7:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: 76ers -2, Over/Under: 207
Chalk would be the most appropriate way to describe this Eastern Conference Final, as the home team has won all five games to this point, though the Miami Heat look to buck that trend tonight and close out the Philadelphia 76ers on the road in Game Six of this series from Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. One game away from advancing to their ninth Conference Final in franchise history, the Heat (53-29, 1st in Eastern Conference) entered these payoffs as the top seed in the East and have for all intents and purposes lived up to that billing thus far. In many ways, this postseason run has been all about taking care of unfinished business for Miami, who after advancing all the way to the NBA Finals during the Bubble, stumbled throughout the ensuing campaign thanks to fatigue, injuries, and COVID, en route to an unceremonious sweep in last summer’s First Round. Undoubtedly disappointed with that outcome, (Team President) Pat Riley and (Head Coach) Erik Spoelstra went to work reinforcing the roster, adding a mix of grizzled veterans, including the likes of Kyle Lowry (13.4 PTS, 44.0% FG, 37.7% 3FG, 85.1% FT, 7.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 15.0 PER), P.J. Tucker (7.6 PTS, 48.4% FG, 41.5% 3FG, 73.8% FT, 5.5 REB, 2.1 AST, 0.8 STL, 11.3 PER), and Markieff Morris (76 PTS, 47.4% FG, 33.3% 3FG, 88.9% FT, 2.6 REB, 1.4 AST, 10.9 PER), with each having played sizable roles in each of the three previous NBA Champions. Coupled with (All-Star Swingman) Jimmy Butler (21.4 PTS, 48.0% FG, 23.3% 3FG, 87.0% FT, 5.9 REB, 5.7 AST, 1.6 STL, 0.5 BLK, 23.6 PER) and the continued development of a number of young talents, the Heat returned to prominence in capturing the Southeast Division title along with the top seed in the conference, pitting them against last year’s playoff darling, the Hawks, whom they handled with ease in a Gentlemen’s Sweep (5 games). Indeed, Miami met little resistance against Atlanta, outscoring them by an average margin of 12.0 points and harassing them into nearly more turnovers (82) than assists (93). Taking care of their business in quick fashion afforded Spoelstra’s troops the luxury of rest before encountering the 76ers in this series, and it appears that the extra time off has benefitted them greatly given that this affair has been defined by injuries to star players. While their opponent was without their biggest weapon for the first two games, the Heat haven’t been able to rely upon that aforementioned triumvirate of veterans; Lowry has been hampered by a tender hamstring since the previous series, and has made just one appearance thus far, while Morris made his postseason debut with the club back in Game Four, before sitting out altogether in Tuesday night’s watershed 120-85 victory at FTX Arena. As they had in the previous two games on South Beach, the hosts utterly dominated this one, shooting a ridiculous 53.6% from the field, including 13-of-33 from beyond the arc (39.4%), while outrebounding the visitors (46-36) and forcing more turnovers (16) than assists (14), leading to twenty-three points via takeaways and a 15-6 advantage in transition. Furthermore, they HAMMERED Philadelphia in the paint (+20), marking the first time that they managed to do that once a certain ALL-NBA Center returned from injury (more on that shortly). Even without Lowry’s services, SEVEN different players scored in double-figures for the home side, led by Butler who totaled twenty-three points on an efficient 9-of-15 shooting (60.0%), along with nine rebounds and six assists. The 32-year-old has been the lone constant for the Heat in these playoffs, averaging 28.3 points per game on a healthy 53.8% shooting, including 36.8% from downtown, along with 7.6 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 2.2 steals, despite missing one game with a bulky knee. The concern though, though has been the supporting cast, particularly after the rest of the starting lineup could muster only 31.6 points on sub-40.0% shooting in the two losses in Philly. Thankfully, that was not the case on Tuesday night, for his teammates showed up in droves; developmental success stories, Max Strus (10.6 PTS, 44.1% FG, 41.0% 3FG, 79.2% FT, 3.0 REB, 1.4 AST, 12.7 PER) and Gabe Vincent (8.7 PTS, 41.7% FG, 36.8% 3FG, 81.5% FT, 1.9 REB, 3.1 AST, 0.9 STL, 10.6 PER) posted nineteen and fifteen points respectively, with the former drilling 4-of-10 treys (40.0%) and securing ten rebounds, while (newly-minted Sixth Man of the Year) Tyler Herro (20.7 PTS, 44.7% FG, 39.9% 3FG, 86.8% FT, 5.0 REB, 4.0 AST, 0.7 STL, 16.2 PER) and a revitalized Victor Oladipo (12.4 PTS, 47.9% FG, 41.7% 3FG, 73.7% FT, 2.9 REB, 3.5 AST, 0.6 STL, 16.8 PER) combined for twenty-three points, five rebounds, and six assists off the bench. Coming into this closeout opportunity, the Heat will be looking to improve upon their two dismal showings on the road, in which they struggled mightily on the offensive end of the hardwood; Spoelstra’s charges could muster just 93.5 points on 40.9% shooting from the field, including 21.5% from three, while dishing out a pedestrian 19.0 assists in comparison to committing 12.5 turnovers. The decline in three-point shooting has proven to be a major issue for Miami, who in those two contests shot a dreadful 14-of-65 and were outscored by eighteen points in that regard, opposed to netting 36-of-98 triples (36.7%), leading to a 39-point advantage in Games One, Two, and Five. Simply put, this is a MAJOR component of their offensive gameplan, for no team in the Association shot better from long-range than the Heat (37.9%), with nearly half of their overall field goal attempts (42.2%) being of that variety. Presented with the opportunity to close tonight, Spoelstra’s outfit are 5-3 in such games dating back to the 2016 playoffs, though they successfully eliminated the Hawks in their first opportunity to do so in the previous round of this postseason.
Meanwhile, it is officially a win or go home scenario for the 76ers (51-31, 4th in Eastern Conference), who threw all of the good will that they had built in Games Three (99-79) and Four (116-108) out of the window in an absolutely EMBARASSING performance in Game Five’s 120-85 blowout on South Beach. This one started rough early for the visitors, who were outscored 31-19 in the first quarter, in which they were bested by fifteen points from beyond the arc and committed as many turnovers (4) as assists. While the two teams traded blows over the course of the next two periods, the final stanza is where the visitors were officially put to rest; lifeless would be an appropriate way to describe their effort, as Philadelphia netted a dreadful 8-of-27 attempts from the field (29.6%) and 1-of-9 from downtown (11.1%), en route to being outscored 39-19. In the end, A LOT went wrong for the visitors, prompting (Head Coach) Doc Rivers to state that he should simply burn the game film. In the end, the Sixers shot a miserable 36.5% overall, including 9-of-32 from three (28.1%), while committing more turnovers (16) than assists (14), and getting outrebounded 36-46 along the way. Granted, this was the third defeat that they had suffered at FTX Arena within roughly a week, but this one was particularly disappointing not necessarily because it came after a pair of comprehensive victories in which it felt as if the momentum had changed hands, but for the simple fact that it featured the return of (All-NBA Center) Joel Embiid (30.6 PTS, 49.9% FG, 37.1% 3FG, 81.4% FT, 11.7 REB, 4.2 AST, 1.1 STL, 1.5 BLK, 31.2 PER). After suffering a fractured orbital bone and concussion late in the closeout Game Six of their previous series with the Raptors, the five-time All-Star refrained from traveling to South Beach for Games One and Two, with the faithful in Philly hoping that he would be cleared in time to participate in Game Three. Donning a protective mask akin to some superhero (or super villain pending on your preference), the Cameroon international returned to spark his team to back-to-back victories, averaging 21.0 points on 48.0% shooting, along with 11.0 rebounds and 1.5 assists in Games Three and Four, with his presence having a tidal wave effect on both ends of the hardwood. Offensively, he drew a wealth of attention from the visitors, in turn creating precious space for his teammates to operate, particularly on the perimeter where they knocked down 32-of-66 threes (48.4%) and outscored the Heat by eighteen points in that regard, opposed to the previous two games without the big fella, where they were just 14-of-64 (21.8%) and bested by a whopping TWENTY-SEVEN points. Defensively, he provided some sorely needed size, length, and physicality in the paint, relegating the visiting side to a mere 93.5 points on 40.9% shooting and 21.5% on treys, while earning an advantage on the glass (+3.0). Furthermore, the seven-footer also restored superiority at the charity stripe, for no team in the league made (1,605) more free-throws than the Sixers, and no player attempted (654) and netted (803) more singles than Embiid. In Games Three and Four, Rivers’ troops shot 45-of-56 from the line (80.3%), including a series-high thirty-four attempts in the latter affair, with the masked marvel shooting 17-of-23 in those games (73.9%). Oh, and then there was the added motivation that was leaked by the media prior to Game Five, when it was announced the Embiid, who many around the NBA figured to be the frontrunner for MVP honors, instead finished runner up to the reigning holder of that prestigious award, Nikola Jokic. Most expected the Center to come into Tuesday’s contests like a bat out of hell, but that simply wasn’t case, as Embiid could muster just seventeen points on 7-of-12 shooting (58.3%), including 0-of-1 from the perimeter (0.0%) and 3-of-3 from the stripe (100.0%), along with five rebounds, and a pair of assists and turnovers apiece in just over thirty-one minutes of action. Perhaps it was lingering effects from that aforementioned injury, or maybe it was after he took a shot to the face midway through the third quarter, but it was impossible to notice that he lacked the requisite aggression needed to succeed in such an affair, with his teammates offering very little in the way of support. After finally showing signs of life in the two games in Philly, (All-Star Guard) James Harden (21.0 PTS, 40.2% FG, 32.6% 3FG, 89.2% FT, 7.1 REB, 10.5 AST, 1.2 STL 21.8 PER) reverted back to his struggles earlier in the series, totaling an uninspiring fourteen points on 5-of-13 shooting (38.5%), along with six rebounds, and four assists and turnovers apiece. Apart from a dozen points from (veteran Forward) Tobias Harris (17.2 PTS, 48.2% FG, 36.7% 3FG, 84.2% FT, 6.8 REB, 3.5 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.6 BLK, 15.9 PER), no other Sixer scored in double-figures, tying their second-lowest scoring output of the season. And now Philadelphia is staring at what is sure to be a very difficult offseason if they fail to extend this series tonight. All rumors suggest that another early exit will in all likelihood cost Rivers his job, as the 60-year-old has come under fire throughout these playoffs due to his game management of Embiid, his charges’ lackluster efforts, and even defending his MANY previous postseason collapses. And then there is Harden, who after arriving via a midseason blockbuster trade, will effectively become an Unrestricted Free Agent this summer due to his failure to trigger the existing player option in his contract. After struggling throughout the series with Toronto, the 10-time All-Star has continued to experience difficulties in this matchup, averaging just 19.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 6.0 assists, while shooting only 40.0% from the field and 12-of-35 from downtown (34.3%), with nearly as many turnovers (25) as assists (33). By now, the narrative has been fairly clear that the 32-year-old simply isn’t the prolific threat that he was when he won three consecutive scoring titles in Houston, with a noticeable lack of burst leaving him to settle for contested step-back three-pointers, while the Association’s shift in officiating players blatantly trying to draw fouls robbing him of one of his greatest advantages. Simply put, he’s been DREADFUL in the Sixers’ three losses in this series, leaving the franchise to make a VERY difficult decision in whether or not to offer the former MVP the supermax contract that he desires.