Our 2022 NFL Preview takes a turn back to the Lone Star State, where the Texans hope to be entering the second phase of their ambitious rebuild despite yet another change in leadership. After spending his first season mired within the Deshaun Watson Saga, (General Manager) Nick Caserio enters year no. two with the clarity of knowing that his franchise’s part in the matter has been resolved, trading the Pro-Bowl Quarterback away to the Browns in exchange for a hefty cache of draft picks that could very well jumpstart this project. However, there is still a dearth of talent on hand, while the team will be led by its THIRD different Head Coach in as many years, as Lovie Smith was promoted from Defensive Coordinator following a lengthy search. Will Houston show signs of life this Fall? Read on, ladies and gentlemen…
The Do-Over
Just over eighteen months ago, the Texans decided to completely remake their organization in hiring (longtime Patriots Director of Player Personnel) Nick Caserio (pictured) as General Manager, who in turn inherited quite the mess in Southern Texas. Star players demanded to be traded, their draft capital was left in shambles due to the previous regime, and the ongoing controversy surrounding the aforementioned Watson ensured that the venerable executive would have his work cut out for him. Of course, Watson never played a single down of football for the franchise in 2021 as the litigations continued to play out in court regarding a staggering TWENTY-FOUR civil suits centered on sexual misconduct, while Houston reportedly settled THIRTY more out of court. On the gridiron, Caserio swung and miss on his first head coaching hire, settling on David Culley; a curious choice to say the least, the 66-year-old spent his first time ever as Head Coach overseeing a veritable dumpster fire culminating in a miserable 4-13 record. Though it was hardly surprising (yet no less disappointing), Culley was relieved of his duties not long after the season finale, leading to yet another coaching search courtesy of Caserio. Unfortunately, with Watson’s status still up in the air as of last January, none of the Texans’ primary targets would take the job, leaving the General Manager to make another uninspiring hire in promoting Lovie Smith form his position at Defensive Coordinator. Now, we understand full well that the 64-year-old has a wealth of head coaching experience, owning an 89-87 record over eleven years with the Bears and Buccaneers, even leading the former to an appearance in Super Bowl XLI, but the bloom left his proverbial rose quite some time ago, for he hasn’t enjoyed a winning season in the NFL since 2012. Is he highly respected? Absolutely. Does he own more experience than his predecessor? Unquestionably. Is his beard the most impressive in the sport? HELL YES. However, it’s difficult envisioning him making much progress with THIS kind of team at THIS stage of a rebuild. After all, the general feeling is that he’s only in place because literally NOBODY else would take the job, which unfortunately makes it highly probable that his time with the club will be limited.
Playing with House Money
As we stated earlier, the Watson Saga hung over the Texans organization like a black cloud, effectively paralyzing them in a number of ways. With the club effectively telling the Quarterback to “stay home”, they seriously debilitated their product on the field, while his ongoing legal status made it impossible to deal him away prior to the trade deadline. Caserio acquired (veteran journeyman) Tyrod Taylor in the offseason to serve as a stopgap, though the 33-year-old would last just three games before a hamstring injury thrusted his rookie understudy, Davis Mills (pictured), into the fray. All things considered; the Stanford product handled himself well, ultimately earning the full-time job after putting together a respectable season in which he had completed 66.8% of his passes for 2,664 yards on 5.78 net yards per attempt, with sixteen touchdowns in comparison to ten interceptions, en route to posting a 2-9 record as starter. However, he really started to find his footing down the stretch, for over the final four games of the regular season, his completion percentage rose to 68.8%, while averaging 231.7 yards on an improved 7.2 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns opposed to a pair of interceptions. Furthermore, Houston went 2-2 in those outings, which included a surprising 41-29 upset of the Chargers. Now it’s a question of what kind of leap he can make in his second year under center. The aforementioned Smith hired Pep Hamilton as his Offensive Coordinator, with the longtime assistant having a history with Stanford Quarterbacks (I.E. Andrew Luck), which should make for an interesting partnership moving forward. The 2021 third round pick has a real opportunity to cement his status as the Texans’ franchise passer at this stage of their rebuild, for in receiving so many draft picks in return for Watson, Caserio & Co have plenty of capital to build around him if they see fit to do so. Armed with two first-rounders in last April’s NFL Draft, including third overall, Houston ultimately relented from taking a signal-caller in a draft class that was admittedly short on difference makers at the position, which is another sign of their confidence in the 23-year-old.
Building Blocks
We touched upon the cache of draft capital that Caserio has been building in Houston, and needless to say, it’s impressive. If you are tasked with rebuilding a franchise, it’s nigh impossible to do it without hitting on more than a few draft picks and having a plethora of them at your disposal will only increase your chances of success. Though it took longer than they would have liked, the deal that sent Watson to Cleveland netted a sizable bounty for the Texans, including THREE first round picks (2022, 2023, and 2024), along with a third rounder (2023) and a fourth (2022). That makes this team well-positioned to become prime movers over the next two NFL Drafts, affording Caserio the flexibility to navigate the board, while also making the franchise MUCH more attractive to available coaches, which as we covered has NOT been the case over the last two years. And it’s with that said that the longtime executive got down to business in this past draft, utilizing his FIVE picks in the first three rounds to infuse the roster with some sorely needed youth and athleticism. At third overall they selected (Cornerback) Derek Stingley Jr. (pictured) out of LSU, while adding (versatile Safety) Jalen Pitre out of Baylor in an attempt to bolster one of the worst Secondaries in the league. Houston allowed 26.6 points per game last year (27th Overall), along with 242.2 passing yards (23rd Overall) on a dreadful 7.1 net yards per attempt (30th Overall). Stingley was universally praised for his work as a true freshman for the 2019 National Champions, snaring SIX interceptions with fifteen pass breakups, but was relegated to just ten games over the next two seasons thanks to injuries and chaos within the program, with his play proving wildly erratic. Pitre on the other hand, was a jack of all trades in Waco last season, totaling 18.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, three forced fumbles, a pair of interceptions, and seven deflected passes. Within Smith’s preferred Tampa-2 scheme, it’s easy to envision both Defensive Backs starting from day one. The Texans also added (rangy Linebacker) Christian Harris out of Alabama, bringing even more speed and athleticism to a unit that has been in dire need of it.
Projected Finish: 5-12
Even with the Watson saga behind them, it’s difficult to envision the Texans improving that much over their previous 4-13 campaign. While Smith is an upgrade over his predecessor and Mills performed well enough to earn a full season as the starting Quarterback, this is a roster that still lacks depth and talent at a number of positions. Though we expect them to be competitive, it’s our opinion that they are still a year (or perhaps two) away from developing into a truly consistent group.
