
7:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Celtics -5.5, Over/Under: 214.5

The heavyweight slugfest continues in this Eastern Conference Semifinal, as the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics get set to break the deadlock in Game Five of their series as the scene shifts back TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. As these teams stand squared away with four games in the books, this second round matchup has boiled down to a three-game series, with the Bucks (51-31, 3rd in Eastern Conference) no doubt feeling a sense of deja vu at this juncture of the postseason. It was in this particular round of the postseason last summer in which they survived what turned out to be their toughest test, as Milwaukee outlasted Brooklyn in an affair that went the distance, with the deer ultimately advancing on the strength of a gritty overtime victory in Game Seven in the Big Apple. Of course, the experience of that bloodbath hardened (Head Coach) Mike Budenholzer’s troops en route to securing their first NBA Championship in FIFTY years, as they overcame an early 0-2 hole to the Suns in the Finals just as they did in that aforementioned Semifinal versus the Nets. While this particular series with the Celtics has played out a bit differently, it has nonetheless served as the litmus test for the defending champions, who have traded blows with an opponent that has amassed the best record in the Association since the turn of the new year. So, what have we learned through the first four games of this affair, you ask? Well, even without the services of (All-Star Swingman) Khris Middleton (20.1 PTS, 44.3% FG, 37.3% 3FG, 89.0% FT, 5.4 REB, 5.4 AST, 1.2 STL, 18.1 PER), the Bucks have proven more than capable of standing toe-to-toe with the Celtics; the veteran Forward suffered a sprained MCL in Game Two of the previous series against the Bulls and has yet to return to the hardwood, with Budenholzer pronouncing that the 30-year-old would remain inactive for the duration of the battle. With that said, it’s hard to argue that Milwaukee couldn’t benefit from his presence against one of the best defensive sides in the league; the deer have averaged just 99.5 points on 42.1% shooting from the field, including a miserable 29.2% of their attempts from beyond the arc, which is the area where Middleton’s absence is felt the most. A career 39.2% three-point shooter, the lithe 6′-7″ wing is a perfect fit for Budenholzer’s system, leading the team in both treys attempted (434) and made (162), while possessing the size and length to shoot over smaller opponents while also proving adept at taking them into the paint, with his defense on the perimeter serving as one of his most underrated assets. Of course, having (two-time MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.9 PTS, 55.3% FG, 29.3% 3FG, 72.2% FT, 11.6 REB, 5.8 AST, 1.1 STL, 1.4 BLK, 32.1 PER) has helped make up for that absence, with the reigning Finals MVP fighting through Broston’s defense to average 32.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 8.0 assists despite shooting just 43.9% from the field, 12.5% from downtown, and 60.5% from the charity stripe. After being held below thirty points in the first two games in Beantown, the Greece international appears to be figuring out what his opponent is doing to him, for in the last two games at Fiserv Forum he has posted stat lines of 42/12/8/2/2 and most recently 34/18/5 in Monday night’s 116-108 loss. However, there is a rhetoric that Budenholzer is relying upon the Greek Freak too much, for after logging at least thirty-eight minutes in each of the first three contests, he topped forty-one in Game Four and looked visibly fatigued down the stretch. While absolutely nobody is questioning Antetokounmpo’s conditioning, this is where the supporting cast needs to step up; after enjoying their moments against Chicago, (versatile Forward) Bobby Portis (14.6 PTS, 47.9% FG, 39.3% 3FG, 75.2% FT, 9.1 REB, 1.2 AST, 0.7 STL, 0.7 BLK, 17.7 PER) and (sparkplug Guard) Greyson Allen (11.1 PTS, 44.8% FG, 40.9% 3FG, 86.5% FT, 3.4 REB, 1.5 AST, 0.7 STL, 12.7 PER) haven’t be close to as prominent in the Semifinal, with the latter struggling particular with just 5.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.8 assists in just under twenty-eight minutes per game. Allen mustered a meager seven points on 3-of-7 shooting (42.9%) and 1-of-4 (25.0%) in a starting role in Game Four, while Portis was relegated to just four points on 2-of-7 shooting (28.6%) in nearly fifteen minutes off the bench. With that said this series is tied at 2-2 after all, so it hasn’t been all doom and gloom for the Bucks, who continue to be arguably the best defensive team in the playoffs. The key here has been a healthy (veteran Center) Brook Lopez (12.4 PTS, 46.6% FG, 35.8% 3FG, 87.0% FT, 4.1 REB, 0.5 AST, 0.6 STL, 1.2 BLK, 16.0 PER), who missed virtually the entire regular season (67 games!!!) rehabbing from back surgery. Milwaukee ranked nineteenth in points allowed (112.1) and fourteenth in defensive rating (111.8) during the regular season, but in the postseason have rounded back into form in permitting just 99.0 points on 41.0% shooting thus far. The seven-footer brings a size and length to the rotation that had been lacking throughout the campaign, while also bringing the added benefit of being able to knock down corner treys (35.8%). With the big fella in the paint, Milwaukee has held Boston to 103.8 points on 41.8% shooting from the floor, while outrebounding them (4.7) to boot. Of course, the biggest issue continues to be the money ball, which Budenholzer’s scheme affords in volume. Basically, the Bucks are excellent at closing ranks and shutting down the painted area, and then securing the rebound and start their possession, relying on their size and length to get back out to the perimeter and close on shooters. However, this still leads towards a wealth of attempts from long-range, and if you’re fortunate enough to make them count, then odds are that you’re having a great day. No team allowed more three-pointers (14.5) and attempts (40.6) than these deer, and in this series alone they’ve been outscored by EIGHTY-FOUR points in that regard, parlaying to a 21.0-point difference per game. Furthermore, they relinquished TWENTY threes in Game Two (-57) and 14-of-37 (37.8%) on Monday night, where they were edged by fifteen points. At some point, Budenholzer’s charges are going to have close a bit harder on these shooters, even if it opens up the paint to a degree, for without Middleton in the rotation they are getting KILLED from downtown, necessitating adjustments.

Meanwhile, though this series is currently deadlocked at two games apiece, the consensus opinion is that the Celtics (51-31, 2nd in Eastern Conference) have been the better team if only by a small margin. After getting stunned in Game One (101-89), Boston has outscored Milwaukee 326-297, with only a controversial ending to Game Three (103-101) keeping them from holding a commanding 3-1 lead. So, what in the name of Bob Cousey has changed for the C’s, you ask? Well, in what has long been characterized as a make-or-miss league, (Head Coach) Ime Udoka’s troops started making shots, particularly from beyond the arc. After shooting a franchise playoff low 33.3% from the field in the opener, they’ve shot 47.5% and 50.0% in the two games that they’ve won and 44.6% in the last three overall. However, as we stated earlier, the biggest difference has come from the perimeter, where the Celtics have absolutely TORCHED the Bucks, netting 61-of-163 triples (37.4%) en route to a +84 advantage in that regard, and in those two victories alone they’ve held a 72-point advantage. We talked about Milwaukee’s penchant for affording threes ad nauseum, and Boston was certainly one of the more prolific three-point shooting sides in the NBA this year, ranking ninth in attempts (37.1) and eighth in makes (13.2), so this always figured to be a key matchup to watch in this series. However, they’ve also done an outstanding job of defending the deer, particularly the aforementioned Antetokounmpo, who has been forced to fight for everything that he’s earned thus far. Of course, defense became this team’s calling card once the calendar transitioned into 2022, as Udoka’s charges morphed into one of the best defensive units in the NBA; Since January 2nd, they relegated their opponents to a scant 102.5 points per game on 42.9% shooting from the field, including 33.5% from beyond the arc, and 21.5 assists in comparison to forcing 12.8 turnovers, all the while owning a +3.8 advantage on the glass. With the additions of (All-Star Forward) Al Horford (10.2 PTS, 46.7% FG, 33.6% 3FG, 84.2% FT, 7.7 REB, 3.4 AST, 0.7 STL, 1.3 BLK, 16.7 PER), (veteran Guard) Derrick White (11.0 PTS, 40.9% FG, 30.6% 3FG, 85.3% FT, 3.4 REB, 3.5 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.6 BLK, 12.9 PER), and (Backup Center) Daniel Theis (7.9 PTS, 59.8% FG, 35.7% 3FG, 68.8% FT, 4.7 REB, 1.0 AST, 0.7 BLK, 17.0 PER), coupled with the presence of (newly-minted Defensive Player of the Year) Marcus Smart (21.1 PTS, 41.8% FG, 33.1% 3FG, 79.3% FT, 3.8 REB, 5.9 AST, 1.7 STL, 13.6 PER), and the growth of (emerging Center) Robert Williams (10.0 PTS, 73.6% FG, 72.2% FT, 9.6 REB, 2.0 AST, 0.9 STL, 2.2 BLK, 22.1 PER), the Celtics became a much larger and physical team than they had been in the last few seasons thanks to this infusion of size, length, and smarts. And they’ve certainly leaned on their defensive prowess in this series, limiting the Bucks to just 42.1% shooting from the field and 29.2% from downtown, with Antetokounmpo in particular netting only 43.9% of his attempts overall. However, while the absence of the aforementioned Middleton has been one of the biggest storylines of this matchup, Boston has been without some of their most prominent figures at various points of the series. Indeed, it’s awfully ironic that their two victories came after news broke that there was a late scratch in the rotation; in Game Two, Smart was held out of action after sustaining a bruised calf muscle, while Williams was sidelined for Game Four with soreness in the same knee that shelved him for the final three weeks of the regular season. It says a lot about this group’s resilience in succeeding with a shorter rotation, but then again, that’s made possible when other players step up. In Game Two, (All-Star Swingman) Jaylen Brown (23.6 PTS, 47.3% FG, 35.8% 3FG, 75.8% FT, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 18.9 PER) erupted for thirty points on 11-of-18 shooting (61.1%), including 6-of-10 from beyond the arc (60.0%), along with six rebounds and assists apiece, and a pair of steals, pouring in SEVENTEEN points in the first quarter alone. In Monday night’s triumph, it was none other than Horford who put his team on his back, with the 35-year-old exploding for a playoff career-high THIRTY points on an efficient 11-of-14 shooting (78.6%), including 5-of-7 from downtown (71.4%), eight rebounds and three assists in the 116-108 thriller. Trailing 80-73 heading into the fourth quarter, the visitors took control in outscoring the hosts 43-28 over the final twelve minutes, ending the affair on a 24-14 run. The Celtics shot an insane 16-of-19 from the field (84.2%!!!), including 4-of-5 from three (80.0%), and 7-of-7 from the charity stripe (100.0%), while dishing out nine assists opposed to one turnover, with Horford totaling sixteen points on a perfect 6-of-6 shooting (100.0%), while (All-Star Swingman) Jayson Tatum (26.9 PTS, 45.3% FG, 35.3% 3FG, 85.3% FT, 8.0 REB, 4.4 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.6 BLK, 21.8 PER) accounted for twelve of his thirty points in the period. In the end, the visiting side continued to hold a strong advantage from the perimeter (+15), but managed to close the gap in the paint (-4), while edging Milwaukee in transition (+3). Tatum and Horford each scored thirty points, while Smart and Brown added eighteen apiece despite the latter being saddled with foul trouble throughout the night. And then there was the aforementioned White, who chipped in with a key eleven points, four rebounds, and three assists in over thirty-five minutes off the bench. Moving forward, tonight’s Game Five figures to be the deciding factor of this series, for in a historical sense, when a series is tied at two games apiece, the winner of Game Five has gone on to win said series 82.8% of the time. Granted, perhaps that shouldn’t apply to either of these franchises, for the Bucks managed to topple the Nets in that aforementioned epic last year after losing Game Five, while the Celtics lost their last series that fit those parameters, falling to the Cavaliers in the seventh game of the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals.