7:00 PM EST, NBA TV – Line: Heat -7, Over/Under: 217.5
As one team nears passage to the second round of the playoffs, another looks to stave off elimination, as the fading Atlanta Hawks battle the top-seeded Miami Heat in Game Five of their First Round Series from FTX Arena in Miami, Florida. After shocking many in advancing all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals last summer, it’s safe to say that the Hawks (43-39, 9th in Eastern Conference) have been nothing short of a massive letdown a year later. Twelve months ago, these young upstarts were ahead of the curve and playing with house money, upsetting both the Knicks and Sixers before giving the (eventual NBA Champion) Bucks everything they could handle. This season though, they were forced to scrap their way into the play-in tournament, where their reward for advancing was a date with the Heat, who handled them with ease during their four meetings in the regular season. So, what in the name of Dikembe Mutombo has happened to Atlanta, you ask? Well, in hindsight it appears that these dirty birds very much caught lightning in a bottle and in turn overestimated what they had. Indeed, the team’s fortunes turned midseason after firing (the incumbent) Lloyd Pierce and elevating Nate McMillan to Head Coach, with his charges going 27-11 under his watch en route to capturing the fifth seed in the East. Following their surprise postseason run, McMillan was quickly confirmed as the full-time Head Coach, while (General Manager) Travis Schlenk got to work in keeping his talent in house, signing (versatile Forward) John Collins (16.2 PTS, 52.6% FG, 36.4% 3FG, 79.3% FT, 7.8 REB, 1.8 AST, 0.6 STL, 1.0 BLK, 18.7 PER) to a five-year, max deal worth roughly $125 million. After all, internal growth played a huge role in their improvement last season, so keeping the band together couldn’t possibly backfire, right? Well… it could, and it has. To be fair, the Hawks’ regression isn’t all their fault, for it certainly hasn’t helped them that the rest of the East has improved exponentially; after suffering through a down year, both Miami and Boston have returned to prominence, while the Bulls and 76ers added significant pieces, and the Bucks, well, they’re still every bit the world champions. Atlanta has also been unfortunate in the fact that many of those players who contributed greatly during their run last year, have struggled to make that same impact, with health being the primary culprit. Collins and (Sixth Man extraordinaire) Bogdan Bogdanovic (15.1 PTS, 43.1% FG, 36.8% 3FG, 84.3% FT, 4.0 REB, 3.1 AST, 1.1 STL, 15.4 PER) missed twenty-eighty and nineteen games with respective ailments, while (former Fourth Overall Pick) De’Andre Hunter (13.4 PTS, 44.2% FG, 37.9% 3FG, 76.5% FT, 3.3 REB, 1.3 AST, 0.7 STL, 10.6 PER) missed twenty-nine of his own due to a lingering knee injury from the previous campaign. Furthermore, the injury bug has lingered into these playoffs, with Collins continuing to fight through foot and finger maladies, and Bogdanovic questionable for tonight’s affair with a bulky knee, while (veteran Center) Clint Capela (11.3 PT, 61.3% FG, 47.3% FT 11.9 REB, 1.2 AST, 0.7 STL, 1.3 BLK, 21.4 PER) suffered a hyperextended right knee in garbage time of Game One and has yet to appear again in this series. Simply put, these are a LOT of losses for McMillan to deal with, particularly against a savvy group like the Heat, who are adept at exploiting their opponent’s weaknesses. And with that said, these birds will once again live and die on the talents of (All-Star Guard) Trae Young (28.4 PTS, 46.0% FG, 38.2% 3FG, 90.4% FT, 3.7 REB, 9.7 AST, 0.9 STL, 25.4 PER). After emerging into a full-blown superstar last season and reveling in his villainy during the playoffs, the 23-year-old has been as advertised this season, posting career-highs in field goal percentage (46.0%), three-point percentage (38.2%), free-throw percentage (90.4%), assists (9.7), and PER (25.4), oftentimes carrying a group that was rarely afforded the luxury of being at full strength. However, that approach has been very much a double-edged sword for Atlanta, who has relied TOO MUCH on their young gun, and that has never been more apparent than in this series; through four games, Young has struggled MIGHTILY against the Heat’s staunch defense, averaging just 16.5 points on a dismal 35.1% shooting from the field, including 7-of-33 from beyond the arc (21.2%), with as many turnovers as assists (24). Games One (8 points) and Four (9 points) were particularly dreadful for the sharpshooter, who netted only 4-of-23 attempts from the field (17.3%) and 3-of-17 from downtown (17.6%), with eleven turnovers opposed to nine assists. For those inquiring minds that would like to know, Young & Co were bested by twenty-four points in each of those matchups. A major reason for his struggles is that this team plays too slow, rarely taking advantage of getting easier looks in transition, which is perplexing given that they are not an old group by any means. Granted, McMillan has always favored a more methodical approach, but given the rash of injuries that they’ve sustained, all he’s done is make it that much easier for Miami to target his most prolific weapon. Atlanta operated at the tenth-slowest pace in the NBA this season (97.7 possessions per 48 minutes) and ranked DEAD-LAST in fast break points (10.0), which is simply outrageous. In this series they’ve amassed just TWENTY-SIX fastbreak points in four games, with half of that total coming in Game Two’s 115-105 defeat. Hell, they were held to ZERO in Sunday night’s 110-86 drubbing at State Farm Arena, which may seem like a typo at first glance, though we assure you it’s not. At this point, it’s in all likelihood too late for the Hawks to turn things around in this series, particularly against the Heat, who are too disciplined to make the necessary mistakes to spark a comeback. Moving forward, whether or not their campaign ends tonight or later this week, this is a franchise that must take a long look in the mirror and assess where they are and what they need to sustain success. Pairing Young with a legitimate running mate should be priority no. one for Schlenk & Co, while perhaps finding a more offensive-minded coach to replace McMillan if they choose to go in that direction. Indeed, standing pat hurt Atlanta this year, and the mandate will be finding reinforcements for their young star, or else they could find themselves in an even tougher spot as Young nears the end of his rookie contract…
Meanwhile, after effectively taking a flier on last season, the Heat (53-29, 1st in Eastern Conference) are hellbent on finishing their business and returning to the NBA Finals, which is where their run ended eighteen months ago in the Bubble. COVID-19, injuries, and fatigue derailed their prospects last summer, only for Miami to return with a vengeance this season, landing that coveted top seed in what has proven to be a LOADED Eastern Conference. And with that said, (Head Coach) Erick Spoelstra’s charges are wasting NO time with the Hawks, proving that they are indeed worthy of their top-billing. So, let’s take a moment to run down the numbers, shall we? Through four games, they’ve averaged a whopping 112.5 points on 46.8% shooting from the field, outscoring their opponent by a margin of 14.2 points. Basically, they’ve been the anti-Hawks; offensively, they’ve had no problems making it rain from the perimeter, shooting 36.6% and edging Atlanta by thirty points on threes, while committing moving the basketball far more fluidly with 27.0 assists in comparison to 12.2 turnovers, leading to advantages of +30 and +14 in those two departments. Furthermore, it certainly helps that their superstar has played like a superstar, for (All-Star Guard) Jimmy Butler (21.4 PTS, 48.0% FG, 23.3% 3FG, 87.0% FT, 5.9 REB, 5.7 AST, 1.6 STL, 0.5 BLK, 23.6 PER) has been nothing short of impressive in this series. Is there a more appropriate marriage between club and player than the Heat and Butler? The six-time All-Star has remained a consistent force on both ends of the hardwood, averaging 30.5 points on a robust 54.3% shooting from the field, including 7-of-16 from beyond the arc (43.8%), along with 7.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.8 steals through the first four games of this matchup. He’s also spearheaded Miami’s effort at the charity stripe, accounting for thirty-four of their eighty-five free-throws attempts and twenty-seven of their sixty-seven makes thus far. As consistent as they come, Butler has been on a mission against these Hawks, dropping a playoff career-high FORTY-FIVE points on 15-of-25 shooting (60.0%) in Game Two, while pouring in another THIRTY-SIX points in Game Four, while calmly netting 11-of-12 free-throws in each contest. Of course, the Heat learned their lesson from last year’s regression, hitting the market and surrounding their leading man with experienced, like-minded supporting actors; (Point Guard) Kyle Lowry (13.4 PTS, 44.0% FG, 37.7% 3FG, 85.1% FT, 7.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 15.0 PER), (defensive stopper) P.J. Tucker (7.6 PTS, 48.4% FG, 41.5% 3FG, 73.8% FT, 5.5 REB, 2.1 AST, 0.8 STL, 11.3 PER), and (versatile Forward) Markieff Morris (76 PTS, 47.4% FG, 33.3% 3FG, 88.9% FT, 2.6 REB, 1.4 AST, 10.9 PER) offer that in spades, with each player having performed a valuable role for the last three NBA Champions, and fitting Miami’s unique culture PERFECTLY. Fresh off his championship run with Milwaukee, Tucker has already proven his value against Atlanta, offering 11.0 points off the bench and knocking down 8-of-13 three-pointers, all the while targeting the aforementioned Young on the offensive end, deliberately bullying the smaller Guard in the post. Granted, Spoelstra has also seen a good deal of internal growth as well, though that shouldn’t come as a surprise for anyone familiar with the franchise, which has long been one of the best in the Association at developing their talent. (Sixth Man extraordinaire) Tyler Herro (20.7 PTS, 44.7% FG, 39.9% 3FG, 86.8% FT, 5.0 REB, 4.0 AST, 0.7 STL, 16.2 PER) emerged as a rookie stud during their run through the Bubble, and after dealing with injuries/COVID last season has made a sizable leap in this, his third season with the club; the 22-year-old went from being on the trade block to becoming an indispensable part of Spoelstra’s rotation, logging career-highs in a slew of categories including points (20.7), field goal percentage (44.7%), three-point percentage (39.9%), and assists (4.0), all the while becoming the first sixth man since the early 1990s to average over twenty points per game. (Young sharpshooter) Duncan Robinson (10.9 PTS, 39.9% FG, 37.2% 3FG, 83.6% FT, 2.6 REB, 1.6 AST, 0.5 STL, 10.6 PER) is another product of their system, torching the Hawks for TWETNY-SEVEN points on a torrid 9-of-10 shooting (90.0%), including 8-of-9 from beyond the arc (88.9%) in Game One’s 24-point blowout victory. And then there is (unheralded Swingman) Max Strus (10.6 PTS, 44.1% FG, 41.0% 3FG, 79.2% FT, 3.0 REB, 1.4 AST, 12.7 PER), who has grown into his role as a dead-eye sniper, posting 13.8 points in four starts thus far, which have been necessitated by the absence of the aforementioned Lowry, who is expected to miss his second straight game nursing a tender left hamstring. With this series well in hand, it would behoove Spoelstra to give the 36-year-old all the time he needs to get healthy, for he will be counting on the six-time All-Star’s experience as they progress through the postseason. Don’t be surprised if we get to see more of (oft-injured Guard) Victor Oladipo (12.4 PTS, 47.9% FG, 41.7% 3FG, 73.7% FT, 2.9 REB, 3.5 AST, 0.6 STL, 16.8 PER) tonight; after being acquired via trade in March of 2021, the two-time All-Star underwent surgery to repair a torn quadriceps a month later, remaining inactive for the first sixty-five games of this season before returning in early March. The 2017-2018 Most Improved Player slowly worked his way back into the rotation before exploding for FORTY points in the season finale, though sat out the first three games of this season before totaling six points on just 3-of-10 shooting (30.0%) in roughly twenty-three minutes of action in Game Four. One of the better two-way players in the NBA prior to his rash of injuries, we seriously wonder if Spoelstra hasn’t been saving the 29-year-old for the playoffs, which is a gamble that could pay off handsomely down the road.