8:30 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Celtics -1.5, Over/Under: 203.5
Through four games this Eastern Conference Final stands tied at two games apiece, setting up a crucial Game Five between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat, as the series shifts back to FTX Arena in Miami, Florida. Historically speaking, the fifth game in a best-of-seven series is one of the more significant chapters for a variety of reasons, though none more so than this: when a series is tied at 2-2, the winner of Game Five goes on to win said affair 82.8% of the time. Granted, the Celtics (51-31, 2nd in Eastern Conference) are well-acquainted with this situation after having already faced it in the previous round of the playoffs. After alternating wins and losses throughout the first four games against the (reigning NBA Champion) Bucks, they squandered a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter at home in what was a 110-107 collapse. However, Boston would rail against convention and take Game Six in Milwaukee (108-95), forcing a decisive Game Seven at the Garden where they finally conquered the defending champions in a 109-81 triumph. Ironically, this next round of the postseason has played out in eerily similar fashion; after falling in Game One (118-107), they thrashed Miami in a 127-102 beatdown on South Beach, before the scene shifted northeast, where the visitors jumped out to a commanding 26-point lead, before the hosts cut the deficit to one in what would eventually end in a 109-103 defeat. Injuries and absences have played a MAJOR role in this matchup thus far, with the Celtics’ training staff working overtime; in addition to (emerging Center) Robert Williams (10.0 PTS, 73.6% FG, 72.2% FT, 9.6 REB, 2.0 AST, 0.9 STL, 2.2 BLK, 22.1 PER) missing eight of the last eleven contests, (newly-minted Defensive Player of the Year) Marcus Smart (21.1 PTS, 41.8% FG, 33.1% 3FG, 79.3% FT, 3.8 REB, 5.9 AST, 1.7 STL, 13.6 PER) and (veteran Forward) Al Horford (10.2 PTS, 46.7% FG, 33.6% 3FG, 84.2% FT, 7.7 REB, 3.4 AST, 0.7 STL, 1.3 BLK, 16.7 PER) were inactive for Game One, with the former suffering from an ailing foot and the latter falling into the NBA’s Health and Safety Protocols. All three would return for Game Two, but Game Three was another matter altogether, as Smart came down on his ankle early in the third quarter, while (All-Star Swingman) Jayson Tatum (26.9 PTS, 45.3% FG, 35.3% 3FG, 85.3% FT, 8.0 REB, 4.4 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.6 BLK, 21.8 PER) appeared to suffer a neck injury in the latter stages of the affair, with both players leaving the hardwood for treatment. As it turned out, Smart would be a late scratch for Monday night’s Game Four, though he wouldn’t be needed as Boston ANNIHILATED Miami in another one-sided affair, 102-82. Needless to say, this one was over early, folks, as the home side raced out to an 18-1 lead in a first quarter that they ultimately dominated 29-11. Ironically, (Head Coach) Ime Udoka’s troops didn’t amass their lead on the strength of torrid perimeter shooting like they did in Game Two, but rather their defense, as they relegated the Heat to a miserable 3-of-20 shooting in the period (15.0%), as Tatum outscored the visiting side all by himself (12-11). At no point were the Celtics ever threatened, as they led by as many as THIRTY-TWO points, continuing a peculiar trend in this series of one of these teams leading by twenty or more points in every chapter. As we stated, this one wasn’t about their three-point marksmanship, not when they shot a dismal 8-of-34 from beyond the arc (23.5%), no. This victory was all about their defensive intensity, which was all the more impressive given that they did it without Smart on the hardwood. Boston held Miami to just 33.3% shooting from the field, including a dreadful 29.6% on two-point field goals, and absolutely bludgeoning them on the glass (+21), with ELEVEN blocks. After committing an insane TWENTY-FOUR turnovers in Saturday night’s loss, Udoka’s charges took much better care of the basketball (11 turnovers), which allowed their opponent to manufacture into a scant seven points (opposed to 33 in Game Three). With that said, their points had to have come from somewhere, and if it wasn’t from downtown (-18) or in transition (-3), how in the hell did the manage to win a game by twenty points despite shooting 39.7% from the field, you ask? The charity stripe is where the Celtics got it done, netting a ridiculous 32-of-38 free-throws on the night (84.2%), including an absolutely bonkers 21-of-26 (80.8%) in the first half alone, where they outscored the Heat by a whopping TWENTY-FIVE points. This further played into their overwhelming advantage from the stripe, where they’ve attempted a staggering THIRTY-NINE more free-throws than their opponent, parlaying to a 34-point advantage in that regard. Getting to the line with this regularity is advantageous for many reasons, as it allows you to accumulate easy points with the clock stopped, which is huge when you’re struggling from the field, while also affording you the luxury of getting back and setting your halfcourt defense, completely negating any opportunity that your opponent may have of pushing the tempo and starting a fast break. The hosts edged the visitors by a wide margin in that regard (+24), with the aforementioned Tatum leading the way with a game-high thirty-one points, including 14-of-16 shooting from the stripe (87.5%). Think about that for a moment: the 24-year-old outscored Miami 14-8 on free-throws, and ousted their starters 31-18, bouncing back from a disappointing performance in Game Three, in which he could muster just ten points on 3-of-14 shooting (21.4%) and six turnovers. Indeed, Tatum has made it a habit of erupting after a loss in these playoffs, averaging 32.6 points on an efficient 51.4% shooting and 41.6% from downtown, along with 7.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists for a team that has yet to lose consecutive games during this run. Getting back to Monday night’s blowout, four other players scored in double-figures for Boston, (veteran Guard) Derrick White (11.0 PTS, 40.9% FG, 30.6% 3FG, 85.3% FT, 3.4 REB, 3.5 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.6 BLK, 12.9 PER) posting thirteen points eight rebounds, six assists, and three steals in place of the injured Smart, while both (All-Star Swingman) Jaylen Brown (23.6 PTS, 47.3% FG, 35.8% 3FG, 75.8% FT, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 18.9 PER) and the aforementioned Williams totaled twelve points apiece, with (young Guard) Payton Pritchard (6.2 PTS, 42.9% FG, 41.2% 3FG, 100.0%, 1.9 REB, 2.0 AST, 15.0 PER) coming off the bench with fourteen points and knocking down 3-of-6 treys (50.0%). As this series shifts back to South Beach, there is a growing sentiment that as long as the Celtics don’t beat themselves, they should end up returning to the Finals for the first time since 2010, avenging that Eastern Finals defeat to the Heat in the Bubble two years ago, and this last statistic should hammer that home: in their ten wins thus far in this postseason, Boston has committed an average of just 11.5 turnovers, but in their five losses they’ve been turned over 15.8 times, including 20.0 per game in this series alone.
Meanwhile, even though this series is tied at two games apiece, we can’t shake the feeling that the Heat (53-29, 1st in Eastern Conference) are falling apart as they suffered their second debacle at the hands of the Celtics in five days. Similar to that 127-102 drubbing at FTX Arena last Thursday, which was the fourth-largest home playoff loss in franchise history, Monday night’s 102-82 defeat was troubling on MANY levels. First and foremost, Miami’s halfcourt offense has continued to struggle against arguably the best defense in the National Basketball Association; in their two losses in this matchup, they shot a miserable 38.6% from the field, including just 41.5% from inside the three-point line as their lack of size and length has really become an issue. Game Four saw them start off with a frigid 3-of-20 shooting in the first quarter (15.0%) en route to being outscored 29-11 in the period. Seriously, the visitors didn’t log their first field goal until there was 3:22 left to play. In the end, (Head Coach) Erik Spoelstra’s troops shot just 33.3% from the field, including a pitiful 29.6% on two-pointers, while getting manhandled on the glass (-21) and stonewalled at the rim as Boston blocked ELEVEN shots. So, what in the name of Pat Riley has happened to the Heat, you ask? Well, as we stated earlier, this is a group that struggles to operate efficiently in the halfcourt, relying upon their ability to force turnovers so that they can get easier opportunities in transition. We covered the Celtics’ turnover woes in Games One and Three, and Miami has feasted on them; in their two victories, they’ve shot 47.6% from the field, and scored FIFTY-TWO points via turnovers, in comparison to netting a meager eighteen points off their opponent’s mistakes in the two losses. Another major factor thus far has been the health and availability of their stars, which at this point isn’t looking good. It’s unfortunate that (All-Star Swingman) Jimmy Butler (21.4 PTS, 48.0% FG, 23.3% 3FG, 87.0% FT, 5.9 REB, 5.7 AST, 1.6 STL, 0.5 BLK, 23.6 PER) has been playing on one leg for the last six quarters of action, after suffering inflammation in his knee during the first half of Game Three. Butler sat out the closeout Game Five of their first-round conquest of the Hawks, and it appears that that same knee is causing him pain in this series. Needless to say, this is a MAJOR issue for the Heat, who rely upon the six-time All-Star to do so much for them on both ends of the hardwood. Prior to that fateful Game Three, the 32-year-old had been a MONSTER in these playoffs, averaging 29.8 points on 54.0% shooting from the field, including 34.7% from beyond the arc, along with 7.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 2.2 steals, but in the last two outings has been relegated to just 7.0 points on 27.3% shooting, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.5 assists in roughly 23.5 minutes of action. Sure, they were able to gut out the second half of Saturday night’s affair without his services, but it was painfully evident that there aren’t many solutions to be found if his situation gets any worse. (All-Star Forward) Bam Adebayo (19.1 PTS, 55.7% FG, 75.3% FT, 10.1 REB, 3.4 AST, 1.4 STL, 0.8 BLK, 21.8 PER) was TREMENDOUS in in Game Three, authoring thirty-one points on 15-of-22 shooting (68.2%), ten rebounds, six assists, and four steals, but in the other three entries of this series has been a complete non-factor with a combined TWENTY-FIVE points on just fifteen shot attempts. Spoelstra NEEDS the big fella to be more aggressive, for when he’s at the top of his game, he’s arguably the most important player in the rotation. And then there is (veteran Guard) Kyle Lowry (13.4 PTS, 44.0% FG, 37.7% 3FG, 85.1% FT, 7.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 15.0 PER), who during the regular season played the perfect complement to Butler in the backcourt, but in this postseason has been dogged by a tender hamstring that had sidelined him for eight of nine games before finally making his return over the weekend. The 36-year-old has scored a total of fourteen points in the last two games on 5-of-17 shooting (29.4%), including 3-of-10 from downtown (30.0%), all the while trying to regain his legs in a matchup that demands it. As for other solutions, (newly-minted Sixth Man of the Year) Tyler Herro (20.7 PTS, 44.7% FG, 39.9% 3FG, 86.8% FT, 5.0 REB, 4.0 AST, 0.7 STL, 16.2 PER) was inactive for Game Four due to tightness in his own hamstring, robbing the bench of the first reserve since the early 90s to average over twenty points. However, in this series he has struggled like the rest of his teammates, offering just 12.3 points on 39.0% shooting, including a dismal 1-of-14 from deep (7.1%). Listed as day-to-day, it remains to be seen if the 22-year-old will be available for tonight’s crucial showdown on South Beach, though we have a suspicion that Spoelstra may have been saving him for the trip home. No matter what they do, this team MUST coax more production out of their starting lineup, which was utterly abysmal on Monday night; Miami’s starters accounted for a mere EIGHTEEN points, which was the lowest total by any quintet since the 1970-1971 campaign. Butler, Adebayo, Lowry, P.J. Tucker (7.6 PTS, 48.4% FG, 41.5% 3FG, 73.8% FT, 5.5 REB, 2.1 AST, 0.8 STL, 11.3 PER), and Max Strus (10.6 PTS, 44.1% FG, 41.0% 3FG, 79.2% FT, 3.0 REB, 1.4 AST, 12.7 PER) shot a miserable 7-of-36 overall (19.4%), with the latter two dealing with ailments of their own. Indeed, the only bright spot was a revitalized Victor Oladipo (12.4 PTS, 47.9% FG, 41.7% 3FG, 73.7% FT, 2.9 REB, 3.5 AST, 0.6 STL, 16.8 PER), who led the team with twenty-three points, four rebounds, and six assists in thirty minutes off the bench. After missing nearly two full seasons to a knee injury, the former All-Star has certainly had his moments in these playoffs and this series in particular; his defense on the aforementioned Brown (7 turnovers in Game Three) has been huge, while his playmaking has been a desperate supplement to Butler.