Our 2022 NFL Preview travels westward to Santa Clara, where the 49ers hope that a change at Quarterback will help them ascend to Super Bowl contenders. With that said, after coming up short in Super Bowl LIV and advancing to the NFC Championship Game last January, the argument that this team is already Lombardi-caliber is strong, though (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan and (General Manager) John Lynch clearly feels different about the matter, with (Sophomore Quarterback) Trey Lance set to take over for the incumbent Jimmy Garoppolo, who at the moment is still on the active roster. After spending much of the offseason keeping the majority of their stars in house, will San Francisco manage to move Jimmy G before the start of the regular season, or will they keep him as insurance in the event that Lance crashes and burns? These are indeed interesting times for the Niners, as we take a trip to the Bay for a closer look…
The Future is Now
After making no secret of their intentions of upgrading the Quarterback position following their narrow defeat to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV, the Niners made waves in the 2021 NFL Draft when they maneuvered their way up to the third overall pick, selecting Trey Lance (pictured) out of North Dakota State. Needless to say, this was indeed a ballsy move from San Fran’s brass, who moved heaven and earth to pick a kid who was viewed by many as the ultimate project. Not only did Lance ply his trade for the Bison, an FCS powerhouse that has a recent history of sending talent to the NFL, he effectively missed his entire junior campaign thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, eventually opting out after starting the season opener. Starting experience has long been one of the many prerequisites for the league when evaluating incoming Quarterbacks, and Lance made just nineteen in three years at NDSU. And it’s with that said, that he saw very little action during his rookie season with the 49ers, appearing in six contests (two of which were starts) completing 41-of-71 passes for 603 yards, five touchdowns, and a pair of interceptions, while rushing for another 168 yards and a score on thirty-eight carries. Possessing a rifle for a right arm, and not to mention the athleticism and mobility that the aforementioned Garoppolo clearly lacks, the writing has been on the wall for quite some time that the 22-year-old would indeed supplant the veteran sooner rather than later. However, Shanahan though it best that he effectively redshirt in 2021 so that he could become more indoctrinated into the offense, though this has admittedly set up a bit of an awkward situation with his predecessor; with one preseason game in the books, Lance appears to have a better grasp on the playbook, completing 4-of-5 passes for ninety-two yards and a 76-yard touchdown strike against the Packers, while Garoppolo watched from the sidelines. The question though is how long the learning curve will be for Lance, for whether the club cares to admit it or not, the bar has been set rather high in part to the play of the man that he is replacing…
Gone, Jimmy Gone
Make no mistake, there is no Quarterback competition taking place in Santa Clara, for Shanahan and Lynch have made it crystal clear that the aforementioned Lance will be the 49ers’ starter this season. However, that leaves a rather large elephant in the room, as his predecessor, Jimmy Garoppolo (pictured), is still very much on the active roster. It’s a bit perplexing that in an unprecedented offseason that featured far more QB movement than we’re accustomed to seeing in the NFL, that the Niners were unable to move on from the 30-year-old passer. With that said, let’s take a moment to reflect on what Jimmy G has brought to the franchise, shall we? The first major acquisition of the Shanahan/Lynch era, Garoppolo arrived via trade with the Patriots midway through 2017 in exchange for a second-round pick, with the signal-caller immediately making his presence felt in leading his new team to a 5-0 record as the starter. Unfortunately, he would suffer a torn ACL just three games into his first full campaign in San Francisco. However, 2019 proved to be magical for both Quarterback and club, as he guided the 49ers to NFC West and NFC Championships, before falling short in that aforementioned Super Bowl LIV. With expectations high, 2020 was mired by injuries for Garoppolo and his teammates, who spiraled to a 6-10 finish in a loaded division. Finally, all parties bounced back in 2021, as the team returned to the playoffs and very nearly another Super Bowl, with the polarizing Quarterback once again playing no small role in their efforts. So, what do we make of Garoppolo, who while clearly limited at the position has proven to be nothing short of a winner? In five years with the franchise, he has completed 67.7% of his passes for an average of 242.7 yards per game on 7.38 net yards per attempt, with sixty-six touchdowns in comparison to thirty-eight interceptions, along with nine fourth quarter comebacks/game-winning drives. Furthermore, he is a stellar 35-16 as the starter (including playoffs), which equates to a .686-win percentage, opposed to a dreadful 8-28 (.222) behind any other Quarterbacks. With one year and $27.6 million remaining on his contract, it’s likely difficult for any potential suitor to be able to fit him under the salary cap, though that could change as team’s make more cuts in lieu of opening weekend. Unfortunately, there is still a reality in which the veteran could simply see out the remainder of his contract on the sidelines, which could prove damaging to both his career and the club overall.
Show Me the Money
While the situation at Quarterback has continued to play itself out, the storyline that was grabbing all the headlines in the spring was the contract saga of (All-Pro Receiver) Deebo Samuel (pictured). By and large, the 26-year-old was coming off a career campaign in which he became one of the most dynamic weapons in the NFL, posting personal-bests in a slew of categories, including receptions (77), receiving yards (1,405), and touchdowns (6), while leading the league with a whopping 18.2 yards per catch. However, with the Niners’ Backfield in shambles, Shanahan began utilizing the Wideout as a makeshift Tailback, as Samuel rushed for another 365 yards and eight scores on a robust 6.2 yards per carry, with the bulk of that production coming over the second half of the regular season. And thus, the Pro-Bowler decided to ask for a healthy raise, followed shortly by a demand to be traded, though Shanahan and Lynch quickly refused to deal him away under any circumstances. Credit to San Francisco’s brain trust for continuing to work out a new deal for a guy who had clearly outperformed his rookie contract, eventually ironing out a three-year, $71.55 million extension with over $58 million in guarantees and a number of escalators if he were to meet specific rushing benchmarks, which had been a sticking point during negotiations. The Niners have done an excellent job of getting these kinds of deals done before the preseason, having signed the likes of (Pro-Bowlers) George Kittle and Fred Warner to lucrative extensions in the past so that negotiations would not complicate matters during the regular season. Now, Samuel remains in house as the team makes the transition to the aforementioned Lance, whose development ca only be facilitated by talents such as this.
Projected Outcome: 11-6
After very nearly advancing to their second Super Bowl in three years, the 49ers have proven that they have built themselves into the kind of team that can compete under a variety of circumstances, particularly during a transition of power at Quarterback. While we certainly respect the work that Garoppolo has put in over the past five years in San Francisco, we feel that there is a reason that Shanahan and Lynch have been so dogged in their pursuit of a replacement, with Lance getting the opportunity to unlock this team’s true potential. However, expectations are high in Santa Clara, and there is a real possibility that this kid endures some growing pains in his first year as the starter.
