8:00 PM EST, NBA TV – Line: 76ers -7.5, Over/Under: 209.5
As one team looks to advance to a second straight Eastern Conference Semifinal, another is simply trying to survive as the desperate Toronto Raptors return stateside to battle the Philadelphia 76ers in Game Five of their First Round Series from Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Though they managed to prolong their fate for one more game, we can’t shake the feeling that the inevitable is coming for the Raptors (48-34, 5th in Eastern Conference), who are fighting the tide of history after falling into an 0-3 hole. At this point, we should all be familiar with the most damning statistic in the NBA Playoffs: teams that fall behind 0-3 have NEVER come back to win said series, with the actual number currently standing at 0-143. So, with that said, is there anything that Toronto can do to turn the tables in this matchup? Well, apart from their opponent suffering an unfortunate injury to a prominent player (more on that in a bit), the answer to that question is nothing, particularly when you consider that they are the team that has already been hit with a bevy of injuries; back in Game One, (newly minted Rookie of the Year) Scottie Barnes (15.3 PTS, 49.2% FG, 30.1% 3FG, 73.5% FT, 7.5 REB, 3.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.7 BLK, 16.3 PER) hurt his foot towards the end of the 131-111 affair, causing him to miss the next two contests, before coming off the bench in Game Four. The fourth overall pick in last summer’s NBA Draft, the 20-year-old Forward has served as the posterchild for his team’s ascension over the course of the campaign; the 6′-9″, 227-lb Florida State product can guard virtually every position on the court, with his length allowing him to disrupt passing lanes, deter drives to the rim, and clean the glass. It’s no coincidence that the Raptors really took off once this kid found his legs, as (Head Coach) Nick Nurse’s exotic defensive stratagems largely revolved around Barnes’ talents, 39-21 since early December, Toronto finished the season tenth overall in defensive rating (110.5), seventh in points allowed (107.1), second in offensive rebounding percentage (28.4%), second in both steals (9.0) and turnovers (15.8), along with first in the league in turnover percentage (14.4%). And it’s with that said that they’ve struggled so much without him, for after all, this is very much your stereotypical try-hard team, and if they can’t create havoc on the defensive end, the offense simply isn’t capable of carrying them, particularly against elite offensive teams. In this series, they’ve averaged just 104.8 points and been outscored by a margin of 7.5, while shooting 44.3% from the field and 33.6% from beyond the arc, while getting outrebounded by 4.5 boards. However, the dinosaurs have helped on the offensive glass (+10 on the series), while forcing Philadelphia into fifty-four turnovers (+16), parlaying into a 34-point advantage in points off turnovers, including a +35 margin in the last two games alone. Nurse’s troops have done a much better job of limiting the Sixers’ opportunity in transition, while at the same time maximizing their own; after being outscored 51-20 in Games One and Two, the flipped the script north of the border (34-14), including a 21-10 edge in Game Four. Granted, this shouldn’t’ come as much of a surprise, for the Raptors beat their division rival in three of their four meetings during the regular season and were indeed a trendy pick to upset them coming into these playoffs. Furthermore, they’ve done an outstanding job of neutralizing James Harden (more on him shortly) throughout this series, and if it weren’t for an overtime game-winning triple from Joel Embiid (we’ll get to him too), then this matchup could very well be tied at two games apiece. The problem though comes back to injuries, and in what is looking like a war of attrition these dinosaurs are clearly losing. Barnes health aside, (veteran Guard) Fred VanVleet (20.3 PTS, 40.3% FG, 37.7% 3FG, 87.4% FT, 4.4 REB, 6.7 AST, 1.7 STL, 0.5 BLK, 17.3 PER) was forced off the hardwood midway through Saturday’s contest with knee and hip maladies. As tough as they come, the first-time All-Star was so furious that he had to leave the court that he literally tore half of his jersey en route to the locker room. Nurse has stated that the 28-year-old is officially listed as day-to-day, though it’s anyone’s guess as to just how effective he’ll be if he does try to gut it out. So, with VanVleet and Barnes in doubt, ballhandling duties will likely fall to (emerging young Guard) Gary Trent Jr. (18.3 PTS, 41.4% FG, 38.3% 3FG, 85.3% FT, 2.7 REB, 2.0 AST, 1.7 STL, 14.7 PER) who has been hampered with an illness late, leaving an offense often starved for creativity without many capable facilitators. In the meantime, Toronto must rely upon the same defensive prowess that completely vexed the Sixers in Game Four’s 110-102 victory. The hosts relegated the visitors to 42.5% shooting on the afternoon, including 6-of-18 shooting (33.3%) in the final period, in which Philadelphia went scoreless for over four minutes and without a field goal for over five. For the second consecutive game, they manufactured over twenty points via turnovers (22), and for the first time in the series they scored over twenty points in transition. (Versatile Forward) Pascal Siakam () exploded for a game high THIRTY-FOUR points on an efficient 10-of-19 shooting (52.6%), netting 13-of-15 free-throws (86.7%), along with eight rebounds, five assists, and two blocks. Trent added twenty-four points on 8-of-20 shooting (40.0%), while (journeyman Forward) Thaddeus Young (6.3 PTS, 46.5% FG, 39.5% 3FG, 48.1% FT, 4.4 REB, 1.7 AST, 1.2 STL, 15.8 PER) contributed with thirteen points, five rebounds, five assists, and three steals off the bench. Oh, and perhaps the biggest factor in this victory came from the charity stripe, where the Raptors were 28-of-35 (80.0%) and outscored Philly by seven points, which is in stark contrast to the previous three games in which they were bested in that department by TWENTY-NINE points, or in other words, 9.6 points per game. If Toronto can in fact replicate those advantages, then there is no reason to think that this series can’t shift back to Scotiabank Arena, particularly when you consider the injury pendulum swinging out of the Sixers’ favor…
Meanwhile, say what you will about these 76ers (51-31, 4th in Eastern Conference), but when or lose they are rarely ever boring. Coming into these playoffs, you would have been hard-pressed to find a team facing more pressure than Philadelphia with three of their most prominent figures shouldering the load of their own individual expectations. First and foremost, (All-NBA Center) Joel Embiid (30.6 PTS, 49.9% FG, 37.1% 3FG, 81.4% FT, 11.7 REB, 4.2 AST, 1.1 STL, 1.5 BLK, 31.2 PER) finished a regular season in which he will in all likelihood be named the NBA’s Most Valuable Player within the week, logging career-highs in a slew of categories including points (30.6), three-pointers (93), free-throws (654), assists (4.2), steals (1.1), and PER (31.2). Furthermore, he became the first Center since (Hall of Famer) Shaquille O’Neal (2000) to lead the league in scoring, while also finishing first in both free-throws (654) and attempts (803). However, the 28-year-old has never advanced past the Conference Semifinals, with last summer’s collapse to the upstart Hawks still fresh in the minds of he and his teammates. And this brings us to (Head Coach) Doc Rivers. Named to the NBA’s All-75 addendum that featured fifteen of its greatest coaches, the 60-year-old has won 1,043 games over the course of his venerable coaching career but has become just as synonymous with inexplicable postseason collapses as he is with that NBA title that he won with the Celtics in 2008. 100-54 in two seasons with the Sixers, there have been rumors that Rivers could indeed be fired if his charges suffer from another premature exit. Last (but surely not least) is (All-NBA Guard) James Harden (21.0 PTS, 40.2% FG, 32.6% 3FG, 89.2% FT, 7.1 REB, 10.5 AST, 1.2 STL 21.8 PER), who may very well be facing the most pressure of any single individual in these playoffs. Arriving midseason after essentially forcing a trade out of Brooklyn following a drama-filled first half of the campaign, (President of Basketball Ops) Daryl Morey moved heaven and earth to acquire the 2017-2018 MVP, whom he whom he presided over as General Manager of the Rockets. Mired in their own prolonged drama centering around (All-Star Guard) Ben Simmons, who refused to play for the team ever again following a rather dreadful postseason exit, Morey relented dealing him away for pennies on the dollar for months, patiently waiting for an opportunity to land a superstar caliber player. The rest as they say, is history; in twenty-one games with the 76ers, Harden has averaged 21.0 points on 40.2% shooting from the field, including 32.6% from beyond the arc, along with 7.1 rebounds, 105 assists, and 1.2 steals. He’s had quite the effect on his new teammates on both ends of the hardwood, settling into more of a playmaker role offensively, though there have been persistent questions about his conditioning and his lack of explosion, for one play he’ll blow by a defender, and then the next he’s relegated to trying to draw a foul. Furthermore, his apathy on the defensive end is slowly becoming a liability for what was one of the better units in that regard, but then again, this is precisely the player that Morey was getting. On his third team in less than three years and turning 33-years old in August, Harden needs to show up in these playoffs after a plethora of head scratching performances in postseasons past. So, how have these three gentlemen fared in this series, you ask? Well, Embiid has performed very well against a team that has defended him better than any other team in the Association, averaging 26.0 points on 49.3% shooting, along with 11.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists, while frequently venturing to the charity stripe, knocking down 34-of-43 attempts (79.1%), and burying that clutch three-pointer in overtime of Game Three to give his team that aforementioned 3-0 edge. However, news broke that the Cameroon international suffered a torn ligament in his right thumb at some point in that affair, with team doctors proclaiming that while it can’t get worse, it’s something that he’ll have to play through for the remainder of the postseason. Needless to say, this turn of events bears watching, for the big fella looked far from himself in Game Four, finishing with twenty-one points on 7-of-16 shooting (43.8%), eight rebounds, three assists, and a team-high FIVE turnovers. This is also significant for the fact that Harden hasn’t performed particularly well either in this series, with Toronto’s defense draped around him like a blanket; in four games, the three-time Scoring Champion has been held to a relatively pedestrian 19.3 points on 37.5% shooting, including 9-of-23 from downtown (39.1%), along with 5.5 rebounds, 9.8 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.5 blocks, though also 3.2 turnovers. Again, those who feel that the bearded one has indeed lost a step are no doubt running circles around their tablets, as Harden has struggled mightily to create separation against the Raptors’ defenders, oftentimes settling for that step-back jumper or waiting for the officials to bail him out and sed him to the stripe. Like Embiid, he has enjoyed a lot of time at the free-throw line, netting 26-of-31 attempts (83.9%), which has weighed HEAVILY on the outcome of these games; Philadelphia led the league in free-throws made (19.6) and percentage (82.1%), along with free-throw/field goal attempt ratio (.232), and that was with playing half of the campaign without Harden. Furthermore, through four games they have attempted twenty-one more singles than their opponent and earning a 22-point advantage in makes, while Embiid and Harden alone have nailed nine fewer than Toronto has as a team. While we expect the 76ers to receive a boost in returning to Wells Fargo Center, particularly with (defensive dynamo) Matisse Thybuille (5.7 PTS, 50.0% FG, 31.3% 3FG, 79.1% FT, 2.3 REB, 1.1 AST, 1.7 STL, 1.1 BLK, 11.2 PER) returning after being prohibited from traveling north of the border due to COVID vaccination regulations, the time is now for Harden to make good on the investment that Morey and the franchise made in him. From the looks of things, it doesn’t appear that Embiid’s thumb is going to miraculously get better over the course of these playoffs, making it all the more imperative that he step up and be the superstar that everyone perceives him to be. For if he continues to struggle and this series drags on any further, the faithful in the City of Brotherly Love will almost certainly turn against him, and the ensuing offseason and his looming max extension will be a whole new saga for the Sixers.