8:30 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Celtics -8.5, Over/Under: 201.5
The Eastern Conference Finals are on the verge of concluding tonight in Boston, as the surging Celtics look to book their first trip to the NBA Finals in over a decade, as the Miami Heat are simply desperate to force a decisive seventh game, in this Game Six from TD Garden. Despite being the most consistent team in the East this season and muscling their way through the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Heat (53-29, 1st in Eastern Conference) are falling apart at the seams, largely due to an unfortunate run of poor health at the most inopportune of times. Indeed, if this is it for Miami tonight, it will be a disappointing ending to a story that began back in the Bubble. After edging Boston in Orlando, (Head Coach) Erik Spoelstra’s troops fell short of securing their third Larry O’Brien trophy, and would spend much of the following campaign paying for their journey; fatigue, injuries, and COVID ravaged the 2020-2021 season for the denizens of South Beach, who were unceremoniously swept in the First Round by the (eventual NBA Champion) Bucks. Spoelstra and (Team President) Pat Riley spent the summer adding reinforcements in the form of veterans with recent championship experience, including Kyle Lowry (13.4 PTS, 44.0% FG, 37.7% 3FG, 85.1% FT, 7.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 15.0 PER) and P.J. Tucker (7.6 PTS, 48.4% FG, 41.5% 3FG, 73.8% FT, 5.5 REB, 2.1 AST, 0.8 STL, 11.3 PER), all the while continuing the stellar inhouse development of their young talent that has made them the envy of many teams across the Association. As a result, the Heat bounced back in MAJOR way, securing the top seed in the East, and disposing of the Hawks and 76ers with relative ease. Unfortunately, what was set to be a battle of heavyweights turned into an uneven, unpredictable affair, and now into a one-sided beatdown that is NOT in their favor. So, what in the name of Alonzo Mourning has happened, you ask? Well, as touched upon earlier, a slew of maladies has utterly derailed Miami in this matchup. First and foremost, (All-Star Swingman) Jimmy Butler (21.4 PTS, 48.0% FG, 23.3% 3FG, 87.0% FT, 5.9 REB, 5.7 AST, 1.6 STL, 0.5 BLK, 23.6 PER) left midway through Game Three with swelling in his knee, and has been a shell of himself ever since; Spoelstra relies heavily upon the six-time All-Star to do so much for the team on both ends of the hardwood, for prior to that night, the 32-year-old had been a MONSTER in averaging 29.8 points on 54.0% shooting from the field, including 34.7% from beyond the arc, along with 7.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 2.2 steals. However, in the last two outings he has been relegated to just 9.0 points on 25.0% shooting, 14.3% from beyond the arc, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists in 29.1 minutes of action, including thirteen points on a miserable 4-of-18 shooting (22.2%) in Wednesday night’s 93-80 loss at FTX Arena. Adding to those injury woes has been the absence of (newly-minted Sixth Man of the Year) Tyler Herro (20.7 PTS, 44.7% FG, 39.9% 3FG, 86.8% FT, 5.0 REB, 4.0 AST, 0.7 STL, 16.2 PER), who has missed the last two games due to a strained hamstring, and not to mention the hinderance of both Lowry and Tucker, with the former missing eight of the last ten games with a nagging hamstring of his own, while the latter has been slowed since suffering a bruised foot in Game Two. And if that wasn’t enough, other members of the supporting cast have been dealing with issues of their own, namely Max Strus (10.6 PTS, 44.1% FG, 41.0% 3FG, 79.2% FT, 3.0 REB, 1.4 AST, 12.7 PER) shot a miserable 7-of-36 overall (19.4%), who has also been mired by a hamstring problem. Needless to say, this is A LOT to be dealing with at once, let alone in the playoffs against arguably the best defensive team in the NBA. On a good day, the Heat are merely an average offensive team in the halfcourt, oftentimes relying upon Butler’s playmaking and the timely shooting of Lowry and others to get by, but they’ve received no such help in this affair. Look no further than how meager the scoring output has been from the starting lineup over the last two contests; in Game Four, the quintet of Butler, Lowry, Tucker, Strus and (All-Star Forward) Bam Adebayo (19.1 PTS, 55.7% FG, 75.3% FT, 10.1 REB, 3.4 AST, 1.4 STL, 0.8 BLK, 21.8 PER) combined for a scant EIGHTEEN points, which was the lowest total by any starting five since the 1970-1971 campaign. Wednesday night was an improvement in the fact that they totaled forty-two points, but as a team Miami could only muster EIGHTY points on a miserable 31.9% shooting from the field, including an anemic 7-of-45 from downtown (15.6%), with nearly as many turnovers (12) as assists (14). With Butler essentially playing on one leg, Lowry looking completely gassed, and Herro out of commission altogether, there aren’t many solutions for Spoelstra and his staff. Compounding matters is that Adebayo has been a non-factor for much of this series; apart from posting thirty-one points, ten rebounds, six assists, and four steals in Game Three, the versatile big fella has lacked aggression with just forty-three points COMBINED on thirty attempts. Already at a disadvantage in terms of size, Miami cannot afford to keep receiving this lack of production from their lone big man. Perhaps we’ll see Victor Oladipo (12.4 PTS, 47.9% FG, 41.7% 3FG, 73.7% FT, 2.9 REB, 3.5 AST, 0.6 STL, 16.8 PER) play a larger role in the offense tonight? After missing nearly two full seasons to a knee injury, the former All-Star has certainly had his moments in these playoffs and this series in particular; his defense on the aforementioned Brown (7 turnovers in Game Three) has been huge, while his twenty-three points, four rebounds, and six assists in thirty minutes off the bench was literally the ONLY bright spot for the club in Game Four. And what about (young sharpshooter) Duncan Robinson (10.9 PTS, 39.9% FG, 37.2% 3FG, 83.6% FT, 2.6 REB, 1.6 AST, 0.5 STL, 10.6 PER)? After erupting for twenty-seven points in the opener against Atlanta, he has been an afterthought ever since, logging more than fifteen minutes in a game just twice, which coincidentally came in the last two outings with the starters struggling so. It’s clear that Spoelstra sees him as a defensive liability, but there is no denying that his perimeter shooting (40.6% career 3FG) could pump some sorely needed life back into the attack.
Meanwhile, forty-eight minutes are all the separate the Celtics (51-31, 2nd in Eastern Conference) from advancing to their first NBA Finals since 2010. Indeed, it’s been quite a time for Boston, who are NO stranger to this stage; tied with the Lakers for the most NBA Championships in history (17), they now find themselves a win away from appearing in their TWENTY-SECOND NBA Finals, which is second all-time behind only Los Angeles (32). However, six months ago, you would have been hard-pressed to convince even the most biased of Celtic fans that his team would advance to this point. So, what in the name of Bill Russell has happened in Beantown, you ask? Well, like Miami, let’s turn the clock back to the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals, where they fell in the Bubble. Boston would pay for their success in a similar manner to their ECF counterpart, as fatigue, injuries, and COVID ravaged their campaign, leaving them to be ushered out of the postseason in the First Round. This past summer, the franchise underwent a structural reboot as (longtime Team President) Danny Ainge stepped down and was in turn replaced by Brad Stevens, who abdicated his role as Head Coach to ascend to the Front Office. Following a lengthy coaching search, Stevens settled upon Ime Udoka as his successor, with the respected tactician enduring a disappointing start to his tenure in Beantown, as his troops meandered to a 17-19 record by the start of the New Year. However, everything changed at that point, as Boston went on to log the NBA’s best record in this new calendar year (34-12), thanks in large part to some inspired personnel decisions from Stevens, coupled with one helluva coaching job by Udoka. With the additions of (All-Star Forward) Al Horford (10.2 PTS, 46.7% FG, 33.6% 3FG, 84.2% FT, 7.7 REB, 3.4 AST, 0.7 STL, 1.3 BLK, 16.7 PER), (veteran Guard) Derrick White (11.0 PTS, 40.9% FG, 30.6% 3FG, 85.3% FT, 3.4 REB, 3.5 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.6 BLK, 12.9 PER), and (Backup Center) Daniel Theis (7.9 PTS, 59.8% FG, 35.7% 3FG, 68.8% FT, 4.7 REB, 1.0 AST, 0.7 BLK, 17.0 PER), coupled with the presence of (newly-minted Defensive Player of the Year) Marcus Smart (21.1 PTS, 41.8% FG, 33.1% 3FG, 79.3% FT, 3.8 REB, 5.9 AST, 1.7 STL, 13.6 PER), and the growth of (emerging Center) Robert Williams (10.0 PTS, 73.6% FG, 72.2% FT, 9.6 REB, 2.0 AST, 0.9 STL, 2.2 BLK, 22.1 PER), this is a team that has morphed into a bonafide defensive juggernaut, relegating their opponents to a scant 102.5 points per game on 42.9% shooting from the field, including 33.5% from beyond the arc, and 21.5 assists in comparison to forcing 12.8 turnovers, all the while owning a +3.8 advantage on the glass since January 2nd. This has certainly been evident in these playoffs, where they’ve allowed a postseason-low 100.7 points on 43.2% shooting from the floor, including 31.6% from downtown, along with 19.9 assists in comparison to forcing 12.2 turnovers., all the while testing their mettle against some of the filthiest offensive threats in the NBA (I.E. Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the aforementioned Butler). And it’s been that defensive prowess that has propelled them to this commanding lead over the Heat, for in this series they’ve relegated them to a paltry 98.2 points on 40.7% shooting and 29.2% from downtown, with 19.4 assists and 11.0 turnovers, and blasting them on boards by 5.2 rebounds a night. And it’s not like Udoka & Co have enjoyed a clean run of health either; after missing the last three weeks of the regular season following MCL surgery, Williams has essentially been day-to-day throughout the playoffs, while Smart has missed multiple games with foot and ankle sprains, to say nothing of Horford, who missed Game Two after testing positive for COVID. By and large, their depth has been an absolute asset in a series in which they’ve established themselves as clearly the better side; if not for succumbing to a 22-2 run during the third quarter of the opener and committing TWENTY-FOUR turnovers in Game Three, there is a real argument that this affair would already have ended in a clean sweep. Of course, it certainly helps that the tandem of (All-Star Swingmen) Jayson Tatum (26.9 PTS, 45.3% FG, 35.3% 3FG, 85.3% FT, 8.0 REB, 4.4 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.6 BLK, 21.8 PER) and Jaylen Brown (23.6 PTS, 47.3% FG, 35.8% 3FG, 75.8% FT, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 18.9 PER) have lived up their billing as one of the best in the game, combining for 48.8 points, 15.4 rebounds, 7.8 assists, and 1.6 steals in this matchup. While their opponent’s stars have been felled by injuries, the Celtics have had no such issue, with that sentiment very noticeable in Games Four and Five, as Tatum and Brown combined to outscore Miami’s starting lineup 90-60 (30 points!). Both players have fleshed their respective games out considerably, assuming a greater role from a playmaking perspective and flourishing under Udoka’s tutelage on the defensive end of the hardwood. In Wednesday night’s rout at FTX Arena, the visitors put their foot on the gas in the third quarter, where they outscored the hosts 32-16 on the strength of a massive 24-2 run reminiscent of the outburst that Miami unleashed upon them in Game One, shooting a torrid 13-of-18 from the field (61.1%), and 8-of-12 from the charity stripe (66.7%), with seven assists opposed to a pair of turnovers, and winning the rebounding battle 17-10. In the end, Boston shot 46.5% overall, leading by as many as twenty-three points. Brown led the team with twenty-five points on 10-of-19 shooting (52.6%) and 5-of-9 from deep (55.6%), while Tatum made up for a poor shooting performance (7-of-20) with nearly a triple-double consisting of twenty-two points, twelve rebounds, and nine assists. Horford added sixteen points, seven rebounds, and five assists, while the aforementioned White chipped in with fourteen points and five assists off the bench. Going back to Horford, tonight’s contest will be the 140th postseason appearance of his long career, the most of any player in NBA history never to appear in the Finals. That very well could change tonight…