3:30 PM EST, ABC – Line: Celtics -5, Over/Under: 205.5
Get ready for the best two words in sports, folks, as the reigning NBA Champion, Milwaukee Bucks, and Boston Celtics face off in a decisive GAME SEVEN to this Eastern Conference Semifinal from TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. Indeed, this must all feel like deja vu for the Bucks (51-31, 3rd in Eastern Conference), who for the second consecutive postseason find themselves embroiled within a seven-game epic during the semifinal round. Just under a year ago, they engaged the favored Nets in a second-round affair that truly went the distance, with Milwaukee edging Brooklyn in their own building in a wild encounter that needed overtime to decide a victor. Fast forward to the present, and we find (Head Coach) Mike Budenholzer’s troops ironically in the same position. So, with that said, how does this team shape up heading into today’s game, you ask? Well, unlike that previous series, the deer should be confident as they enter the Garden in this winner takes all tie, for after all, they’ve tasted victory at that venue of late, on multiple occasions to boot. The defending champs made their intentions quite clear in Game One, as they stormed into Boston and punched the hosts in the mouth in a 101-89 victory, relegating them to a franchise postseason-low 33.3% shooting from the field. Then, ten days later with the series tied at two games apiece, they returned to the Garden to rally back from a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter to stun the home side in a 110-107 win. This has been a club that was notorious for slowly growing into each series that they competed in last summer, with that notion being embodied by their talisman, (two-time MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.9 PTS, 55.3% FG, 29.3% 3FG, 72.2% FT, 11.6 REB, 5.8 AST, 1.1 STL, 1.4 BLK, 32.1 PER), who has been nothing short of dominant as this affair has progressed. In the first two games in Boston, it was clear that the Greece international was feeling out the staunch defense of his opponent, averaging 26.0 points on a disappointing 38.5% shooting from the field, but since that point has kept his sizeable foot on the proverbial gas pedal, racking up 40.0 points on 50.4% shooting over the following four outings. There’s just something about that 27-year-old that makes him feel inevitable; in Game Three (103-101), Antetokounmpo totaled FORTY-TWO points on 16-of-30 shooting (53.3%), twelve rebounds, and eight assists as the Bucks survived a controversial ending to retake the series lead, before doing the same in Game Five, led by FORTY points and eleven boards from a bloodied Greek Freak. Even in defeat, you would be hard-pressed to fault the reigning Finals MVP, for in Friday night’s 108-95 loss at Fiserv Forum, he erupted for FORTY-FOUR points and TWENTY rebounds, knocking down 14-of-15 free-throws along the way. The problem in this particular contest was two-fold: he didn’t receive a lot of help from his supporting cast, while the visitors had a supernova of their own to match his prolific output. Outside of Giannis, the hosts could muster just fifty-one points on 37.9% shooting from the floor, including a dreadful 5-of-26 from beyond the arc (19.2%), with only (All-Star Guard) Jrue Holiday (18.3 PTS, 50.1% FG, 41.1% 3FG, 76.1% FT, 4.5 REB, 6.8 AST, 1.6 STL,19.8 PER) and (Backup Swingman) Pat Connaughton (9.9 PTS, 45.8% FG, 39.5% 3FG, 83.3% FT, 4.2 REB, 1.3 AST, 0.9 STL, 13.4 PER) the only other players to score in double-figures, tallying seventeen and fourteen points respectively. Unfortunately, this was yet another reminder of how much Milwaukee misses the services of (All-Star Swingman) Khris Middleton (20.1 PTS, 44.3% FG, 37.3% 3FG, 89.0% FT, 5.4 REB, 5.4 AST, 1.2 STL, 18.1 PER), who after suffered a sprained MCL in Game Two of the previous series against the Bulls and has yet to return to the hardwood. How big of a deal is this, you ask? Well, the lithe 6′-7″ Forward is a perfect fit for Budenholzer’s system, possessing the size and length to shoot over smaller opponents while also proving adept at taking them into the paint, while his defense on the perimeter has long been one of his most underrated assets. Furthermore, he’s long been their most prolific threat from downtown, leading the team in three-pointers attempted (434) and made (162), oftentimes becoming their de facto scoring threat when Antetokounmpo is doubled or tripled. With six games in the books, it’s clear that Budenholzer could have really used Middleton’s expertise, particularly against such a strong defensive side; the deer have averaged just 100.5 points per game on 42.2% shooting overall and 31.0% from three, where they have been outscored by a landslide (-105). That was once again the situation in Game Six, as they could muster just 7-of-29 shooting on triples (24.1%) leading to another lopsided differential (-30). We’ve said it over and over again that in this series the Bucks MUST stretch their defense out to the perimeter more frequently than they are accustomed to; a byproduct of Budenholzer’s defensive tactics is that his charges yield more three-pointers (14.5) than any team in the Association, which has been akin to playing with fire against the Celtics. One of the tallest and longest teams in the league, they need to extend their coverage out to contest these shooters, even if it means opening themselves up in the paint. After all, this is Game Seven, where playing it safe will in all likelihood have you on a beach in Cancun next week. Historically, Milwaukee has participated in just eleven Game Sevens with a record of 3-8 (27.2%), though that aforementioned victory in Brooklyn marked their first victorious seventh game on the road.
Meanwhile, standing one game away from reaching their second Eastern Conference Final in three years are the Celtics (51-31, 2nd in Eastern Conference), who have proven to be nothing short of resilient in not just this bloodbath with the Bucks, but throughout the campaign in its entirety as well. Let us not forget that this was a franchise that entered this season with far more questions than answers back in the Fall; (Longtime Team President) Danny Ainge stepped down and was in turn replaced by Brad Stevens, who abdicated his role as Head Coach to ascend to the Front Office. Following a lengthy coaching search, Stevens settled up Ime Udoka as his successor, with the respected tactician enduring a disappointing start to his tenure in Beantown, as his troops meandered to a 17-19 record by the start of the New Year. However, everything changed at that point, as Boston went on to log the NBA’s best record in this new calendar year (34-12), thanks in large part to some inspired personnel decisions from Stevens, coupled with one helluva coaching job by Udoka. With the additions of (All-Star Forward) Al Horford (10.2 PTS, 46.7% FG, 33.6% 3FG, 84.2% FT, 7.7 REB, 3.4 AST, 0.7 STL, 1.3 BLK, 16.7 PER), (veteran Guard) Derrick White (11.0 PTS, 40.9% FG, 30.6% 3FG, 85.3% FT, 3.4 REB, 3.5 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.6 BLK, 12.9 PER), and (Backup Center) Daniel Theis (7.9 PTS, 59.8% FG, 35.7% 3FG, 68.8% FT, 4.7 REB, 1.0 AST, 0.7 BLK, 17.0 PER), coupled with the presence of (newly-minted Defensive Player of the Year) Marcus Smart (21.1 PTS, 41.8% FG, 33.1% 3FG, 79.3% FT, 3.8 REB, 5.9 AST, 1.7 STL, 13.6 PER), and the growth of (emerging Center) Robert Williams (10.0 PTS, 73.6% FG, 72.2% FT, 9.6 REB, 2.0 AST, 0.9 STL, 2.2 BLK, 22.1 PER), this is a team that has morphed into a defensive juggernaut in relegating their opponents to a scant 102.5 points per game on 42.9% shooting from the field, including 33.5% from beyond the arc, and 21.5 assists in comparison to forcing 12.8 turnovers, all the while owning a +3.8 advantage on the glass since January 2nd. This has certainly been evident in these playoffs, where they’ve allowed just 103.9 points on 45.2% shooting from the floor, including 35.4% from downtown, along with 20.2 assists in comparison to forcing 12.7 turnovers., all the while testing their mettle against some of the filthiest scoring threats in the NBA (I.E. Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and the aforementioned Antetokounmpo). In regard to this series, they’ve limited (shorthanded) Milwaukee to 100.5 points on 42.2% shooting, including a scant 31.0% from three, and they’ve managed to do so without Smart for one game (he sat out Game Two with a thigh contusion), and Williams for each of the last three contests due to soreness in the same knee that cost him roughly the final month of the regular season. Of course, there is a train of thought that this series very well could have been over had it not been for a controversial finish in Game Three and an inexplicable collapse at the Garden in Game Five. In the former, Smart drew a shooting foul on what initially appeared to be a three, only for the officials to review the matter and dictate that it was a two-point attempt instead, leading to the veteran Guard intentionally missing the second free-throw with a frenzied series of layups and second chance opportunities netting an unbelievable ZERO points at time expired. Then in Game Five, the Celtics blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter, where they were outscored 11-2 inside the final 100 seconds of play. Thankfully, they’ve received some inspired performances from a number of places, some of which have been unexpected to say the least. In Game Two, (All-Star Swingman) Jaylen Brown (23.6 PTS, 47.3% FG, 35.8% 3FG, 75.8% FT, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 18.9 PER) erupted for thirty points on 11-of-18 shooting (61.1%), including 6-of-10 from beyond the arc (60.0%), along with six rebounds and assists apiece, and a pair of steals, pouring in SEVENTEEN points in the first quarter alone, while (Backup Forward) Grant Williams (7.8 PTS, 47.5% FG, 41.1% 3FG, 90.5% FT, 3.6 REB, 1.0 AST, 0.5 STL, 0.7 BLK, 11.2 PER) came off the bench to explode for twenty-one points of his own. In Game Four in Milwaukee, it was none other than Horford who put his team on his back, with the 35-year-old exploding for a playoff career-high THIRTY points on an efficient 11-of-14 shooting (78.6%), including 5-of-7 from downtown (71.4%), eight rebounds and three assists, all the while doing his best to battle Antetokounmpo. However, the biggest takeaway from this series, and by extension these playoffs for Boston, has been the confirmation of (All-Star Swingmen) Jayson Tatum (26.9 PTS, 45.3% FG, 35.3% 3FG, 85.3% FT, 8.0 REB, 4.4 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.6 BLK, 21.8 PER), who has ascended to superstardom. In a campaign in which he’s posted career-highs in a slew of categories, including points (26.9), threes (230), two-point percentage (52.4%), free-throws (400), rebounds (8.0), assists (4.4), and PER (21.8), the 24-year-old has been even better in the postseason, averaging 28.8 points on 43.4% shooting overall, and 37.0% from the perimeter, along with 5.6 rebounds, and 5.9 assists thus far. Against the Bucks, he’s taken the challenge of matching the Greek Freak on the offensive end, erupting for 36.7 points on 47.1% shooting, 9.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists in Games Four, Five, and Six. And speaking of Game Six, there is an argument to be made that Friday night’s performance was indeed his magnum opus. Facing elimination on the road, Tatum amassed FORTY-SIX points on an efficient 17-of-32 shooting (53.1%), including 7-of-15 from beyond the arc (46.7%), along with nine rebounds, four assists, and a block, logging twenty-eight points in the second half, accounting for sixteen of the visitors’ twenty-six points in the fourth quarter. Hell, he nearly outscored the Bucks by himself down the stretch as Boston stayed alive and forced a Game Seven back at the garden. Apart from Tatum, Brown and Smart offered twenty-two and twenty-one points respectively, shooting a combined 9-of-16 from three (56.3%) with the latter providing seven assists to boot. As we stated earlier, the difference in this one was once again from beyond the arc, where they netted 17-of-43 attempts (39.5%) and outscored the home side by THIRTY points. Over the course of the series, Udoka’s charges have shot 37.1% from downtown, and have owned a whopping 105-point advantage in that regard, parlaying to a 17.5-point advantage per game. If Milwaukee are going to continue to give them open looks from the perimeter, then they MUST knock them down, for in their three wins they’re a staggering +96 on threes in comparison to just +9 in their three defeats, which has helped offset their overall -76 differential in points in the paint. With neither team managing to win consecutive games in this series, the Celtics at least will have the backing of the home crowd at TD Garden, which has to mean something, right? In Game Sevens, the home team is 109-33 (76.7%), while Boston has participated in more Game Sevens (33) than any other franchise in NBA History, owning 24-9 record (63.1%), including an 18-5 record at home (78.2%).