
8:30 PM EST, ABC – Line: Bucks -1.0, Over/Under: 232.0

A potential NBA Finals preview is on tap tonight out west as the reigning champion, Milwaukee Bucks battle the resurgent Golden State Warriors in a primetime matchup from chase Center in San Francisco, California. Though the East may be as wide-open as it has been in quite a while after the Trade Deadline, there remains growing sentiment that the Bucks (42-25, 2nd in Eastern Conference) remain the favorites to come out of the field as victors. After winning their first Larry O’Brien trophy in fifty years, there was a feeling that Milwaukee had all the makings of going on a prolonged run and following a slow start to their title defense they have certainly rounded into championship form. Stumbling out of the gates to a 6-8 record was understandable for a team that was clearly fatigued following their run to the Finals (which ended in late July BTW), only for their top three performers, (two-time MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.7 PTS, 54.9% FG, 30.7% 3FG, 72.1% FT, 11.5 REB, 6.0 AST, 1.1 STL, 1.4 BLK, 32.6 PER) along with (All-Stars) Khris Middleton (20.3 PTS, 44.9% FG, 36.9% 3FG, 88.9% FT, 5.3 REB, 5.4 AST, 1.1 STL, 18.7 PER) and Jrue Holiday (18.3 PTS, 50.4% FG, 41.7% 3FG, 76.8% FT, 4.7 REB, 6.7 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.5 BLK, 20.0 PER) to immediately hop on a plane to compete in the Summer Olympics, altogether leading to a second consecutive abridged offseason. As a result, this triumvirate hasn’t enjoyed much time together on the hardwood thus far; Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Holiday have featured together in just thirty-five of their sixty-six games and is still just the sixth-most utilized three-man combination that (Head Coach) Mike Budenholzer has relied upon; the trio has logged 621:47 of gametime thus far, with the team +13.0 in points, +.056 in field goal percentage, +3.9 in rebounding, and +1.3 in assists when they are on the court together. Granted, the Bucks are 27-8 when they are all healthy, which has been the case of late, with the three competing in seventeen of their last eighteen contests, a period in which they’ve gone 12-5, including six consecutive victories. It’s a good thing that this triumvirate have come together, because many members of the supporting cast have succumbed to injury, with the likes of (veteran Center) Brook Lopez (8.0 PTS, 33.3% FG, 50.0% 3FG, 5.0 REB, 1.0 STL, 3.0 BLK, 11.7 PER), (veteran Guard) George Hill (7.0 PTS, 43.6% FG, 31.6% 3FG, 96.0% FT, 3.2 REB, 2.5 AST, 0.8 STL, 11.0 PER), and (backup Forward) Pat Connaughton (10.1 PTS, 46.7% FG, 81.1% FT, 4.4 REB, 1.2 AST, 0.9 STL, 13.6 PER) all sidelined with various ailments. The towering Lopez has missed virtually the entire campaign after undergoing back surgery, while Hill has missed the last sixteen outings with a strained neck, with Connaughton undergoing surgery to repair torn ligaments in his hand, though each player is expected to return before the playoffs begin in a month’s time. Fortunately, many younger members of the supporting cast have managed to pick up the slack, with Budenholzer and his staff doing a solid job of developing the rest of the rotation. (Sparkplug Guard) Grayson Allen (11.3 PTS, 43.1% FG, 39.5% 3FG, 85.7% FT, 3.4 REB, 1,6 AST, 0.8 STL, 12.8 PER) has missed some time but has nonetheless been a sound addition to the supporting cast, while (journeyman Forward) Bobby Portis (15.7 PTS, 48.8% FG, 41.7% 3FG, 74.8% FT, 9.2 REB, 1.2 AST, 0.8 STL, 0.8 BLK, 18.8 PER) has really found a home within Budenholzer’s system. After playing for three different teams in two years, the 27-year-old landed in Milwaukee last season and played an important role in their run to the O’Brien trophy, and with Lopez sidelined for the bulk of the campaign, has flourished a small-ball five. Portis has logged career-highs in a slew of categories including minutes (29.0), points (15.7), three-pointers (121), rebounds (9.2), and blocks (0.8). At 6′-10″, he has the length and size to defend the rim and hold his own on the glass, while his three-point shooting (41.7%) complements Antetokounmpo perfectly, creating space for the Greek Freak to operate in the paint. Budenholzer and (General Manager) Jon Horst also went to work at the Trade Deadline in search of reinforcements, landing (veteran Center) Serge Ibaka (6.4 PTS, 50.0% FG, 33.3% 3FG, 66.7% FT, 5.9 REB, 0.5 AST, 0.6 BLK, 12.1 PER) in exchange for (young Swingman) Donte DiVincenzo, who had been struggling to return to form following surgery last Summer, along with (veteran Guard) Rodney Hood and (backup Forward) Semi Ojeleye in a four-time trade with the Raptors, Kings, and Clippers. Despite struggling with injuries over the last three years (69 games missed), the 32-year-old’s rim defense and perimeter shooting project as a perfect fit for Budenholzer’s system, while also bringing a wealth of postseason experience to Milwaukee, including a championship ring earned as member of the Raptors back in 2019. Ibaka had featured in just thirty-five games for Los Angeles this season, making only ten starts en route to amassing career-lows in a slew of categories including minutes (16.0), rebounds (4.4), steals (0.2), and blocks (0.7). In ten games since arriving in East Wisconsin, Ibaka has yet to make much of an impact, with averages of 6.4 points on 50.0% shooting and 5.9 rebounds in 19.8 minutes of action.

When we last saw the Bucks, they managed to fend off a late rally from the Hawks to secure a 124-115 victory, their sixth straight. After falling behind 3-0 early in the first quarter, the hosts would never trail the rest of the game, building a 19-point lead in the first half. Milwaukee led 68-54 at halftime, shooting a torrid 53.1% from the field, including 9-of-21 from beyond the arc (42.9%), with fourteen assists opposed to just four turnovers over the course of the first two periods of play. However, Atlanta would fight back in the third quarter, cutting the deficit to five points at the conclusion of the stanza, before Budenholzer’s troops put them away in the fourth. In the end, the home side shot 50.0% overall, including 12-of-35 from downtown (34.3%), and 18-of-23 from the charity stripe (78.3%), with twenty-four assists in comparison to committing only eight turnovers. Both teams took excellent care of the basketball and shot exactly 50.0% from the floor, while the game was largely contested in the half court, with a combined eleven fastbreak points between them. However, the Bucks held a clear advantage in the paint, where they hammered the Hawks 62-46, with Antetokounmpo once again reminding everyone why he is a two-time MVP; the Greek international dominated with FORTY-THREE points on an efficient 15-of-22 shooting (68.2%), and 12-of-17 from the free-throw line (70.6%), along with a dozen rebounds and five assists. Since sitting out a 15-point loss to Portland before the All-Star Break, he’s been in the zone, averaging 33.3 points on 59.4% shooting, including 35.5% from three, along with 13.3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.2 blocks over the last nine contests. Both Middleton and Portis finished the affair with twenty-three points apiece, with the former tying for the team lead with eight helpers, while the latter drilled 4-of-8 treys (50.0%) and pulled down fifteen boards. The victory vaulted Milwaukee closer to first place in the Eastern Conference, with just two games separating them and Miami in the standings, while leading the reconfigured 76ers by a single game. Looking forward, tonight’s trip to San Francisco is the start of a four-game road trip and a stretch in which seven of their next nine outings being away from Fiserv Forum, with matchups against western heavyweights Golden State, Utah, and Memphis before crossing paths with eastern rivals Chicago, Philadelphia, and Brooklyn.

Meanwhile, in the wake of the Chris Paul injury in Phoenix, the Warriors (45-22, 3rd in Western Conference) have been presented with a golden opportunity (no pun intended) to close the gap in the standings out west. However, Golden State have been dealing with their own injuries of late and have actually LOST ground to not only the Suns (8.5 games), but the Grizzlies too, who have vaulted past them tanks to owning the tiebreaker between them. 29-7 to start the season, the Dubs have largely trodden water since then, posting a 16-15 record over their last thirty-one outings. So, what in the name of Chris Mullin has happened to the Warriors, you ask? Well, (Head Coach) Steve Kerr has been without arguably his three top defensive stoppers for quite a while now, with the most significant being (veteran froward) Draymond Green (7.9 PTS, 53.7% FG, 28.6% 3FG, 59.7% FT, 7.6 REB, 7.4 AST, 1.4 STL, 1.2 BLK, 15.1 PER), who has missed the last twenty-eight games due to a lingering back injury that has cost him a total of thirty-three contests on the season. For all the talk of (sharpshooting superstar) Steph Curry (25.8 PTS, 43.4% FG, 37.8% 3FG, 92.1% FT, 5.3 REB, 6.4 AST, 1.4 STL, 21.6 PER) and (fellow sniper) Klay Thompson (16.8 PTS, 40.5% FG, 35.6% 3FG, 92.1% FT, 3.9 REB, 2.9 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.7 BLK, 15.8 PER), it’s long been hinted at that Green is the most indispensable player in the rotation, for he is the connective glue that has so often taken this team from being formidable to elite. True, the 31-year-old has never scored much (8.7 PPG over his career), but he oftentimes serves as their chief playmaker, logging over seven assists per game five times over the last seven seasons and is an absolute savant on defense; Green has been selected to six All-NBA Defensive Teams, is a former Defensive Player of the Year (2016-2017), and routinely among the league leaders in steals. Though standing just 6′-6″ and checking in at 230 lbs., this guy is Kerr’s linchpin at Center when they go small, and his presence has been sorely missed; the Dubs are just 15-13 without him and yielding 110.3 points per game on 45.4% shooting overall and 35.3% from three, along with 24.5 assists opposed to 13.2 turnovers without him. Fortunately, there is a light at the end of the tunnel, with Green announcing that he should be back in action for Monday night’s date with the Wizards, giving the veteran fourteen games to get back into shape before the postseason begins in mid-April. Apart from Green, (veteran Swingman) Andre Iguodala (4.1 PTS, 39.2% FG, 23.0% 3FG, 81.3% FT, 3.3 REB, 3.8 AST, 0.8 STL, 0.8 BLK, 13.1 PER) has missed twenty-one of the last twenty-two contests with an ailing back of his own, while the aforementioned Thompson has yet to return to his previous level of being one of the NBA’s premier two-way talents. Of course, the five-time All-Star missed two entire seasons due to catastrophic lower leg injuries, tearing his ACL in the 2019 NBA Finals and rupturing his Achilles tendon during a pickup game during the following offseason. After missing the first thirty-eight games of the campaign, Thompson made his long-awaited return back in early January and has since twenty-one of the Warriors’ last twenty-nine games, slowly regaining his form on the offensive end in shooting 40.5% from the field and 35.6% from beyond the arc, both of which registering as career-lows. However, while the belief is that he’ll eventually find his touch, the bigger issue has been on the defensive end of the hardwood, where he simply hasn’t been able slow down the athletic wings that he was charged with defending for so many years. Add it all up, and that’s why this group has struggled to a 3-5 record since the All-Star Break, where they’ve been torched for an average of 113.4 points on 47.0% shooting, including 35.3% from downtown, while yielding 24.3 assists in comparison to forcing 13.9 turnovers. With all that said, it hasn’t been all doom and gloom for Golden State, who are very much on the positive side of what has been a largely successful soft reboot. Following that fateful Finals appearance, the five-time reigning Western Conference Champions cratered to a miserable 15-50 finish two years ago, only to return to relevance on the back of Curry last season before ultimately flaming out int he play-in tournament. This season, they’ve experienced a wealth of internal growth, with many members of the supporting cast becoming greater contributors, particularly in the absence of so many of their elder statesman. (Veteran Swingman) Andrew Wiggins (17.2 PTS, 46.9% FG, 40.1% 3FG, 62.6% FT, 4.4 REB, 2.3 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.7 BLK, 15.5 PER) has resurrected his career out west, earning his first All-Star nod last weekend, while (unheralded Guard) Jordan Poole (16.7 PTS, 45.1% FG, 35.5% 3FG, 92.3% FT, 3.1 REB, 3.6 AST, 0.8 STL, 15.1 PER) is in line for a lucrative payday on the strength of his growth, with reports that Kerr and (General Manager) Bob Meyers wish to sign him to a long-term extension worth $80 million in lieu of restricted free agency.

When we last saw the Warriors, they continued to pull themselves back out of a recent funk that saw them lose five consecutive games, rallying back to best the Nuggets in a 113-102 victory on the road. Trailing by as many as eleven points in the first half, Golden State flipped the script after intermission, outscoring Denver 62-42 over the final twenty-four minutes of action. Simply put, Kerr’s charges caught FIRE in the second half, netting a blistering 52.4% of their attempts from the field, including 9-of-22 from beyond the arc (40.9%), while dishing out eleven assists in comparison to committing only a pair of turnovers. Curry exploded for twenty-four of his thirty-four points during this stretch, while the bench mob of (Rookie Forward) Jonathan Kuminga (9.0 PTS, 51.9% FG, 34.7% 3FG, 69.3% FT, 3.0 REB, 0.8 AST, 15.5 PER) and the aforementioned Poole scored twelve and eleven points respectively during the last two periods of play, with all three of them drilling a combined 8-of-13 attempts from downtown (61.5%). As far as the hosts were concerned, they really looked like they ran out of gas, particularly during a fourth quarter in which they could only muster eighteen points. Kerr had to have been elated with the performance of his defense, which limited the Nuggets to 38.9% shooting, including a miserable 4-of-14 from three (28.6%), and nearly as many turnovers (7) as assists (9). With Wiggins struggling mightily (7 points on 3-of-11 shooting) and Thompson failing to find his stroke (7-of-20 FG, 2-of-8 3FG), Kuminga and Poole picked up the slack to support Curry, with the former totaling eighteen points on 7-of-12 shooting (58.3%), while the latter ended up with twenty-one points on 8-of-13 shooting (61.5%). There were two major differences in the affair, with each squarely in favor of Golden State, who in nailing 14-of-42 treys outscored Denver by a whopping TWENTY-ONE points, while also manufacturing the home side’s thirteen turnovers into twenty-six points, which was good for a +16 margin. This was a key matchup for the Dubs, for if the playoffs had started today then these teams would be renewing acquaintances in the first round, and with the Nuggets defeating in each of their three previous meetings before Thursday night’s encounter it was necessary from a mental standpoint to gain some confidence.