9:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Mavericks -3, Over/Under: 218.0
After a whirlwind Game Two, tonight’s contest will go a LONG way towards deciding just how much basketball is left in this series, as the surging Golden State Warriors travel to Northern Texas to battle the resilient Dallas Mavericks in Game Three of this Western Conference Final from American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. With every victory in these playoffs, it appears that the Warriors (53-29, 3rd in Western Conference) are that much closer to recapturing the dynastic form that saw them reign over the NBA for half a decade with five consecutive Finals appearances and three Larry O’Brien trophies. After utterly annihilating the Mavs in a 112-87 opening salvo in Game One, the Dubs responded with a thrilling 126-117 comeback win on Friday night en route to taking a 2-0 lead in the series. This one was very much a tale of two halves as the hosts trailed by as many nineteen points in the first, before entering intermission with a 72-58 deficit. It certainly wasn’t for a lack of shooting, for (Head Coach) Steve Kerr’s troops netted a stellar 51.2% from the field, including 8-of-15 from beyond the arc (53.3%), though they were nothing short of careless with the ball, committing ten turnovers in the first twenty-four minutes, which undoubtedly aided the offensive juggernaut that was Dallas, who in turn knocked down 52.3% of their shots, including an insane 15-of-27 treys (55.6%), along with 11-of-14 from the charity stripe (78.6%). (Two-time MVP) Steph Curry (25.5 PTS, 43.7% FG, 38.0% 3FG, 92.3% FT, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST, 1.3 STL, 21.4 PER) broke out of his postseason malaise with twenty of his team-high thirty-two points, six rebounds, and a pair of assists in the half, knocking down 5-of-7 attempts from downtown (71.4%). However, the second half was all about the supporting cast, who channeled the energy of Warriors past, turning the tables on the visitors in a third quarter 25-13 third quarter before overtaking them altogether in the final stanza. Golden State won the second half 68-45, shooting an overwhelming 61.0% from the floor and 6-of-13 from three (46.2%), all the while exhibiting much better care when in possession, dishing out seventeen assists in comparison to committing only three turnovers. Much of their rally came on the back of the bench, particularly the likes of (unheralded Guard) Jordan Poole (18.5 PTS, 44.8% FG, 36.4% 3FG, 92.5% FT, 3.4 REB, 4.0 AST, 0.8 STL, 16.1 PER) and (veteran Center) Kevon Looney (6.0 PTS, 57.1% FG, 60.0% FT, 7.3 REB, 2.0 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.6 BLK, 15.7 PER), with the former totaling sixteen points, including 7-of-7 from the stripe (100.0%), while the latter erupted for fifteen points and eight rebounds. In the end, six different players scored in double figures for the Dubs, with Looney posting a career-high twenty-one points on an efficient 10-of-14 shooting (71.4%) and a dozen rebounds, while Poole continued his torrid form in this postseason with twenty-three points on 7-of-10 shooting (70.0%) along with five assists and a pair of steals off the bench. Furthermore, (veteran Swingman) Otto Porter Jr. (8.2 PTS, 46.4% FG, 37.0% 3FG, 80.3% FT, 5.7 REB, 1.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.5 BLK, 15.9 PER) shrugged off a bulky knee to offer eleven points, seven rebounds, four assists, and a steal, while (veteran Swingmen) Andrew Wiggins (17.2 PTS, 46.6% FG, 39.3% 3FG, 63.4% FT, 4.5 REB, 2.2 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.7 BLK, 15.0 PER) made a wealth of plays at both ends of the hardwood, finishing with sixteen points, five rebounds, and five assists, all the while operating as his team’s chief defender on Luka Doncic (much more on him shortly). As a team, the home side once again had no problems filling up the basket, netting a blistering 56.1% from the field, including 14-of-28 from downtown (50.0%), and 20-of-25 from the free-throw line (80.0%), with THIRTY-THREE assists opposed to thirteen turnovers. While their opponent was determined to keep bombing away from the perimeter, the Warriors opted to take what they could get, particularly in the paint where they hammered the Mavs 62-30. And this is ultimately proving to be the difference between these two sides: Kerr’s charges have been a far more equal-opportunity attack, outscoring their counterparts by FORTY-FOUR points in the painted area through two games, while keeping things reasonably close from beyond the arc where they are -24 thus far. To put this into perspective, Dallas has attempted THIRTY-SIX more triples, highlighting the difference in efficiency between them. Another key from Friday night’s turnaround in the second half was the defense of Golden State, which smothered the visitors over the duration of the final two periods of play, yielding just 41.2% shooting from the field, including 6-of-18 from deep (33.3%), with a sizeable rebounding disparity (23-12), and just six assists in comparison five turnovers. Golden State pushed their unbeaten record at Chase Center to 8-0 in these playoffs and are now 18-5 in all Game Twos since Kerr took over back in 2015. At this point, even the most ardent of skeptics must favor the Warriors ‘ chances of advancing to their first NBA Finals since 2019; Golden State are 14-1 when they win the first two games of a series dating back to the 2015 playoffs, with that lone defeat coming in the 2016 NBA Finals where they relinquished a 3-1 lead to the Cavaliers in what was the greatest comeback in Finals history.
Meanwhile, as overwhelming as things may seem to be at this point of the series, we seriously doubt that the Mavericks (52-30, 4th in Western Conference) are panicking in any manner after falling into an 0-2 hole following Friday night’s 126-117 defeat in San Francisco. After all, this team has proven to be nothing short of resilient throughout these playoffs, and with the venue shifting to American Airlines Center they have an opportunity to wrestle control of this affair back from the Warriors. After all, they’ve been here recently; Dallas overcame an 0-2 deficit in the Western Semifinals in which they looked thoroughly outplayed by the Suns, bouncing back with three wins in Northern Texas before authoring the largest road victory ever in a Game Seven, utterly obliterating Phoenix in a 123-90 shocker. Indeed, apart from the final outcome there were plenty of positives to be had in Game Two, none more so than the fact that Dallas was good enough to establish a 19-point lead in the second quarter, where they netted a ridiculous 12-of-20 from the field (60.0%), including 9-of-12 from beyond the arc (75.0%). Unlike the opener, both (All-NBA Guard) Luka Doncic (28.4 PTS, 45.7% FG, 35.3% 3FG, 74.4%, 9.1 REB, 8.7 AST, 1.2 STL, 0.6 BLK, 25.1 PER) and (emerging Guard) Jalen Brunson (16.3 PTS, 50.2% FG, 37.3% 3FG, 84.0% FT, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST, 0.8 STL, 17.1 PER) were in full effect in the early stages of this encounter, combining for forty-four points on 14-of-22 shooting (63.6%) and 7-of-10 from downtown (70.0%), with the former taking residence from the charity stripe (7-of-9), and filling out the stat sheet with three rebounds, six assists, and a pair of steals. Furthermore, (veteran sharpshooter) Reggie Bullock (8.6 PTS, 40.1% FG, 36.0% 3FG, 83.3% FT, 3.5 REB, 1.2 AST, 0.6 STL, 9.2 PER) caught fire from deep with 4-of-5 shooting on threes (80.0%) leading to thirteen points. By the end of the first half, (Head Coach) Jason Kidd’s troops had drained 15-of-27 triples (55.6%), which was a far cry from the 11-of-48 performance that they had offered on Wednesday night. Unfortunately, there was a second half to play in this contest, with the third quarter proving to be particularly troublesome for the visiting side; the well dried up for the Mavs, who could muster a meager 5-of-19 shooting (26.3%) and 2-of-13 from three (15.4%), with as many as turnovers (3) as assists, as the hosts cut the deficit to just two points entering the fourth period. From there, the visitors would regain their touch largely on the strength of Doncic, who took control with fourteen points on 3-of-6 shooting (50.0%) and 6-of-6 from the free-throw line (100.0%), but they could do little to deter the budding supernova that was hosts, who shot a ludicrous 15-of-19 from the field (78.9%) en route to claiming the 2-0 lead in the series. In the end, the Mavericks shot 47.4% from the field, including a much-improved 21-of-45 from downtown (46.7%), and 22-of-29 from the stripe (75.9%), along with twenty-two assists in comparison to committing a dozen turnovers. After posting a disappointing twenty points and seven turnovers in Game One, Doncic erupted for FORTY-TWO points on 12-of-23 shooting (52.2%), along with five rebounds, eight assists, and three steals, while netting 5-of-10 on treys (50.0%) and 13-of-15 on free-throws (86.7%). Brunson bounced back as well with thirty-one points on 11-of-19 shooting (57.9%), including 5-of-7 from three (71.4%), seven rebounds, and five assists, while Bullock added twenty-one points on 6-of-11 shooting (54.5%) and 6-of-10 on treys (60.0%). However, as we outlined earlier, they simply had no solutions for the Warriors on the opposite end of the hardwood, particularly in the second half. Since taking over in the summer, the most noticeable difference for Dallas under Kidd has been their evolution defensively, relinquishing the second-fewest points in the Association this season (104.7) and posting its sixth-best defensive rating (109.4). With that said, you wouldn’t know after watching the first two games of this series, for the Mavs have been manhandled in the paint (-44) and battered on the glass (-29). This is a byproduct of playing this five-out brand of basketball that has been so successful for them in these playoffs; flooding the floor with shooters and allowing Doncic to pick their opponent apart via the pick and roll has been the winning formula up to this point, but one has to wonder if that approach begun to betray them. Perhaps returning home to American Airlines Center will provide them with a spark on the defensive end; 5-1 at home in this postseason, Dallas has allowed just 93.5 points on 42.7% shooting in those contests, with their lone defeat coming while Doncic was sidelined with a strained calf muscle in Game One of their encounter with Utah in the first round.