9:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Warriors -6, Over/Under: 214.5
Game Twos aren’t typically the most significant in a seven-game series, but this one could be the exception, as the surging Golden State Warriors look to take a commanding 2-0 lead over the Dallas Mavericks in this second chapter of their Western Conference Final, from Chase Center in San Francisco, California. Though we highly doubt that the Mavericks (52-30, 4th in Western Conference) will be hitting the proverbial panic button after Wednesday night’s one-sided 112-87 beatdown by the bay, that train of thought could very well change if they happen to find themselves on the receiving end of a similar performance tonight. Simply put, as was the case with its counterpart on the east coast, Game One of this Conference Final proved to be every bit the case of one team coming off a grueling seven-game set, and thus running out of gas against a rested opponent. With that said, “running out of gas” wasn’t an appropriate way to describe Dallas, who were never in the game to begin with; the visitors led 7-5 after the first three minutes of play, only to quickly find themselves down ten by the end of a first quarter in which they could muster just 7-of-26 shooting from the field (26.7%), including 3-of-19 from beyond the arc (15.8%), while logging as many turnovers as assists (2). From there it would only get worse, as (Head Coach) Jason Kidd’s troops were utterly THRASHED in the second half (58-42), due in large part to their struggles in taking care of the basketball, committing TEN turnovers opposed to dishing out eight assists. When it was all said and done, the Mavs were responsible for thirteen giveaways, which while not a high volume by any means, was above the average for one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA. Simply put, this is a group that thrives on slowing the pace to a crawl, allowing (All-NBA Guard) Luka Doncic (28.4 PTS, 45.7% FG, 35.3% 3FG, 74.4%, 9.1 REB, 8.7 AST, 1.2 STL, 0.6 BLK, 25.1 PER) to control possession in the halfcourt via the Pick & Roll, which in turn makes them very difficult to turn over, giving away the rock on just 11.7% of their possessions (8th Overall). This was a category in which the Mavericks expected to enjoy a sizable advantage against the Warriors, whose freewheeling style of play oftentimes lends towards committing turnovers, but in this opening salvo the two sides drew roughly even; the visitors were +2 on turnovers and +3 on points off them. However, the biggest problem was that in what has long been characterized as a make-or-miss league, they didn’t make nearly enough shots to keep pace with the hosts; two days after blasting the top-seeded Suns for 123 points on a torrid 56.8% shooting, the Mavs predictably came back down to Earth, netting a meager 36.0% of their attempts from the field, including only 11-of-48 from downtown (22.9%), even struggling at the charity stripe to boot on 14-of-21 shooting (66.7%). Furthermore, their ball-movement was nonexistent with a paltry FOURTEEN assists in comparison to those thirteen turnovers, while the home side killed them in both the paint (44-32) and in transition (18-7). Basically, Golden State earned better shots and made many of them. It certainly didn’t help that Doncic performed well below the lofty standard that he has established in this postseason, totaling twenty points on just 6-of-18 shooting (33.3%), including 3-of-10 on threes (30.0%), along with seven rebounds and four assists, though that line was marred by a whopping SEVEN turnovers. The supporting cast didn’t offer much either, as (emerging Guard) Jalen Brunson (16.3 PTS, 50.2% FG, 37.3% 3FG, 84.0% FT, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST, 0.8 STL, 17.1 PER), who was essential in the Slovenian’s absence during the opening round conquest of Utah, posted fourteen points on 6-of-16 shooting (37.5%) and 0-of-5 from the perimeter (0.0%), with four rebounds and assists apiece. If were looking for positives to take away from this one, (veteran Guard) Spencer Dinwiddie (15.8 PTS, 49.8% FG, 40.4% 3FG, 72.5% FT, 3.1 REB, 3.9 AST, 0.7 STL, 19.0 PER) would certainly fit the description, adding seventeen points off the bench. The 29-year-old has revived his career since arriving via midseason trade from Washington, while proving to be an asset off the bench for Kidd in these playoffs, pouring in THIRTY points in Sunday night’s shocking 123-90 annihilation at Phoenix. Moving forward, there are three things to keep an eye on for Dallas, with the first being their play on the defensive end of the hardwood. Yielding 56.1% shooting to the Dubs is simply unacceptable for a club who performed a complete about-face in that regard under the guidance of Kidd, relinquishing the second-fewest points in the Association this season (104.7) and posting its sixth-best defensive rating (109.4). To that end, they MUST knock down the shots given to them, for their opponent is looking to run after virtually every missed attempt, particularly on triples which tend to lead toward longer rebounds that kickstart fast breaks. In their eight victories during this postseason run, the Mavs have shot 46.9% from the floor and a blistering 40.7% from deep, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 24.3 points along the way, but in their six defeats have shot just 41.3% overall and 32.2% on threes, with a much smaller margin of +6.5 points separating them from long range. Granted, Doncic must assert his will in this series soon, for there is NOBODY on the Warriors capable of stopping him individually, and when they funnel held towards him, his teammates must take advantage of their space. Going back to our opening statement, we doubt that Kidd & Co will panic heading into this matchup, for after all, they dropped their first game of each of the previous two series as well, before gradually adjusting over the length of the affair. Furthermore, the Mavs are 3-1 after a loss in these playoffs, scoring an average of 11.7 more points from one game to the next.
Meanwhile, with every blowout victory it appears that the Warriors (53-29, 3rd in Western Conference) are that much closer to regaining the dynastic form that saw them reign over the NBA with five consecutive Finals appearances and three Larry O’Brien trophies from 2015 to 2019. Of their nine victories during this postseason run, Wednesday night’s 112-87 drubbing of the Mavericks was their fifth by double-digits, and their third by twenty or mor points. As we stated earlier, this opening salvo was certainly a case of one team looking fatigued following a seven-game affair, while the other team reaped the rewards of taking care of their business in a timely manner. Granted, though it took six games to close out the shorthanded Grizzlies in the Western Conference Semifinals, the Dubs still managed to earn four full travel-free days of rest prior to Game One at home, and it showed throughout what proved to be a very one-sided encounter. Indeed, Golden State started quickly, racing out to a 28-18 lead after the first quarter before taking a 54-45 lead into intermission. The hosts shot a blistering 56.4% from the field in the first half despite netting just 5-of-18 attempts from beyond the arc (27.8%) and a dismal 5-of-11 from the charity stripe (45.5%), while relegating the visiting side to a miserable 31.8% shooting and 7-of-29 from downtown (24.1%). That gulf would only widen in a second half in which they outscored Dallas 58-42, improving from the perimeter (5-of-11), while (All-Star sharpshooter) Klay Thompson (20.4 PTS, 42.9% FG, 38.5% 3FG, 90.2% FT, 3.9 REB, 2.8 AST, 0.5 STL, 16.7 PER) and (unheralded Guard) Jordan Poole (18.5 PTS, 44.8% FG, 36.4% 3FG, 92.5% FT, 3.4 REB, 4.0 AST, 0.8 STL, 16.1 PER) scored fifteen and ten points respectively on a striking 11-of-15 shooting (73.3%). (Two-time MVP) Steph Curry (25.5 PTS, 43.7% FG, 38.0% 3FG, 92.3% FT, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST, 1.3 STL, 21.4 PER) performed the bulk of his work in the first half, scoring twelve of his team-high twenty-one points within that frame, though it would be (veteran Swingmen) Andrew Wiggins (17.2 PTS, 46.6% FG, 39.3% 3FG, 63.4% FT, 4.5 REB, 2.2 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.7 BLK, 15.0 PER) who made the biggest impact; the former no. one overall pick has resuscitated his once-promising career since arriving via trade eighteen months ago, authoring a helluva defensive performance on the aforementioned Doncic, while also forcing the Slovenian international to expend precious energy defending him on the opposite end of the hardwood. In many ways, this affair was reminiscent of the earlier Warriors teams that thrived on their depth, as seven different players scored in double-figures, with only Curry finishing above the 20-point threshold. Wiggins ended the night with nineteen points, five rebounds, three assists, a steal and a block, while all of Thompson’s output came after intermission, with (versatile Forward) Draymond Green (7.5 PTS, 52.5% FG, 29.6% 3FG, 65.9% FT, 7.3 REB, 7.0 AST, 11.3 STL, 1.1 BLK, 14.3 PER) filling up the stat sheet with ten points, nine rebounds, three assists, two steals, and a block. Along with (veteran Swingman) Otto Porter Jr. (8.2 PTS, 46.4% FG, 37.0% 3FG, 80.3% FT, 5.7 REB, 1.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.5 BLK, 15.9 PER), Poole led a bench that logged thirty-seven points. As a whole, (Head Coach) Steve Kerr had to have enjoyed what he saw, for his troops shot a torrid 56.1% from the field, despite their relative struggles from three (10-of-29) and the stripe (10-of-16). The keys to victory lied within their defensive pressure and how they completely disrupted any and all flow in Dallas’ attack; the Dubs yielded a mere FORUTEEN assists, while closing out on their perimeter shooters (11-of-48), and utterly OWNING everything that transpired within the arc. Not only did they outscore the visitors in the paint (44-32), but they logged SEVEN blocks and EIGHT steals, all the while establishing residence on the glass with a +16-rebounding advantage. This allowed them to overcome another relatively poor shooting performance from Curry (43.8% overall and 33.3% on threes), and their own frivolous nature with the basketball (15 turnovers). Coming into this series there had been concern of fatigue in regard to Curry, who just finished the first campaign of his career shooting below 40.0% from deep (35.9%). Granted, part of that is volume (11.7 attempts per game), but against Memphis he shot a lukewarm 41.3% overall and 32.9% on triples over the course of that series, and it may bear watching against one of the better perimeter defenses as this matchup rages on.