Our 2022 NFL Preview travels from Mile High to the Motor City, where the Lions desperately attempt to get out of the opening blocks in this, the second year of what is proving to be a lengthy rebuilding project. It wasn’t until early December until Detroit enjoyed their first victory under the new regime, as (Head Coach) Dan Campbell & Co suffered a series of heartbreaking defeats en route to securing that first win, finishing a moderate 3-3 down the stretch en route to a 3-13-1 record. Has this group done enough in the offseason to take a step forward? Has Campbell finally changed the culture for the better? Let’s take a look at what we can expect out of Motown this Fall…
Jared Goff: Act Three
To say that the career of (veteran Quarterback) Jared Goff (pictured) has been peculiar thus far seems like an understatement, as the 27-year-old has endured more ups and downs than most high-profile passers of his experience. Selected No. One Overall by the Rams back in 2016, Goff struggled mightily as a rookie, only to find great success under the tutelage of (Head Coach) Sean McVay in year no. two, eventually leading Los Angeles to an appearance in Super Bowl LIII. Unfortunately, he was rather brutal in that affair, striking the match of a flame that would see his relationship with McVay deteriorate irrevocably, leading to his benching in the 2020 playoffs and trade to the Lions later that Spring. Unsurprisingly, the former Pro-Bowler failed to impress in his first season in Motown, proving incapable of elevating a team bereft of much talent around him, leaving his future in Detroit precarious at best. After all, Goff is 45-37-1 as a starter in the NFL, but a damning 3-17-1 under any coach other than McVay. With that said, the aforementioned Campbell has been VERY supportive of his Quarterback, whom he hopes will be more comfortable within his surroundings in his second year with the franchise. Hell, (General Manager) Brad Holmes even refrained from drafting a Quarterback in last April’s NFL Draft and refused to listen to offers for other passers in an unprecedented offseason full of QB movement. Then again, this guy was always destined to be their starter purely from a financial standpoint, with Goff set to count $31.5 million against the cap while carrying a dead cap hit of $41.15 million if he were to be cut or traded, which is an untenable prospect for any team. There is, however, a potential out after this season, with the dead cap hit dropping to a far more reasonable $10 million if he were released, which sets the table for a true make-or-break year for the much-maligned signal-caller, who will once again be given every opportunity to convince Holmes and Campbell that he is the answer at Quarterback moving forward… for better or for worse.
Prospect Envy
One of the many reasons that poor franchises remain poor franchises is an inability to draft and develop talent despite the system being designed to help them do precisely that. Bad teams get early picks to select the best talent with hopes of turning their fortunes around, yet many continue to fail at this simple, yet crucial part of team building. This, bring us to the Lions, who have repeatedly swung and missed despite picking in the top third of the NFL Draft virtually every season; since 2013, they’ve enjoyed SIX picks within the top-10, including each of the last four Drafts, and have managed to miss more often than not. With a record of 17-46-2 over the past four seasons, Detroit simply isn’t getting enough out of its picks, particularly in the first round where it has been such a mixed bag of late. Back in 2019, they chose to buck conventional wisdom and take (Tight End) T.J. Hockenson at eighth overall, with the pass-catcher turning into a solid, if unspectacular playmaker, receiving a Pro-Bowl nod a year later. In 2020, they selected (Cornerback) Jeffrey Okudah with the third overall pick, only to see him active for TEN games in two years due to a litany of injuries. Fast forward twelve months, and (Left Tackle) Penei Sewell was picked seventh overall in 2021, becoming a fixture on Goff’s blindside with sixteen starts. And now we come to (Edge) Aidan Hutchinson (pictured), the hometown product out of Michigan, whom the Lions chose despite there being a wealth of other premium pass-rushers available. The main criticism of Hutchinson coming out of Ann Arbor was that he was a “high floor player”, meaning that while he’ll probably be productive, he’s unlikely to enjoy much growth over his career. Will he ever be a 10+ sack guy? That’s certainly debatable, but when you’re selecting at second and third overall, these players MUST develop into pillars of the franchise. Interestingly, Homles and Campbell didn’t add many new faces in free agency, which is a sign that they believe in internal growth, which again is where drafting and development comes into play. These two figures need to prove to ownership that they’re better than their predecessors at that part of the job, otherwise their respective seats will get increasingly warm…
Changing the Culture
Say what you will about Dan Campbell (pictured) as a football coach, but it’s impossible not to respect the man after his impassioned, tearful press conference following yet another heartbreaking defeat in a series of them last Fall. Given the prolonged losing in Detroit over the last two decades, a quick turnaround was never in the cards, for this is a franchise that has been in dire need of serious structural change for quite some time. Since the turn of the century, the Lions own a winning percentage of just .345, with only five winning seasons and three postseason appearances to their credit, and not to mention the first winless campaign in NFL history. Sure, Jim Schwartz and Jim Caldwell put together some competitive teams under their watch, though they are often romanticized due to how dreadful those that came before (and after) were. Upon Caldwell’s dismissal in 2018, ownership attempted to turn the franchise into Patriots West to miserable results, as Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia oversaw a revolution that repeatedly failed to launch, amassing a 14-33-1 record along the way. And now it’s up to Campbell and Holmes to destroy and rebuild, with the 46-year-old former Tight End’s warm attitude and tenacious work ethic appearing to be the antithesis to the cold and cerebral Patricia. Now, we’re not debating which personality works better, for there are plenty of examples of both getting the job done, but the question is whether or not the big fella is in over his head with such a difficult project. MANY coaches have crashed and burned in Motown over the last twenty years, and the probability is high that this guy will suffer the same fate, and it will be a shame if that does in fact come to pass. In the meantime, Campbell and his coaching staff will continue to nurture the talent on hand and relentlessly work to change the culture, for there is no doubt in our minds that he believes that it can be done, though it’s everyone else in the building that we’re worried about.
Projected Finish: 6-11
Call us crazy, but we have a feeling that Campbell and the Lions figured something out down the stretch of 2021, and it wouldn’t be outrageous to believe that they’ll continue that trajectory into the Fall. The NFC North isn’t nearly as imposing as many of its counterparts, and while they don’t have the requisite talent and depth to compete with the better teams in the league, they should be able to matchup with the remainder of a fairly soft schedule. Doubling your win total from the previous year usually means a division title or at the least a postseason appearance, but in this case it’s simply six wins, which is progress all the same for Detroit.
