1:00 PM EST, ABC – Line: Celtics -4.5, Over/Under: 217.5
The wheat separates itself from the chafe as the NBA Playoffs progress to the second round, as the (reigning champion) Milwaukee Bucks face off against the surging Boston Celtics in Game One of this Eastern Conference Semifinal from TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. For the fourth consecutive year, the Bucks (51-31, 3rd in Eastern Conference) have advanced to the second round of the postseason, and it’s ironic that they’ll be matched up with the team that they finished with an identical record with, for it was the FIFTH tiebreaker (conference record) that decided which side would be the higher seed. And that’s how close it was between Milwaukee and Boston, who despite splitting their four meetings this season have crossed paths just once since Christmas, a narrow 117-113 victory for the deer. Their latest encounter came just under a month ago, as (Head Coach) Mike Budenholzer’s charges outlasted the Celtics in a 127-121 shootout at Fiserv Forum; clinging to a 69-59 lead at halftime, the hosts went on to shoot 50.5% from the field and created a wealth of extra opportunities for themselves via their work on the offensive glass (14 rebounds) and in forcing sixteen turnovers, parlaying into twenty-two points, including a 19-9 edge in transition. (Two-time MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.9 PTS, 55.3% FG, 29.3% 3FG, 72.2% FT, 11.6 REB, 5.8 AST, 1.1 STL, 1.4 BLK, 32.1 PER) led the team with twenty-nine points on 11-of-21 shooting (52.4%) and 7-of-10 from the charity stripe (70.0%), along with eleven rebounds, five assists, and a pair of steals, while (All-Star Guard) Jrue Holiday (18.3 PTS, 50.1% FG, 41.1% 3FG, 76.1% FT, 4.5 REB, 6.8 AST, 1.6 STL,19.8 PER) matched that point total on an efficient 10-of-19 shooting (52.6%), including 4-of-9 from beyond the arc (44.4%), and eight rebounds and assists apiece. Furthermore, (veteran Center) Brook Lopez (12.4 PTS, 46.6% FG, 35.8% 3FG, 87.0% FT, 4.1 REB, 0.5 AST, 0.6 STL, 1.2 BLK, 16.0 PER), added fifteen points and seven rebounds in his comeback from a back injury that had sidelined him for nearly five months, while (versatile Forward) Bobby Portis (14.6 PTS, 47.9% FG, 39.3% 3FG, 75.2% FT, 9.1 REB, 1.2 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.7 BLK, 17.7 PER), who absolutely thrived in his absence, chipped in with seventeen points on 7-of-11 shooting (63.6%) and 3-of-4 from downtown (75.0%). Though this was clearly the most recent meeting between these two teams, it’s unfortunately NOT the most relevant for the simple fact that the Bucks will be without one of the biggest weapons in their arsenal, namely (All-Star Swingman) Khris Middleton (20.1 PTS, 44.3% FG, 37.3% 3FG, 89.0% FT, 5.4 REB, 5.4 AST, 1.2 STL, 18.1 PER). The 30-year-old went down in Game Two of their First Round Series with the Bulls, spraining his right MCL, and has already been pronounced out of action for this affair with the Celtics. Needless to say, this is a BIG blow to Milwaukee’s fortunes in this series and moving forward. The lithe 6′-7″ swingman is a perfect fit for Budenholzer’s system, possessing the size and length to shoot over smaller opponents while also proving adept at taking them into the paint, while his defense on the perimeter has long been one of his most underrated assets. Granted, the deer appeared to be fine without him against Chicago, hammering their division rivals by a combined FORTY points in Games Three through Five, but one would have to figure that facing Boston without the veteran, who just so happens to be their second-leading scorer, is another matter altogether. In the previous meeting in early April, Middleton totaled twenty-two points on 9-of-18 shooting (50.0%), and 3-of-8 from three (37.5%), with eight rebounds, nine assists, and a pair of steals, highlighting his importance to the rotation. When Antetokounmpo is being doubled, it’s the three-time All-Star who oftentimes takes matters into his own hands, whether it’s creating for himself or his teammates. Furthermore, he would have also been charged with defending Jayson Tatum (much more on him shortly), who did not participate in that aforementioned matchup due to injury. So, what is Budenholzer to do without Middleton, you ask? Well, fortunately for the Bucks, they’ve grown accustomed to playing without one (or more) of their stars. After winning their first Larry O’Brien trophy in fifty years, those three stars hopped on a plane to compete in the Summer Olympics, altogether leading to a second consecutive abridged offseason for the team, and didn’t spend much time together on the hardwood throughout the first half of the campaign as a result; Milwaukee’s big three featured together in just TWENTY of the team’s first FIFTY games this season, but finished the regular season making twenty-five starts together over the final thirty-two games, in which the club has gone a stellar 19-6 with them on the court and 22-10 overall. During that period, they were also without the aforementioned Lopez, affording the opportunity for other members of the supporting cast to step up; Portis flourished with career-highs in minutes (28.2), scoring (14.6), three-pointers (133), and rebounds (9.1), while (sparkplug Guard) Greyson Allen (11.1 PTS, 44.8% FG, 40.9% 3FG, 86.5% FT, 3.4 REB, 1.5 AST, 0.7 STL, 12.7 PER) erupted in Game Four in Chicago, pouring in TWENTY-SEVEN points on a stellar 10-of-12 shooting (83.3%) and 6-of-7 from long range (85.7%) in just under twenty-nine minutes off the bench. And at the end of the day, there is still Antetokounmpo in their corner, which has proven to be the trump card of all trump cards in the playoffs. After winning back-to-back MVP awards along with Defensive Player of the Year honors, the Greek international added an NBA Title and Finals MVP trophy to his growing showcase and doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon. Against the Bulls, the 27-year-old was clearly in his bag, averaging 28.6 points on 56.8% shooting, along with 13.4 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.4 blocks over the course of five games, while spearheading a defense that had relegated their opponent to a miserable offensive showing, posting a scant 95.2 points on 40.4% shooting, including 28.3% from the perimeter, and bludgeoning them on the glass by a margin of 7.8 boards per game. Even without Middleton, Milwaukee’s size and length are a massive challenge on the defensive end, particularly as a series progresses, with their rebounding and ability to get their hands on loose balls creating a wealth of opportunities in transition. Keep an eye on turnovers in this series, because if the deer are able to harass the Celtics into mistakes, then that means that they’re likely exploiting them, for few teams have proven to be more adept at turning turnovers into points.
Meanwhile, there has been no team in these playoffs that has been more impressive than the Celtics (51-31, 2nd in Eastern Conference) and there has been no single player that has been more impressive than (All-Star Swingmen) Jayson Tatum (26.9 PTS, 45.3% FG, 35.3% 3FG, 85.3% FT, 8.0 REB, 4.4 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.6 BLK, 21.8 PER), who continues his ascension into superstardom. This time last year, Boston was left licking their wounds as they were unceremoniously eliminated in five games against the Nets, ending a campaign that mired by fatigue, injuries, and COVID. As a result, the franchise entered into what can only be described as a “soft” rebuild, as (longtime Basketball Czar) Danny Ainge stepped down from his post, replaced by (Head Coach) Brad Stevens, who ascended into his vacant seat within the organization’s hierarchy. Replacing Stevens would eventually be Ime Udoka, who arrived after years of leaning under the venerable Gregg Popovich and serving as the aforementioned Nash’s chief lieutenant last year in the Big Apple. While the hire was applauded around the league, Udoka’s tenure did not start smoothly; the Celtics were a middling 17-19 by the end of the December, due in large part to an unsettled rotation, as many of the new pieces that were imported over the summer failed to find their footing under the new regime. And it’s with that said that the likes of Dennis Schroder and Josh Richardson were quickly shipped out of Beantown in favor of (veteran Guard) Derrick White (11.0 PTS, 40.9% FG, 30.6% 3FG, 85.3% FT, 3.4 REB, 3.5 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.6 BLK, 12.9 PER) and the return of (Backup Center) Daniel Theis (7.9 PTS, 59.8% FG, 35.7% 3FG, 68.8% FT, 4.7 REB, 1.0 AST, 0.7 BLK, 17.0 PER), with both proving to be a seamless for fit in Udoka’s system. Furthermore, the return of (All-Star Forward) Al Horford (10.2 PTS, 46.7% FG, 33.6% 3FG, 84.2% FT, 7.7 REB, 3.4 AST, 0.7 STL, 1.3 BLK, 16.7 PER) has been nothing short of a boon for the Celtics, with his intelligence and positioning on both ends of the hardwood paying rich dividends. Furthermore, the return of these two wise men helped facilitate the growth of (emerging Center) Robert Williams (10.0 PTS, 73.6% FG, 72.2% FT, 9.6 REB, 2.0 AST, 0.9 STL, 2.2 BLK, 22.1 PER), who has flourished this season, posting career-highs in a slew of categories including points (10.0), field goal percentage (73.6%), rebounds (9.6), assists (2.0), steals (0.9), blocks (2.2), and PER (22.1). Combined with the presence of (newly-minted Defensive Player of the Year) Marcus Smart (21.1 PTS, 41.8% FG, 33.1% 3FG, 79.3% FT, 3.8 REB, 5.9 AST, 1.7 STL, 13.6 PER), this infusion of size, length, and smarts has morphed Boston into a much larger team than they were over the last two years, while also letting them switch defensively, which has been the biggest component of their turn since the new year; simply put, everything changed as the calendar transitioned to 2022, as Udoka’s troops went on an absolute tear, winning THIRTY-FOUR of their final forty-six games. During this stretch, they’ve evolved into a DOMINANT defensive force, relegating opponents to a scant 102.5 points per game on 42.9% shooting from the field, including 33.5% from beyond the arc, and 21.5 assists in comparison to forcing 12.8 turnovers, all the while owning a +3.8 advantage on the glass. And then there is Tatum, who as we stated earlier has once again leveled up, becoming a much more well-rounded player in this, his fifth season in the NBA. Though he’s long been a lethal scorer from anywhere on the court, the 23-year-old posted career-highs in two-point percentage (52.4%), free-throws made (400) and attempted (469), rebounds (8.0) and assists (4.4), as he continues to evolve as a playmaker on both ends of the hardwood. And if you require further proof of his rise to power, just check out his work in the Celtics’ sweep of the Nets last week. Though the series was a lot closer than the outcome would lead you to believe (the four games were decided by a total of eighteen points), Tatum proved to be the difference in a matchup littered with superstars such as Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving; the three-time All-Star erupted for 29.5 points on 45.6% shooting, including 13-of-31 from beyond the arc (41.9%), along with 33-of-38 from the charity stripe (86.8%), 4.5 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 1.8 steals, highlighted by the game-winning layup on Easter Sunday and late surges in the clutch of Games Two and Three to outduel the two-time Finals MVP, who was in turn thoroughly frustrated by Boston’s defense. Indeed, it’s rare that we’ve seen a talent such as Durant struggle so much against any particular opponent, though that was nonetheless the case throughout those four games, as the four-time scoring champion could muster just 38.6% shooting and 7-of-21 from three (33.3%), with nearly as many turnovers (21) as assists (25). Moving on, we’ll see how Udoka & Co devise a way to slow down the aforementioned Antetokounmpo, who as were covered earlier, has had his way with the Celtics this season. In his earlier years in the Association, the Greek Freak struggled against Boston’s defensive measures, particularly against Horford, whose strength and smarts would frustrate the future MVP. However, those days appear to be long gone, for in their last seventeen encounters (including the playoffs), he’s run rampant to the tune of 27.8 points on 56.1% shooting, along with 11.2 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, while taking residence at the stripe where he’s knocked down nearly eight free-throws per game (7.7). From Milwaukee’s perspective, we discussed how turnovers and their ability to exploit them will be a key moving forward, but from Boston’s point of view, they’re going to need to take advantage of the open three-pointers that they will receive. It’s no secret that the Bucks’ defensive scheme prioritizes closing down the paint and defending the rim, which in turn allows a wealth of looks from the perimeter, for no team in the NBA allowed more attempts (40.6) and makes (14.5) from beyond the arc this season. The Celtics in turn, ranked ninth in attempts (37.1) and eighth in makes (13.2), netting a middling 35.6% of their treys (14th Overall), and in their four meetings with the reigning champs, outscored them by an average margin of 12.6 points in that regard. Simply put, in what has long been characterized as a make or miss league, this team MUST make a high percentage of the threes that they’re to be afforded, lest those long rebounds turn into yet another catalyst for the deer to start their fast break.