Our 2022 NFL Preview travels south to the Big Easy, where the Saints look to start a new chapter after parting ways with one of the true pillars of their franchise for the second year in a row. After sixteen largely successful seasons in New Orleans, Sean Payton finally stepped down as Head Coach, with his longtime Defensive Coordinator, Dennis Allen, rising to replace him. Will the defense continue to be dominant as he changes offices? Will the offense bounce back after being utterly decimated by injuries? Let’s listen to what kind of music will be coming out of Nawlins…
Jameis: Act Three
After fifteen years of breaking just about every passing record to be had, (longtime Quarterback) Drew Brees called it a career following the 2020 campaign, leaving the subject of his succession open for competition last Fall. By and large, calling it a competition would be overstating the matter, as Jameis Winston ascended from understudy to starter in relatively short order, and made good on the decision to make him QB1 in New Orleans. In the first seven games, the former no. one overall pick performed very well, completing 59.0% of his passes for an average of 167.1 yards per game on 6.40 net yards per attempt, with fourteen touchdowns in comparison to just three interceptions, all the while earning a 5-2 record in the process. While the yardage was far from prolific, the improved decision-making spoke volumes for a guy who had been ridiculed for his poor choices and inaccuracy prior to arriving in the Big Easy. Through the first five years of his career, Winston committed an NFL-worst 111 turnovers, including a staggering THIRTY interceptions in 2019, leading to his unceremonious benching and departure from Tampa Bay three years ago. Indeed, it appears that spending two years within the aforementioned Payton’s system has reeducated the signal-caller, who looked like a completely different player before his campaign came to an abrupt end when he tore his ACL midway through Week Eight. Though Allen and (General Manager) Mickey Loomis dabbled in the Deshaun Watson Sweepstakes in the Spring, Winston appears to be the starter heading into the Fall, and it will be interesting to see if he can maintain the upward trajectory that exhibited during the first half of 2021. With Payton, who also served as primary playcaller, retiring, we don’t envision the system changing much as his longtime lieutenant, Pete Carmichael takes over those duties, meaning that the 28-year-old should hit the ground running. Bigger, more athletic, and sporting a much more powerful arm than Brees, Winston’s potential in this offense is very high, particularly when you consider that his supporting cast should be MUCH better than it was last year, as reinforcements were brought in over the offseason, and a certain Pro-Bowl Receiver returns from a lengthy absence…
Strength in Numbers
Last season was quite the anomaly for the Saints, who despite annually sporting one of the most prolific passing attacks in the NFL under Payton’s reign, slumped to dead-last in the league, averaging a meek 202.2 yards per game (32nd Overall). While we can’t chalk that decline up to Brees’ retirement alone, the offense did shift to a more run-oriented approach, though that was largely due to Winston’s injury, (utility QB) Taysom Hill’s time under center, and an utter lack of weapons in the receiving Corps. Coming into 2022, we wouldn’t expect that to be the case this Fall, as the Receiving Corps appears to be LOADED in Winston’s return to action. First and foremost, there were signs that Winston was really getting comfortable within the offense, averaging a respectable 231.2 yards in the four games leading up to his injury, before completely tailing off over the second half of the schedule. Word out Saints Camp is that he’s moving well and practicing without restraints, which is good news for the franchise, who are hoping to hear comparable news soon in regard to (former Pro-Bowler) Michael Thomas (pictured), who missed all of last season and most of the summer rehabbing from multiple surgeries on his ankle. Back in 2019, Thomas led the NFL in both receptions (149) and receiving yards (1,725), though was relegated to just seven games in 2020 before suffering said malady. His presence and route-running should be a boon to his Quarterback, though Allen and Loomis made sure to purchase some insurance in the event that his return should be slow to gain traction. New Orleans signed (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Jarvin Landry in free agency, and then added another pass-catcher, Chris Olave with the eleventh overall pick in last Spring’s NFL Draft. The Ohio State product is the kind of vertical threat that has been missing from this attack for years and could create some serious fireworks with Winston hurling the football downfield this Fall. Oh, and if that isn’t enough, the Saints still have some dude named Alvin Kamara in the Backfield; the versatile Pro-Bowler carried too much of the load last season but should be all the more dangerous with a revitalized supporting cast around him. No Tailback has hauled in more passes (373) over the past five years than Kamara, who looks to rebound from a campaign in which he turned in career-lows in yards per carry (3.7), receptions (47), and receiving yards (439).
The Defensive Shift
While we commonly associate the Saints during the Brees/Payton Era with a prolific, surgical passing game, there has been a gradual shift towards the defensive side of the football over the past few years, where Dennis Allen has overseen a sorely needed renovation of a unit that was once among the league’s worst. Indeed, New Orleans ranked twenty-fifth or worse in points allowed on six occasions between 2006 and 2016, while finishing twenty-third or worse eight times in total defense during that period of time, which correlated with a 7-9 record in five of those seasons. After finishing next-to-last in total defense in his first year as Defensive Coordinator (2015), Allen saw a gradual progression in the Big Easy, with his troops ranking twenty-seventh, seventeenth, fourteenth, eleventh, fourth, and seventh in the following seasons. Last year alone, they yielded just 19.7 points per game (4th Overall) on 318.3 total yards (7th Overall), including 224.8 yards against the pass (14th Overall) on 6.0 net yards per attempt (12th Overall) with eighteen interceptions (6th Overall) and forty-six sacks (8th Overall), while permitting only 93.5 yards versus the run (4th Overall) on a league-low 3.7 yards per carry (1st Overall). And thus, the 49-year-old was promoted to Head Coach following Payton’s retirement, though it remains to be seen if he will continue to call plays on defense, as Kris Richard and Ryan Nielsen will assume his former role jointly. One thing that hasn’t changed on this unit is the talent on hand, which is nothing short of considerable; (Pro-Bowlers) Cameron Jordan, Marshon Lattimore, Demario Davis are among the NFL’s best at their respective positions, while the healthy return of (young Edge) Marcus Davenport should pack even more punch in the trenches. Though there are questions about at Safety following the departures of Marcus Williams and Malcolm Jenkins, Allen and Loomis did well to replace them with the duo of Tyrann Mathieu (pictured) and Marcus Maye. Mathieu, in particular should be one to watch, with the Louisiana native returning home to provide his leadership, versatility, and playmaking skills to an already formidable group. We’ll see if he’s lost a step at the age of thirty, but if he can prove to be the wild card that he was in Kansas City, then this could very well be an upgrade for the Saints.
Projected Finish: 10-7
After a down years littered by injury and COVID, the Saints seem primed for a rebound in 2022. Winston looked promising prior to tearing his ACL, and with a vastly improved Receiving Corps there is the potential for fireworks on this side of the football in New Orleans. If the offense takes off and the defense continues to rank among the league’s best then this team can absolutely challenge in not just the NFC South, but the NFC at large, particularly with a schedule that is far from difficult over its first half.
