opportunity to course correct themselves following back-to-back losses heading into the All-Star Break, facing an utterly decimated Trail Blazers squad that has been completely overhauled following various trades and injuries. While this one was competitive early, it wouldn’t remain that way as Golden State easily dispatched Portland on the road in a 132-95 rout. Looking at that final score, it’s difficult to imagine the hosts leading after the first quarter, but that was precisely the case as the score stood 32-21 in favor of the Blazers after the first twelve minutes. Unfortunately, there was plenty of basketball to be played last Friday night and the home side simply couldn’t keep up; Kerr’s troops outscored them 101-63 over the final three quarters, including 69-41 between the second and third periods alone. The Dubs shot a blistering 51.1% from the field, including 15-of-41 from beyond the arc (36.6%), edging Portland by eighteen points in that regard, while also netting 27-of-32 free-throws (84.4%). Furthermore, they assisted on THIRTY-SIX of their forty-five field goals, hammered them on the glass (46-31), killed them in the paint (56-34), and turned eighteen turnovers into twenty points. Eight different Warriors scored in double-figures, with Curry and Thompson totaling eighteen apiece despite sitting for the majority of the second half, shooting 9-of-24 from the floor (37.5%), with the former dishing out fourteen assists in his first game following an All-Star Weekend in which he went OFF for FIFTY points and SIXTEEN three-pointers in Sunday’s exhibition. The supporting cast really got into the action in this one, with Wiggins, Gary Payton Jr. (6.9 PTS, 61.7% FG, 37.5% 3FG, 58.0% FT, 3.4 REB, 0.8 AST, 1.4 STL, 18.9 PER) and Kevon Looney (6.4 PTS, 55.4% FG, 63.1% FT, 7.5 REB, 1.7 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.7 BLK, 15.9PER) logging ten points apiece, while the bench was well-represented with Poole, (Rookie Forward) Jonathan Kuminga (8.1 PTS, 50.9% FG, 32.6% 3FG, 67.2% FT, 2.9 REB, 0.7 AST, 14.9 PER), and Otto Porter (8.4 PTS, 47.7% FG, 38.9% 3FG, 76.9% FT, 5.3 REB, 1.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.5 BLK, 16.8 PER) combining for forty-two points on 12-of-23 shooting (52.1%). Again, this was an encouraging performance for a supporting cast that has been missing valuable veteran leadership in the form of Green and Iguodala, and even against an inferior opponent has shown that they can step up when called upon. Now with twenty-two games left before the playoffs and trailing the Suns by six games in the standings, the Warriors will be looking to make up that ground as Phoenix deals with the loss of (All-Star Point Guard) Chris Paul for what should be the next 6-8 weeks. Granted, six games are a lot to make up, particularly when you consider the injuries that they’ve dealt with, but as we’ve seen on so many occasions in the past, this is a team that is capable of going on long runs, and we’d be truly naive to count them out of securing the West’s no. one seed.