Our 2022 NFL Preview rolls on as we travel north to Western New York, where the Bills are gearing up for what is for all intents and purposes a Super Bowl or Bust campaign. Armed with one of the most prominent Quarterbacks in the league and its reigning top-ranked Defense, (Head Coach) Sean McDermott’s troops certainly have the talent to make good on those expectations. However, they’ll need to prove that they can in fact close the deal, for as we saw in their final appearance, getting a single stop is much easier said than done. Have they improved enough to get over the hump, or are they primed to take a step backward? Read on, folks…
What Lies Beyond Elite?
Few Quarterbacks in the history of the NFL have managed to make the massive developmental leaps that Josh Allen has made throughout the first four years of his career, having gone from a questionable small-school prospect that many felt was a reach at seventh overall, to arguably the most formidable player at his position. Indeed, as a rookie with the Bills, the Wyoming product struggled to complete a mediocre 52.8% of his passes with more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (10). Despite improving marginally as a sophomore (58.8%, 20 TD, 9 INT) and leading Buffalo to just their second playoff appearance since the turn of the century, there were still plenty of skeptics. However, Year Three is when he officially kicked in the door, completing nearly 70.0% of his attempts for 4,544 yards and thirty-seven touchdowns opposed to just ten interceptions, while rushing for another 421 yards and eight scores. That last feature of his game was expanded upon even more in 2021, as Allen rushed for a career-high 763 yards and NFL-best 6.3 yards per carry, while continuing to evolve as a passer with 4,407 yards, thirty-six touchdowns. McDermott, (General Manager) Brandon Beane, and (Offensive Coordinator) Brian Daboll were all MAJOR factors in his growth, effectively drawing up the modern blueprint on how to develop a young Quarterback in today’s NFL. Bolstering the Offensive Line, utilizing his size and athleticism in creative ways, and adding the likes of (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Stefon Diggs to the Receiving Corps has played sizable roles in his growth, leading many to wonder what will be the next step for the 26-year-old? At a sturdy 6′-5″, 240 lbs, sporting a cannon for a right arm, and the feet of a dancing bear, the sky is indeed the limit for Allen, but there is a looming question mark that will certainly bear watching as the season unfolds…
A Change of Hands
As we touched upon earlier, one of the biggest factors in Allen’s evolution into one of the prominent Quarterbacks in the NFL was the aforementioned Daboll, whose work with his former pupil could not be overstated. Nobody else called plays during the first four years of his career, and the longtime Offensive Coordinator reaped the rewards of that success, parlaying that into his first Head Coaching job, joining the New York Giants back in February. Replacing Daboll in the booth is Ken Dorsey, who spent the last three seasons as Allen’s Quarterbacks Coach in Buffalo. A former Quarterback himself, Dorsey clearly has a good working relationship with Allen, otherwise we highly doubt that he would have been the one to be promoted to OC if that wasn’t the case. However, this is the first time that the 41-year-old has ever been a Coordinator in the NFL, which leads one to wonder if there will be any growing pains to come. The Bills Offense churned out 28.4 points per game (3rd Overall) on 391.7 total yards (5th Overall) last season, though they did receive criticism for being a bit overly reliant on Allen’s skills, particularly as a rusher. Balance has been a key term in Western New York over the past two years, with McDermott looking for an alternative to throwing the football so often, especially when the winds start blowing and the temperature drops come December. At 44.9 yards per game, Allen accounted for nearly 35.0% of their rushing offense in 2021, and with over a quarter of a billion dollars owed to him over the next six years, there is a prevailing feeling that they would like to alleviate some of that pressure from his shoulders. And this is where Dorsey is going to earn his money, for simply keeping the proverbial machine running may not be enough, for with such talent at his disposal the pressure will be on him to find new ways to make them even more effective, and that will start with the ground game.
That Super Bowl Touch
With all this talk of Quarterbacks, Offenses, and Playcallers, the reason that Buffalo’s season ended in the AFC Division Round is because they simply couldn’t get enough stops. Granted, they were battling one of the most explosive attacks in NFL history, but their inability to make a play against the Chiefs in last January’s 42-36 overtime epic served as a referendum that there was still work to be done before they could be branded a serious Super Bowl contender. Now, we understand that McDermott’s troops finished atop the league in both points allowed (17.0) and total defense (272.8) last year, but a deeper look into the numbers will reveal that they utterly dismantled the poorer offenses that they faced, of which there were many. AFC East foes Miami, New England, and New York all finished in the bottom third in total offense and were relegated to an average of 12.1 points and a paltry 189.6 total yards. Furthermore, they held the likes of the fledgling Texans, Saints, and Jaguars to a combined FIFTEEN points. However, things fell apart against the Chiefs, with the pass-rush failing to get home and the Secondary getting roasted after (All-Pro Cornerback) Tre’Davious White bit the dust with a torn ACL late in the campaign. And it’s with that said that Beane opened up the checkbook and signed (former All-Pro Edge) Von Miller, fresh off a championship run with the Rams. Sure, inking a 33-year-old who has had some injury concerns in recent years to a six-year, $120 million contract is dicey, but further inspection of the deal will reveal that only half of it is guaranteed with a litany of bonuses and escalators present to potentially meet the total amount. Give how last season ended, it’s clear that McDermott and Beane are convinced that this Defense needed a veteran with championship experience, and there wasn’t a better one on the market than Miller; a two-time Super Bowl Champion, and not to mention Super Bowl 50 MVP, the eight-time Pro-Bowler has logged 115.5 sacks throughout his career along with twenty-six fumbles, while adding another 10.5 and three in the playoffs. If there is still some gas left in the proverbial tank, then there is a good chance that the guy will have a positive effect on Buffalo’s young Defense, which in turn would make them a much more complete group and a serious contender to bring the franchise its first Lombardi Trophy.
Projected Finish: 13-4
There is an argument to be made that if the Bills did in fact survive their epic affair at Arrowhead last January, then they very well could have found themselves in their first Super Bowl since the early 90’s with an opportunity to win their first championship in franchise history. This season will be all about leveling up, and by and large that seems to be the case in Buffalo, where they remain the cream of the crop in what should be an improved AFC East. If they’re healthy come Winter, anything short of an appearance in the AFC Championship Game will be deemed as a disappointment.