8:00 PM EST – Line: Hawks -1.0, Over/Under: 228.5
Another potential playoff preview is on tap tonight on South Beach, as the Atlanta Hawks look to climb into a more favorable position within the play-in tournament in lieu of their encounter with the East’s top seed, the Miami Heat, from FTX Arena in Miami, Florida. After upsetting the top-seeded 76ers and making the (eventual NBA Champion) Bucks sweat in the Conference Finals, much was expected out of the Hawks (42-38, 9th in Eastern Conference) coming into 2021-2022. After all, they were very much a second-half team last season, taking off after Nate McMillan was appointed interim Head Coach in the wake of Lloyd Pierce’s ousting. Atlanta went 27-11 down the stretch under McMillan’s watch, proving to be ahead of schedule throughout their unexpected postseason run. As a result, they confirmed the 57-year-old in his position, while also signing (soon-to-be Free Agent Forward) John Collins (16.2 PTS, 52.6% FG, 36.4% 3FG, 79.3% FT, 7.8 REB, 1.8 AST, 0.6 STL, 1.0 BLK, 18.7 PER) to a lucrative long-term contract (5-years/$125 million). That coupled with the expected internal growth of many of their young talent, chief among them (sharpshooting Guard) Trae Young (28.3 PTS, 45.9% FG, 38.2% 3FG, 90.2% FT, 3.7 REB, 9.7 AST, 1.0 STL, 25.4 PER), whose star turn last summer propelled the dirty birds to their first Conference Final since 2015, and you suddenly have a group that was faced with HIGH expectations. Unfortunately, McMillan’s troops haven’t come close to meeting those expectations, and the most frustrating part of it all is that most of it isn’t even their fault. Indeed, the East has been MUCH better than it’s been in recent memory, particularly after the Trade Deadline where so many of their number had improved vastly or put together a furious charge. The Hawks on the other hand, stood largely pat in the offseason and at the Trade Deadline, and as a result have been left in the dust. So, what in the name of Dominique Wilkins has happened in Hotlanta, you ask? Well, a year ago this was a team that checked in comfortably in the middle of the pack on both ends of the hardwood, ranking thirteenth in points scored (113.7) and twelfth in points allowed (111.4), while controlling the tempo of games by getting to the charity stripe, where they finished fourth in free-throw attempts (24.2), second in makes (19.7), and first in free-throw/field goal attempt ratio (.226). This season, they’ve improved offensively only to regress defensively, scoring 113.8 points per game (8th Overall) in comparison to allowing a disappointing 112.3 points (22nd Overall). Indeed, Young has continued to cement himself as one of the premier offensive threats in the National Basketball Association, averaging career-highs in a slew of categories including field goal percentage (45.9%), three-point percentage (38.2%), two-point percentage (50.9%), free-throw percentage (90.2%), assists (9.7), and PER (25.4). With the ball in his hands so frequently, Atlanta has committed the fewest turnovers in the NBA (11.8), while continuing to get to the charity stripe with aplomb, ranking tenth in attempts (22.3), third in makes (18.1), and fifth in free-throw/field goal attempt ratio (.205). However, he hasn’t received the most consistent support, with the likes of Collins missing TWENTY-SIX games with finger and foot maladies, while (2019 fourth overall pick) De’Andre Hunter’s (13.4 PTS, 44.3% FG, 37.0% 3FG, 76.4% FT, 3.4 REB, 1.3 AST, 0.7 STL, 10.9 PER) career continues to be hindered by injuries, missing another TWENTY-NINE outings following a campaign in which he competed in only TWENTY-THREE contests before undergoing knee surgery. Furthermore, (sparkplug Guard) Bogdan Bogdanovic (14.9 PTS, 43.2% FG, 36.7% 3FG, 85.8% FT, 3.9 REB, 3.0 AST, 1.0 STL, 15.2 PER) has missed nineteen games with an assortment of ailments, leaving the aforementioned Young to carry the load himself on many nights. It was during a particularly dreadful stretch of play from December to mid-January when the bulk of these injuries took place, with the Hawks paying a heavy price; Atlanta lost FIFTEEN of twenty-one games between December 1st and January 15th, spiraling towards the bottom of the East with a disappointing 17-25 record. However, just as they had a year ago, McMillan’s charges got better as the campaign progressed, winning eleven of sixteen games heading into the All-Star Break, and going 14-8 after the midseason respite. During this combined stretch, they’ve become even deadlier offensively, averaging 117.5 points on a healthy 47.9% shooting, including 37.5% from beyond the arc, while dishing out 25.7 assists in comparison to committing just 10.8 turnovers. When we last saw them, the Hawks routed the lowly Wizards in a 118-103 affair from State Farm Arena on Wednesday night, setting the tone with a 40-point first quarter in which they shot 16-of-27 from the field (59.3%) and 6-of-13 from downtown (46.2%), while making Washington pay for their eight turnovers. In the end, the hosts outscored the visitors by eighteen points from three, by seven points from the free-throw line, and manufactured their fourteen turnovers into sixteen points, doubling the total of their opponent. Young led the way with thirty points on 8-of-17 shooting (47.1%) and 11-of-12 from the stripe (91.7%), along with eleven assists, while (veteran Stretch-Four) Danilo Gallinari (11.5 PTS, 43.0% FG, 37.5% 3FG, 90.3% FT, 4.7 REB, 1.5 AST, 14.3 PER) added twenty-six points and ten rebounds, while knocking down 4-of-7 treys (57.1%), with Bogdanovic chipping in with eighteen points off the bench, and (veteran Center) Clint Capela (10.9 PTS, 60.9% FG, 46.3% FT, 11.8 REB, 1.3 AST, 0.8 STL, 1.3 BLK, 21.0 PER) doing what he does best with nineteen points, seven rebounds, and four steals. That win, their seventh in nine games, pulled Atlanta into a virtual tie with Brooklyn for the eighth seed, though by virtue of the tiebreaker, the birds drop down to ninth, where they remain 1.5 games ahead of the Hornets. Following tonight’s trip to South Beach, they will end the regular season on Sunday in Houston against the lowly Rockets, whom they will no doubt be favored against. If they remain in ninth place, then any positive outcome in the play-in will in all likelihood mean a first-round encounter with Miami, whom they are 1-2 against in three meetings thus far.
Meanwhile, little over eighteen months removed from advancing to the NBA Finals during the league’s pandemic-interrupted campaign, the Heat (52-28, 1st in Eastern Conference) paid the price for their success, slumping to a 40-32 finish last season, concluding with an unceremonious sweep in the first round of the playoffs. A ridiculously abridged offseason led to serious fatigue, which in turn led to a litany of injuries, and numerous outbreaks of COVID-19 meant that Miami was never afforded the luxury of properly defending their eastern crown. However, (Head Coach) Eirk Spoelstra & Co went into this past summer with a plan to recharge and continue to develop their talent, while also adding valuable reinforcements in the form of a number of seasoned veterans. It was clear that Spoelstra and (Team President) Pat Riley placed an emphasis on adding vets with championship experience, and the likes of (Point Guard) Kyle Lowry (13.4 PTS, 43.6% FG, 37.5% 3FG, 85.5% FT, 4.5 REB, 7.6 AST, 1.0 STL, 15.0 PER), (defensive stopper) P.J. Tucker (7.6 PTS, 48.4% FG, 41.5% 3FG, 73.8% FT, 5.5 REB, 2.1 AST, 0.8 STL, 11.3 PER), and (versatile Forward) Markieff Morris (7.6 PTS, 47.4% FG, 33.3% 3FG, 88.9% FT, 2.6 REB, 1.4 AST, 10.9 PER) offer that in spades, with each player having performed a valuable role for the last three NBA Champions. Furthermore, all three figures fit the Heat’s culture PERFECTLY, stretching the floor from the perimeter, defending doggedly on the opposite of the end of the hardwood, and wearing a noticeable chip on their shoulders, particularly when it comes to playing alongside (All-NBA Swingman) Jimmy Butler (21.4 PTS, 48.0% FG, 23.7% 3FG, 87.1% FT, 5.9 REB, 5.6 AST, 1.7 STL, 0.5 BLK, 23.8 PER). Is there a more appropriate marriage between club and player than the Heat and Butler? The six-time All-Star remains a consistent force on both ends of the hardwood, averaging 21.4 points per game on 48.0% shooting, along with 5.9 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 1.7 steals. However, Butler’s temperament often runs HOT, as we saw in Miami’s stunning 118-104 loss at home to the decimated Warriors three weeks ago, who were without virtually all of the star-power in what was a lifeless effort from the hosts. Towards the end of the affair, Butler erupted into a shouting match with veteran teammate Udonis Haslem and later Spoelstra, that all sides would downplay during the ensuing press conference. That loss spiraled into a season-worst four-game losing streak, though it appears that they’ve worked their way through that dysfunction, stringing together five consecutive victories, three of which coming by at least eighteen points. During this stretch, Spoelstra’s men have absolutely ERUPTED on the offensive end of the hardwood, averaging 122.8 points on a robust 53.1% shooting from the field, including a torrid 47.9% from beyond the arc, while dishing out 28.8 assists in comparison to committing 14.0 turnovers, with their most impressive showing coming in last week’s 106-98 triumph on the road at the Celtics, whom they lead by 2.5 games in the standings. Simply put, this win was nothing short of MASSIVE for the Heat, who had lost the previous two meetings and thus lost any tiebreaker between the two sides. Trailing 83-79 heading into the final period, Miami outlasted the surging hosts, edging them 27-15 in the quarter largely on the strength of their defense, which held Boston to a scant 6-of-22 shooting from the floor (27.3%), including 1-of-8 from downtown (12.5%), with as many turnovers as assists (4). The tandem of Butler and Lowry scored twenty-four and twenty-three points respectively, with the latter netting 6-of-12 attempts from three (50.0%) and dishing out eight dimes. (Versatile Big) Bam Adebayo (19.0 PTS, 55.7% FG, 75.2% FT, 10.1 REB, 3.4 AST, 1.4 STL, 0.8 BLK, 21.7 PER) nearly %@#$ed around and got a triple-double with seventeen points, a dozen rebounds, and eight assists, while (Sixth Man of the Year frontrunner) Tyler Herro (20.8 PTS, 44.6% FG, 39.8% 3FG, 86.6% FT, 5.0 REB, 3.9 AST, 0.7 STL, 16.2 PER) added twelve points, ten rebounds, and five assists off the bench. The pair of Kentucky products’ star turn during their Finals run raised expectations for both players last year, and while the former has certainly been as advertised, the latter struggled with injuries and COVID-19, falling victim of the dreaded sophomore slump. With that said, Herro has been excellent in his role this season, logging career-highs in a slew of categories including points (20.8), field goal percentage (44.6%), three-point percentage (39.8%), rebounds (5.0), and assists (3.9), and if he maintains his course will become the first primarily non-starter in NBA history to average twenty or more points since the early 1990s. And speaking of the reserves, it appears that Spoelstra & Co have received reinforcements from within, as (former All-Star Guard) Victor Oladipo (8.4 PTS, 43.1% FG, 40.0% 3FG, 62.5% FT, 1.9 REB, 3.0 AST, 10.5 PER) seems to finally be working his way back into the rotation. In Miami’s 114-109 victory at Toronto on Sunday, the 29-year-old scored a season-high twenty-one points on 7-of-11 shooting (63.6%), with three rebounds, four assists, and a pair of steals in just over twenty-seven minutes of action. Of course, the franchise acquired Oladipo at the Trade Deadline last season only for the 2017-2018 Most Improved Player to suffer a ruptured quadriceps tendon after seven games, with his rehab sidelining him for the first SIXTY-FIVE games of the current campaign. Needless to say, he would be a nice option coming off the bench, particularly against opponents who are vulnerable in transition. Given their remaining schedule (vs Atlanta, at Orlando), there is a good chance that Miami secures the top seed in the East, and as we stated earlier, there is also a high probability that they will be matched up with Atlanta in the first round of the playoffs. If that is indeed to be the case, then the Heat should be heavily favored in this looming affair; 2-1 against the dirty birds, Butler & Co have bested them by an average margin of 9.4 points per game, shooting a healthy 49.6% from the field, including 39.1% from three, while outrebounding them (+5.6), and dishing out 29.3 assists in comparison to committing 14.7 turnovers. Furthermore, they’ve proven to be one of the few sides that can in fact pressure the aforementioned Young, harassing the Hawks into 15.0 turnovers per game, with the lethal scorer accounting for 5.3 of that number and netting only 39.5% of his attempts overall and 33.3% of them from deep.