9:00 PM EST, ABC – Line: Warriors -3.5, Over/Under: 211.5
After six weeks of thrilling action, comebacks, and blowouts, the NBA Playoffs has reached its ultimate stage as the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors meet in Game One of the NBA Finals from Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The theme for this series is legacy, and how ironic is it that the Celtics (51-31, 2nd in Eastern Conference), a franchise with arguably the greatest legacy in the sport, are the young upstarts looking to forge a new era of greatness? That’s right, folks, Boston is back in the Finals for the TWENTY-SECOND time in its long and storied history, though they find themselves competing for the coveted Larry O’Brien Trophy for the first time since 2010. With that said, it hasn’t been for a lack of trying; this is a club that has featured in four of the last six Eastern Conference Finals, only to meet defeat again and again until finally breaking through in epic fashion as they toppled the top-seeded Heat in a grueling seven-game series. So, let’s take a moment to reflect on how they got here, shall we? Though it may be hard to fathom, the Celtics were very much a question mark coming into this campaign, having underwent a structural reboot at the top as (longtime Team President) Danny Ainge stepped down and was in turn replaced by Brad Stevens, who abdicated his role as Head Coach to ascend to the Front Office. Following a lengthy search, Stevens settled upon Ime Udoka as his successor, who endured a difficult start to his tenure in Beantown, as his troops meandered to a 17-19 record at the start of the New Year. However, everything changed at that point, as Boston went on to log the NBA’s best record in this new calendar year (34-12), thanks in large part to some inspired personnel decisions from Stevens coupled with one helluva coaching job by Udoka. With the return of (All-Star Forward) Al Horford (10.2 PTS, 46.7% FG, 33.6% 3FG, 84.2% FT, 7.7 REB, 3.4 AST, 0.7 STL, 1.3 BLK, 16.7 PER) and (Backup Center) Daniel Theis (7.9 PTS, 59.8% FG, 35.7% 3FG, 68.8% FT, 4.7 REB, 1.0 AST, 0.7 BLK, 17.0 PER), and the addition of (veteran Guard) Derrick White (11.0 PTS, 40.9% FG, 30.6% 3FG, 85.3% FT, 3.4 REB, 3.5 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.6 BLK, 12.9 PER) at the Trade Deadline, along with the presence of (Defensive Player of the Year) Marcus Smart (21.1 PTS, 41.8% FG, 33.1% 3FG, 79.3% FT, 3.8 REB, 5.9 AST, 1.7 STL, 13.6 PER) and the growth of (emerging Center) Robert Williams (10.0 PTS, 73.6% FG, 72.2% FT, 9.6 REB, 2.0 AST, 0.9 STL, 2.2 BLK, 22.1 PER), this team morphed into a bonafide defensive juggernaut, relegating their opponents to a scant 102.5 points per game on 42.9% shooting from the field, including 33.5% from beyond the arc, and 21.5 assists in comparison to forcing 12.8 turnovers, all the while owning a +3.8 advantage on the glass since January 2nd. And it has been that prowess on the defensive end that has driven them to the Finals, as Boston has held the opposition to 101.0 points on 43.3% shooting and 31.7% from downtown, with 20.0 assists in comparison to forcing 13.1 turnovers, all the while testing their mettle against some of the filthiest scoring threats in the NBA including Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jimmy Butler. With that said, Udoka has some serious firepower of his own in the form of (All-Star Swingmen) Jayson Tatum (26.9 PTS, 45.3% FG, 35.3% 3FG, 85.3% FT, 8.0 REB, 4.4 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.6 BLK, 21.8 PER) and Jaylen Brown (23.6 PTS, 47.3% FG, 35.8% 3FG, 75.8% FT, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 18.9 PER), who have combined for a whopping 49.9 points per game in these playoffs. How good has this tandem been, you ask? The Celtics are just the FOURTH team to advance to the Finals with their top two leading scorers aged 25-years-old or younger, and the first to do it since the Thunder back in 2012. Looking to this matchup with the Warriors, you’ll notice a sizeable gap in experience at this stage; Boston has ZERO players on their roster that have logged a single minute in the Finals, while their opponent has a total of 123 games to their ledger between three players (much more on them in a bit). In fact, this is only the THIRD Final to feature such a disparity between opponents, and the first since 1997. Granted, that could affect this affair in a multitude of ways, particularly when you consider their proclivity for turnovers, which have often served as the barometer for their success; in their twelve victories they’ve committed 12.5 turnovers for a reasonable 14.5 points going to their opponent, but in their six defeats have been turned over on 16.3 occasions for an untenable 21.3 points going the other way. Thankfully, there are also a number of factors that should work in their favor. First, Udoka’s charges should benefit greatly from a more relaxing schedule; since Game Two of the Eastern Semifinals, they’ve been playing every other day as each of their last two series have gone the distance. Given the ongoing health concerns of both Smart (quadriceps, ankle) and Williams (meniscus), there is no doubt that they’ll enjoy the three days off between their last effort and tonight, along with the two days of rest between each chapter of this matchup. Second, from a tactical standpoint, the Celtics have historically matched up well with the Warriors, due in large part to their versatility on the defensive end, allowing them to switch on screens. In the past, this tactic has proved successful in disrupting Golden State’s fluid ball-movement, and Boston, who ranked tops in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency (106.2), owes much of that to their ability to switch. Get ready to hear a lot about this tactic throughout the broadcasts of this matchup, as Udoka’s outfit switched more defensively than any team in the Association during the regular season and have ranked second in the postseason thus far at 44.0%. Dating back to the 2017-2018 campaign, the Celtics have employed this stratagem to great success, permitting the Dubs to average just 103.1 points on 43.0% shooting from the field, including 31.7% from three, with 23.1 assists opposed to 14.4 turnovers in ten meetings, in which they’ve won seven. In their most recent encounter, a lopsided 110-88 victory at Chase Center back on March 16th, the visitors smothered the home side on 37.2% shooting and 11-of-49 from deep (22.9%), while yielding only nineteen assists. The point that we’re making here is that few teams have enjoyed this kind of success against the Warriors over the last five seasons, which should bode well for the Celtics in this particular series. Furthermore, keep an eye on Tatum in this affair, for this is the stage that for all intents and purposes can confirm his ascent to superstardom that has been one of his club’s major themes of this run. The 23-year-old has developed into a far more well-rounded performer under Udoka’s watch, logging career-highs in free-throws (400), rebounds (8.0), and assists (4.4), all the while becoming the first Swingman to lead the league in Defensive Win Shares (4.6) in decades. In these playoffs, he has averaged 27.0 points on 44.6% shooting, including 37.5% on treys, 6.7 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.2 steals, with an overall plus/minus of 129. As for his history with Golden State, Tatum has faced off against them in each of those aforementioned ten encounters, posting 22.1 points per game on 45.6% shooting and 36.7% from long-range, along with 7.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.3 steals. His performance against Miami in the Eastern Finals earned him the round’s first-ever MVP award, appropriately titled the Larry Bird Trophy. If Boston does manage to secure an NBA-record EIGHTEENTH championship, then we’d wager that this guy will play no small role in the matter, putting him in line to hoist another individual award named after a Celtics legend.
Meanwhile, oh what an insane three years it has been for the Warriors (53-29, 3rd in Western Conference), who have seen things come full circle as they return to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2019. Indeed, the last time they advanced to this stage served as the horrific ending of their dynastic run of five consecutive Finals births and three O’Brien Trophies; in a 4-2 defeat to the Raptors, the Dubs watched helplessly as both (two-time Finals MVP) Kevin Durant (Achilles) and (All-Star sharpshooter) Klay Thompson (ACL) suffered catastrophic injuries, depriving them of two pillars of the franchise moving forward. With the former departing for Brooklyn in Free Agency and the latter sidelined for the entirety of the ensuing campaign, Golden State limped to the worst record in the Association (15-50), as (two-time MVP) Steph Curry (25.5 PTS, 43.7% FG, 38.0% 3FG, 92.3% FT, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST, 1.3 STL, 21.4 PER) missed all but five games with a broken bone in his right hand. Unfortunately, the next season would prove to be only marginally better, as Thompson (20.4 PTS, 42.9% FG, 38.5% 3FG, 90.2% FT, 3.9 REB, 2.8 AST, 0.5 STL, 16.7 PER) suffered a torn Achilles months before the opener, leaving Curry to carry the club throughout a 39-33 campaign which ended with back-to-back losses in the play-in tournament. While missing out on the playoffs in consecutive years was indeed a setback for the franchise, the good work that (Head Coach) Steve Kerr and (General Manager) Bob Meyers performed would lay the foundation to their trek back to the mountaintop, for there was a WEALTH of internal growth happening in San Francisco, though the world wouldn’t notice it until these last few months. In a season in which the triumvirate of Curry, Thompson, and (versatile Forward) Draymond Green (7.5 PTS, 52.5% FG, 29.6% 3FG, 65.9% FT, 7.3 REB, 7.0 AST, 11.3 STL, 1.1 BLK, 14.3 PER) managed to start just ONE game together due their various injury stints, the Warriors reached this point on the development of the more unheralded members of the rotation. First, (young Guard) Jordan Poole (18.5 PTS, 44.8% FG, 36.4% 3FG, 92.5% FT, 3.4 REB, 4.0 AST, 0.8 STL, 16.1 PER) went from the G-League to essentially becoming the “Fifth Beetle” in a short period of time, logging 18.4 points on 53.1% shooting from the field, including 39.3% from three, 3.2 rebounds and 4.5 assists in these playoffs. The youngster was indispensable while Kerr was bringing Curry (fresh off a foot injury) off the bench in the first round against the Nuggets, while becoming their most prolific option off the bench afterward. Then there is the often-overlooked Kevon Looney (6.0 PTS, 57.1% FG, 60.0% FT, 7.3 REB, 2.0 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.6 BLK, 15.7 PER), who continues to selflessly do whatever is asked of him; the veteran Center played sparingly in this postseason until the Western Finals, where his size and length proved to be an absolute asset against the Mavericks, posting averages of 10.6 points on 70.6% shooting, 10.6 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, including a career-high twenty-one points in a comeback 126-117 victory in Game Two. Last, but surely not least, is (veteran Swingman) Andrew Wiggins (17.2 PTS, 46.6% FG, 39.3% 3FG, 63.4% FT, 4.5 REB, 2.2 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.7 BLK, 15.0 PER), who proved to be the x-factor against Dallas. Acquired via trade midway through the 2019-2020 campaign, the former No. One Pick (2014) has flourished within the Dubs’ culture; going from being the top offensive threat for a bumbling franchise to being the third to fourth option on a perennial contender has been precisely what the doctor ordered for Wiggins. A career 33.2% shooter from the perimeter prior to his arrival, he netted a career-high 39.3% on his attempts from deep in lieu of being selected to his first All-Star team. That success has followed him into his first playoff run, particularly against Dallas where he was a force on both ends of the hardwood, averaging 20.7 points on 47.1% shooting and 38.9% from three, along with 7.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists, all the while spending a wealth of time defending Luka Doncic, whom he posterized in what was arguably the most iconic moment of this postseason. Simply put, this is the kind of quality depth that Kerr enjoyed during the early stages of their dynastic run and given the week they’ve now had off to prepare for the Finals, it appears that they’ll be the healthiest that they’ve been in at any point of this season. (Veteran Swingman) Otto Porter Jr. (8.2 PTS, 46.4% FG, 37.0% 3FG, 80.3% FT, 5.7 REB, 1.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.5 BLK, 15.9 PER) has missed three games with an ailing foot, while (2015 Finals MVP) Andre Iguodala (4.0 PTS, 38.0% FG, 23.0% 3FG, 75.0% FT, 3.2 REB, 3.7 AST, 0.9 STL, 0.7 BLK, 12.3 PER) has yet to participate in these playoffs due to a pinched nerve in his neck, with both expected to make their return in this series, alongside (backup Guard) Gary Payton II (7.1 PTS, 61.6% FG, 35.8% 3FG, 60.3% FT, 3.5 REB, 0.9 AST, 1.4 STL, 17.8 PER), who has been sidelined since the Western Semifinals after breaking a bone in his elbow on a controversial foul against the Grizzlies. Needless to say, the addition of this triumvirate of reserves will go a long way towards bolstering a unit that ranked second in Defensive Efficiency (106.6) behind Boston. And speaking of their opponent’s staunch play on that end of the hardwood, keep an eye on how the Warriors contend with their switching on screens, for this will likely be the key to victory in this series. Historically, this is a team that has struggled against defenses who switch, and thus far in the playoffs they haven’t run into that particular tactic very often; the Dubs have seen switches on 31.5% of their possessions, which ranks ninth out of sixteen playoff teams. What this does is stymie the fluidity that they’ve come to be known for, with a 2018 meeting with the Rockets in the Western Finals proving to be the greatest example; Golden State was held below ninety-five points in back-to-back games in that series with an average of just 16.0 assists along the way, leaving Kerr to rely upon the individual talent of the aforementioned Durant to search for one-on-one mismatches to eventually win the series. Obviously, Durant is no longer on this team, which means that they’ll have to rely more upon Curry’s off-ball movement and the playmaking skills of Green to circumvent those tactics. Their success in doing so will likely reflect in how well they take care of the basketball, for as we’ve seen throughout the last eight years, turnovers have been and continue to be their biggest weakness. Sure, Kerr has lamented that this is a byproduct of how they play the game, and while he’s correct in that statement, it has also put them in a compromised position at various points of this postseason. The Warriors have turned over the rock on 14.8 occasions in the playoffs, but in their five losses have seen that number inflate to 16.3 turnovers parlaying into 20.8 points for their opponent, which is the fifth-highest figure in the field. Of course, a lot of this comes down to Curry, with just about everything that happens offensively coming off his movement with and without the ball in his hands. Earlier, we covered how much success that the Celtics have had against the two-time scoring champion, though there is a caveat to be found. Of their seven losses, the Dubs were without Curry for two of them, while their most recent encounter with Boston, saw the eight-time All-Star total just three points on 1-of-4 shooting (25.0%) in little over thirteen minutes of action before heading to the locker room with a bruised heel, marking the last time that we would see him in the regular season. In the other seven meetings, Curry was as prolific as ever in averaging 31.4 points on 50.0% shooting, including 49.4% from deep, along with 4.5 assists in comparison to 3.4 turnovers. Furthermore, in the first of their two encounters during this past regular season, he totaled thirty points though did so on just 8-of-21 shooting (38.1%) with more turnovers (6) than assists (4).